Truth be told; Since 2017 Elections, Raila is the GREATEST WINNER in this Uhuru/Ruto/Raila saga. He was protesting, making lots of noise and being teargassed but after Handshake he has become powerborker. He's the like the Catholic Priests who sits in that dark confession box and listens to all your sins then INTERCEDES for your forgiveness. He has made loads of cash through pay offs; he his "feared" by almost everyone because he has direct line/24/7 to President. Raila's decree is like presidential order. His ODM party is unofficially the ruling party.
Then Raila's political machine is intact. While Uhuru and Ruto deflate Jubilee to plastic tent of bickering shrews, Raila/ODM are laughing it off. They are intact. They are planning on getting into government through GNU. BLESS THEM...
On the other hand, Ruto is the Greates Loser. We all expected him to be heir-apparent, to have an easier time as he constructed his 2022 campaign/coalition. He was expected to be the one playing politics and keeping Raila noisemaker at bay while Uhuru REIGNED IN PEACE waiting for his term to end. Now due to the worst backstabbing in Kenya's political history, Ruto finds himself silenced and marooned within his offices as he COMPLETELY CHANGES his plans and how he approach 2022.
Uhuru was expected to be President; top dog. He was expected to keep politicking to a minimum as he CONCENTRATED ON ACHIEVING HIS BIG 4 AGENDA. And finally retire a relaxed Son of Jomo whether with St. Annie Waiguru, or Kanze Dena or constitute a harem. Now we have him joining RAO to scheme to stay longer in power. He swings his executive rungu like an angry gorilla. He wants everyone to follow his edicts or he unsheath his sword. He has become a RAO dependant in terms of politics in Senate and National Assembly but he smiles like a Cheshire Cat SURE OF HIMSELF THAT HE WILL BE IN POWER CIRCLES FOR A WHILE TO COME.
So, If tomorrow RAO is "dumped", he actually won't be a loser. He can as easily switch his political machine to opposition mode and try make alliances. Throughout that period he has recouped his campaign fees and more. He has enjoyed power even if not constitutionally. So he would be okay..
For Uhuru, if all fails he can retire and claim he brought Raila close so as to "stabilize the country" without him having any other agenda. He would have served his 10years in power as President.
For Ruto, it's a bit difficult. He's heir-apparent and anything short of taking over would be seen as a loss. He cannot create an alliance with Raila unless he is to back Raila for President, but what he would be doing is DENYING HIMSELF A CHANCE TO PRESIDENT WHEN FACTORS FAVOURS HIM.
All in all, unbiased look at what has transpired since Handshake is that UHURU HAS MESSED RUTO BIGLY. Ruto consolation is that the Wanjikus in some key regions are mostly with him. And if he wins in 2022 HE WILL EMERGE AS THE GREATEST WINNER.
Well conjecture vs news as usual. Uhuru is perceiving a "constitutional moment" - it's on YouTube - Raila and ODM dream day and night about referendum. What evidence backs your take - referendum budget?