Some thoughts and rumblings...
1. Am now disabused of the fact that Gema elite fear Raila that much. They used him as a political scarecrow but i have come to realize they don't fear Raila. They fear his UNPREDICTABILITY but they don't REALLY fear him. Unfortunately or fortunately their campaign to use Raila as scarecrow has been very successful such that Raila is just the MOST polarizing figure to market in Mt. Kenya Region.
2. Gema elite and hosts of others TRULY FEAR RUTO AS PRESIDENT. This I have learnt in the last two years. They truly fear Ruto as a dictator. They view him as a pretender and once he takes power he will go after them. AND TRULY TRULY this is at the HEART OF KENYATTA FAMILY FEAR. This i have learnt of late from top honchos. Equally Raila's own Mafia doesn't want Ruto as President. They equally say "haka kamtu will be the worst dictator.."
3. I have also realized for all the talk of demonizing Raila, NO ONE HAS TRIED TO REPOSSESS his wealth. Few years ago, yours truly had an opportunity to witness how some deal was being executed between Gemas who publicly insult Raila and his henchmen. For Ruto, these mafias are ready to "repossess his property" and "sources of his funds..." That says a lot. Incredibly they still don't believe Ruto has GENUINE POLITICAL SUPPORT. They still believe he "bought people off..." Same thing they have NEVER ACCEPTED THAT RUTO TOOK OVER KALENJIN NATION. They are like; who's Ruto? he just got lucky and lied to people that he is Samoei..." Or such talk. That is part of the reason they want to INSTALL GIDEON.
So it is not for nothing that Ruto is viewed as leading HUSTLER NATION VS DYNASTIES; I have realised Dynasties are the ones truly obsessed with their entitlement. It is truly some ideological battle here.
Even RIGHT NOW, their attitude is "wacha watu waone who's Rais uone ata Kales wakiachana na Ruto..." Unfortunately these are fantasies but from people who are actually making decisions or have influences.
4. From where i sit, I submit that Uhuru's MAIN CONCERN is to protect their wealth and they view Ruto as simply not trustworthy (as some dangerous usurper). And therefore they get into alliance with Raila to neutralize Ruto and at the same time maneuver to still be in power. If all these fail: then Raila is more trustworthy in protecting their interests than Ruto. I know this seems strange but from associating with some of these people for the last few years, I am truly confident that's what's at the heart of all this.
It is like Moi who made people believe that he was always against Gema, but at the end he schemed to have Gema elite take over from him.
5. GM is being "promoted" and given visibility so as to "prepare Kalenjins into accepting GM as leader of Kales..", if not NOW then LATER such that by the time Uhuru/Raila are done with their PM/President combo, Ruto will be "finished..."
Yes I agree, selling Raila is crossing the redline, and Ruto should not worry about that. I also don't think Uhuru is into selling Raila. GEMA elite fears Raila more than GEMA laity.
So we still need to figure out the Uhuru gameplan here. If he is playing politics so he can bank as much money as possible before retiring - then Ruto has to avoid any confrontation with him. Give him enough time to rule and loot as he wish.
If the plan is to prop Gideon Moi - Ruto can go to bed and wake up as president 2yrs from now.
If the plan is to prop another GEMA or even Kalonzo - Ruto has to think about plan B that includes working with Raila. That plan is most dangerous because GEMA could finally listen to Uhuru.
If the plan is to amend the Katiba and ensure Uhuru remains as PORK - that won't happen - that nuclear civil war option
If it comes back as PM - that too is laughable -