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[Dear Mami]

I find some positions here very naive when we are back to fighting for fundamentals. It's just a more elaborate "economy before institutions" argument. What does it matter which fancy policies any side comes up with to show Kenyans when we are dealing with issues like preventing the slide to dictatorship, the death of independent institutions and the new constitution and credible elections? Sometimes it seems to me it's a simple cop-out to take such "neutral" positions in times like these: You avoid making an emotional investment so you don't risk disappointment in the event of failure and you can just sit back, get on a moral pedestal and criticize everyone else. Sometimes it's also that some are embarrassed to openly support the side they are actually rooting for and so they hide behind a false neutrality.

And full of hidden embarrassment.    Let's now see what the smart side manages to achieve Okoa Kenya v. 2.0.

The bold refers to closeted jubilants who feel embarrassed to admit it. It's not difficult to tell who they are. I wasn't accusing you of being one of them. But you sure do do the cop-out "hopeless Kenyans" routine. Okoa v. 2 may fail, it may succeed, but how does the sit-on-the-fence-and-damn-all-Kenyans strategy beat it?

[MOON Ki]

The bold refers to closeted jubilants who feel embarrassed to admit it. It's not difficult to tell who they are. I wasn't accusing you of being one of them. But you sure do do the cop-out "hopeless Kenyans" routine. Okoa v. 2 may fail, it may succeed, but how does the sit-on-the-fence-and-damn-all-Kenyans strategy beat it?

Nothing beats it, and nothing could.   But still ... it will fail, for pretty much the same reasons that v. 1.0 failed.   

A man has to stick to his routine.  That's what makes it a routine.  The sticking-to-it.

[Dear Mami]

The bold refers to closeted jubilants who feel embarrassed to admit it. It's not difficult to tell who they are. I wasn't accusing you of being one of them. But you sure do do the cop-out "hopeless Kenyans" routine. Okoa v. 2 may fail, it may succeed, but how does the sit-on-the-fence-and-damn-all-Kenyans strategy beat it?

Nothing beats it, and nothing could.   But still ... it will fail, for pretty much the same reasons that v. 1.0 failed.   

A man has to stick to his routine.  That's what makes it a routine.  The sticking-to-it.

Well, beggars can't be choosers, so if this is the only arrow left in the quiver, I'm all for putting it in the bow and taking a shot.

[vooke]

I find some positions here very naive when we are back to fighting for fundamentals. It's just a more elaborate "economy before institutions" argument. What does it matter which fancy policies any side comes up with to show Kenyans when we are dealing with issues like preventing the slide to dictatorship, the death of independent institutions and the new constitution and credible elections? Sometimes it seems to me it's a simple cop-out to take such "neutral" positions in times like these: You avoid making an emotional investment so you don't risk disappointment in the event of failure and you can just sit back, get on a moral pedestal and criticize everyone else. Sometimes it's also that some are embarrassed to openly support the side they are actually rooting for and so they hide behind a false neutrality.

One need not to root for any particular faction to make meaningful contribution to any subject or even maintain intellectual honesty.  Your reasoning is precisely what I alluded to here that in Kenya everything you do is analyzed in a cheap binary NASWA/Jubilee fashion.In fact, presently, the most fashionable hobby in Kenia is guessing your favorite faction/candidate

[Empedocles]

I find some positions here very naive when we are back to fighting for fundamentals. It's just a more elaborate "economy before institutions" argument. What does it matter which fancy policies any side comes up with to show Kenyans when we are dealing with issues like preventing the slide to dictatorship, the death of independent institutions and the new constitution and credible elections? Sometimes it seems to me it's a simple cop-out to take such "neutral" positions in times like these: You avoid making an emotional investment so you don't risk disappointment in the event of failure and you can just sit back, get on a moral pedestal and criticize everyone else. Sometimes it's also that some are embarrassed to openly support the side they are actually rooting for and so they hide behind a false neutrality.

One need not to root for any particular faction to make meaningful contribution to any subject or even maintain intellectual honesty.  Your reasoning is precisely what I alluded to here that in Kenya everything you do is analyzed in a cheap binary NASWA/Jubilee fashion.In fact, presently, the most fashionable hobby in Kenia is guessing your favorite faction/candidate

That's one of our biggest problem.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Whether Rail & Co are the same or different from Uhuruto & Co does not matter so much as what either party does or would do with power.   So, rather than simply insisting that the one side must surely be better than the other on the basis that they are different sides,  a better argument might to be put forth (for whichever side one supports) their concrete ideas, policies, plans, ... that would deal with corruption, crappy government services, lack of food security, etc. and change the lives of Kenyans.   In the absence of such---with either side seemingly focused solely on power---"they are all the same" is not entirely unreasonable.   

[vooke]

Whether Rail & Co are the same or different from Uhuruto & Co does not matter so much as what either party does or would do with power.   So, rather than simply insisting that the one side must surely be better than the other on the basis that they are different sides,  a better argument might to be put forth (for whichever side one supports) their concrete ideas, policies, plans, ... that would deal with corruption, crappy government services, lack of food security, etc. and change the lives of Kenyans.   In the absence of such---with either side seemingly focused solely on power---"they are all the same" is not entirely unreasonable.   

I agree with this assessment.
One can take the purely academic approach of the fairest policies, or just get practical and focus on who has realistic chances of sailing through.

But Moonki seems to suggest that nobody should get a free pass and they deserve to be critiqued. Is it not fatalism settling for whatever alternative we have because it stands the most realistic chance of dislodging whatever we have?

[Dear Mami]

I find some positions here very naive when we are back to fighting for fundamentals. It's just a more elaborate "economy before institutions" argument. What does it matter which fancy policies any side comes up with to show Kenyans when we are dealing with issues like preventing the slide to dictatorship, the death of independent institutions and the new constitution and credible elections? Sometimes it seems to me it's a simple cop-out to take such "neutral" positions in times like these: You avoid making an emotional investment so you don't risk disappointment in the event of failure and you can just sit back, get on a moral pedestal and criticize everyone else. Sometimes it's also that some are embarrassed to openly support the side they are actually rooting for and so they hide behind a false neutrality.

One need not to root for any particular faction to make meaningful contribution to any subject or even maintain intellectual honesty.  Your reasoning is precisely what I alluded to here that in Kenya everything you do is analyzed in a cheap binary NASWA/Jubilee fashion.In fact, presently, the most fashionable hobby in Kenia is guessing your favorite faction/candidate

No one created a rule for who gets to contribute and none said anything about intellectual dishonesty. Way to beat down a strawman and make a cheap shot. Presently, the most fashionable hobby I see is to keep mum on blatant Jubilee excesses and then pounce on anything one can use to beat down the opposition even if one has to travel twenty years back in time to get anything arguable and then to throw in "neutral" disclaimers all over the place to avoid the impossible task of defending one's pro-Jubilee stance. Such hard work must be left to honest supporters like Pundit.

[MOON Ki]

I tend to see Raila as something to stop the bleeding. The fact that one may not know what to do afterwards is not relevant to the one that bleeding needs to stop for that to even matter.

That is an interesting way to look at it.  "We'll do the thinking later.".  The 20th-century history of Africa will produce numerous examples in which people  overthrew a government  that deserved to be overthrown but ended up with an even bigger mess because they did not start clear ideas of what to do next.  Sort of like stopping the bleeding but breaking the neck in the process.   

And we know Raila will stop the bleeding how?   Just because he gets in?   His past performance as prime minister? What he has done since then?

Anyways ...

My view: The bleeding will stop when Kenyans have had enough of it and wish to have something done about it.   That won't happen any time soon; right now, a sizable part of of the population will  even dispute any claim that the country is bleeding.

[Kichwa]

Fair enough, Moonki, for some of us, that time is now.  Some people in Kenya have had enough and cannot afford to wait for those who are still comfortable to feel their pain. The people who are causing the suffering are not stupid and will use tribalism to make sure that Kenyans will not feel as if they have had enough all at the same time. That is the whole idea behind kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance, stealing of votes and the tyranny of numbers.  Even Bashar Al-Asaad still has a segment of Syrians who support him and believe in him.

I tend to see Raila as something to stop the bleeding. The fact that one may not know what to do afterwards is not relevant to the one that bleeding needs to stop for that to even matter.

That is an interesting way to look at it.  "We'll do the thinking later.".  The 20th-century history of Africa will produce numerous examples in which people  overthrew a government  that deserved to be overthrown but ended up with an even bigger mess because they did not start clear ideas of what to do next.  Sort of like stopping the bleeding but breaking the neck in the process.   

And we know Raila will stop the bleeding how?   Just because he gets in?   His past performance as prime minister? What he has done since then?

Anyways ...

My view: The bleeding will stop when Kenyans have had enough of it and wish to have something done about it.   That won't happen any time soon; right now, a sizable part of of the population will  even dispute any claim that the country is bleeding.M

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I tend to see Raila as something to stop the bleeding. The fact that one may not know what to do afterwards is not relevant to the one that bleeding needs to stop for that to even matter.

That is an interesting way to look at it.  "We'll do the thinking later.".  The 20th-century history of Africa will produce numerous examples in which people  overthrew a government  that deserved to be overthrown but ended up with an even bigger mess because they did not start clear ideas of what to do next.  Sort of like stopping the bleeding but breaking the neck in the process.   

And we know Raila will stop the bleeding how?   Just because he gets in?   His past performance as prime minister? What he has done since then?

Anyways ...

My view: The bleeding will stop when Kenyans have had enough of it and wish to have something done about it.   That won't happen any time soon; right now, a sizable part of of the population will  even dispute any claim that the country is bleeding.

We don't know if Raila will stop the bleeding or not.  We just know it needs to stop.  At a minimum it needs to be disrupted.  I haven't seen anything his grouping has suggested in terms of ideas that would make me prefer the status quo. 

Granted, ideas have generally taken a back seat.  For reasons I feel are understandable.  It's not going to make sense selling ideas, better or worse, when the system that decides which ideas get to be tried out is dysfunctional or actually rigged anyway.  The focus naturally shifts to how to dislodge the rigging system.

How do you get to have good or even terrible ideas tried out when the system is rigged to prevent such an outcome?  The last one, a one man circus, was still fraught with comical declarations and outright contradictions.  For that reason, I am no longer subscribing to the notion that Kenyans have what they deserve.  It's premature, because they can't make the choice.

[Dear Mami]

We don't know if Raila will stop the bleeding or not.  We just know it needs to stop.  At a minimum it needs to be disrupted.  I haven't seen anything his grouping has suggested in terms of ideas that would make me prefer the status quo. 

Granted, ideas have generally taken a back seat.  For reasons I feel are understandable.  It's not going to make sense selling ideas, better or worse, when the system that decides which ideas get to be tried out is dysfunctional or actually rigged anyway.  The focus naturally shifts to how to dislodge the rigging system.

How do you get to have good or even terrible ideas tried out when the system is rigged to prevent such an outcome?  The last one, a one man circus, was still fraught with comical declarations and outright contradictions.  For that reason, I am no longer subscribing to the notion that Kenyans have what they deserve.  It's premature, because they can't make the choice.

Our friend is protecting his heart. Loving the girl called Kenya and dreaming beautiful dreams with/about her is not easy for any sane negro. At some point you have to tell yourself she aint all that, not worth all that hustle, so that you can move on in peace.

[MOON Ki]

Granted, ideas have generally taken a back seat.  For reasons I feel are understandable.  It's not going to make sense selling ideas, better or worse, when the system that decides which ideas get to be tried out is dysfunctional or actually rigged anyway.  The focus naturally shifts to how to dislodge the rigging system.

Raila has to sell some ideas, even to his own supporters.   Unless he can convince people that Okoa Kenya v. 2.0 will somehow lead to worthwhile changes for the people, I expect the thing to fizzle out within a few months.   That's not long to go, so we'll see.

How do you get to have good or even terrible ideas tried out when the system is rigged to prevent such an outcome? 

We don't necessarily expect them to get tried out, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to ask what the ideas are in the first place.

By the way, I notice that the "Opposition" counties have been as badly run as the others; that doesn't inspire much confidence in a move to the national level or for the proposed new "republic".  I also see that the new National Assembly that is very likely to be a disaster generally reflects the will of the people ... at least I haven't heard any massive-rigging claims at that level.

[MOON Ki]

Our friend is protecting his heart. Loving the girl called Kenya and dreaming beautiful dreams with/about her is not easy for any sane negro. At some point you have to tell yourself she aint all that, not worth all that hustle, so that you can move on in peace.

Your friend does never loves or dreams beautiful dreams with/about whores.   Reformed ones ... perhaps.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Granted, ideas have generally taken a back seat.  For reasons I feel are understandable.  It's not going to make sense selling ideas, better or worse, when the system that decides which ideas get to be tried out is dysfunctional or actually rigged anyway.  The focus naturally shifts to how to dislodge the rigging system.

Raila has to sell some ideas, even to his own supporters.   Unless he can convince people that Okoa Kenya v. 2.0 will somehow lead to worthwhile changes for the people, I expect the thing to fizzle out within a few months.   That's not long to go, so we'll see.

I think he has.  They may not be great, but he has the Luhyas, Luos, Akamba, Gusii, Mijikenda sold on to what he has presented to them, just as his core.  He can't sell his ideas to GEMA or Kalenjins no matter how great.

His ideas could certainly fail Okoa Kenya style - maybe worse.  But the problem as I see it, even if he had better ideas, they will fail for the reason that there is no avenue for them to be given a fair look at.  The system will not allow wanjiku to choose her destiny, good or bad.  For that reason, I cannot blame wanjiku for what she is going through.

How do you get to have good or even terrible ideas tried out when the system is rigged to prevent such an outcome? 

We don't necessarily expect them to get tried out, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to ask what the ideas are in the first place. 

By the way, I notice that the "Opposition" counties have been as badly run as the others; that doesn't inspire much confidence in a move to the national level or for the proposed new "republic".  I also see that the new National Assembly that is very likely to be a disaster generally reflects the will of the people ... at least I haven't heard any massive-rigging claims at that level.

I see counties as just a reflection of what happens at the national stage.  When they see that you can eat with impunity at the top, copycats are going crop up all over.  The institutions that are supposed to fix them are after all answering to the guy at State House de facto.

[MOON Ki]

I think he has.  They may not be great, but he has the Luhyas, Luos, Akamba, Gusii, Mijikenda sold on to what he has presented to them, just as his core.  He can't sell his ideas to GEMA or Kalenjins no matter how great.

Perhaps.    As things stand, I don't see that what he's sold so far is enough to sustain his revolution.  Let's wait and see.

The system will not allow wanjiku to choose her destiny, good or bad.  For that reason, I cannot blame wanjiku for what she is going through.

Wanjiku has given us the new legislature.   Let's see how it works out.

I see counties as just a reflection of what happens at the national stage.  When they see that you can eat with impunity at the top, copycats are going crop up all over.  The institutions that are supposed to fix them are after all answering to the guy at State House de facto.

I agree that it is a reflection of what happens on the national stage.  I am, however, curious about two things: (a)  the copycats denouncing what they are copying, (b) the idea that these copycats will suddenly change their ways  when they get to the national level and have even more eating opportunities.    And I find funny the notion that they are the way they are because the people who are supposed to stop them ... People can make other choices, and they really ought to when they are claiming some sort of moral superiority.   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I think he has.  They may not be great, but he has the Luhyas, Luos, Akamba, Gusii, Mijikenda sold on to what he has presented to them, just as his core.  He can't sell his ideas to GEMA or Kalenjins no matter how great.

Perhaps.    As things stand, I don't see that what he's sold so far is enough to sustain his revolution.  Let's wait and see.

The system will not allow wanjiku to choose her destiny, good or bad.  For that reason, I cannot blame wanjiku for what she is going through.

Wanjiku has given us the new legislature.   Let's see how it works out.

The legislature is interesting.  One can argue that it's also prone to abuse from the patronage system controlled from State House.  That is also a reason why opposition MPs tend to be unreliable.  These guys just flock to where they see opportunities and favors.  The truth is the Presidency still enjoys more power than the constitution actually prescribes. 

For that reason, Wanjiku can pick someone who represents her interests only to loose them to the bright lights of "good living".  Granted, most of the characters reelected have little to show that they deserved to be reelected.  Wanjiku can be blamed for this.  But also, who gets elected, depends a lot on who they support for President and how much rapport they enjoy with this person.

It seems to me that a lot ultimately depends on the Presidency, including how the people you elect in the legislature are going to behave.

I see counties as just a reflection of what happens at the national stage.  When they see that you can eat with impunity at the top, copycats are going crop up all over.  The institutions that are supposed to fix them are after all answering to the guy at State House de facto.

I agree that it is a reflection of what happens on the national stage.  I am, however, curious about two things: (a)  the copycats denouncing what they are copying, (b) the idea that these copycats will suddenly change their ways  when they get to the national level and have even more eating opportunities.    And I find funny the notion that they are the way they are because the people who are supposed to stop them ... People can make other choices, and they really ought to when they are claiming some sort of moral superiority.   

There is indeed no reason to believe that they will change their ways.  The real problem in Kenya is that crime at those levels is rewarding.  There is virtually no penalty associated with being named, arrested, quizzed and even charged with crimes by public office holders.  Again, I believe the Presidency can make some difference in this arena.  Mnataka nifanyeje is actually a very clear signal.

[MOON Ki]

The legislature is interesting.  One can argue that it's also prone to abuse from the patronage system controlled from State House.  That is also a reason why opposition MPs tend to be unreliable.  These guys just flock to where they see opportunities and favors. The truth is the Presidency still enjoys more power than the constitution actually prescribes.

Yep.    More of Wanjiku's chosen representatives.

 

For that reason, Wanjiku can pick someone who represents her interests only to loose them to the bright lights of "good living".  Granted, most of the characters reelected have little to show that they deserved to be reelected.  Wanjiku can be blamed for this.  But also, who gets elected, depends a lot on who they support for President and how much rapport they enjoy with this person.

It seems to me that a lot ultimately depends on the Presidency, including how the people you elect in the legislature are going to behave.

Without any claims of massive rigging at that level too, ultimately Wanjiku has the vote and exercises it freely at that level.    To my mind, there's no getting around that. 

If Wanjiku has carefully considered the integrity and other aspects of character, past performance in relevant areas, prospects for future performance, etc. of the candidates---and I'm not sure that that really happens---but still ends up with people who get seduced by the "good life", then there is a more serious and fundamental problem: that of an entirely crappy base population.  I find that hard to believe, and I would also wonder whether such a population is capable of producing the "Hero President" that will save the country. 

There is indeed no reason to believe that they will change their ways.  The real problem in Kenya is that crime at those levels is rewarding.  There is virtually no penalty associated with being named, arrested, quizzed and even charged with crimes by public office holders.  Again, I believe the Presidency can make some difference in this arena.  Mnataka nifanyeje is actually a very clear signal.

I agree that the Presidency can, and should, send very different signals from what we have right now.   But I also believe that a great deal more can be done independently of that.    A starting point would be for Wanjiku to make better choices when voting for the national assembly and county governments.    I don't see great prospects for change if people just sit back and wait for the right presidency; in my view, real change in Kenya will have to start at lower levels.   Consider the motley crew that will be the presidential candidates for 2022 is not the result of an accident.

Time will tell.

[MOON Ki]

Fair enough, Moonki, for some of us, that time is now.  Some people in Kenya have had enough and cannot afford to wait for those who are still comfortable to feel their pain. The people who are causing the suffering are not stupid and will use tribalism to make sure that Kenyans will not feel as if they have had enough all at the same time. That is the whole idea behind kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance, stealing of votes and the tyranny of numbers.  Even Bashar Al-Asaad still has a segment of Syrians who support him and believe in him.

I don't see it as a matter of having to wait; what I think is that even those who are already fed up and want change right now might not achieve much until a sufficient number feel the pain.   Otherwise I am generally supportive of some ideas and plans that I have heard mentioned---those that would hasten the awakening of the citizenry---and there is no doubt that serious change is urgently needed.   Still, some of the ideas, such as the alternative or new republic, strike me as very funny indeed.  One hopes that energy and attention will be  directed into more fruitful activities.    But, perhaps, some good could come out of that too: the "Opposition" might in the next five years show that they can run their parts of the country (aforementioned alternative/new "republic") better than the rest of the country is run.

As for the "Kikuyu/Kalenjin Alliance", one thing to keep in mind is that from their point of view what they have done so far has worked out rather nicely, and they will no doubt use the same playbook in 2022.   They also have a "proactive" and "supportive" legislature that has hit the ground running, so to speak, and I would be astonished if they did not stay on that path.  I also expect the executive to continue in the same style we have seen so far.  So  I'd start thinking about and preparing for 2022 right now.

[vooke]

I find some positions here very naive when we are back to fighting for fundamentals. It's just a more elaborate "economy before institutions" argument. What does it matter which fancy policies any side comes up with to show Kenyans when we are dealing with issues like preventing the slide to dictatorship, the death of independent institutions and the new constitution and credible elections? Sometimes it seems to me it's a simple cop-out to take such "neutral" positions in times like these: You avoid making an emotional investment so you don't risk disappointment in the event of failure and you can just sit back, get on a moral pedestal and criticize everyone else. Sometimes it's also that some are embarrassed to openly support the side they are actually rooting for and so they hide behind a false neutrality.

One need not to root for any particular faction to make meaningful contribution to any subject or even maintain intellectual honesty.  Your reasoning is precisely what I alluded to here that in Kenya everything you do is analyzed in a cheap binary NASWA/Jubilee fashion.In fact, presently, the most fashionable hobby in Kenia is guessing your favorite faction/candidate

No one created a rule for who gets to contribute and none said anything about intellectual dishonesty. Way to beat down a strawman and make a cheap shot. Presently, the most fashionable hobby I see is to keep mum on blatant Jubilee excesses and then pounce on anything one can use to beat down the opposition even if one has to travel twenty years back in time to get anything arguable and then to throw in "neutral" disclaimers all over the place to avoid the impossible task of defending one's pro-Jubilee stance. Such hard work must be left to honest supporters like Pundit.

Another hobby I see here is whining why nobody sees your POV and labeling them sympathizers of whatever you are berating