Raila plan A-Z is BBI - to convince Uhuru to go for a useless PM position. Uhuru could (let not make Robina angrier) be playing along so he can enjoy unparalleled power - and then retire when his term-end. Robina has never told us, Raila plan B would be in that case.
Now Ruto has played this smartly. He could make up with Uhuru one afternoon and everything goes back to default
However, Ruto is playing Plan B. He started going directly to GEMA a long time ago - pre-2017 - and insisted on Jubilee party - and he has strong ground game there. I would have expected GEMA to be hesitant - and Ruto needing Uhuru to do the heavy lifting - but the opposite is now true. Ruto now needs Uhuru to say NO word.
Plan B was always going to be Luhya - and that is what Ruto is working on now. Luhya plus Ruto 25% - could take Ruto to 35-40% - and in a contest where GEMA have their candidates (NOT RAILA
- that is the impossible scenario) that could get your the No 1 or 2 - but still shy from 50%
Plan B will see three candidates Ruto, Raila, and GEMA candidate all trying to get 35% - and the re-run election.
Why is Ruto backing maDVD now. He is basically taking pressure off himself. He will want maDVD to be the decoy as he goes underground. As a clear frontrunner, he has been attracting all manner of opposition long before 2022, esp from ODM and Wiper.
Add to the fact that with introduction of Prime Minister post be it powerful or not . It will albeit enhance Rutos numbers say if he picks a candidate from Western or Lower Eastern for the post . You can already see re-alignments going on with Ford K , ANC and Rutos Jubilee agreeing to come up with a joint committee , dont be suprised next being Kalonzo . Just like in 2013 when all Pentagon Members ( Ruto , Mudavadi, Balala , Ngilu and Nyagah) abandoning Raila History is repeating itself with NASA stakeholders doing the same