Choice of running mate

[Sivel]

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This is an interesting election, because for the first time no frontrunner is a Kikuyu or GEMA candidate. However, the political discourse is giving Mt. Kenya such an outsize importance. It's the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, where both candidates want a Mt. Kenya candidate for fear that if they don't choose one, and the other side does, they'll lose in the elections.

But I think this is the wrong strategy, because not only does Mt. Kenya have no potential Presidential candidate, they also have no serious candidate for DP that will be said to rally the voters for one side or the other. The people being proposed are all political minions with no broad appeal as national leaders. From Munya to Kenneth to Kuria to Gachagua, none of these can hold a candle to Kalonzo and Mudavadi who are name brands even in Mt Kenya.

I think the best strategy will be for Ruto to pick Mudavadi, and Raila to pick Kalonzo, then they fight for Mt. Kenya as individuals. By choosing Mudavadi, Ruto can rally more Luhyas to his side, since they will see their man has a potential to be DP. In 2013, Mudavadi got less votes than Raila because even though he was their son, voters were being strategic and knew he was going nowhere. Those same voters will see Ruto has a real chance, and with their son as running mate, can rally more around the coalition. Ruto already has most of Mt. Kenya with him without even the question of which DP he'll choose, so why not consolidate from regions where he has less support like Western?

For Raila, the same considerations apply. If he chooses a Mt. Kenya running mate, it will be a minion who won't bring votes, while scattering the strong Kamba bloc that voted him almost to a man, crucially because they were trying to put their son as number 2. If they give Kalonzo nothing of importance, all the Kamba votes will scatter. For Raila, either way, Mt. Kenya won't give him more than 30%, with a GEMA minion or not, so why not consolidate Kambas?

It will be a very interesting election where the DP might end up being a Mt. Kenya minion of no importance, while the more serious potentials from other tribes have to make do with sijui Chief Minister or a funny appointed position.

[Nowayhaha]

and people were thinking AntiGema sentiments are nolonger there.
We knew Raila would team up with Kalonzo. They lost in 2014 ,2017 and they will lose again in 2022.

[Sivel]

I'm a Gemanite, and I think this election should not have Kikuyus on any of the top tickets. That way pressure na chuki ituondokee. Plus it's interesting watching Raila having to campaign without Kikuyus as bogeymen, I wonder how many votes he'll lose due to a lack of Kikuyus to direct hate to.

and people were thinking AntiGema sentiments are nolonger there.
We knew Raila would team up with Kalonzo. They lost in 2014 ,2017 and they will lose again in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp.But reality is kikuyus especially are big elephant in the house and they will not agree not have dpork..so Ruto should stick with Gachagua....Western if madvd is picked will improve kidigoo but risk of losing gema is huge.If kalonzo was joining Ruto then Ruto would have risked giving him dpork...but baluhya are just unreliable so Ruto will play hard in gema..

[Sivel]

I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"

It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp

[RV Pundit]

Losing 5 percent of gema votes is equal to at least 1 percent nationally..Ruto margin of victory is narrow so really unless Uhuru make the propaganda he did in mululu that two tribes is too much Ruto will stick to gema dpork...Ruto is also very principled so if he promised gema it's done deal.

[RV Pundit]

I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"

It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp

it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely

[Sivel]

This could also be in Ruto's considerations. Martha is Mt. Kenya, and even though there's no votes she's adding, she makes a good compromise candidate
https://mobile.twitter.com/mwabilimwagodi/status/1502613682932662274

I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"

It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp

it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely

[audacityofhope]

This could also be in Ruto's considerations. Martha is Mt. Kenya, and even though there's no votes she's adding, she makes a good compromise candidate
https://mobile.twitter.com/mwabilimwagodi/status/1502613682932662274

I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"

It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp

it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely

There is a good reason Martha has announced early that she will be contesting Governorship, nothing more. Reason being she cannot team up with  WSR. Is a No! .....

@AoH told everyone on this forum, Kalonzo can never join Ruto. In politics we say there are no permanent enemies but that does not apply for two politicians' (Martha, Kalonzo) Both have broken relationship with one WSR which are Permanent. Martha can NEVER work with WSR. Her beef goes back to 2007 when across a table, she faced down Ruto (then in ODM) during PEV negotiations. You can only argue with me on this one if  you were too young in 2007 to understand. In this picture, a visibly enraged Martha shows her intensity of hatred at that time.

[RV Pundit]

Martha can only negotiate to become Kirinyanga senator - that Ruto can grant her - but governorship that is gone to Waiguru. I dont think anybody would consider him running mate - she doesnt have the temperament for such position - she is too mercurial in Migunasque way.

Alice Wahome would make good DPORK - but this still a man game - so it's down to either Gachagua for Ruto or maDVD in the extreme - if Ruto think GEMA would support him liwe liwalo.

On the other corner - I dont think Kalonzo accepted anything less than DPORK - he wont be able to sell it to Kamba nation. I think Munya and PK drunk water yesterday - I didnt see their faces - but they must have been mourning with Kalonzo.

[Sivel]

Central Kenya have remained steadfast with Ruto inspite of their supposed kingpin Uhuru's wishes. Why would choice of a running mate drive them to Raila? And which Kikuyu politician has such broad appeal that would make Kikuyus feel shortchanged if he's not chosen as DP?
I think Ruto should seriously consider Mudavadi, but of course after bringing his Mt. Kenya lieutenants on board with the decision. After all watu ni kuongea. It would be a masterstroke especially if Uhuru insists on a Kikuyu or Gideon as Raila DP. The fallout with Kambas would be legendary, I doubt they would support Raila a third time but for less.
The same negotiation should happen in Nairobi. Ruto needs to bring Tim Wanyonyi to his side, even if he'll run on Ford Kenya. Then he can use that as a grievance to bring Luhyas to him. Why does Uhuru think he can dictate the DP and Nairobi Governor? For Wanjiru and Sakaja he can negotiate other positions for them, again watu huongea.

Martha can only negotiate to become Kirinyanga senator - that Ruto can grant her - but governorship that is gone to Waiguru. I dont think anybody would consider him running mate - she doesnt have the temperament for such position - she is too mercurial in Migunasque way.

Alice Wahome would make good DPORK - but this still a man game - so it's down to either Gachagua for Ruto or maDVD in the extreme - if Ruto think GEMA would support him liwe liwalo.

On the other corner - I dont think Kalonzo accepted anything less than DPORK - he wont be able to sell it to Kamba nation. I think Munya and PK drunk water yesterday - I didnt see their faces - but they must have been mourning with Kalonzo.

[Dear Mami]

Who would be stupid enough to pick Gideon as a DP? Swivel, you got jokes, haven't you? I think for Azimio it's between Munya and Kaloi. PK, imo, would be a waste of the position. He can't pull in more Kyuk votes than Munya or Uhuru. At least Munya can get Meru votes unless KK pick another Meru to challenge him.

I think everyone is waiting for BBI to be overturned at Supreme Court. This time, I don't think Ruto will fight it because it will be a boon to both camps. They can promise MaDVD and Kaloi Prime Minister each.

[RV Pundit]

So if we look at the numbers - before we think strategy.
MaDVD alone really can affect part of Vihiga and Kakamega. Ruto had his game already in Kakamega.maDVD sort of doubled his votes
Weta largely affect Bungoma and Tranzoia - and Nairobi Bukusu. Ruto already had is game in Bukusu. Weta doubles his votes.
Weta bring more votes than MaDVD...because Bukusu are like 40 percent of Luhyas.
Weta has accepted his deal - to be National Speaker. He is not going to demand more.
UDA will be majority in parliament - so he almost shoe in as National Speaker plus maybe 1-2 ministers and other small stuff.

Now if we gave MaDVD DPORK - will Kenya Kwanza fortunes improve drastically in Luhyaland.
For now Raila is still getting almost 50 percent of Luhya votes...
If you check - Raila is getting votes in liwe liwalo Luhya subtribes that are historicaly close to Luos.
I doubt MaDVD even as PORK will influence say Busia sub tribes to vote Kenya Kwanza.
Those are "luhyas" named Awori, Atwoli, Adhiambo, odipo...they are more Luos than Luhya...like some Gusii named Odhieki etc
Making MaDVD PORK would add very little in votes...maybe improve Kenya Kwanza from 50-55 percent to 65-70 percent in Luhyaland
Luhya are not a tribe like Kambas - they are just motley collection of bantu speaking people in western provinces.
In terms of votes  - making maDVD PORK will add  about 1 percent of the national vote - maybe another 200 - 300K votes.

What maDVD will do is lessen the feeling by other kenyans that Kenya Kwanza is Kikuyu-Kalenjin domination of kenya politics.

Such propaganda is not going to fly in Kalenjin or kikuyu land - so basically you're about 40 percent of the total votes who dont give a damn.
Luos will vote Raila liwe liwalo
Such propaganda will only be effective in Luhya, Kambaland, Gusii and Coast.
If you remove Kambas - majority will vote Kalonzo anyway as DPORK - though I believe Ruto will do "suprisingly" well as fatigue and feeling Kalonzo got yet another raw deal sets in.

The propaganda is going to be effective in Luhya, Gusii and coast. Maybe in Maasailand and such areas but hakuna kura uko.
Gusii was long gone anyway because of Matiangi replacing Ruto as DPORK through executive order 1 of 2019- and the fallout from it.

Maybe it combined effect (which already factored in MOAS) is 3 percent loss for Ruto.

Now come the elephant in the house - GEMA.

GEMA combined have 22 percent in population - but about 28 percent when they register and vote really good.
Now it's going to be supressed - maybe 25-26 percent.

Now if Raila pick Kalonzo - and run with Kalenjin-Kikuyu propaganda - he will get those who accepted such propaganda in 2017/2013 - already factored.

If Ruto stick to GEMA - he built a fortress in GEMA as GEMA will see a clear path back to power - from Uhuru messy arrangment.

At the end of day - GEMA will be looking for their own interest.

They are not going to want back to power as soon as possible

So for now - If I was Ruto I stick with GEMA - maDVD can go drying - if he doesnt want the PMship because he is not going to get it anywhere else.

The little excitment from Luhyaland is not guranteed while GEMA are now very important for Ruto - if Kalonzo had signed to KK - GEMA would have been dispensable.

This election will now be decided by GEMA

Central Kenya have remained steadfast with Ruto inspite of their supposed kingpin Uhuru's wishes. Why would choice of a running mate drive them to Raila? And which Kikuyu politician has such broad appeal that would make Kikuyus feel shortchanged if he's not chosen as DP?
I think Ruto should seriously consider Mudavadi, but of course after bringing his Mt. Kenya lieutenants on board with the decision. After all watu ni kuongea. It would be a masterstroke especially if Uhuru insists on a Kikuyu or Gideon as Raila DP. The fallout with Kambas would be legendary, I doubt they would support Raila a third time but for less.
The same negotiation should happen in Nairobi. Ruto needs to bring Tim Wanyonyi to his side, even if he'll run on Ford Kenya. Then he can use that as a grievance to bring Luhyas to him. Why does Uhuru think he can dictate the DP and Nairobi Governor? For Wanjiru and Sakaja he can negotiate other positions for them, again watu huongea.

[Dear Mami]

I agree MaDVD is overrated. Looking at the Mizani poll, the only one truly delivering something is Wetangula. MaDVD still getting beaten in his back yard by Baba. I don't know why he's ranked higher than Wetangula. Cerelac baby. At least Kalonzo can deliver majority of his tribe. MaDVD is too overrated. Unless the Mizani figures are cooked. Why is he called Luhya kingpin? Seems Wetangula is at least Bukusu Kingpin. He's more indispensable than MaDVD.

[RV Pundit]

He is just good for the camera. He brings a calming effect. His influence really is on Maragolis - who are barely 50 percent of Vihiga and in part of Kakamega.

I agree MaDVD is overrated. Looking at the Mizani poll, the only one truly delivering something is Wetangula. MaDVD still getting beaten in his back yard by Baba. I don't know why he's ranked higher than Wetangula. Cerelac baby. At least Kalonzo can deliver majority of his tribe. MaDVD is too overrated. Unless the Mizani figures are cooked.

[Dear Mami]

PK and Martha Karua are another overrated pair. May look good on camera but will deliver net zero% votes.

Only people who can make a difference now in terms of position are Kalonzo, Munya, Kindiki. MaDVD has to stay put even if he doesn't get anything because of the optics. After a month of calling Raila names in public, Malala threats will not be taken seriously  Everyone knows they've nowhere else to go now. Even OKA is finished.

[RV Pundit]

I think the idea is to delay the naming as close to the deadline as possible.
Keep everyone hopefully
Kalonzo of course has to reveal to anxious kamba nation what he signed on again.
So he might pressure Raila to name him as DPORK in coalition documents.
If not - Kamba nation will revolt - the signs are already there in various opinion polls showing big RUto support

PK is useless - has no connection with voters - and Martha long lost their mojo - they both plundered in 2013 - if they had supported Uhuru - they would be shoe in now.

PK continues to PLUNDER - yesterday marked his death -  now he has scramble for governorship - where
Martha Karau also continues to play poker -

I dont think Raila has a choice to make - it hard to imagine Kalonzo accepting anything less than DPORK
So Munya drunk water.
Kindiki is tharaka - he is worse than Munya.

That leaves us basically with Ruto picking Gachagua or someone else in GEMA - with maDVD having outside chance...

PK and Martha Karua are another overrated pair. May look good on camera but will deliver net zero% votes.

Only people who can make a difference now in terms of position are Kalonzo, Munya, Kindiki. MaDVD has to stay put even if he doesn't get anything because of the optics. After a month of calling Raila names in public, Malala threats will not be taken seriously  Everyone knows they've nowhere else to go now. Even OKA is finished.

[RV Pundit]

This thread and it's replies capture the Raila choices if he has any yet.

50% of Mt. Kenya votes is still higher than 100% of Luo Nyanza votes. 50% of Luo votes is higher than 100% Kamba votes. It would turn logic on its head to have Raila Odinga run on the support and confidence of Mt. Kenya, and still bypass them to appoint Kalonzo as running mate.

— Steve Ogolla (@steveogollaw) March 13, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Meanwhile Ruto options

Meanwhile, DP Ruto may make all mistakes except one: appointing Musalia Mudavadi as running mate. Ruto enjoys solid support in Mt. Kenya. As he stretches his hand to reach out to Mudavadi supporters, he must not lose what is under his wings.

— Steve Ogolla (@steveogollaw) March 13, 2022

[Sivel]

I agree with you, what Mudavadi brings is respectability of the ticket more than numbers. I still feel that DP has already consolidated all that he can from Central, bypassing Uhuru. If Azimio candidate was anybody else, I agree Ruto's running mate would matter but in this case with Raila's candidacy, DP's GEMA votes are safe. Any GEMA running mate has has the same issue in my opinion, they are not adding much to Ruto's basket. And they are probably not going to leave for Azimio (I'm not sure about Meru though).
It will also avoid that talk of Mt Kenya and Kalenjin which usually tends to suppress support in other regions.
But anyway we're just armchair analysts, I'm sure they are looking at all those scenarios and will act accordingly. Plus I think all these issues will be properly negotiated so nobody feels shortchanged. Ruto has the advantage that he has yet to betray anyone politically so far, so his word is more trustworthy.

So if we look at the numbers - before we think strategy.
MaDVD alone really can affect part of Vihiga and Kakamega. Ruto had his game already in Kakamega.maDVD sort of doubled his votes
Weta largely affect Bungoma and Tranzoia - and Nairobi Bukusu. Ruto already had is game in Bukusu. Weta doubles his votes.
Weta bring more votes than MaDVD...because Bukusu are like 40 percent of Luhyas.
Weta has accepted his deal - to be National Speaker. He is not going to demand more.
UDA will be majority in parliament - so he almost shoe in as National Speaker plus maybe 1-2 ministers and other small stuff.

Now if we gave MaDVD DPORK - will Kenya Kwanza fortunes improve drastically in Luhyaland.
For now Raila is still getting almost 50 percent of Luhya votes...
If you check - Raila is getting votes in liwe liwalo Luhya subtribes that are historicaly close to Luos.
I doubt MaDVD even as PORK will influence say Busia sub tribes to vote Kenya Kwanza.
Those are "luhyas" named Awori, Atwoli, Adhiambo, odipo...they are more Luos than Luhya...like some Gusii named Odhieki etc
Making MaDVD PORK would add very little in votes...maybe improve Kenya Kwanza from 50-55 percent to 65-70 percent in Luhyaland
Luhya are not a tribe like Kambas - they are just motley collection of bantu speaking people in western provinces.
In terms of votes  - making maDVD PORK will add  about 1 percent of the national vote - maybe another 200 - 300K votes.

What maDVD will do is lessen the feeling by other kenyans that Kenya Kwanza is Kikuyu-Kalenjin domination of kenya politics.

Such propaganda is not going to fly in Kalenjin or kikuyu land - so basically you're about 40 percent of the total votes who dont give a damn.
Luos will vote Raila liwe liwalo
Such propaganda will only be effective in Luhya, Kambaland, Gusii and Coast.
If you remove Kambas - majority will vote Kalonzo anyway as DPORK - though I believe Ruto will do "suprisingly" well as fatigue and feeling Kalonzo got yet another raw deal sets in.

The propaganda is going to be effective in Luhya, Gusii and coast. Maybe in Maasailand and such areas but hakuna kura uko.
Gusii was long gone anyway because of Matiangi replacing Ruto as DPORK through executive order 1 of 2019- and the fallout from it.

Maybe it combined effect (which already factored in MOAS) is 3 percent loss for Ruto.

Now come the elephant in the house - GEMA.

GEMA combined have 22 percent in population - but about 28 percent when they register and vote really good.
Now it's going to be supressed - maybe 25-26 percent.

Now if Raila pick Kalonzo - and run with Kalenjin-Kikuyu propaganda - he will get those who accepted such propaganda in 2017/2013 - already factored.

If Ruto stick to GEMA - he built a fortress in GEMA as GEMA will see a clear path back to power - from Uhuru messy arrangment.

At the end of day - GEMA will be looking for their own interest.

They are not going to want back to power as soon as possible

So for now - If I was Ruto I stick with GEMA - maDVD can go drying - if he doesnt want the PMship because he is not going to get it anywhere else.

The little excitment from Luhyaland is not guranteed while GEMA are now very important for Ruto - if Kalonzo had signed to KK - GEMA would have been dispensable.

This election will now be decided by GEMA