Robina..Ruto is the new deal

[RV Pundit]

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https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001386048/muthama-plots-to-wipe-out-kalonzo-from-ukambani

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Raila: Ruto's alliance with church is unholy

Orange party leader Raila Odinga has renewed his attacks on William Ruto, claiming the deputy president has stepped up his acts of charity to the church and groups to mask his ties to grand corruption.

According to Raila, the DP has always opposed any form of reform towards minimising the scope of graft in Kenya while manipulating Christians to mask his intentions and plots.

The ODM leader suggested that Ruto was exploiting the gullibility of faithful to mask his source of resources and accused him of belittling government's efforts to combat corruption.

[RV Pundit]

Raila is the new kalonzo - he will find himself in no mans land as he tries to pitia kati kati ya Jubilee.

Raila: Ruto's alliance with church is unholy

Orange party leader Raila Odinga has renewed his attacks on William Ruto, claiming the deputy president has stepped up his acts of charity to the church and groups to mask his ties to grand corruption.

According to Raila, the DP has always opposed any form of reform towards minimising the scope of graft in Kenya while manipulating Christians to mask his intentions and plots.

The ODM leader suggested that Ruto was exploiting the gullibility of faithful to mask his source of resources and accused him of belittling government's efforts to combat corruption.

[Nefertiti]

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001386048/muthama-plots-to-wipe-out-kalonzo-from-ukambani

This only means Kalonzo will run for PORK - quit Handshake lineup - which is not bad strategy for Ruto. Raila will elevate Oparanya and force Mdvd to run in Luhya - leave Ruto with nothing there. It make GEMA remain solid battleground. How is Ruto doing in GEMA?

[Nefertiti]

Hope you are not still dreaming of Uhurutopia- Ruto mean machine in fact back Raila - which Guinness Record. Akin to GOP backing Biden.

Raila is the new kalonzo - he will find himself in no mans land as he tries to pitia kati kati ya Jubilee.

Raila: Ruto's alliance with church is unholy

Orange party leader Raila Odinga has renewed his attacks on William Ruto, claiming the deputy president has stepped up his acts of charity to the church and groups to mask his ties to grand corruption.

According to Raila, the DP has always opposed any form of reform towards minimising the scope of graft in Kenya while manipulating Christians to mask his intentions and plots.

The ODM leader suggested that Ruto was exploiting the gullibility of faithful to mask his source of resources and accused him of belittling government's efforts to combat corruption.

[RV Pundit]

Raila despite whooring for GEMA - will not not - and never - get gema votes. That is just obvious. GEMA elite will either reconcile with Ruto - if their ground remain hostile - or they will fish a stooge. Raila doesn't fit the stooge. You don't replace Raila with Ruto. It doesn't make any sense. Then imagine selling that Raila - if you want Raila - you already got Ruto - a strong player. If you want a stooge - pliable one - Kalonzo - Matiangi - or Gideon or MaDVD- or GEMA own - can do the job - for a while - before they grow horns like Moi or Angola Pork . So this stooge thing is out - Pajero theory is credible - option B for GEMA is to try get their own.

Now while Raila is whooring to GEMA - he is losing his traditional NON-GEMA const to Ruto - and Ruto look likely to retain huge portion of GEMA.

This is Kalonzo pitia kati kati strategy that never works - Raila is losing respect and Ruto is gaining - because people can see his hypocrisy in and they are seeing a strong leader in Ruto.

Hope you are not still dreaming of Uhurutopia- Ruto mean machine in fact back Raila - which Guinness Record. Akin to GOP backing Biden.

[Nefertiti]

That water & oil redux remains to be seen, no? GEMA have never voted for any non-GEMA so either Ruto or Raila would be a first. Raila routinely bag non-Luo all over - it Ruto who need a miracle to go against GEMA prince.

Raila despite whooring for GEMA - will not not - and never - get gema votes. That is just obvious. GEMA elite will either reconcile with Ruto - if their ground remain hostile - or they will fish a stooge. Raila doesn't fit the stooge. You don't replace Raila with Ruto. It doesn't make any sense. Then imagine selling that Raila - if you want Raila - you already got Ruto - a strong player. If you want a stooge - pliable one - Kalonzo - Matiangi - or Gideon or MaDVD- or GEMA own - can do the job - for a while - before they grow horns like Moi or Angola Pork . So this stooge thing is out - Pajero theory is credible - option B for GEMA is to try get their own.

Now while Raila is whooring to GEMA - he is losing his traditional NON-GEMA const to Ruto - and Ruto look likely to retain huge portion of GEMA.

This is Kalonzo pitia kati kati strategy that never works - Raila is losing respect and Ruto is gaining - because people can see his hypocrisy in and they are seeing a strong leader in Ruto.

Hope you are not still dreaming of Uhurutopia- Ruto mean machine in fact back Raila - which Guinness Record. Akin to GOP backing Biden.

[RV Pundit]

You keep underrating Ruto. First if Jubilee split - Ruto is taking all non-gema (bar maybe Gusii although test-tube project Matiangi is untested politically - look very likely to flop if yesterday is anything - and few Maasai although Ruto is likely to cut a deal for them to keep Narok ). Ruto will also lay big stake in GEMA - he has direct support there - unlike Raila. I mean it's been 3yrs and Uhuru guys have thrown everything - next is the kitchen sink - and Ruto still has popular support. GEMA had long accepted 10yrs ya Ruto and they saw it was working - and they also have to think about their own rift valley diaspora future - if they don't vote for Ruto then Kalenjin will make their lives in RV very difficult -  all the 10yrs of bromance will be gone and hostility will reign.

Is it going to be mama ngina's Uhuru or their own mothers? This is current battle - Uhuru's elite selfish interest or community interest.

Again reminder in 2013 - Ruto URP did a good show - and Ruto was still not yet in his prime like now. He was just with Duale . URP had 70: TNA 80:ODM 90: in parliament of 300...so you can see the difference was already narrow. We know in 2017 - Ruto made the difference - by campaigning no stop in Jubilee 1.0- and Raila dropped to 60s.

So we can already say in 2017 it was Ruto 90 Uhuru 80; Raila 60.

If GEMA pick their own prince - Raila kwanza goes kaput - because his whole 2022 strategy collapses! He needs plan B - otherwise he will run a kamikaze show with Oparanya and Joho - where everyone will be pitting the old cat.

Meanwhile Ruto is already on Plan B - and he is not looking that bad.

That water & oil redux remains to be seen, no? GEMA have never voted for any non-GEMA so either Ruto or Raila would be a first. Raila routinely bag non-Luo all over - it Ruto who need a miracle to go against GEMA prince.

[Nowayhaha]

You keep underrating Ruto. First if Jubilee split - Ruto is taking all non-gema (bar maybe Gusii although test-tube project Matiangi is untested politically - look very likely to flop if yesterday is anything - and few Maasai although Ruto is likely to cut a deal for them to keep Narok ). Ruto will also lay big stake in GEMA - he has direct support there - unlike Raila. I mean it's been 3yrs and Uhuru guys have thrown everything - next is the kitchen sink - and Ruto still has popular support. GEMA had long accepted 10yrs ya Ruto and they saw it was working - and they also have to think about their own rift valley diaspora future - if they don't vote for Ruto then Kalenjin will make their lives in RV very difficult -  all the 10yrs of bromance will be gone and hostility will reign.

Is it going to be mama ngina's Uhuru or their own mothers? This is current battle - Uhuru's elite selfish interest or community interest.

Again reminder in 2013 - Ruto URP did a good show - and Ruto was still not yet in his prime like now. He was just with Duale . URP had 70: TNA 80:ODM 90: in parliament of 300...so you can see the difference was already narrow. We know in 2017 - Ruto made the difference - by campaigning no stop in Jubilee 1.0- and Raila dropped to 60s.

So we can already say in 2017 it was Ruto 90 Uhuru 80; Raila 60.

If GEMA pick their own prince - Raila kwanza goes kaput - because his whole 2022 strategy collapses! He needs plan B - otherwise he will run a kamikaze show with Oparanya and Joho - where everyone will be pitting the old cat.

Meanwhile Ruto is already on Plan B - and he is not looking that bad.

That water & oil redux remains to be seen, no? GEMA have never voted for any non-GEMA so either Ruto or Raila would be a first. Raila routinely bag non-Luo all over - it Ruto who need a miracle to go against GEMA prince.

There you go again, your analysis are point on but you fet it wrong about blackmail will make Gema vote for Ruto.
So where in particular in RV will Kalenjin make GEMAs life dificult.?

[RV Pundit]

My friend, we are doing dispassionate punditry, something you're unable to do. You know what was happening in RV before Jubilee. Really no need to break it down every day for you and bring back all the horrific images here daily. There was basically arm race last I heard as each side was arming themselves for the next battle. Kikuyus are "guests" in RV - and they live among the host community - the further you go from Nakuru town - the more they depend on the goodwill of Kalenjin - and the police cannot  secure them - Kibaki had them all - including a fire spitting Somali Army General ALI - that didn't stop nearly half a million kikuyus being uprooted from their homes and their investment burnt.

Remove yourself from GEMA - and analyse GEMA moves for example. Are you even able to do that?

There you go again, your analysis are point on but you fet it wrong about blackmail will make Gema vote for Ruto.
So where in particular in RV will Kalenjin make GEMAs life dificult.?

[Nowayhaha]

My friend, we are doing dispassionate punditry, something you're unable to do. You know what was happening in RV before Jubilee. Really no need to break it down every day for you and bring back all the horrific images here daily. There was basically arm race last I heard as each side was arming themselves for the next battle. Kikuyus are "guests" in RV - and they live among the host community - the further you go from Nakuru town - the more they depend on the goodwill of Kalenjin - and the police cannot  secure them - Kibaki had them all - including a fire spitting Somali Army General ALI - that didn't stop nearly half a million kikuyus being uprooted from their homes and their investment burnt.

Remove yourself from GEMA - and analyse GEMA moves for example. Are you even able to do that?

There you go again, your analysis are point on but you fet it wrong about blackmail will make Gema vote for Ruto.
So where in particular in RV will Kalenjin make GEMAs life dificult.?

You see what you have come with is Nakuru, which by itself snd the population there is s actually a Gema County. This deconstructs the theory you are pushing on violence .
If it comes to analysis  ,you get some right and others wrong. I will always correct you when you are wrong..

[RV Pundit]

Nakuru is interesting - in 1992 - Kalenjin were 10% or so - and but last time I checked I think 2009 census - Kalenjin figures had risen to 37% - and Kikuyu were 57%. So if the trend was maintained - you can see - Kalenjin and Kikuyu will soon equal - if they are not already 50-50. Kalenjin from Bomet/Kericho/Baringo - are moving to Nakuru - the new lands in Mau in numbers.

I believe once Kalenjin have Nakuru - Kikuyus will now have peace - so it likely there will be peace soon. The nyandaruas, laikipias, Nairobis are really Maasai land and Maasai are so much a pale shadow they really have no ambition except to retain Narok - Kajiado soon will be viusasa.

Tranzoia I think is gone unless Mt elgon is added to Tranzoia.

You see what you have come with is Nakuru, which by itself snd the population there is s actually a Gema County. This deconstructs the theory you are pushing on violence .
If it comes to analysis  ,you get some right and others wrong. I will always correct you when you are wrong..

[Nowayhaha]

Nakuru is interesting - in 1992 - Kalenjin were 10% or so - and but last time I checked I think 2009 census - Kalenjin figures had risen to 37% - and Kikuyu were 57%. So if the trend was maintained - you can see - Kalenjin and Kikuyu will soon equal - if they are not already 50-50. Kalenjin from Bomet/Kericho/Baringo - are moving to Nakuru - the new lands in Mau in numbers.

I believe once Kalenjin have Nakuru - Kikuyus will now have peace - so it likely there will be peace soon. The nyandaruas, laikipias, Nairobis are really Maasai land and Maasai are so much a pale shadow they really have no ambition except to retain Narok - Kajiado soon will be viusasa.

Tranzoia I think is gone unless Mt elgon is added to Tranzoia.

You see what you have come with is Nakuru, which by itself snd the population there is s actually a Gema County. This deconstructs the theory you are pushing on violence .
If it comes to analysis  ,you get some right and others wrong. I will always correct you when you are wrong..

You are wrong and I will correct you
Below are 11 constituencies which make up Nakuru, apart from Kuresoi North and South and Rongai the rest are dominated by Kikuyus, kuresoi its self is shared between Kalenjin and Kikuyus

You know what happened is that post 2007 P.E.V. the Kikuyus who were eveicted in Kalenjin counties resettled in Nakuru hence the population boom which you noticed in 2009 census and 2013 elections.
If your memory serves you well you will remember retaliotory attacks against Kalenjin happened in Nakuru.
If violence was to happen yes Nakuru Kuresoi will be a hotspot but this will actually affect Kalenjins. So this theory you have been peddling wont pass.
2022 is not 2007.

Bahati Constituency,Gilgil Constituency,Kuresoi North ConstituencyKuresoi South Constituency,Molo Constituency,Naivasha Constituency,Nakuru Town East Constituency,Nakuru Town West constituency,Njoro Constituency,Rongai Constituency,Subukia Constituency

[Nefertiti]

Nowayhaha needs to move his granny out of Kericho instead of whining about Kalenjin savages.

[Nowayhaha]

Nowayhaha needs to move his granny out of Kericho instead of whining about Kalenjin savages.

Im not even GEMA for your information.

[Nefertiti]

Short of a credible poll, byelections or actual elections - "Ruto has GEMA" is just a theory. The last election they voted Kibaki then Uhuru to a man so that is a better place to start. It actually better for Mutua to say he has Kamba than Ruto saying he has GEMA.

[Nefertiti]

Nowayhaha needs to move his granny out of Kericho instead of whining about Kalenjin savages.

Im not even GEMA for your information.

Pundit is right about PEV 2 - it just won't help Ruto at all. He will be the real loser from the fallout with Raila winning big.

[Nowayhaha]

Short of a credible poll, byelections or actual elections - "Ruto has GEMA" is just a theory. The last election they voted Kibaki then Uhuru to a man so that is a better place to start. It actually better for Mutua to say he has Kamba than Ruto saying he has GEMA.

The same way I correct pundit is the same way I will correct you.
In regards to Gema, 3 counties Meru, Embu Tharaka Nithi are 100%  Ruto that even if in future there is a strong GEMA candidate they will never be united again like in 2007,2013 amd 2017.
Ruto also has support though not like Jubilees numbers in 2013/7 in Nyandarua,Kirinyaga , Nyeri,Laikipia,Nakuru and Muranga.
However there is a problem in Kiambu(RV always thinks its Muranga) there might be a voter apathy like what was experinced in 1997.
Half of Nairobi (half of it is Gema)  like in 2013 and 2017 will vote for Ruto

Now this is based on the true feeling on ground and not some elected mps or senators who 90%  will never make it back to the next parliament.

[Nowayhaha]

Nowayhaha needs to move his granny out of Kericho instead of whining about Kalenjin savages.

Im not even GEMA for your information.

Pundit is right about PEV 2 - it just won't help Ruto at all. He will be the real loser from the fallout with Raila winning big.

Thats what Raila is trying to push as a narative, the truth of the matter is  if it is pitting Kalenjin and Kikuyus there are no more houses to burn or people to evict fro Baringo , Kericho, elgeyo marakwet, Bomet and Nandi,  around eldoret town there is a small population but will be able to move quickly before elections if they smell danger.
Majority of P.EV survivors resetled in Nakuru and Kuresoi and Rongai area will be a hotspot but not like what happened in 2007.

If there was to be a .P.E.V. God forbid  the tribes which will suffer will be Kalenjin , Luhya and Kisiis.

[Nefertiti]

Short of a credible poll, byelections or actual elections - "Ruto has GEMA" is just a theory. The last election they voted Kibaki then Uhuru to a man so that is a better place to start. It actually better for Mutua to say he has Kamba than Ruto saying he has GEMA.

The same way I correct pundit is the same way I will correct you.
In regards to Gema, 3 counties Meru, Embu Tharaka Nithi are 100%  Ruto that even if in future there is a strong GEMA candidate they will never be united again like in 2007,2013 amd 2017.
Ruto also has support though not like Jubilees numbers in 2013/7 in Nyandarua,Kirinyaga , Nyeri,Laikipia,Nakuru and Muranga.
However there is a problem in Kiambu(RV always thinks its Muranga) there might be a voter apathy like what was experinced in 1997.
Half of Nairobi (half of it is Gema)  like in 2013 and 2017 will vote for Ruto

Now this is based on the true feeling on ground and not some elected mps or senators who 90%  will never make it back to the next parliament.

Based on what - your gut feeling? How does universal MP churn rate have to do with Ruto? Even Murkomen might not come back so that's a moot point. I know a few Kikuyu who hate Ruto like Satan but that means nothing since they are just individuals. Nothing objective or factual says Ruto or Raila is famous in Mt Kenya. The next prince is Uhuru stooge PK who is leaning Raila.