I think the folks with dimmest chance at PORK in Kenya is Muslims and women. Tribe has reduced significantly but still a factor. Raila already won and got rigged so toeni hizo blinkers. Genocidal Kalenjin have the worst traits that threaten other tribes.
There is always a few hopeless people with few working brain cells and zero tact - Magoha, Miguna, Ndii, Karua, Makau Mutua, Maina Kiai, etc - tribe got nothing to do with it. These are the worst bottom hopeless.
Then you have a less abhorrent yet hopeless layer of PK, Balala, Kombo, Tuju - "national figures" with zero followers. PK is a nobody without Uhuru but is very marketable and look authentic provided the hard work is done for him. Matiang'i and MK also fall here - you can see MK is clueless on his own and must hide behind Uhuru or Mobutu. It a mystery if he back or oppose BBI. Noone know his party name - not even mama mboga in Nanyuki - baffles me when Pundit claim he is legit. Nope. Matiang'i also useless without Uhuru state powers. Giddy easily fit here too.
Then slightly better but strictly domiciled Kalonzos, Mutuas, Mdvds. These delusional types are unable to accept their fate as punda league and think they are Raila or Mobutu level. Katikati mindset - they think they deserve to be PORK as safe-pair-of-hands and such. Most desperate is Kalonzo: after Raila-Uhuru promised him VP is very happy and singing BBI everywhere - he has no single issue with it.
Mdvd has been offered DPM - but is very unsettled watermelon. He believes he deserves better - at least better than his "junior" PK
who gets PM. Mdvd trouble is big: one his ANC is hostile to Mobutu and prefer Raila. Two Uhuru backs PK for PM so it a done deal. Third Oparanya is an option if he bolt or go solo. Kalonzo already bagged VP so expect this watermelon to remain undecided until he get named DPM in absentia.
Raila and Mobutu are very rare talent - all this national circus is engineered by the two.
In BBI: Raila, Kalonzo, PK, Matiang'i are very happy. Mobutu is in a conundrum with no lineup to speak of.