Laughing at Pundit's MOAS

[RV Pundit]

If you prefer Ambithologoy --which got RV totally wrong in my view - but everything else seem to agree with Synovate.

[patel]

Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe

Go back to choo.com. I know it pains you greatly that Raila is not making to PORK - but relax - UhuRuto are just about started. You'll need lot more shock absorbers.

The sad part the fucker Bagdad Bob  believes in that tribalism crap. I understand the man has to eat and feed his bastard daughter but at what cost? The kind of pure tribal hatred that's propagated by the so called pundit is troubling........

[RV Pundit]

Bla bla de bla....bleating goat.

Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe

[patel]

Wow my day is ruined because some tribalist yahoo perched somewhere in Mavoko slums with 5 acres in Mau forest called me a bleating goat.....you got jokes....you are a fucking tribalist begging to be euthanized.

Bla bla de bla....bleating goat.

Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe

[Omollo]

I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.

[RV Pundit]

Make absolutely senses. You do your own and lets us meet at night of 8th and review. Of course you need to accept the results as they come - don't claim rigging and all sort of conspiracy unless you have incontrovertible evidence that can stand some serious tests.

I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.

[Omollo]

If

1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)

I will accept any result.

I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).

I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.

Make absolutely senses. You do your own and lets us meet at night of 8th and review. Of course you need to accept the results as they come - don't claim rigging and all sort of conspiracy unless you have incontrovertible evidence that can stand some serious tests.

I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.

[RV Pundit]

2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.

Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did  2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.

The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.

We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.

If

1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)

I will accept any result.

I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).

I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.

+

[GeeMail]

Pundit you are on record rigging happens though you tend to mention only Homa Bay and Mandera. Is rigging adequately factored in your MOASS?

[RV Pundit]

Yeap suspiciously high turn out in homabay n mandera are propagated coz I have no cold evidence that this happened.I have only increased turn out in coast to match national average because mrc is not a factor having died off.

[Kichwa]

Of course manual voting can be free and fair.  That is not the claim. The claim is that manual voting is easy to rig. 2002, 2005 and 2010 were fair because nobody tried to rig them and Raila's side won.  2007 and 2013 were rigged and "Raila lost".  This does not mean Raila cannot lose a free and fair elections, but it means, manual elections are easy to rig.

2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.

Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did  2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.

The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.

We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.

If

1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)

I will accept any result.

I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).

I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.

+

[vooke]

Of course manual voting can be free and fair.  That is not the claim. The claim is that manual voting is easy to rig. 2002, 2005 and 2010 were fair because nobody tried to rig them and Raila's side won.  2007 and 2013 were rigged and "Raila lost".  This does not mean Raila cannot lose a free and fair elections, but it means, manual elections are easy to rig.

2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.

Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did  2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.

The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.

We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.

If

1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)

I will accept any result.

I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).

I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.

+

Correct. Manual is easier to rig. But that's not the point; point is manual can be free and fair. In other words, manual =/= rigging contrary to NASWA brigade

[Omollo]

What is the debate here really?

If you leave a leopard  together with a goat, the chances of finding the goat eaten increase by whatever percentage Pundit can drop above 90%

However if you put a reinforced glass between them and probably ensure the leopard is well fed, the chances of finding your goat dead decrease to 0.

BTW electronic systems can be hacked and rigged or sabotaged as we saw in 2007 and 2013. As KM says, if there are persons intent on rigging they would do it. It is just that the manual system becomes easier to rig.

In the current voting MANUAL = RIGGING why?

Because the register is already contaminated with double registrations (regardless of tribe - to avoid predictable equivalence). Asked about why the suspected entries were not removed the IEBC stated that it did not wish to disenfranchise genuine voters and that voting will be done by voters being identified biometrically.

That for the record only reduces the possible cheating because underage persons or foreigners can vote if the ID is no longer required or if it is faked.

However where EVIDs are not employed, and already we have been told not to worry about ID cards, it needs no monkey brain to see that we shall have have vote stuffing.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

[Nefertiti]

Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.

[Nefertiti]

Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.

The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.

The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.

You are right.  Still some sort of proportional thing is going to be demanded sooner or later.  Especially if Jubilee wins.

[Nefertiti]

Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.

There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:

1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.

This will force candidates to care about all counties.

I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.

The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.

You are right.  Still some sort of proportional thing is going to be demanded sooner or later.  Especially if Jubilee wins.

This 'equity' was demanded and granted first as parliamentary system and 30% devolution -- which was watered down to pure presidency (with 50%+1 & 25% of 24 counties) and 15% devolution. In discussions here earlier we floated 40% devolution (US, Germany) which Jubilee already claims to do at 34%. You can't have full federalism in tiny Kenya because you end up with 47 systems and struggle with fresh issues like US common core (education) or eminent domain (property) or even religious conflict. Parliamentary democracy looks like a safer bet in a heterogeneous tiny country - SA & UK for instance.

[RV Pundit]

Keep the system as is longer before changing it.