Who knows NASA game plan when the lose?

[RV Pundit]

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It obvious going by MOAS that NASA win is improbable if not impossible.

Talking to NASA supporters and leaders all you here is - they are not going to court this time round!

I guess that leaves us with few options.

1) Start tribal clashes in NASA zones - their angry supporters are probably imagining Raila will send them nuclear weapons attached to joystick or their TV remote where they get to kill Jubilee tribes like some video game. I don't think they have the stomach for bloodshed - that is Kalenjin & Mungiki speciality.

2) Call for demos & civil disobedience - OKOA/IEBC type - most likely but totally ineffective - will fizzle out after a week of tear gas.

3) Announce Raila the winner in TZ after parrallel tally and hope to engineer international crisis using mad Magufli. I think there is a limit to friendship and Raila is about to discover that. Jubilee owns the international community. This might have worked in 2013 but now Uhuru is a western darling who just came from G20.

4) Somehow engineer a civil war in security forces?

Bottom line. If you don't have the stomach for bloodshed - then just go to Supreme Court and hope for the best. Power concede nothing. Jubilee coalition enjoy the tyranny of numbers, violence and incumbency.

[Kichwa]

RV Pundit: Has it occurred to you that the reason why we may not go to court is because we will win this election outright or we will concede defeat.  I think you are panicking too soon.

It obvious going by MOAS that NASA win is improbable if not impossible.

Talking to NASA supporters and leaders all you here is - they are not going to court this time round!

I guess that leaves us with few options.

1) Start tribal clashes in NASA zones - their angry supporters are probably imagining Raila will send them nuclear weapons attached to joystick or their TV remote where they get to kill Jubilee tribes like some video game. I don't think they have the stomach for bloodshed - that is Kalenjin & Mungiki speciality.

2) Call for demos & civil disobedience - OKOA/IEBC type - most likely but totally ineffective - will fizzle out after a week of tear gas.

3) Announce Raila the winner in TZ after parrallel tally and hope to engineer international crisis using mad Magufli. I think there is a limit to friendship and Raila is about to discover that. Jubilee owns the international community. This might have worked in 2013 but now Uhuru is a western darling who just came from G20.

4) Somehow engineer a civil war in security forces?

Bottom line. If you don't have the stomach for bloodshed - then just go to Supreme Court and hope for the best. Power concede nothing. Jubilee coalition enjoy the tyranny of numbers, violence and incumbency.

[RV Pundit]

There are legitimate questions. Obviously I would advice GEMA+Kalenjin to stay away from NASA zones for at least the first two weeks. I don't see you winning. I don't see you preparing to lose. I think we shall see demos & civil disobedience but you can never rule attempt for Raila to announce & swear himself PORK in some hideout.

RV Pundit: Has it occurred to you that the reason why we may not go to court is because we will win this election outright or we will concede defeat.  I think you are panicking too soon.

[Kichwa]

Its obvious that you are living in a dark jubilee cave and what you see is very limited.  You will be surprised how many options NASA has that does not include losing or a civil war.

There are legitimate questions. Obviously I would advice GEMA+Kalenjin to stay away from NASA zones for at least the first two weeks. I don't see you winning. I don't see you preparing to lose. I think we shall see demos & civil disobedience but you can never rule attempt for Raila to announce & swear himself PORK in some hideout.

RV Pundit: Has it occurred to you that the reason why we may not go to court is because we will win this election outright or we will concede defeat.  I think you are panicking too soon.

[RV Pundit]

Enlighten me on those options

Its obvious that you are living in a dark jubilee cave and what you see is very limited.  You will be surprised how many options NASA has that does not include losing or a civil war.

[Kichwa]

I gave you some but you rejected them:  Here they are again. 1) NASA wins outright and Jubilee accepts the lose graciously  2) NASA loses and accepts the lose graciously 3) Jubilee loses and goes to court and lose in court 4) NASA or Jubilee loses goes to court and new presidential elections are ordered.

Enlighten me on those options

Its obvious that you are living in a dark jubilee cave and what you see is very limited.  You will be surprised how many options NASA has that does not include losing or a civil war.

[Omollo]

What MOAS are you talking about?

The last one you posted clearly showed a NASA victory (when the huge errors were corrected). So where are you getting this propaganda to feed us?

It obvious going by MOAS that NASA win is improbable if not impossible.

Talking to NASA supporters and leaders all you here is - they are not going to court this time round!

I guess that leaves us with few options.

1) Start tribal clashes in NASA zones - their angry supporters are probably imagining Raila will send them nuclear weapons attached to joystick or their TV remote where they get to kill Jubilee tribes like some video game. I don't think they have the stomach for bloodshed - that is Kalenjin & Mungiki speciality.

2) Call for demos & civil disobedience - OKOA/IEBC type - most likely but totally ineffective - will fizzle out after a week of tear gas.

3) Announce Raila the winner in TZ after parrallel tally and hope to engineer international crisis using mad Magufli. I think there is a limit to friendship and Raila is about to discover that. Jubilee owns the international community. This might have worked in 2013 but now Uhuru is a western darling who just came from G20.

4) Somehow engineer a civil war in security forces?

Bottom line. If you don't have the stomach for bloodshed - then just go to Supreme Court and hope for the best. Power concede nothing. Jubilee coalition enjoy the tyranny of numbers, violence and incumbency.

[RV Pundit]

Refer to Rough MOAS thread - I raised NASA stronghold & battleground turn out to 95% and Uhuru still wins - we are about few weeks from FINAL MOAS - I think everything is nearly settled now - and by July 8th - we should have FINAL MOAS.

What MOAS are you talking about?

The last one you posted clearly showed a NASA victory (when the huge errors were corrected). So where are you getting this propaganda to feed us?

[Omollo]

Let me join Kichwa in advising you to curb your exuberance. Take note of one thing: Who do you think will accept to be cheated and subjugated for the number of years Uhuru and Ruto are planning?

By what? A tribal alliance created to oppress others?

There is one change I would make to KM's statement: we are prepared for anything and we are not naive.

There are legitimate questions. Obviously I would advice GEMA+Kalenjin to stay away from NASA zones for at least the first two weeks. I don't see you winning. I don't see you preparing to lose. I think we shall see demos & civil disobedience but you can never rule attempt for Raila to announce & swear himself PORK in some hideout.

[RV Pundit]

Work on the premise that NASA will (as MOAS definitely says - and MOAS has never been wrong) LOSE. Tell me those scenarios.

I gave you some but you rejected them:  Here they are again. 1) NASA wins outright and Jubilee accepts the lose graciously  2) NASA loses and accepts the lose graciously 3) Jubilee loses and goes to court and lose in court 4) NASA or Jubilee loses goes to court and new presidential elections are ordered.

[RV Pundit]

Sound like you have no ACES and Jokers. Your game is over. You lose today - what do you do?

Let me join Kichwa in advising you to curb your exuberance. Take note of one thing: Who do you think will accept to be cheated and subjugated for the number of years Uhuru and Ruto are planning?

By what? A tribal alliance created to oppress others?

There is one change I would make to KM's statement: we are prepared for anything and we are not naive.

[Omollo]

You can use your MOAS in the nearest toilet. It is worse than a forgery.

The figures are plucked from God knows what hole. There is no science involved - perhaps witchcraft. How do you decide what % of the vote to give Jubilee?

In Jubilee areas you award based on the votes Uhuru secured - even though you add a few of your well-known percentages; then you turn to NASA areas and arbitrarily award the share of the vote according to your whims. Look at Taita Taveta where Uhuru got 13%. In your MOAS you give him 34% crucially you subtract over 20% from Raila.

The same pattern is followed with you polishing Jubilee votes and trimming NASA votes. Makueni where Raila scored 91% you knock off one percentage point - nothing to complain about except you give Uhuru 10%. That is a 100% multiplication of his support! He got 5%

Kilifi where Raila got 84% you are kind enough to give him 67%. In fact ALL NASA areas which Jubilee knows it must winj or go home have seen you give them 60 plus.

Pundit, these are the kind of documents I would bend down to my lowest drawer, pick out a red felt pen and decorate before calling the officer concerned to go through it with him and show why it would be a shame to allow it to go forward.

You have produced crap.

[Omollo]

I told you the Next President is Raila Odinga. Take it to KCB (won't bet on Equity after 8/8)

Sound like you have no ACES and Jokers. Your game is over. You lose today - what do you do?

Let me join Kichwa in advising you to curb your exuberance. Take note of one thing: Who do you think will accept to be cheated and subjugated for the number of years Uhuru and Ruto are planning?

By what? A tribal alliance created to oppress others?

There is one change I would make to KM's statement: we are prepared for anything and we are not naive.

[GeeMail]

It obvious going by MOAS that NASA win is improbable if not impossible.

Talking to NASA supporters and leaders all you here is - they are not going to court this time round!

I guess that leaves us with few options.

1) Start tribal clashes in NASA zones - their angry supporters are probably imagining Raila will send them nuclear weapons attached to joystick or their TV remote where they get to kill Jubilee tribes like some video game. I don't think they have the stomach for bloodshed - that is Kalenjin & Mungiki speciality.

2) Call for demos & civil disobedience - OKOA/IEBC type - most likely but totally ineffective - will fizzle out after a week of tear gas.

3) Announce Raila the winner in TZ after parrallel tally and hope to engineer international crisis using mad Magufli. I think there is a limit to friendship and Raila is about to discover that. Jubilee owns the international community. This might have worked in 2013 but now Uhuru is a western darling who just came from G20.

4) Somehow engineer a civil war in security forces?

Bottom line. If you don't have the stomach for bloodshed - then just go to Supreme Court and hope for the best. Power concede nothing. Jubilee coalition enjoy the tyranny of numbers, violence and incumbency.

No Pundit. You tell us what you plan when Jubilee looses.  You already mentioned Mungiki, worriers and teargas throwers. Have this axis of evil signed an unholy trinity agreement or they will begin fighting amongst themselves?

[patel]

Its clear Baghdad Bob is unhinged. The kitchen sink strategy has failed, what next? war drums
sampling opinions on this board its clear the ratio is 10:1 in favor of NASA.....where are these jubilee supporters? on excel sheet

[RV Pundit]

MOAS is not exact replica of 2013. If that was the case we would simply say Uhuru 51%; Raila+MaDVD 48%; Others 2%; Uhuru still win. But what I try to do is to factor changes that have happened since 2013...and most of that is mainly Uhuru gain grounds on Raila in his strongholds. This is not exact science but I try to guestimate what effect for example the defection of Senator Mwanza, Jay & others will have on Taita - I look at opinion polls - I look at how competitive nomination were - etc. I have added Raila vote in Bomet..because Isaac will him 10%...and reduce it in Kericho..because Franklin/Margerer 4,000 votes are gone. The same for Kilifi, Kwale and name it. That is what MOAS does...

Finally I have my numbers pin up there - the assumption out there - and we can come back on 9th see how crap it is. I can assure you it never crap.

You can use your MOAS in the nearest toilet. It is worse than a forgery.

The figures are plucked from God knows what hole. There is no science involved - perhaps witchcraft. How do you decide what % of the vote to give Jubilee?

In Jubilee areas you award based on the votes Uhuru secured - even though you add a few of your well-known percentages; then you turn to NASA areas and arbitrarily award the share of the vote according to your whims. Look at Taita Taveta where Uhuru got 13%. In your MOAS you give him 34% crucially you subtract over 20% from Raila.

The same pattern is followed with you polishing Jubilee votes and trimming NASA votes. Makueni where Raila scored 91% you knock off one percentage point - nothing to complain about except you give Uhuru 10%. That is a 100% multiplication of his support! He got 5%

Kilifi where Raila got 84% you are kind enough to give him 67%. In fact ALL NASA areas which Jubilee knows it must winj or go home have seen you give them 60 plus.

Pundit, these are the kind of documents I would bend down to my lowest drawer, pick out a red felt pen and decorate before calling the officer concerned to go through it with him and show why it would be a shame to allow it to go forward.

You have produced crap.

[Omollo]

Nope!

The number of registered voters has definitely changed. So there is no way in science you can arrive at the same figures as 2013. That sadly is why you opted to cook because whichever way you looked at it you found there was no hope for Jubilee.

Incumbents lose support, they don't gain. Yet in your MOAS you defy that "rule" and keep giving Uhuru advantages. Like I said before, you have an outcome you want and then fix everything to reach it. When you produced the last one you withdrew it in a hurry claiming it was "wrong". The only thing wrong with it is that you "awarded" the entire nairobi to Uhuru etc and had you corrected that you would have had NASA winning. So what was wrong with it was the outcome. It did not suit your wishes.

Now how I do it: I bite the bullet and give my enemies what is rightfully theirs. I know Murang'a will vote for Raila the day after Jesus returns. So I do not tinkle with that.

Try to look at the % increases of support vis-a-vis the 2013 performance and see how laughable your MOAS is. To imagine Mung'aro would win Kilifi for Jubilee and give Uhuru 40% of the vote is a cruel joke. He got 10% so you are saying he has increased his support by 300%.

Kericho vote for Raila cannot change. It can increase but not decrease. That is because those who vote for him are largely emigre workers - Luos, Kisii, Luhya etc. Unless you kick them out - as was the case in 1979, 1983, 1988, 1992, 1997 - they will be there to provide that vote.

There are no serious defections to Jubilee during the election period proper while on the other hand NASA continues to receive defectors from Jubilee and high ranking ones (even if you denigrate most). The defections to Jubilee by governors and others was based on blackmail. The NIS embarked on that mission of threats and coercion netting some but alienating others. It is NOT an indicator of popularity. For example threatening Obure with prison and getting him to defect did not earn Jubilee votes in Kisii. Appointing everybody in Nyachae's household to public jobs (incidentally from one of his "houses" and not the others who are resentful) offered ODM a chance it never had. Now Kisii and Nyamira are in ODM. No other place is so orange as Kisii and Nyamira outside Coast and Nyanza. Yet you give Uhuru 40%.

I conclude by telling you that while you believe Jubilee is winning Uhuru and Ruto have sensed defeat and are seriously planning to steal the vote or engineer a military coup.

MOAS is not exact replica of 2013. If that was the case we would simply say Uhuru 51%; Raila+MaDVD 48%; Others 2%; Uhuru still win. But what I try to do is to factor changes that have happened since 2013...and most of that is mainly Uhuru gain grounds on Raila in his strongholds. This is not exact science but I try to guestimate what effect for example the defection of Senator Mwanza, Jay & others will have on Taita - I look at opinion polls - I look at how competitive nomination were - etc. I have added Raila vote in Bomet..because Isaac will him 10%...and reduce it in Kericho..because Franklin/Margerer 4,000 votes are gone. The same for Kilifi, Kwale and name it. That is what MOAS does...

Finally I have my numbers pin up there - the assumption out there - and we can come back on 9th see how crap it is. I can assure you it never crap.

[RV Pundit]

You made some valid arguments but you spice it with lies. I am glad you agree that this is not 2013. New registration figures is taken care of - KPMG came unstuck and we basically have the same register - pending a few changes here and there. As regard to political wind of the battle ground or swing grounds...I have my own things that I watch..you have you own political indicators.. I watch for regional/clan/sub-ethnic players...I watch opinion polls...I watch social media & main media..I watch nomination battle..I watch crowds...and I make my prediction.

For example Kilifi - now - according to me Jubilee will increase it's tally to 30% with NASA around 70%- they've lost support obviously - I am thinking 10-15% support - which is generous to you side - because opinion polls I have seen are even more ruthless to NASA.

Kilifi   Mijikenda 86.5%,Kamba,Swahili,others 5%   510484   75   31   67   2   118688   256518   3829   7   0   7   0   NASA   NASA   NASA.

As regard other places..I now got the tribal make-up of counties...and will be making another round of changes...

Finally we have had competitive tribal elections & referendum since 92 - that is a lot of data on our tribal voting patterns - that I use to cross-reference.

MOAS is not exact science - but I try to be methodologically and get it right.  That is all my intention. To get it right.

Final MOAS is coming soon....and we can wait & met on 9th - when you'll be crying rigging.

Nope!

The number of registered voters has definitely changed. So there is no way in science you can arrive at the same figures as 2013. That sadly is why you opted to cook because whichever way you looked at it you found there was no hope for Jubilee.

Incumbents lose support, they don't gain. Yet in your MOAS you defy that "rule" and keep giving Uhuru advantages. Like I said before, you have an outcome you want and then fix everything to reach it. When you produced the last one you withdrew it in a hurry claiming it was "wrong". The only thing wrong with it is that you "awarded" the entire nairobi to Uhuru etc and had you corrected that you would have had NASA winning. So what was wrong with it was the outcome. It did not suit your wishes.

Now how I do it: I bite the bullet and give my enemies what is rightfully theirs. I know Murang'a will vote for Raila the day after Jesus returns. So I do not tinkle with that.

Try to look at the % increases of support vis-a-vis the 2013 performance and see how laughable your MOAS is. To imagine Mung'aro would win Kilifi for Jubilee and give Uhuru 40% of the vote is a cruel joke. He got 10% so you are saying he has increased his support by 300%.

Kericho vote for Raila cannot change. It can increase but not decrease. That is because those who vote for him are largely emigre workers - Luos, Kisii, Luhya etc. Unless you kick them out - as was the case in 1979, 1983, 1988, 1992, 1997 - they will be there to provide that vote.

There are no serious defections to Jubilee during the election period proper while on the other hand NASA continues to receive defectors from Jubilee and high ranking ones (even if you denigrate most). The defections to Jubilee by governors and others was based on blackmail. The NIS embarked on that mission of threats and coercion netting some but alienating others. It is NOT an indicator of popularity. For example threatening Obure with prison and getting him to defect did not earn Jubilee votes in Kisii. Appointing everybody in Nyachae's household to public jobs (incidentally from one of his "houses" and not the others who are resentful) offered ODM a chance it never had. Now Kisii and Nyamira are in ODM. No other place is so orange as Kisii and Nyamira outside Coast and Nyanza. Yet you give Uhuru 40%.

I conclude by telling you that while you believe Jubilee is winning Uhuru and Ruto have sensed defeat and are seriously planning to steal the vote or engineer a military coup.

MOAS is not exact replica of 2013. If that was the case we would simply say Uhuru 51%; Raila+MaDVD 48%; Others 2%; Uhuru still win. But what I try to do is to factor changes that have happened since 2013...and most of that is mainly Uhuru gain grounds on Raila in his strongholds. This is not exact science but I try to guestimate what effect for example the defection of Senator Mwanza, Jay & others will have on Taita - I look at opinion polls - I look at how competitive nomination were - etc. I have added Raila vote in Bomet..because Isaac will him 10%...and reduce it in Kericho..because Franklin/Margerer 4,000 votes are gone. The same for Kilifi, Kwale and name it. That is what MOAS does...

Finally I have my numbers pin up there - the assumption out there - and we can come back on 9th see how crap it is. I can assure you it never crap.