Author Topic: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal  (Read 6445 times)

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2020, 01:30:40 PM »
REALITY vs ideals.

-Devolution- BBI says 35% of CURRENT budget figures verified by auditor general. Not present 15% of 5 years old figures. The real import is that going above 15% today is totally at the whim of PORK. Only anchoring in katiba makes it progressively federal. Transition will take years just like gender has taken 10 years already.

Pundit if you really want federalism I don't get how you want to leave devolution at the mercy of PORK. Power concede nothing.

-Gender of course we know MPs have voted 10X or more - probably 20X - and 2 general elections with no solution in sight. In 2012 MPs rejected 1/3 women party primaries as proposed by Charles Nyachae CIC. Only proper formula in katiba can resolve it which need referendum. Following Maraga advisory to dissolve parliament would be the most irresponsible thing a PORK ever did. You should be greatful Uhuru is mature and sober unlike the mercurial Maraga and childish folks like Nelson Havi.

Note I agree with your recollections of the 10 years debate. But reality is it failed- you cannot force MPs to pass 2/3, or force 1/3 women in primaries- or force Kenyans to vote 1/3 women. These were already tried and FAILED for 10 years. Now we have advisory and you want to roll the dice with acts of parliament? How do you guarantee the outcome? BBI guarantees the outcome.

-Hybrid changes the role of Parliament to join Executive- which expressly requires referendum. Ministers will be MPs and that explicit change of their role from present pure presidential. BBI is French model while 2010 is US - such clear change cannot be done by MPs.

Are you suggesting you can change the law and appoint an MP Treasury CS today? Is Raila in parliament? You have committees chaired by Jubilee MPs oversighting Jubilee CS's - no shadow cabinet.

35% devolution and hybrid system - a glorified Duale/Matiangi - don't need any change of any law. Those are administrative actions by Parliament Budget Office - and by Executive PORK.

Secondly Gender Bill - do more research. 

Simple google

In February 2014, the Hon. Attorney General set up a working group[6] on the implementation of the Supreme Court Ruling on the attainment of the two-thirds gender principle to develop a framework for the realization of the two-thirds principle before the deadline set by the Supreme Court. The working group received several proposals and recommendations from different stakeholders, institutions and individuals and came up with one proposal which it considered most viable to help attain the two-thirds gender principle as lifting the provisions of article 177 (b) and (c) to articles 97 and 98 of the Constitution of Kenya 2010.   

For effective implementation of the formula, the Working Group proposed the following legislative amendments to be undertaken so as to actualize realization of implementation of the two-thirds gender principle as follows:

Amendment of the Political Parties Act
Amendment of the Elections Act.
Amendment of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act
Amendment of the National Gender and Equality Commission Act
Amendment of the County Governments Act

NOWHERE is the amendment of constitution REQUIRED. - Besides we are at 20% - just need a push to 33% - so if parliament and political parties showed more goodwill - and commitment - it can be done.

What is Kamanda doing as nominated Mp for example? or Ole Sankonk? Or the Albino Mwaura. All those positions should be reserved for women - both able and disabled.

BBI legitimate issues

-2/3 gender conundrum - 2 elections and 20 plenary votes failed leading to Maraga advisory
-35% devolution - it was 35% before Naivasha. Of course no day GoK will volunteer more funds to counties without this threshold. Anchoring it in constitution is important step that guarantee gradual transition
-Hybrid system cannot be done by law... including opposition leader and shadow cabinet

The other small carrots of youth commission, tax holidays, HELB, WDF are sweeteners to make it popular obviously.

BBI is Bomas 2005 and CoE 2010 before they were corrupted by MPs in Kilifi and Naivasha. Gender, 35%, hybrid were all in original docs and that is what is being addressed. This correction of past ukora after the most comprehensive and inclusive processes in the past are the real basis for BBI legitimacy.

For a lawyer that is crazy - what purpose of a constitution. A constitution should be general framework. A solid framework.  The statutory laws should be changed to fit the circumstances - but not the constitution. We want a document that can live for 100yrs.

Otherwise as you become desperate like Raila you're returning us back again to era where constitution was changed to satisfy short term interest in the end it became a mongrel.

Many of issues people have can be fixed with goodwill and without laws. You don't need constitution to co-opt members of opposition if that is what short term political reality demand. That can be done by parliament.

You don't need constitution for all the BBI nonsense - because you can for example start ward fund like CDF without touching constitution, devolve more funds without touching constitution, meet 2/3 gender rule without touching the constitution, name it. You don't need constitution to fire IEBC or do you need a constitutional change in many of Raila's BBI nonsense.

You don't need constitution to fight corruption, to get police to work, and the judiciary to function.

BBI therefore is just NONSENSE on steroid...designed by Uhuru as diversionary talk shop and swallowed hook, line and sinker by  IDIOTS.

2010 constitution is a product of a long struggle and we should not amend unless absolutely necessary. Actually we SHOULD NEVER ammend it except to really improve it's framework by removing some of badly written sections...that appears to codify certain aspect. They are few such areas...otherwise 90% of the document is good.

There ought to be as many amendments to the constitution as possible and as necessary.  If BBI does not work then another group of people should organize another amendment to the BBI.  What is important is that there is a well established process for amending the constitution.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2020, 02:02:22 PM »
Maraga advisory cannot be questioned - the law required him to do exactly what he did. Court cases are buying time for parliament so they get to 2022 - and render Maraga decision nugatory.

Parliament is legal and constitutional unless SCORK says otherwise. SCORK will ask themselves hard questions like PORK has done - does election guarantee 2/3? Of course not - and in that case AG will present BBI as better solution in the works. That's a more likely outcome than imagining SCORK will anull parliament - they have a responsibility beyond the plain letter of the law.

Even here predictably Trump lawyer go all the way to SCOTUS. Ala 2000 Al Gore. Assume they have evidence of dead voters and such ukora as I suspect- will SCOTUS nullify the Biden victory? My bet is nope - they will weigh pros and cons of such action for posterity. It better to have few angry Trump, Guilliani and Robina :) - than tarnish the US image and cause chaos. Instead the judges will retreat to chamber and order a raft of legal corrections for future elections- probably order prosecution of a few corrupt Kivuitus. Judges are not bound by the letter of the law - the spirit evolves over the years.


Ndii argument is on BASIC STRUCTURE of the constitution. Our constitution already define section that is protected from ammendment except through a referenda. Ndii argument is to extend that protection to key sections for example Bill of Rights - System of Gov - so you don't end up with kiraka of constitution like we had previously

It's OS and the upper layers. You are allowed to installed anything but don't mess with kernel.

Bill of Rights and system of gov are already protected. This is why you need BBI referendum to alter pure presidential to hybrid. Are you arguing against yourself? Of course no single clause can be sacrosanct - the people own the constitution. Already requiring 1M signatures, 24 counties, referendum- ensure nobodies like Aukot and Omtata cannot alter the katiba.

BBI with Uhuru and Raila backing is like 80% of Kenyans represented and they still get to vote in referendum. Kenyans want Bomas 2005 and CoE 2010 hybrid system - not present Kilifi and Naivasha pure presidential ukora.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2020, 02:33:32 PM »
First I am not naive like you and Raila to believe BBI is designed for anything except dustbin. Uhuru clearly understand why it nearly impossible to devolve more than we currently do - without devolving more functions. If this 35% will force gov to cede some functions - like KERRA/KURA - some aspect of education - then I am all for that. It is naive though to expect national gov to function of 65% of the budget when it still does most of key functions - education and security - takes nearly half the budget.

2nd don't a little fool. The constitution stick on parliament should be made to work. If Uhuru demanded that MPS run to Dandora dump site and pick up the gender bill or they will be disbanded they will do that. But to play games is uncostitutional. The whole idea of that constitutional threat was to force MPs to do exactly that.

You don't ammend the katiba..when Katiba has the solution. If the stupid frivolous court case challenging Maraga decision is thrown out - and I expect soon - the ball will be on Uhuru. He can play games or get proper legacy like Maraga. All he need is to demand MPs pass the law - and they will.

On hybrid nonsense - that is where you need to read Ndii submission and basic constitutionalism.

Our entire constitution has a framework. Once you mess with presidential system - then you have to completely overhaul it. You cannot create a patchwork.

If there are imperative to co-opt bitter losers like Raila - we don't need a permanent solution for that - Uhuru should do a gentleman - prime minister kinda of thing - and maybe when Ruto comes in - and wins by 85% - he can discard such - and rule as PORK with wide mandate and legitimacy.


Bottomline- No Need for BBI. No need to change the constitution. And it won't happen anyway. This constitution foresaw this and has guarded itself.
Raila is wasting time.

But if he wants to use it as 2022 launchpad - go for it :) :)

It guaranteed to fail - because Ruto will be talking bread and butter issues - jobs, manufacturing, roads, electricity -

And the broken record since 1960s will be talking the same same nonsense - IEBC, BBI, referendum, prime minister, reforms, change.

REALITY vs ideals.

-Devolution- BBI says 35% of CURRENT budget figures verified by auditor general. Not present 15% of 5 years old figures. The real import is that going above 15% today is totally at the whim of PORK. Only anchoring in katiba makes it progressively federal. Transition will take years just like gender has taken 10 years already.

Pundit if you really want federalism I don't get how you want to leave devolution at the mercy of PORK. Power concede nothing.

-Gender of course we know MPs have voted 10X or more - probably 20X - and 2 general elections with no solution in sight. In 2012 MPs rejected 1/3 women party primaries as proposed by Charles Nyachae CIC. Only proper formula in katiba can resolve it which need referendum. Following Maraga advisory to dissolve parliament would be the most irresponsible thing a PORK ever did. You should be greatful Uhuru is mature and sober unlike the mercurial Maraga and childish folks like Nelson Havi.

Note I agree with your recollections of the 10 years debate. But reality is it failed- you cannot force MPs to pass 2/3, or force 1/3 women in primaries- or force Kenyans to vote 1/3 women. These were already tried and FAILED for 10 years. Now we have advisory and you want to roll the dice with acts of parliament? How do you guarantee the outcome? BBI guarantees the outcome.

-Hybrid changes the role of Parliament to join Executive- which expressly requires referendum. Ministers will be MPs and that explicit change of their role from present pure presidential. BBI is French model while 2010 is US - such clear change cannot be done by MPs.

Are you suggesting you can change the law and appoint an MP Treasury CS today? Is Raila in parliament? You have committees chaired by Jubilee MPs oversighting Jubilee CS's - no shadow cabinet.

35% devolution and hybrid system - a glorified Duale/Matiangi - don't need any change of any law. Those are administrative actions by Parliament Budget Office - and by Executive PORK.

Secondly Gender Bill - do more research. 

Simple google

In February 2014, the Hon. Attorney General set up a working group[6] on the implementation of the Supreme Court Ruling on the attainment of the two-thirds gender principle to develop a framework for the realization of the two-thirds principle before the deadline set by the Supreme Court. The working group received several proposals and recommendations from different stakeholders, institutions and individuals and came up with one proposal which it considered most viable to help attain the two-thirds gender principle as lifting the provisions of article 177 (b) and (c) to articles 97 and 98 of the Constitution of Kenya 2010.   

For effective implementation of the formula, the Working Group proposed the following legislative amendments to be undertaken so as to actualize realization of implementation of the two-thirds gender principle as follows:

Amendment of the Political Parties Act
Amendment of the Elections Act.
Amendment of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act
Amendment of the National Gender and Equality Commission Act
Amendment of the County Governments Act

NOWHERE is the amendment of constitution REQUIRED. - Besides we are at 20% - just need a push to 33% - so if parliament and political parties showed more goodwill - and commitment - it can be done.

What is Kamanda doing as nominated Mp for example? or Ole Sankonk? Or the Albino Mwaura. All those positions should be reserved for women - both able and disabled.

BBI legitimate issues

-2/3 gender conundrum - 2 elections and 20 plenary votes failed leading to Maraga advisory
-35% devolution - it was 35% before Naivasha. Of course no day GoK will volunteer more funds to counties without this threshold. Anchoring it in constitution is important step that guarantee gradual transition
-Hybrid system cannot be done by law... including opposition leader and shadow cabinet

The other small carrots of youth commission, tax holidays, HELB, WDF are sweeteners to make it popular obviously.

BBI is Bomas 2005 and CoE 2010 before they were corrupted by MPs in Kilifi and Naivasha. Gender, 35%, hybrid were all in original docs and that is what is being addressed. This correction of past ukora after the most comprehensive and inclusive processes in the past are the real basis for BBI legitimacy.

For a lawyer that is crazy - what purpose of a constitution. A constitution should be general framework. A solid framework.  The statutory laws should be changed to fit the circumstances - but not the constitution. We want a document that can live for 100yrs.

Otherwise as you become desperate like Raila you're returning us back again to era where constitution was changed to satisfy short term interest in the end it became a mongrel.

Many of issues people have can be fixed with goodwill and without laws. You don't need constitution to co-opt members of opposition if that is what short term political reality demand. That can be done by parliament.

You don't need constitution for all the BBI nonsense - because you can for example start ward fund like CDF without touching constitution, devolve more funds without touching constitution, meet 2/3 gender rule without touching the constitution, name it. You don't need constitution to fire IEBC or do you need a constitutional change in many of Raila's BBI nonsense.

You don't need constitution to fight corruption, to get police to work, and the judiciary to function.

BBI therefore is just NONSENSE on steroid...designed by Uhuru as diversionary talk shop and swallowed hook, line and sinker by  IDIOTS.

2010 constitution is a product of a long struggle and we should not amend unless absolutely necessary. Actually we SHOULD NEVER ammend it except to really improve it's framework by removing some of badly written sections...that appears to codify certain aspect. They are few such areas...otherwise 90% of the document is good.

There ought to be as many amendments to the constitution as possible and as necessary.  If BBI does not work then another group of people should organize another amendment to the BBI.  What is important is that there is a well established process for amending the constitution.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2020, 02:38:39 PM »
Are obtuse naturally? This gender bill has gone to high court 3 times - and it's gone to Supreme court. It went there long before Maraga became CJ. It's been 10yrs. There is nothing parliament has not done. It's been litigated to death.

This is frivolous case that will be thrown out. The substantive issues have been dealt with. Parliament are just buying time.

As regard constitution -basic structure and the referenda - that I can agree - that properly done referenda can ammend constitution and make murder legal - but remember it won't be easy to pull a proper referendum. NOT easy. One mistep. And you're back to square one.

As of now - we don't even have a referendum act - we don't even have a properly constituted IEBC.

Maraga advisory cannot be questioned - the law required him to do exactly what he did. Court cases are buying time for parliament so they get to 2022 - and render Maraga decision nugatory.

Parliament is legal and constitutional unless SCORK says otherwise. SCORK will ask themselves hard questions like PORK has done - does election guarantee 2/3? Of course not - and in that case AG will present BBI as better solution in the works. That's a more likely outcome than imagining SCORK will anull parliament - they have a responsibility beyond the plain letter of the law.

Even here predictably Trump lawyer go all the way to SCOTUS. Ala 2000 Al Gore. Assume they have evidence of dead voters and such ukora as I suspect- will SCOTUS nullify the Biden victory? My bet is nope - they will weigh pros and cons of such action for posterity. It better to have few angry Trump, Guilliani and Robina :) - than tarnish the US image and cause chaos. Instead the judges will retreat to chamber and order a raft of legal corrections for future elections- probably order prosecution of a few corrupt Kivuitus. Judges are not bound by the letter of the law - the spirit evolves over the years.


Ndii argument is on BASIC STRUCTURE of the constitution. Our constitution already define section that is protected from ammendment except through a referenda. Ndii argument is to extend that protection to key sections for example Bill of Rights - System of Gov - so you don't end up with kiraka of constitution like we had previously

It's OS and the upper layers. You are allowed to installed anything but don't mess with kernel.

Bill of Rights and system of gov are already protected. This is why you need BBI referendum to alter pure presidential to hybrid. Are you arguing against yourself? Of course no single clause can be sacrosanct - the people own the constitution. Already requiring 1M signatures, 24 counties, referendum- ensure nobodies like Aukot and Omtata cannot alter the katiba.

BBI with Uhuru and Raila backing is like 80% of Kenyans represented and they still get to vote in referendum. Kenyans want Bomas 2005 and CoE 2010 hybrid system - not present Kilifi and Naivasha pure presidential ukora.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2020, 03:35:47 PM »
First I am not naive like you and Raila to believe BBI is designed for anything except dustbin. Uhuru clearly understand why it nearly impossible to devolve more than we currently do - without devolving more functions. If this 35% will force gov to cede some functions - like KERRA/KURA - some aspect of education - then I am all for that. It is naive though to expect national gov to function of 65% of the budget when it still does of key functions - education and security - takes nearly half the budget.

Devolution to 35% will take years - I mean adding mere few women in parliament has already taken 10 years. Adding 35% clause guarantee that transition - it not rocket science but need time and clear mandate. Leaving it to PORK and national govt actually guarantee it will never happen. Even now governors complain they have medical burden yet most resources remain at Mafya house. Take away the money - and force the transition. Now in future Omtata can run to court and judge will give advisory - this must be achieved in 5 years. Very good move.

Of course the other argument - the more you devolve the less the dog-fight for SH that kill innocent folks and disrupt economy every cycle. The more devolution the merrier for divided, tribalized, selfish Wanjiku. If you had 35% devolution probably there would not be 5K+ tombstones from PEV.


2nd don't a little fool. The constitution stick on parliament should be made to work. If Uhuru demanded that MPS run to Dandora dump site and pick up the gender bill or they will be disbanded they will do that. But to play games is uncostitutional. The whole idea of that constitutional threat was to force MPs to do exactly that.

You don't ammend the katiba..when Katiba has the solution. If the stupid frivolous court case challenging Maraga decision is thrown out - and I expect soon - the ball will be on Uhuru. He can play games or get proper legacy like Maraga. All he need is to demand MPs pass the law - and they will.

The "stick" was ill- conceived by Njoki Ndung'u and Kitonga CoE crew. Why won't Uhuru (threaten to) dissolve parliament?
1. The solution cannot be more painful than the problem - dissolving parliament lead to bigger crisis than present.
2. Uhuru is keen on BBI and elections would scuttle it.
3. Uhuru himself - and Mobutu and Raila, Kalonzos, name it - MALE leaders - are not committed to gender equity. Uhuru cabinet barely meets 1/3 itself - 5 women out of 22 CS is 25%. Every time there was a vote in the house they would give lip service by issuing press statement - urging MPs to vote for it. But they never held a single PG to whip MPs. Tangatanga or Kieleweke factions don't even exist in gender debate. BBI is golden chance that women cannot squander knowing it once in a 50 years chance to nick it.

You see Maraga advisory is actually great PR for BBI - as permanent 1/3 fix. Judges will not overturn or affirm Maraga advisory fwaa but will see BBI as serious practical effort by GoK/parliament that avoid crisis. Advisory is pure letter of the law... BBI is both the letter and spirit of the law.



On hybrid nonsense - that is where you need to read Ndii submission and basic constitutionalism.

Our entire constitution has a framework. Once you mess with presidential system - then you have to completely overhaul it. You cannot create a patchwork.

If there are imperative to co-opt bitter losers like Raila - we don't need a permanent solution for that - Uhuru should do a gentleman - prime minister kinda of thing - and maybe when Ruto comes in - and wins by 85% - he can discard such - and rule as PORK with wide mandate and legitimacy.

Ndii framework or core architecture argument makes sense - like pure presidential to hybrid alters the core. But it is not supported by any clause or law right now. Recall current pure presidential was just patchwork at Naivasha that no Kenyan ever proposed. Overwhelming number of proposals were on hybrid with Executive PORK - exactly as captured BBI. BBI is a correction of Kilifi and Naivasha shenanigans which overruled Kenyans.

Magufuli 85% of course is brazen rigging. Even NARC revolution scored only 68%. Even Mandela after 30yr jail fighting mzungu merely got 56%. I don't need to look at opinion polls or even hard evidence - what miracles has Magufuli done in TZ to get 85% landslide :o - that utopia would be self- evident.

Bottomline- No Need for BBI. No need to change the constitution. And it won't happen anyway. This constitution foresaw this and has guarded itself.
Raila is wasting time.

But if he wants to use it as 2022 launchpad - go for it :) :)

It guaranteed to fail - because Ruto will be talking bread and butter issues - jobs, manufacturing, roads, electricity -

And the broken record since 1960s will be talking the same same nonsense - IEBC, BBI, referendum, prime minister, reforms, change.

Well it not the first time Raila has scuttled Mobutu game. This is trojan 2. BBI of course is Raila 2022 Manifesto - that why I don't see it happening until then - so basically it will be Raila-Yes vs Mobutu-No. It called strategy - Mobutu need to hold on tight to his hustler nation. It no-brainer which side Kalonzos, Mdvds, Nanoks will back in their own self interest - the definition of politics.

You can tout your 30 years punditry - I can argue WYSIWIG. This I concede only time will tell us.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2020, 03:50:47 PM »
I don't tout my punditry - it's speak for itself. You problem is obivous - low IQ, little domain knowledge and basically innovating on the go - while backing the wrong horse. You need to understand kenya politics and current affairs better to be able to make good predictions. Then just throw in politicriks and intrigues - politics is never wysiwyg; there is a lot of treachery, trickery and the whole dirty game. BBI for me looks like a dead horse you're flogging. It seems almost designed to fail - just spin the wheels for 5yrs - so Uhuru finishes his term in peace - everytime it look like it's about to stop - give it another push- and keep the Odinga watching the wheel.

If somebody is arguing for 10yrs to devolve an extra 10B kshs every year - now he wants to tell you - he will give you 35% - which is 1 trillion shillings :) - that Uhuru or Raila - will now hand counties 600B more every year :)

When the deal is too good think twice. Some of the naivety is inborn. Congenital stupidity. Udanganyikwa kama mtoto mdogo.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2020, 05:17:13 PM »
Your punditry start and end with tribal pie charts. Without such clear high school math puzzle - of excel formulas - hard thinking is beyond you. Devolution is the way to go and Uhuru-Raila will be remembered for eons over it. Mobutu will be remembered for vehemently rejecting and opposing all reforms - and losing big. There is always space in history for such black sheep - 6-star General Robert E. Lee is still studied at Westpoint military academy. He is on monuments in Deep South for killing millions to sustain slavery by hook & crook. Black-lives-matter are still trying to uproot Gen Lee statues to-date. Mobutu and Pundit are equally a great balance to the reform debate - they will ensure pro-BBI team rope in most folks to win. In the end the majority opinion in Bomas and CoE will be restored.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2020, 06:28:09 PM »
You're just out of your depth. You think MOAS is excel macros - how many macros do you need to manage excel sheet of 47 columns; None.
Your punditry start and end with tribal pie charts. Without such clear high school math puzzle - of excel formulas - hard thinking is beyond you. Devolution is the way to go and Uhuru-Raila will be remembered for eons over it. Mobutu will be remembered for vehemently rejecting and opposing all reforms - and losing big. There is always space in history for such black sheep - 6-star General Robert E. Lee is still studied at Westpoint military academy. He is on monuments in Deep South for killing millions to sustain slavery by hook & crook. Black-lives-matter are still trying to uproot Gen Lee statues to-date. Mobutu and Pundit are equally a great balance to the reform debate - they will ensure pro-BBI team rope in most folks to win. In the end the majority opinion in Bomas and CoE will be restored.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2020, 06:35:02 PM »
You paste KNBS numbers - read Tom Wolf, Ndii and Mutahi Ngunyi columns - bum! you have MOAS 2022. Mobutu 65% :) Few things change - BBI - and you discard everything and claim tribe is dead. Anyway you may need to run BBI MOAS soon as Yes vs No take shape.

You're just out of your depth. You think MOAS is excel macros - how many macros do you need to manage excel sheet of 47 columns; None.
Your punditry start and end with tribal pie charts. Without such clear high school math puzzle - of excel formulas - hard thinking is beyond you. Devolution is the way to go and Uhuru-Raila will be remembered for eons over it. Mobutu will be remembered for vehemently rejecting and opposing all reforms - and losing big. There is always space in history for such black sheep - 6-star General Robert E. Lee is still studied at Westpoint military academy. He is on monuments in Deep South for killing millions to sustain slavery by hook & crook. Black-lives-matter are still trying to uproot Gen Lee statues to-date. Mobutu and Pundit are equally a great balance to the reform debate - they will ensure pro-BBI team rope in most folks to win. In the end the majority opinion in Bomas and CoE will be restored.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2020, 07:16:20 PM »
You're a damn bloody fool. They read me. I have been doing MOAS since 2005 when Ndii was working for Narc.
Yes you can get rough MOAS by following tribes - but for my level of precision - you need a lot more.
You paste KNBS numbers - read Tom Wolf, Ndii and Mutahi Ngunyi columns - bum! you have MOAS 2022. Mobutu 65% :) Few things change - BBI - and you discard everything and claim tribe is dead. Anyway you may need to run BBI MOAS soon as Yes vs No take shape.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #30 on: November 08, 2020, 07:19:21 PM »
Reminder of the last MOAS
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.msg39670#msg39670
MPs
MPs: Jubilee & allied 159 versus 158  :D :D
NASA & allied 108 versus 108


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2020, 07:31:31 PM »
9.5% off-target aggregate is biggest margin of error. Even US openly biased polls are merely wrong by 5 points. 2016 and 2020.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2020, 07:34:42 PM »
Why do you think Mutahi Ngunyi or Tom Wolf are not following your lead on BBI?

You're a damn bloody fool. They read me. I have been doing MOAS since 2005 when Ndii was working for Narc.
Yes you can get rough MOAS by following tribes - but for my level of precision - you need a lot more.
You paste KNBS numbers - read Tom Wolf, Ndii and Mutahi Ngunyi columns - bum! you have MOAS 2022. Mobutu 65% :) Few things change - BBI - and you discard everything and claim tribe is dead. Anyway you may need to run BBI MOAS soon as Yes vs No take shape.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2020, 07:43:20 PM »
My friend I got it dot on aggregrate - on some counties is where I got some of them badly off - like Nyamira and West Pokot - every election cycle - I try to minimize such. I use to have problems with Western Kenya - Luhyas - but as you can see - that now is sorted.

It appears Gusii, Ukambani, Isiolo-Marsabit - and as always Pokots -are very tricky - also the coast.

As for you - you're an idiot.

9.5% off-target aggregate is biggest margin of error. Even US openly biased polls are merely wrong by 5 points. 2016 and 2020.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2020, 07:44:51 PM »
Which lead? 
Why do you think Mutahi Ngunyi or Tom Wolf are not following your lead on BBI?

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2020, 08:50:31 PM »
"They are playing Raila" And hustler wave 65%.

Which lead? 
Why do you think Mutahi Ngunyi or Tom Wolf are not following your lead on BBI?
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2020, 09:00:37 PM »
Yes MOAS are actually great. I just think they are simple tribal data analysis - excel stuff - not the holy grail of politics. Outside that you are clueless.

Take for instance legal stuff :-

Uhuruto 2017 will be upheld by SCORK - flop
Jomo portrait on KSh is unconstitutional - flop
Governor can't be suspended - flop
BBI is illegal - flop
Maraga advisory can't be blocked - flop

See? your expertise start and end with excel :)

My friend I got it dot on aggregrate - on some counties is where I got some of them badly off - like Nyamira and West Pokot - every election cycle - I try to minimize such. I use to have problems with Western Kenya - Luhyas - but as you can see - that now is sorted.

It appears Gusii, Ukambani, Isiolo-Marsabit - and as always Pokots -are very tricky - also the coast.

As for you - you're an idiot.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2020, 09:06:19 PM »
I am glad you're keeping tabs - because I dish out punditry almost daily - on various topics. As long as I make a sound argument - and explain my reasoning - I am done- the rest are details. I am not a lawyer but definitely understand more law than you can ever know. I move on to history, economics, name it, any topic I feel comfortably, I make my well reasoned opinion known.
Yes MOAS are actually great. I just think they are simple tribal data analysis - excel stuff - not the holy grail of politics. Outside that you are clueless.

Take for instance legal stuff :-

Uhuruto 2017 will be upheld by SCORK - flop
Jomo portrait on KSh is unconstitutional - flop
Governor can't be suspended - flop
BBI is illegal - flop
Maraga advisory can't be blocked - flop

See? your expertise start and end with excel :)

My friend I got it dot on aggregrate - on some counties is where I got some of them badly off - like Nyamira and West Pokot - every election cycle - I try to minimize such. I use to have problems with Western Kenya - Luhyas - but as you can see - that now is sorted.

It appears Gusii, Ukambani, Isiolo-Marsabit - and as always Pokots -are very tricky - also the coast.

As for you - you're an idiot.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: BBI process poisoned as Major rtd Seii cries betrayal
« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2020, 09:08:39 PM »
I use rationality and common sense. If something doesn't make sense - It simply doesn't. I don't engage in mental contortion like you do. Pretty soon you'll know Raila is just being played as always. Just like Uhuru accepting 35% - without any fight - you know is big lie. Otherwise let him start today as show of goodwill to implement it. Why wait for new constitution when you have goodwill.. :D :D

Are you people born daft? Raila is without doubt Africa's most idiotic leader - which is why- he has yet to become PORK since 1982 - and his father -1960s!

"They are playing Raila" And hustler wave 65%.