Of course you can restrict us to Mt Kenya but BBI is a Kenyan agenda. The co-author is Luo. The arch- protagonist is Kalenjin.
1. The subject is Uhuru's plan and it's acceptance in Mt. Kenya. Therefore no way to avoid mentioning and getting into Gema political intricacies.
I am only watching the players and their motions. Many big kahuna have fled Ruto's camp. You can google it. When it makes it into the mainstream media know it's real.
2. Outside Gema, its you who is overestimating Raila's support. Indeed a significant percentage of his own base don't understand the final intent of BBI and why would Raila accept "Ceremonial Presidency" and give power to someone who has been wielding it for 10yrs. So by looks of things it's you who is over rating BBI acceptance.
Maybe the money. Of course they can't organize rallies from their pockets. Intimidation I thought so too but look at an event like CoG
secret ballot. Ruto's crew were routed. Also the enthusiasm with which wa Iria et al are drumming BBI and trash-talking Tangatanga is abit more than just fear. Maybe the cash is alot? Politicians are greedy.
Look also at the Senate Waititu impeachment - it was a rout. That includes Mt Kenya senators - only Linturi, Kihika and I think Laikipia man backed Waititu despite Murkomen spirited attempts to save him.
Kiambu MCAs impeached Waititu - that's 2/3 yet Ruto is supposed to be wildly popular there
Discuss. He is no longer the annointed one so they have re-aligned.
3. Most Governors have been cowed. They don't have a choice. You keep mentioning somebody like Wa Iria and yet he has his own party ready for launch when "things cool down." Governors are also being given between 20m to 30m to organise BBI meetings. Some of that cash they must grease Baba's Office. This is no longer a secret.
Gicheha Farm was not a public meeting. It was chosen Kikuyu elders and Handshake crew lead by Kinyanjui. Salgaa is a Kalenjin area... not Gema. I would expect hostility if I was Uhuru.
I don't buy the media blackout stories anymore than the public vetting. Imagine a dangerous place like Dusit memes were doing rounds on Twitter... such a vetting would be all over. Nor can you bar journalists without attracting KUJ and such protests. Huo ni uongo. Also there is alot of independent and pro-Ruto media... even Raila and NASA had fair coverage in Jubilee 1.0. Except the Raila swearing-in blackout. Ruto bought K24 and Kameme or Inoro according to Pundit. However I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the various media ownerships.
Tangatanga are desperate to maintain the "tuko pamoja" lie which Uhuru wants to kill thus the nyahunyo. Uhurutopia is the oxygen for their narrative. I could be wrong to imagine they don't have a right to stalk him. Joho attempted that sometimes and faced it rough.
4. Definitely and without a doubt County Commissioners, DCs and Chiefs are now vetting those who can attend President meetings. For example, those who attended Uhuru meeting in Nakuru Gicheha Farm were vetted by Governor Lee and County Commissioner. Then they were given 10k each. When he visited Salgaa to launch Cement Factory same Governor and County Commissioner vetted those in attendance. Most were actually akina Mama. This group didn't get anything and were really annoyed. At Nyandarua when local MP and MCA were denied entry almost half of the public walked out. You cannot read or watch such news because nowadays BBI must be shown in great light and Ruto as villain. This is obvious from media coverage. Any journalist would tell you he/she cannot file anything negative about Uhuru or Raila as some editors will just cut it out.
It is Mlolongo MPs who are being intimidated. Ruto rigged them in. Those who play neutral are not bothered. The defectors have shown unparalleled passion for BBI. Waiguru, Kinyanjui and wa Iria are serious BBI champions. A few Kaninis and Sabinas too. There were rumors about KJ but am not sure - he seems to have gone quiet. Isaak Ruto's present leaning is unconfirmed - Big Ruto sent him to RSA for stitches a while back over less weighty philosophical differences.
5. More importantly ask yourself why Uhuru's government would actually intimidate people from his own backyard? Some spend their resources and time to campaign for him and yet he is now using Nyahunyo on them. Why!?
I have not seen the maximum security. Videos of Gema cheering Uhuru at ad hoc stopovers in Bahati (the diaspora supposedly intoxicated with Ruto), Ol Kalou, etc are all over YouTube. They were cheering as he tore into Ruto, Kimani Ngunjiri and Tangatanga. No hostilities whatsoever. I challenged you and Pundit to demo that vetting story. Like we know Kuria was hounded in Kitui cause it was all over YouTube. Where are the videos of wananchi being vetted? Instead we have one static snap of a stadium gate. Kenyans are digital that is why we have all those unprofessional Kuria and Uhuru videos. Or Kibicho pulled them from YouTube?
No, there is no "hostile ground" - that is Ruto propaganda. Because he has no real following.
6. And yes, County Commissioners and chiefs are used to vet also because of security reasons. Because even NIS advices the President that "the ground is hostile" and who knows some hothead may have his own idea. Now imagine having maximum security to visit your own backyard and yet he now doesn't need that in Nyanza. What does that tells you?
Let me explain again. BBI is popular in non-Gema for the same exact reason it is unpopular in Gema: it levels the playing field. That is why Raila is having a field day marketing it. You have seen Murkomen and Kuria gate-crushing the rallies while endlessly threatening but never holding their anti-BBI counterrallies. Why pretend to support such an unpopular item? That is as ridiculous as stalking the hated Uhuru and crying about ejection. Or blaming Kimemia for their woes.
Once parliamentary is passed it will be Uhuru for PM. Gema will fall in line - it will be a stampede - forget the one-by-one filing in now. Raila is on the clock so he is ready to retire as ceremonial president. In a coalition arrangement he gets good say and patronage much better than right now where CSs appointed by Ruto are saluting him
That is the ace against Ruto - willingness to sacrifice. Parliamentary and the Uhuru contribution to bringing down Ruto are big payoffs besides that Gema are increasingly filing behind him. In any case Raila was hopeless before Trojan 2 - we were all waiting for Acting President Ruto as Uhuru sun-bathes in Hawaii.
How is Kiunjuri faring? Any massive TSP rallies?
7. Finally, BBI success will be determined in Mt. Kenya region. Reason being, if Uhuru cannot bring Gema numbers/MPs on the table what will he be doing exactly in a Raila's coalition? It will not make sense. And when Uhuru and his delusional team realises that then they will adjust accordingly: they accept Ruto is incoming President and be prepared for it. After all they are known opportunists who can switch sides in a blink.
Alternative is for Uhuru to help Raila force through BBI amendments knowing very well he himself will have no other role.