Let try help you.Overhauling a constitutions like BBI & PMI wants done is not easy thing. If it's just retouching it - it would be possible. I wish PMI had restricted itself to a one issues at time.
The last overhaul - was done in 2010 - after many years of constitutional debate - 30yrs of serious opposition agitation and it took a war in 2007 to shock kenyans enough to do it.
What does Ruto/Jubilee wants
- they don't want constitution changed. Why would Jubilee want a constitution that has worked for them changed?PMI is just a pawn in the game with BBI. PMI will be killed together with BBI.
Anyway my predictions.
a) PMI1) PMI will pass counties (because of sync issues with BBI - if they had both come at same them - Ruto/Jubilee as the majority would have killed them both).
2) Parliament will use all reasons to deny PMI a chance to proceed. It will be court battles but they will likely sit on it until BBI comes - somewhere in 2021
if ever they make tha far.
b) BBI1) BBI once released will be shoot down in parliament - it won't even pass committee stage - for being illegal ab initio. Jubilee majority in parliament (who is Duale
) do not want it. In fact Uhuru will probably sit on BBI report
.
I can tell majority Jubilee Mps have been waiting and waiting for BBI - so they can give Uhuru & Raila the middle finger.2) Raila will attempt to go the OKOA BBI REDUX 'Popular Initiative'.
3) Raila will really struggle to collect BBI signatures....they may not achieve 1M signature. Last time they failed when CORD was stronger.
4) Raila will struggle again in IEBC - for verification. BBI will be robustly opposed by Ruto men.
5) If BBI get to counties - it will die a premature death. Ruto will easily marshall 24 counties to kill it.
6) If BBI get to parliament - it will die PMI death or both will be voted on - and rejected.
7) IEBC will NOT BE funded to conduct referendum in 2011 or 2022 - just months to general election - both will be bundled together with 2022 elections.
Lastly, if BBI passes - the new PORK - becomes ceremonial - PM head of gov - if PMI succeeds - you know the drill. Obviously both will fail terribly.
Jubilee Ruto running most likely with Kikuyu PM (Kiunjuri) will begin a new term with Uhuru going to deal with lung cancer.
Raila will know better than bring NyokoNyoko on Ruto gov - and will quietly retire.
Bottomline:Uhuru is playing along - stringing up Raila - so he can govern in peacePundit: here's my prediction and let's wait. At least this one has a timeline unlike your MAD horizon.
1. Punguza will flop in the counties and if not then it flop in parliament.
2. BBI will pass counties and get approved by both houses - no referendum will be needed.
Your boy need to get ready to deputize Babu or Uhuru as DPM. Once his green movement - which has a nobody for Kibra candidate - wind up with 50 MPs.