First I am not naive like you and Raila to believe BBI is designed for anything except dustbin. Uhuru clearly understand why it nearly impossible to devolve more than we currently do - without devolving more functions. If this 35% will force gov to cede some functions - like KERRA/KURA - some aspect of education - then I am all for that. It is naive though to expect national gov to function of 65% of the budget when it still does of key functions - education and security - takes nearly half the budget.
Devolution to 35% will take years - I mean adding mere few women in parliament has already taken 10 years. Adding 35% clause guarantee that transition - it not rocket science but need time and clear mandate. Leaving it to PORK and national govt actually guarantee it will never happen. Even now governors complain they have medical burden yet most resources remain at Mafya house. Take away the money - and force the transition. Now in future Omtata can run to court and judge will give advisory - this must be achieved in 5 years. Very good move.
Of course the other argument - the more you devolve the less the dog-fight for SH that kill innocent folks and disrupt economy every cycle. The more devolution the merrier for divided, tribalized, selfish Wanjiku. If you had 35% devolution probably there would not be 5K+ tombstones from PEV.
2nd don't a little fool. The constitution stick on parliament should be made to work. If Uhuru demanded that MPS run to Dandora dump site and pick up the gender bill or they will be disbanded they will do that. But to play games is uncostitutional. The whole idea of that constitutional threat was to force MPs to do exactly that.
You don't ammend the katiba..when Katiba has the solution. If the stupid frivolous court case challenging Maraga decision is thrown out - and I expect soon - the ball will be on Uhuru. He can play games or get proper legacy like Maraga. All he need is to demand MPs pass the law - and they will.
The "stick" was ill- conceived by Njoki Ndung'u and Kitonga CoE crew. Why won't Uhuru (threaten to) dissolve parliament?
1. The solution cannot be more painful than the problem - dissolving parliament lead to bigger crisis than present.
2. Uhuru is keen on BBI and elections would scuttle it.
3. Uhuru himself - and Mobutu and Raila, Kalonzos, name it - MALE leaders - are not committed to gender equity. Uhuru cabinet barely meets 1/3 itself - 5 women out of 22 CS is 25%. Every time there was a vote in the house they would give lip service by issuing press statement - urging MPs to vote for it. But they never held a single PG to whip MPs. Tangatanga or Kieleweke factions don't even exist in gender debate. BBI is golden chance that women cannot squander knowing it once in a 50 years chance to nick it.
You see Maraga advisory is actually great PR for BBI - as permanent 1/3 fix. Judges will not overturn or affirm Maraga advisory fwaa but will see BBI as serious practical effort by GoK/parliament that avoid crisis. Advisory is pure letter of the law... BBI is both the letter and spirit of the law.
On hybrid nonsense - that is where you need to read Ndii submission and basic constitutionalism.
Our entire constitution has a framework. Once you mess with presidential system - then you have to completely overhaul it. You cannot create a patchwork.
If there are imperative to co-opt bitter losers like Raila - we don't need a permanent solution for that - Uhuru should do a gentleman - prime minister kinda of thing - and maybe when Ruto comes in - and wins by 85% - he can discard such - and rule as PORK with wide mandate and legitimacy.
Ndii framework or core architecture argument makes sense - like pure presidential to hybrid alters the core. But it is not supported by any clause or law right now. Recall current pure presidential was just patchwork at Naivasha that no Kenyan ever proposed. Overwhelming number of proposals were on hybrid with Executive PORK - exactly as captured BBI. BBI is a correction of Kilifi and Naivasha shenanigans which overruled Kenyans.
Magufuli 85% of course is brazen rigging. Even NARC revolution scored only 68%. Even Mandela after 30yr jail fighting mzungu merely got 56%. I don't need to look at opinion polls or even hard evidence - what miracles has Magufuli done in TZ to get 85% landslide
- that utopia would be self- evident.
Bottomline- No Need for BBI. No need to change the constitution. And it won't happen anyway. This constitution foresaw this and has guarded itself.
Raila is wasting time.
But if he wants to use it as 2022 launchpad - go for it
It guaranteed to fail - because Ruto will be talking bread and butter issues - jobs, manufacturing, roads, electricity -
And the broken record since 1960s will be talking the same same nonsense - IEBC, BBI, referendum, prime minister, reforms, change.
Well it not the first time Raila has scuttled Mobutu game. This is trojan 2. BBI of course is Raila 2022 Manifesto - that why I don't see it happening until then - so basically it will be Raila-Yes vs Mobutu-No. It called strategy - Mobutu need to hold on tight to his hustler nation. It no-brainer which side Kalonzos, Mdvds, Nanoks will back in their own self interest - the definition of politics.
You can tout your 30 years punditry - I can argue WYSIWIG. This I concede only time will tell us.