Uhuru men cannot take on Ruto.

[hk]

Uhuru should sell shares in companies like Safaricom, Kenya Pipeline, National Oil & other such jewels - now that we cannot borrow anymore - his big mistake has been to stop public investment. Once we get below 50% GDP to Debt - we can leverage more. That is what Kibaki did anyway - borrowed whenever he could - and sell gov properties when he couldn't.

We cannot afford austerity measures.

There's no region of kenya that's happy with jubilee regime. Given that we're now entering the tough debt repayment period, its going to get worse as money circulation(liquidity) shrink.  Maybe 2022 will be more like 2002 where people coalesce around one candidate to beat the ruling party. The wild card is referendum.

The prescription you are offering is doomed. Doubling down on supply driven infrastructure investment will actually kill the little vibrancy left in the economy. For example we have invested  billions in energy, yet consumption isn't growing despite increased connections. And to make matters worse the cost of electricity isn't coming down. Ethiopia tried your prescription, recorded 10% growth for 10yrs but at the end they were forced to halt new projects, sell their crown jewels, and liberalize their economy(Ethiopia is in the process). The reason being debt and development binge that's not driven by private sector always end up badly with debt hangovers, idle or underutilized infrastructure.
Kibaki maintained budget deficit of below 3%, this ensured private sector dynamism with good credit growth. And the government wasn't crowding out the private sector. Jubilee is running a budget deficit of 8%. Therein lies the problem. A government led growth isn't sustainable, especially when the government is as corrupt as jubilee.
However I'd agree we need to liquidate each and every equity government holds, whether the parastatal is profitable or not. Not only to raise capital to pare down debt but also to reduce crony capitalism.

[RV Pundit]

My friend - Ethiopia is still growing at nearly double digits - China did this for 50yrs - public investment is the only way to quickly turns things over - private sector trickle down economy doesn't work - when you have a tiny private sector. And yes selling those gov parastals will help build the private sector. Right now our greatest asset is PUBLIC sector. That need to grow. Once we are mature developed country - we can go trickle down.

We have huge infrastructure deficit - how can we talk about idle or excess capacity - are we US or Germany or China? KPLC excess capacity is just inefficient - selling power at 21 cents usd a unit - would depress demand everywhere - otherwise if the prices drop to 8-10 bob by removing thermal and expense power - we can start using hot showers, cooking githeri on it, and companies can start manufacturing with it - but now people just use the minimal power - some don't even use iron boxes - preffering to use charcoal iron box

Uhuru should sell shares in companies like Safaricom, Kenya Pipeline, National Oil & other such jewels - now that we cannot borrow anymore - his big mistake has been to stop public investment. Once we get below 50% GDP to Debt - we can leverage more. That is what Kibaki did anyway - borrowed whenever he could - and sell gov properties when he couldn't.

We cannot afford austerity measures.

There's no region of kenya that's happy with jubilee regime. Given that we're now entering the tough debt repayment period, its going to get worse as money circulation(liquidity) shrink.  Maybe 2022 will be more like 2002 where people coalesce around one candidate to beat the ruling party. The wild card is referendum.

The prescription you are offering is doomed. Doubling down on supply driven infrastructure investment will actually kill the little vibrancy left in the economy. For example we have invested  billions in energy, yet consumption isn't growing despite increased connections. And to make matters worse the cost of electricity isn't coming down. Ethiopia tried your prescription, recorded 10% growth for 10yrs but at the end they were forced to halt new projects, sell their crown jewels, and liberalize their economy(Ethiopia is in the process). The reason being debt and development binge that's not driven by private sector always end up badly with debt hangovers, idle or underutilized infrastructure.
Kibaki maintained budget deficit of below 3%, this ensured private sector dynamism with good credit growth. And the government wasn't crowding out the private sector. Jubilee is running a budget deficit of 8%. Therein lies the problem. A government led growth isn't sustainable, especially when the government is as corrupt as jubilee.
However I'd agree we need to liquidate each and every equity government holds, whether the parastatal is profitable or not. Not only to raise capital to pare down debt but also to reduce crony capitalism.

[Kadudu]

I know you believe I mean evil for Kenya, but I can assure you even if I do not live there currently I seem to have the country more at heart than you who cheers on as the country is plundered left right and centre.

The stimulus programmes will not work in Kenya under the current enviroment. The whole economy is just set up for a few to steal. How many scandals have we had since 2013? Please do not write here no money was lost. Selling parastatals will also not work as most likely they will be sold for a song and then exchange hands again with a handsome profit for the middlemen.

Kadudu I know you've been waiting for many years for kenya to collapse to you can laugh LOUD in freezing cold German but it will be some more years of waiting.

[RV Pundit]

I care about OUTPUTS - those are details - outputs - economy has grown consistently by 6% - it's grown from around 55B to 95Bs since 2013 - I care about fact that electrification has grown from 30% to 70% (world fastest electrification) - KPLC which had like 2.5M customers in 2013 - now has about 7M customers - I care about the many low seal bitumen roads I now see everywhere I go - I can tell you I no longer need 4WD to travel to shags and to see my farms. I care about TIVET enrolling 300,000 students. I care about improving security - those Nairobi cameras are working - police having new cars, insurance and others - seem a bit more motivated.

I can go on and on - but I am not going to get bogged down by 10% that get stolen - that is given including in private companies like ours or my private business - I can write a book of the employee thievery from my small business - and you too can write another - but that never really stop you from getting stuff done unless you're a moron without controls & risk mitigation.

I know you believe I mean evil for Kenya, but I can assure you even if I do not live there currently I seem to have the country more at heart than you who cheers on as the country is plundered left right and centre.

The stimulus programmes will not work in Kenya under the current enviroment. The whole economy is just set up for a few to steal. How many scandals have we had since 2013? Please do not write here no money was lost. Selling parastatals will also not work as most likely they will be sold for a song and then exchange hands again with a handsome profit for the middlemen.

[hk]

My friend - Ethiopia is still growing at nearly double digits - China did this for 50yrs - public investment is the only way to quickly turns things over - private sector trickle down economy doesn't work - when you have a tiny private sector. And yes selling those gov parastals will help build the private sector. Right now our greatest asset is PUBLIC sector. That need to grow. Once we are mature developed country - we can go trickle down.

We have huge infrastructure deficit - how can we talk about idle or excess capacity - are we US or Germany or China? KPLC excess capacity is just inefficient - selling power at 21 cents usd a unit - would depress demand everywhere - otherwise if the prices drop to 8-10 bob by removing thermal and expense power - we can start using hot showers, cooking githeri on it, and companies can start manufacturing with it - but now people just use the minimal power - some don't even use iron boxes - preffering to use charcoal iron box

For starters Ethiopia is growing at 8% and that growth is pegged on the government privatizing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/ethiopia-premier-sees-state-asset-sales-boosting-economic-growth . After the huge supply side driven infrastructure spending Ethiopia can't even pay the loans  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/ethiopia-economy-imbalanced-needs-corrective-actions-abiy-says . The same thing is happening in kenya. The huge investments aren't producing enough revenue to payoff the loans. Take energy, we invested in generation and distribution instead of transmission so we have expensive power instead evacuating cheap wind power and geothermal. This would have reduced the cost of electricity thus increasing consumption. Demand driven infrastructure is something like fibre. Kibaki invested in undersea cable, which led to lower cost of internet. This has driven more demand, where fibre is now readily available even in rural towns. All that investment is by private sector. The jubilee 5.7% average GDP growth is the most hated robust growth. Why, because its not being felt by the public or private sector. What's important is rising incomes, revenue and profits, driven by increase in productivity. BTW government represent about 13% of the economy the rest is private sector, so private sector isn't small. 

[RV Pundit]

8% is near double digit - lets us not nitpick. So far Ethiopia have talked big about privatization but has not done anything there. Ethiopia have grown since 1990s at double digit based on that model - that Chinese has used. Kenya can and ought to follow that model. Kibaki and his trickle down economics - never really helped --- the economy was growing at 4% on average eventually - it's only Jubilee that has sustained 6% economic growth the last few years.

Anyway I cannot wait for my man Ruto to get into the helm...the man is Kagame/Meles/Museveni..at their heydeys...sharp as whip and will grow the economy by double digit.

Few problems at KPLC - can easily be sorted with strong leadership - otherwise we need to continue investing in power projects - our power generation is not even 3000MW and we are talking excess capacity. IT JUST LACK OF THINKING. Most of the idle power is generated at night - all you need is to sell it for 3bob - rather than letting it go to waste. in any case KPLC has to pay for that idle power. Broadband has expanded because of such ideas...night bundles and etc......maximizing the capacity. But we have KPLC owned by Mama Ngina, NSSF and other idiots just stiffling growth.

We need someone like Dr Ruto who can provide real leadership - not absent leadership like kibaki - or drunken one like Uhuru. Jubilee has managed to achieve a lot because Ruto was there from 5am till 10pms making sure stuff was getting done.Obviously he also made tonnes of money in the process that alarmed the drunken sailors. Hopefully Matiangi will fill that void - and of course he will grow incredibly rich in the process - as reward for fixing or making stuff happen.

My friend - Ethiopia is still growing at nearly double digits - China did this for 50yrs - public investment is the only way to quickly turns things over - private sector trickle down economy doesn't work - when you have a tiny private sector. And yes selling those gov parastals will help build the private sector. Right now our greatest asset is PUBLIC sector. That need to grow. Once we are mature developed country - we can go trickle down.

We have huge infrastructure deficit - how can we talk about idle or excess capacity - are we US or Germany or China? KPLC excess capacity is just inefficient - selling power at 21 cents usd a unit - would depress demand everywhere - otherwise if the prices drop to 8-10 bob by removing thermal and expense power - we can start using hot showers, cooking githeri on it, and companies can start manufacturing with it - but now people just use the minimal power - some don't even use iron boxes - preffering to use charcoal iron box

For starters Ethiopia is growing at 8% and that growth is pegged on the government privatizing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/ethiopia-premier-sees-state-asset-sales-boosting-economic-growth . After the huge supply side driven infrastructure spending Ethiopia can't even pay the loans  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/ethiopia-economy-imbalanced-needs-corrective-actions-abiy-says . The same thing is happening in kenya. The huge investments aren't producing enough revenue to payoff the loans. Take energy, we invested in generation and distribution instead of transmission so we have expensive power instead evacuating cheap wind power and geothermal. This would have reduced the cost of electricity thus increasing consumption. Demand driven infrastructure is something like fibre. Kibaki invested in undersea cable, which led to lower cost of internet. This has driven more demand, where fibre is now readily available even in rural towns. All that investment is by private sector. The jubilee 5.7% average GDP growth is the most hated robust growth. Why, because its not being felt by the public or private sector. What's important is rising incomes, revenue and profits, driven by increase in productivity. BTW government represent about 13% of the economy the rest is private sector, so private sector isn't small. 

[hk]

8% is near double digit - lets us not nitpick. So far Ethiopia have talked big about privatization but has not done anything there. Ethiopia have grown since 1990s at double digit based on that model - that Chinese has used. Kenya can and ought to follow that model. Kibaki and his trickle down economics - never really helped --- the economy was growing at 4% on average eventually - it's only Jubilee that has sustained 6% economic growth the last few years.

Anyway I cannot wait for my man Ruto to get into the helm...the man is Kagame/Meles/Museveni..at their heydeys...sharp as whip and will grow the economy by double digit.

Few problems at KPLC - can easily be sorted with strong leadership - otherwise we need to continue investing in power projects - our power generation is not even 3000MW and we are talking excess capacity. IT JUST LACK OF THINKING. Most of the idle power is generated at night - all you need is to sell it for 3bob - rather than letting it go to waste. in any case KPLC has to pay for that idle power. Broadband has expanded because of such ideas...night bundles and etc......maximizing the capacity. But we have KPLC owned by Mama Ngina, NSSF and other idiots just stiffling growth.

We need someone like Dr Ruto who can provide real leadership - not absent leadership like kibaki - or drunken one like Uhuru. Jubilee has managed to achieve a lot because Ruto was there from 5am till 10pms making sure stuff was getting done.Obviously he also made tonnes of money in the process that alarmed the drunken sailors. Hopefully Matiangi will fill that void - and of course he will grow incredibly rich in the process - as reward for fixing or making stuff happen.

Pundit get serious. Kibaki grew the economy by average of 6.5%, even hit 10% 2011. Jubilee average is 5.2%. The moronic policy of connecting electricity to people who cannot afford is one of the reason why electricity prices are high. If Ruto idea is this grandiose projects and getting government involved in everything, then kenya doesn't need that. The era of excessive borrowing,high taxes and spending is over. Question, if this high spending is working, how come government had to raise taxes last yr? How come with all that "growth" the government can't even collect $16b even though the target is $18b? Most of all those projects that were initiated have stalled which is driving their cost even higher. If Ruto is the engine that has driven jubilee regime, the more reason why he shouldn't be president. For my money both uhuru and ruto are the problem. Basically the entire jubilee regime is the problem.

[Pajero]

DP Ruto during Jubilee Manifesto launch: On Galana Kulalu project, will start rolling out 30,000 bags of maize from July 2017.

March 2019: How many has Galana Kulalu produced?

Why was Ruto being used to address areas of Jubilee that had lies? pic.twitter.com/mJMH2EsUbG

— Karani Mutonga (@Karanimutonga) March 12, 2019

[RV Pundit]

I'll let the economic growth rate debate slide for now - I'll get the figures - but for me kibaki did 4% - and Jubilee are doing 6%.

Now let's talk electricity. You keep repeating the lie that new poorer connections are the problem. Gov subsidized the new connections after getting a loan from WB (Last Mile 1 & 2). KPLC has never done anything there that should affect their bottomline. They should have benefited from extras customers. But they haven't because they are a inefficient monopoly. Uhuru if he wasn't drunk  or conflicted - should have focused on that.

You cannot talk about excess or idle capacity in country like kenya with pent-up demand. Telcom industry has done well because of competition otherwise Telkom Kenya was mostly idle. I know we cannot easily privatize KPLC - but we can ask them to get serious - and sell excess power cheaply - Gov has started doing that - by lowering night time tarriffs - they need to do more.

If kenya want to develop fast; it has to follow what Ethiopia is doing. Meles Zenawi grew the Ethiopian economy thro public investment. China did the same.

I believe Ruto has the Meles Zenawi brains to transform Kenya. Ethiopia has grown the economy at dizzying double digits for what 30 decades - and when they have small problem in 1-2yrs - we want to dismiss such a model that works!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If Kenya want to succeed - we need to study models that are relevant to us  - and not get into developed world models.

Pundit get serious. Kibaki grew the economy by average of 6.5%, even hit 10% 2011. Jubilee average is 5.2%. The moronic policy of connecting electricity to people who cannot afford is one of the reason why electricity prices are high. If Ruto idea is this grandiose projects and getting government involved in everything, then kenya doesn't need that. The era of excessive borrowing,high taxes and spending is over. Question, if this high spending is working, how come government had to raise taxes last yr? How come with all that "growth" the government can't even collect $16b even though the target is $18b? Most of all those projects that were initiated have stalled which is driving their cost even higher. If Ruto is the engine that has driven jubilee regime, the more reason why he shouldn't be president. For my money both uhuru and ruto are the problem. Basically the entire jubilee regime is the problem.

[RV Pundit]

There is nothing wrong with kulana galana - gov should keep trying out ideas, failing and then fixing them. People wanted Galana to sort our maize problems in a year. All for mere 70M dollars. That is just not possible.

Kenyans need to stop talking about 1B or 20B kshs - that is just nonsense. We need 1-5B dollars project.

1B kshs is just 10M dollars - small money now - that can only buy you 10 houses in Nairobi.

Our budget now is going 30B dollars - and here we are talking about 10-200M  dollars - like it's end of the world.

DP Ruto during Jubilee Manifesto launch: On Galana Kulalu project, will start rolling out 30,000 bags of maize from July 2017.

March 2019: How many has Galana Kulalu produced?

Why was Ruto being used to address areas of Jubilee that had lies? pic.twitter.com/mJMH2EsUbG

— Karani Mutonga (@Karanimutonga) March 12, 2019

[Pajero]

There is also nothing wrong with looting & misusing public money,after all the money in question is just 7 billion for dams.

[Kadudu]

Peanuts.

There is also nothing wrong with looting & misusing public money,after all the money in question is just 7 billion for dams.

[Pajero]

[hk]

I'll let the economic growth rate debate slide for now - I'll get the figures - but for me kibaki did 4% - and Jubilee are doing 6%.

Now let's talk electricity. You keep repeating the lie that new poorer connections are the problem. Gov subsidized the new connections after getting a loan from WB (Last Mile 1 & 2). KPLC has never done anything there that should affect their bottomline. They should have benefited from extras customers. But they haven't because they are a inefficient monopoly. Uhuru if he wasn't drunk  or conflicted - should have focused on that.

You cannot talk about excess or idle capacity in country like kenya with pent-up demand. Telcom industry has done well because of competition otherwise Telkom Kenya was mostly idle. I know we cannot easily privatize KPLC - but we can ask them to get serious - and sell excess power cheaply - Gov has started doing that - by lowering night time tarriffs - they need to do more.

If kenya want to develop fast; it has to follow what Ethiopia is doing. Meles Zenawi grew the Ethiopian economy thro public investment. China did the same.

I believe Ruto has the Meles Zenawi brains to transform Kenya. Ethiopia has grown the economy at dizzying double digits for what 30 decades - and when they have small problem in 1-2yrs - we want to dismiss such a model that works!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If Kenya want to succeed - we need to study models that are relevant to us  - and not get into developed world models.

There's no doubt that the electricity rate  mainly to new connections to  the poor are being subsidized https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Poor-homes-to-pay-more-as-electricity-subsidy-scrapped-/539546-4256198-5qtx2t/index.html . Not just connection but the rate they pay electricity. Its no wonder despite increased connection the consumption hasn't increased.  I understand you're keynesian and believe in heavy government spending. The model we should follow is indonesian(without corruption) or chile.

[Nefertiti]

Ethiopia is still dirt poor famine nation and that shows how the model is imperfect. Pure public sector growth at private sector expense.

China model has benefits over Ethiopia or Kenya -

1) DUO public+private model - massive state banks lend cheap to private sector - leading to income growth for big middle class. Jubilee has stifled SME with credit crunch.

2 EXPORT driven as factory of the world which is driven by manufacturing - efficient public sector unlike Kenya  - and private manufacturers.

3. Political STABILITY - means consistent policy for decades with the ability to execute big ideas is BIG LEVERAGE. One child policy, low wages and no unions strike nonsense,  eminent domains, hanging the corrupt, name it. Xi Jin Ping just "ordered" all taxis operators to buy electric vehicles in 3yrs as Trump tries to impress his blue collar base with reviving coal mining. You have giant Chinese MNCs like Huawei blowing dust on Apple n Cisco...  public-private combo.

Pundit seems sold on China or Ethiopia model - not a perfect fit for Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

The problem is not poor customers - it's inefficient KPLC. Everywhere most power is consumed by few customers - the minning/cement/manufacturers - and KPLC has about 600 such customers consuming 80% of power - they need to figure out how to sell idle capacity. Part of problem is of course long term IPP they signed - I can't blame them for that - but over time as those contracts ends and we switch off expensive sources of power - KPLC can start buying the cheapest source.

In short this nice problem to have.

I believe that a developing country should massively invest in infrastructure and social spending. That requires ambitious leadership will to start throwing down 10B dollars worth of project....like SGR.

There's no doubt that the electricity rate  mainly to new connections to  the poor are being subsidized https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Poor-homes-to-pay-more-as-electricity-subsidy-scrapped-/539546-4256198-5qtx2t/index.html . Not just connection but the rate they pay electricity. Its no wonder despite increased connection the consumption hasn't increased.  I understand you're keynesian and believe in heavy government spending. The model we should follow is indonesian(without corruption) or chile.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit- Ruto can't solve population overgrowth, corruption, political model. In fact he would exacerbate them. He might be efficient but I haven't seen anything to convince me of his vision. Kenya is not China.

[RV Pundit]

Ethiopia is still poor - but knowing where they have come from - literally the BOTTOM of the world - I think they use to be ranked either the last or 2nd last economy in the world and in nearly anything - to where it is now - is truly admirable.

Meles Zenawi did it. The Ethiopian economy has grown at double digit for nearly 30yrs - and at their worst - it grows by 8%!!!! just imagine that. Their economy has grown 10 times in the last 25yrs.

Let us not go far for models. We should just drive to Moyale - and start observing what those Ethiopians are doing right. And you'll find their ambitious public sector driven development.

While we are arguing about extra 1,000mw - Ethiopia are thinking 10,000MW - their consumption is nothing like kenya - but those are great problems to have - excess capacity - can always be exported or investors can be invited to use it.

Ethiopia is still dirt poor famine nation and that shows how the model is imperfect. Pure public sector growth at private sector expense.

China model has benefits over Ethiopia or Kenya -

1) DUO public+private model - massive state banks lend cheap to private sector - leading to income growth for big middle class. Jubilee has stifled SME with credit crunch.

2 EXPORT driven as factory of the world which is driven by manufacturing - efficient public sector unlike Kenya  - and private manufacturers.

3. Political STABILITY - means consistent policy for decades with the ability to execute big ideas is BIG LEVERAGE. One child policy, low wages and no unions strike nonsense,  eminent domains, hanging the corrupt, name it. Xi Jin Ping just "ordered" all taxis operators to buy electric vehicles in 3yrs as Trump tries to impress his blue collar base with reviving coal mining. You have giant Chinese MNCs like Huawei blowing dust on Apple n Cisco...  public-private combo.

Pundit seems sold on China or Ethiopia model - not a perfect fit for Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

First kenya has no pop overgrowth problem - we have solved that.I think inflection point was 2016 - for first time ever we had 0-5 age cohort being less than 5-10 - so we have turned the corner than to impressive population controls started in 1970s - family planning, contraceptive and name - one of the best in Africa.

We have corruption and ethnic-politics problem. I believe both problems can be solved through economic growth (corruption) and better management of politics (ethnicity - you need someone adept in politics like Ruto - not Kibaki).

I think Ruto track record speaks for itself. I know you're one such long time hater you blinkers are always on so I am going to waste time and repeat again.

I believe Ruto understands the problem and the solution. I have heard him speaks - and I am convinced in him - kenya will finally get a Meles Zenawi or Museveni or Kagame...political player so dominant and yet so intelligent & trans-formative. Jubilee has done well thanks to Ruto staying on the ball...otherwise we all know Uhuru.

Yes Ruto will probably skim the cream...but why care about the CREAM - you've got the milk - or you need cheese too?!
 

Pundit- Ruto can't solve population overgrowth, corruption, political model. In fact he would exacerbate them. He might be efficient but I haven't seen anything to convince me of his vision. Kenya is not China.

[Nefertiti]

I'll let the economic growth rate debate slide for now - I'll get the figures - but for me kibaki did 4% - and Jubilee are doing 6%.

Now let's talk electricity. You keep repeating the lie that new poorer connections are the problem. Gov subsidized the new connections after getting a loan from WB (Last Mile 1 & 2). KPLC has never done anything there that should affect their bottomline. They should have benefited from extras customers. But they haven't because they are a inefficient monopoly. Uhuru if he wasn't drunk  or conflicted - should have focused on that.

You cannot talk about excess or idle capacity in country like kenya with pent-up demand. Telcom industry has done well because of competition otherwise Telkom Kenya was mostly idle. I know we cannot easily privatize KPLC - but we can ask them to get serious - and sell excess power cheaply - Gov has started doing that - by lowering night time tarriffs - they need to do more.

If kenya want to develop fast; it has to follow what Ethiopia is doing. Meles Zenawi grew the Ethiopian economy thro public investment. China did the same.

I believe Ruto has the Meles Zenawi brains to transform Kenya. Ethiopia has grown the economy at dizzying double digits for what 30 decades - and when they have small problem in 1-2yrs - we want to dismiss such a model that works!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If Kenya want to succeed - we need to study models that are relevant to us  - and not get into developed world models.

There's no doubt that the electricity rate  mainly to new connections to  the poor are being subsidized https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Poor-homes-to-pay-more-as-electricity-subsidy-scrapped-/539546-4256198-5qtx2t/index.html . Not just connection but the rate they pay electricity. Its no wonder despite increased connection the consumption hasn't increased.  I understand you're keynesian and believe in heavy government spending. The model we should follow is indonesian(without corruption) or chile.

Yup. Chinese banks are worth USD40T - biggest in the world - with cheap massive lending to private sector. Their debt is local - private sector owes public banks. Public spending is funded by exports - debt-to-GDP 16% - not borrowing.