I find most political analysts or pundits in kenya a bit dumb - but Manyora is the dumbest of them all - I never waste my time on him. Uhuru to remain in 2022 - how? Will he remove the term limits - nope - end of story. Will Uhuru become a glorified Duale for President Raila - = that got to be the funniest joke in Sub-Sahara Africa.
it's going mostly as we predicted. Pundit once again misses the target by a mile. Spin works up until it runs headfast into reality
Ruto fixed: Uhuru to remain after 2022
These are the intellectuals. Manyiora is a bit like a polished version of Ngatia wa Scandinavia. He shares some known facts, and then some wild conclusions. He also brings in Kalonzo, Mudavadi without mention without mentioning how their base would be captured. Though I suspect Luhyas long moved into Raila column with/without their so-called leaders. Kalonzo may also be facing serious challenges in ukambani.
It's true that kamwana does not want to continue with the hustler. Beyond that, things like what or who he wants instead, it's just too complicated to say without relying heavily on conjecture.
Yes Manyora is a useless dimwit. I suspect these folks read blogs and then posture - plagiarism and intellectual dishonesty. Only Ndii and Ngunyi have abit of grey cells - but they are too compromised (Ngunyi) or jaundiced (Ndii) to do honest analysis.
Reality: Baba has a big headway in non-GEMA over Mobutu. Even in Mt Kenya Pundit's stories are just that - stories and conjecture. Baba is a sure hand in about 35% of the the country - Luo, Luhya, Gusii, Mijikenda, MATUSA and huge swathes of NFD.
In Ukambani Kalonzo cannot show any winning formula - the governors are with Raila and can slice off a good chunk. Although Kalonzo is still wishy-washy his actions do not indicate any desire to toil in the opposition or hang with Ruto.
Places like Gusii Ruto is DOA unless he can miraculously rope in Matiang'i, Ongeri, etc - dyed in the wool Uhuru diehards.
Western Ruto has Barasa, Echesa and Khalwale
- against Oparanya and all the governors and senators back Raila. Raila scored 95% of Luhya in 2017.
NFD - Raila got a good chunk I think 40%. But the 60% Jubilee is not all with Ruto. People like Yusuf Haji, Ali Roba, Ukur Yatani are the heavy punchers and are clearly pro-Baba.
Maa you see ole Lenkus and ole Kinas - even ole Tunai long deserted the hustler. Don't even mention Tobiko and Mau poisoned chalice.
In Coast Ruto has Jumwa and Jicho Pevu
- against Joho, Kingi, Samboja and the shebang.
If Pundit could just lower the gigantic blinkers for a sec- which is a big ask - Raila has a runaway lead over the hustler.