I agree with the premise of revolution - with your usual blinkers and jaundiced twists
1.
Narrative: No, Mobutu hustler does not have a "winning streak" - what are you smoking? Straight from Kibra dog-beating to Jubilee and parliament rout. Now they are totally sidelined in BBI as Naivasha sneak in few "editorial" changes - for disabled senators to appease Isaac Mwauras. I been telling you to show-case something in Murang'a, Naivasha, Murang'a by-eletions. Instead your darling MK is confused, shadow-boxing and MIA - anything but shoring up his clout. Hustler has not won anything except in your echo chamber.
2.
Battle of wits: Revolution usually happen with Kibaki kind of fool vs foxy Raila - you don't have this now cause Raila has outsmarted Mobutu. With tribal DNA fissures sealed - Mobutu only path is class - but BBI blank cheque is running away with youth, women, MCA and whatnot. Now Gema have more seats, imperial PORK pretty intact, .. - maybe Mobutu can incite cops for not being independent
3.
Numbers: Mobutu is being skinned fair & square - long before any machinery properly kick in. If they rig it will be Magufuli- style. There is no violence in TZ because the majority are happy or so-so - only few Chadema diehards are whining in pressers and twitter.
4. Last and most importantly:
Robina iQ is twice Pundit's iQ... donge? I can see as giraffe there will be no revolution soon. Except usual PEV Kalenjin warriors vs diaspora - with very bad outcome for Mobutu. Kalenjin are as entitled to power as Gema - minus the numbers- strategy- calm to execute - expect usual Nazi madness and maybe ICC.
Let me tell you a little story about 2007. Nobody was planning violence. People were planning huge celebratory parties. They knew ODM was winning big. By day one Raila had nearly a million gap - I personally went to celebrate in the bar -:) - and then kidogo kidogo - I heard from someone sitting next to me - that Transmara there were fightings - Ngong won and Maasai had started war - then kidogo kidogo - the mood of people change to sombre - except for my dad. I went home for lunch - and I see my father is only happy one - telling everyone - I told you so - and I rushed to watch the TV - I see shell-shocked Raila, Ruto and company The gap had reduced overnight from nearly 1M to 200K - and Kibaki strongholds had not started coming in - what followed was quick descend into anarchy - Kibaki got sworned in 6-7pm - my friend from Olessos Nandi calls me - and says he sees 1,000 plus warrior heading to Burnt Forest - the next morning my father calls me - and tell me my cousin who had a taxi in litein town had been shot by cops - after violence - and then by mid-day we hear of Kiambaa church. The descend was so fast.
The hustler nation are not even aware that violence is going to happen. They are on a winning streak
Even Hutu-Tutsi all was great until the plane got shot down.
If you think you'll see a revolution or war coming - then you have my IQ.
Most of the time it will happen so "fast" - but it was already out there - and just needed a trigger. You don't know what the trigger will be - but trust me there is no time to organize and strategize.
2022 - we have two possibilities - tribal or class warfare or both - if Uhuru mismanages his transition - by blocking the popular Ruto from taking over. When will it happen - nobody knows. It will just be one trigger.