2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[RV Pundit]

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2013 turn out was an absolutel blow out. Nationally about 83-86% of registered voters turned up to vote - which is as impressive as those dictatorship election where winner get 99% of the vote. This really helped Raila avoid an embarrassing defeat (he gained 3% from MOAS 2013 on turn out itself - where I had used historical average turn  out) and Uhuru similarly lost about 3% to settle at 50.5%.

2013 turn out will  be hard to replicate leave alone improve. I think part of the reason people turned up in such number in my view was because you didn't need voter card +ID to vote - as long as you info was in biometric register. In my station I remember many people voting although their details would appear in Lamu. The collapse of those machines probably gave a free for all for people to vote as long as they had IDS.

Most counties averaged 86% - except for Luo, Kalenjin and Kikuyu strongholds (averaged 92%) - and only these five were "bad"
Turkana (76%).
Kwale(72%).
Mombasa (66%).
Kilifi(65%).

If NASA were to improve turn out in those areas to say 86% - they could gain 1% - move from 46% to 47% with Jubilee dropping to 52%. I believe MRC/Pwani sio Kenya nonsense dented turn out and without it - they will certainly Improve.

This election is very easy to call as far as ethnic maths goes unlike previous one. Last one we didn't know how Luhya would vote - with MaDVD/Wamalwa versus ODM - now they are basically in one camp, Kambas will vote NASA ( though there is lot of noise), Luo of course, most of Gusii& Coast will vote NASA.

Jubilee will retain it's bulwark of GEMA+Kalenjin which when you factor high registration + high turn out - gives Jubilee about 44%! - They only need to find 6% from the entire country.

The battleground counties are fewer this time round - the usual culprits - of sparely settled arid and semi-arid northern kenya.

Note if turn out was to drop to historical average of 72% - then expect Jubilee win to increase by 3% - to 56%.

If biometric machine work & manual backup is not deployed - we also see drop in turn out in Kalenjin, Luo and Kikuyu stronghold - where I think lots of ballot stuff maybe happening - meaning Jubilee will be in trouble - Homabay,Muranga and Nyandarua had eye-brow raising 94% turn out.

[Omollo]

The weakness with your hypothesis is that Jubilee has NOT retained its base. It is losing it as we speak. Bomet is gone. There will be no votes in Narok with Tunai going home (despite his appealing to ethnicity). Kajiado is gone (Ole Sakuda publicly defected yesterday and that hapless Ole Lenku guy - is a shame and a gift to NASA).

Turkana is gone and keep an ear to the ground West Pokot and Baringo are both out of Jubilee.

You are right vote suppression was carried out with the manufactured MRC threat which saw massive GSU deployment and harassment of voters in Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and parts of Taveta. We know they will embark on that game in Western soon. It will be contained.

So generally it is a lie that Jubilee has kept its vote. It is something you must say to feel good but it is NOT backed by evidence.

[RV Pundit]

Hey Mr Omollo,

Try to put % - otherwise I don't know where Bomet is gone - I was there recently.

1) I come from Bomet - I can tell for free that Isaac Ruto will be beaten 85% versus 15% for governor seat - but NASA will fair worse - I generously gave them 10% - but I doubt they'll hit that. Right now the few Isaac supporters are jumping ship - including his county ministers. NASA or Raila is just anathema amongst the Kipsigis. Everytime Isaac shouts NASA - he is bleeding 10000 votes - from about 30% he had recently and by election time he'll be well done. He should ask kina Franklin & Margerer.

2) Kajiado - is now more an extension of Nairobi - more than half of Kajiado votes are non-masaai - Sakuda lost Jubilee nomination & is of course bitter like many who lost the hotly contested Jubilee nomination - unlike ODM where folks got direct ticket. The battle in Kajiado is btw Ole Lenku (who come from largest maasai clan in Kajiado) and has support of Kikuyu diaspora (huge). Nkendienye got a free pass last time after Ole Koros was bared for having dodgy degree -and despite Ole Nkaissery (very respected in Kajiado south) holding out with Raila - Jubilee swept all seats in Kajiado except Nkaissery's in 2013 and Uhuru won by 60%. ODM "winning" that by-election after Jubilee nomination was bungled, Jubilee lose crossed over to ODM & other candidates conspired against the winner is probably what is lying to you. Jubilee will sweep Kajiado..there is no Gen NKaissery that will remain.

3) I don't expect any change significant change in Kajiado - but I think winning Gen Nkaissery give Uhuru another 5-10% - coz like I said Kajiado is now mostly the bedroom of Nairobi.

4) Turkana - Jubilee has advantage here - all former Mps,women rep & senator John Munyes (except Nanok & one single MP) decamped to Jubilee- Munyes esp bring in 30% to add to Jubilee 30% [Thanks to Senate Speaker Ethuro]- making Jubiklee go 60% and NASA will struggle with 30% - but with Turkana boy EKuru Aokot also in the run for PORK - I think both NASA & Jubilee will lose 10% to him. So Jubilee 50% of Turkana. Split Turkana into 3 regions - just know Munyes, Nanok & Ethuro control each - and do the maths.

5) West Pokot - 23% that CORD got is gone - those were due to Raila having minister from Pokot - now the battle there is really btw KANU & Jubilee. I know when you hold a single rally as NASA where some Pokot is holding NASA banner upside down - you go ahead and say West Pokot & Baringo is gone. Jubilee will carry West Pokot by about 90%.

6) Baringo is of course Jubilee - it the battle btw KANU & Jubilee (90% plus) - perhaps a few disgruntled votes in Tiaty (registered 15,000) may hate Jubilee whose send long overdue military and police hammers down there.

4) Narok - NASA will fair worse than when they had Ntimama and brigade - last time most Maasai voted for Raila- now it's Purko versus the rest of maasai+diaspora (kipsigis are nearly 40% of Narok) and Kikuyus (5%). Ole Tunai will retain his seat because the Purkos not only have two candidates (Ntutu & Nasa's Ole Lempaka) but coz they've irked every non-purko with their entitlement. Jubilee nomination in Narok were very competitive. ODM I had no takes.

So just reply with you figures - and we wait for 2 months - come here and then say like Kichwa & company said in 2013 & like you said - I was part of the rigging

The weakness with your hypothesis is that Jubilee has NOT retained its base. It is losing it as we speak. Bomet is gone. There will be no votes in Narok with Tunai going home (despite his appealing to ethnicity). Kajiado is gone (Ole Sakuda publicly defected yesterday and that hapless Ole Lenku guy - is a shame and a gift to NASA).

Turkana is gone and keep an ear to the ground West Pokot and Baringo are both out of Jubilee.

You are right vote suppression was carried out with the manufactured MRC threat which saw massive GSU deployment and harassment of voters in Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and parts of Taveta. We know they will embark on that game in Western soon. It will be contained.

So generally it is a lie that Jubilee has kept its vote. It is something you must say to feel good but it is NOT backed by evidence.

[Globalcitizen12]

That is serious that Kikuyus and kalenjins have 44 percent of vote..that makes it almost impossible to beat jubilee. The biggest question is why have our politics remained so tribal that nothing changes?
Raila has a mountain to climb.

[RV Pundit]

GEMA+Kalenjin. That include Meru+Embus+Tharakas+Mbeeres. That was figure before 2013 - on account of registered votes and most likely to turn up.Other ethnic did improve their turn out game in 2013 - and gap reduce to less than 10% from the usual more than 30%. For instance previously about 55-60% of Luhyas/Gusii would turn up compared to 90% of Luo/Kalenjin/GEMA.

That is serious that Kikuyus and kalenjins have 44 percent of vote..that makes it almost impossible to beat jubilee. The biggest question is why have our politics remained so tribal that nothing changes?
Raila has a mountain to climb.

[Omollo]

Pundit

I don't like to cook figures. I respect them so much as to treat them with respect. If I give you a figure, I also have to state how it was arrived at and give you an opportunity to independently arrive at the same.

So you figures about Bomet mean nothing. I am like I said also invested in Bomet. I have my ears to the ground and I can assure you Isaac Ruto's influence grows every day. Please separate your dislike for the man and the reality on the ground. That can color simple facts.

Turkana has one ISSUE: Oil. The Tumbocrats you list are ALL on the wrong side of it. It is known that they were bought so that "Kikuyus" can use them to steal Turkana Oil. Now when you figure that out and include in your calculations, I will take you seriously.

Another mistake you make is to believe that Munyes has own support independent of CORD. Any non CORD support in Turkana went to Ruto's wave. Munyes won because of CORD. He goes to Jubilee with nothing. You may have noticed the silence of your stooges in Turkana. That is because they too have embraced Nanok's agenda which is anti-jubilee.

Ekuru Aukot is a Jubilee Project to minimize the NASA vote just like Abduba is for Marsabit etc

Nkaissery is a spent force heavily invested in his corruption. He lost the art of persuasion and now believes in force. However the important thing here is Jubilee is again relying on unpopular Tumbocrats and mistaking that for support. I too have direct contacts in Kajiado.

The Kikuyu population is double registered in Kajiado and Nairobi/ Kiambu. If the register is cleaned (I hope you are aware Ruto's man was bundled out two days ago while hiding 2.9 fake voters) they can only vote in one place. I have a feeling the money in Nairobi and Kiambu will trump all else. Even then their numbers are not that many.

The loss of ODM in Kajiado arose from multiple candidates running on the CORD ticket. If it happens again, well NASA will have few MPs in Kajiado but take the main seats and get majority of the Presidential vote. Ole Lenku and Katika Ole Matiti are going nowhere.

Ntimama did not campaign for CORD. His daughter was already in Jubilee and he knew his time was up. He just made appearances but was a Jubilee man. So it makes a much greater difference that some of his children are in NASA while a daughter is half inside and half out. Like I said NAROK is now NASA and you better prepare for it. We know dawa ya Tunai.

The Final result:

NASA (Raila) : 53%
Jubilee (Uhuru): 45%

This will end in the first round.

We expect Jubilee to try some games and try to rig. But we pretty much have tamed 80% of their game. The Database is still a problem. The NIS still has access through operatives stationed in the IEBC secretariat. Once we knock them all out I will adjust my figures.

[RV Pundit]

I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.

Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.

We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always  - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.

I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.

Pundit

I don't like to cook figures. I respect them so much as to treat them with respect. If I give you a figure, I also have to state how it was arrived at and give you an opportunity to independently arrive at the same.

So you figures about Bomet mean nothing. I am like I said also invested in Bomet. I have my ears to the ground and I can assure you Isaac Ruto's influence grows every day. Please separate your dislike for the man and the reality on the ground. That can color simple facts.

Turkana has one ISSUE: Oil. The Tumbocrats you list are ALL on the wrong side of it. It is known that they were bought so that "Kikuyus" can use them to steal Turkana Oil. Now when you figure that out and include in your calculations, I will take you seriously.

Another mistake you make is to believe that Munyes has own support independent of CORD. Any non CORD support in Turkana went to Ruto's wave. Munyes won because of CORD. He goes to Jubilee with nothing. You may have noticed the silence of your stooges in Turkana. That is because they too have embraced Nanok's agenda which is anti-jubilee.

Ekuru Aukot is a Jubilee Project to minimize the NASA vote just like Abduba is for Marsabit etc

Nkaissery is a spent force heavily invested in his corruption. He lost the art of persuasion and now believes in force. However the important thing here is Jubilee is again relying on unpopular Tumbocrats and mistaking that for support. I too have direct contacts in Kajiado.

The Kikuyu population is double registered in Kajiado and Nairobi/ Kiambu. If the register is cleaned (I hope you are aware Ruto's man was bundled out two days ago while hiding 2.9 fake voters) they can only vote in one place. I have a feeling the money in Nairobi and Kiambu will trump all else. Even then their numbers are not that many.

The loss of ODM in Kajiado arose from multiple candidates running on the CORD ticket. If it happens again, well NASA will have few MPs in Kajiado but take the main seats and get majority of the Presidential vote. Ole Lenku and Katika Ole Matiti are going nowhere.

Ntimama did not campaign for CORD. His daughter was already in Jubilee and he knew his time was up. He just made appearances but was a Jubilee man. So it makes a much greater difference that some of his children are in NASA while a daughter is half inside and half out. Like I said NAROK is now NASA and you better prepare for it. We know dawa ya Tunai.

The Final result:

NASA (Raila) : 53%
Jubilee (Uhuru): 45%

This will end in the first round.

We expect Jubilee to try some games and try to rig. But we pretty much have tamed 80% of their game. The Database is still a problem. The NIS still has access through operatives stationed in the IEBC secretariat. Once we knock them all out I will adjust my figures.

[Omollo]

Pundit

You got it right in 2002 so did I and many others (No rigging)
In 2007 - You got it right and so did we all - stolen (we all agree on that)
in 2013 - You claim to have got it right. Was not here. I delved in to it and found rigging. You refuse to even entertain the idea and become technicalist referring to the courts and all the officialdom
2017 - You and I are in opposing camps. That is crunch time to determine who between us is The Real Pundit.

Boasting about your past and re-writing it to give yourself invincibility will not help you.

You look at the figures and facts and so do I. More than you. You have an eye for detail so do and I beat you on stamina and singular devotion to a cause any time. So I say may the best Pundit win

The people you mention, PK etc, did not calculate rigging in their propositions. I do. If I reach a point where I am convinced the rigging would overcome NASA or that Jubilee would preponderate, I will state so. For now the momentum is with NASA and Jubilee is in doldrums. Any polls showing Jubilee in 60% now or in future are plain lies.

I would be very surprised if either gets over 55% in the first or second round.

Factors I am watching for:

1. A sudden huge injection of illicit funds by Jubilee which is not countered by NASA
2. A major fallout within NASA which lasts a week before it is settled
3. Vote suppression using violence (indiscriminate nightly mass killings in NASA zones) which has been in the planning since Moi was visited by Mama Ngina
4. Jubilee regains total control over the voter database with the capacity to move voters and mark any as already voted

As of now every one of the people Uhuru trusts with cash to dish out is a thief. So NASA has not had to do much to counter that. However should they use plan D which is to find old KANU networks of old men, we have working antidotes for that as well.

NASA is not making enough noise about the sacking of the IT director and why. That is a disappointment but I think Mudavadi wrote to them with specific demands and we shall await their response.




 

I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.

Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.

We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always  - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.

I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.

[Omollo]

I have noted the relaxed manner Jubilee folks operate with. The gospel they preach is that they had it tougher in 2013 and they won so 2017 is a walkover.

It is widespread.

[RV Pundit]

Sure thing. We shall see.

Pundit

You got it right in 2002 so did I and many others (No rigging)
In 2007 - You got it right and so did we all - stolen (we all agree on that)
in 2013 - You claim to have got it right. Was not here. I delved in to it and found rigging. You refuse to even entertain the idea and become technicalist referring to the courts and all the officialdom
2017 - You and I are in opposing camps. That is crunch time to determine who between us is The Real Pundit.

Boasting about your past and re-writing it to give yourself invincibility will not help you.

You look at the figures and facts and so do I. More than you. You have an eye for detail so do and I beat you on stamina and singular devotion to a cause any time. So I say may the best Pundit win

The people you mention, PK etc, did not calculate rigging in their propositions. I do. If I reach a point where I am convinced the rigging would overcome NASA or that Jubilee would preponderate, I will state so. For now the momentum is with NASA and Jubilee is in doldrums. Any polls showing Jubilee in 60% now or in future are plain lies.

I would be very surprised if either gets over 55% in the first or second round.

Factors I am watching for:

1. A sudden huge injection of illicit funds by Jubilee which is not countered by NASA
2. A major fallout within NASA which lasts a week before it is settled
3. Vote suppression using violence (indiscriminate nightly mass killings in NASA zones) which has been in the planning since Moi was visited by Mama Ngina
4. Jubilee regains total control over the voter database with the capacity to move voters and mark any as already voted

As of now every one of the people Uhuru trusts with cash to dish out is a thief. So NASA has not had to do much to counter that. However should they use plan D which is to find old KANU networks of old men, we have working antidotes for that as well.

NASA is not making enough noise about the sacking of the IT director and why. That is a disappointment but I think Mudavadi wrote to them with specific demands and we shall await their response.




 

I have been in this game for quite some time enough to cook them figures. I have been predicting Kenyan elections & referendum in rcb, nipate.com & now here for nearly 15 yrs now. Every election or referendum I get folks like you who come up here trying to just quote figures and come election time they all disappear.

Last election - PuaKal , Luo Kenya, Pajero and wakina kichwa - shouted horse and promptly disappeared.

We are only 2 months to d-day. After final register of voters is released - I'll give my final figures as always  - and we shall see again - I am pretty sure I'll get a few places wrong - but overally I'll get it right - coz I understand our politics in and out.

I know you'll re-appear here with rigging conspiracy saying I knew the numbers ...like predicted to a dot many of 2013 results - I only missed western (though MaDVD/Wamalwa would do better in BGM&KKM) and the turn out was nothing like I have seen.

[RV Pundit]

That true. First it a re-run of 2013 - when you had 50% - what is there to worry about - and secondly Jubilee been on a campaign spree for 4yrs. I don't think Ruto has left a weekend go to waste without visiting the battleground counties.

I think Uhuru-Mama Ngina are yet to open the floodgates of money - I suspect this will happen anytime now.

Tuju incompetence might complicate the execution and so WSR has to step in and ran the show I suspect.

I have noted the relaxed manner Jubilee folks operate with. The gospel they preach is that they had it tougher in 2013 and they won so 2017 is a walkover.

It is widespread.

[Omollo]

There is another mistake you have made which I failed to mention

You claim that higher turnout will not help NASA. Of course you have based that on already proven false "tyranny of numbers". You erroneously hold that Jubilee Zones have more registered voters than NASA Areas. Now that is another obvious falsehood that I noticed Jubilee supporters are sticking to even as they float in the sea waiting to drown. They just can't let go despite the overwhelming evidence.

When confronted with raw Pre-Audited figures, they begin to talk about a shifting ground that has only benefitted them. When you counter that with facts indicating the same shift has benefitted NASA, they wave it off.

Now Pundit, you are where Raila was in 2011 - 13. You may have wondered why I never joined the campaign. I have this thing called principles. Raila went to Mau Forest in a show of power which became worse when we tried to tell him not to. The arrogance and hubris shock my entire being. I couldn't understand why he was unable to see himself being manipulated by Kibaki.

That came after the Sagana event you alluded to. I have another: After his hospitalization, he allowed himself to be pampered and given a trip to Italy. I suspected it was the pressure of the wife and I got in trouble for openly condemning it.

Now need I show you the parallels? It won't help me or NASA to do so now. But if you shake your head a little you might understand.

Mama Ngina has been on a begging mission to raise money. The trip took her to Moi and Biwott. She has made lots of calls abroad and is considering liquidating some assets "temporarily".  Uhuru has been on a money raising spree. He went to India, China and Qatar. All responded well. There is the Eurobond in South Africa which Zuma is insisting on keeping for himself as part of his retirement. I believe the 1/4 portion banked in Brazil will remain for a rainy day or as part of their pension plan.

Check this out. We have you well monitored Pundit. You don't aim to take government from outside.

[RV Pundit]

Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...

Issue no 1; TURN OUT

I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).

The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...

1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history  - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination  foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2) If turn out goes back to "normal"  -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalejin have historical turned out at  85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.

3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.

Note: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis .

I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).

Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.

And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.

There is another mistake you have made which I failed to mention

You claim that higher turnout will not help NASA. Of course you have based that on already proven false "tyranny of numbers". You erroneously hold that Jubilee Zones have more registered voters than NASA Areas. Now that is another obvious falsehood that I noticed Jubilee supporters are sticking to even as they float in the sea waiting to drown. They just can't let go despite the overwhelming evidence.

When confronted with raw Pre-Audited figures, they begin to talk about a shifting ground that has only benefitted them. When you counter that with facts indicating the same shift has benefitted NASA, they wave it off.

Now Pundit, you are where Raila was in 2011 - 13. You may have wondered why I never joined the campaign. I have this thing called principles. Raila went to Mau Forest in a show of power which became worse when we tried to tell him not to. The arrogance and hubris shock my entire being. I couldn't understand why he was unable to see himself being manipulated by Kibaki.

That came after the Sagana event you alluded to. I have another: After his hospitalization, he allowed himself to be pampered and given a trip to Italy. I suspected it was the pressure of the wife and I got in trouble for openly condemning it.

Now need I show you the parallels? It won't help me or NASA to do so now. But if you shake your head a little you might understand.

Mama Ngina has been on a begging mission to raise money. The trip took her to Moi and Biwott. She has made lots of calls abroad and is considering liquidating some assets "temporarily".  Uhuru has been on a money raising spree. He went to India, China and Qatar. All responded well. There is the Eurobond in South Africa which Zuma is insisting on keeping for himself as part of his retirement. I believe the 1/4 portion banked in Brazil will remain for a rainy day or as part of their pension plan.

Check this out. We have you well monitored Pundit. You don't aim to take government from outside.

[Nefertiti]

How are the Kamba PORK MOAS for Nairobi and Machakos? given the influence of Dr Mutua and Sonko?

[RV Pundit]

I think Kambas will vote NASA in about the same big way - although unlike 2013 when they felt embittered by GEMA/Kibaki snubbing Kalonzo - this time they are not as militant or enthusiastic about NASA.

Jubilee will score anything 10(Makueni)-20%(Machakos)(15%) in the 3 Ukambani counties from average of 5-15% (10%) in 2013. All Ruto hard-work comes down to an extra 5% coz  Muthuma venom is quite deadly when he get going about Kabila mbili...but Jubilee & alied parties will win about half the seat from Wiper(This is Big Ruto Reward). Kalonzo wiper will end up with about 15mps from 28 last time.

Sonko & Mutua will get their votes but I think their influence on PORK will not be much.

How are the Kamba PORK MOAS for Nairobi and Machakos? given the influence of Dr Mutua and Sonko?

[hk]

Last election jubilee got a total of 89k votes from kamba community in eastern. They're bound to increase that even if its just marginally. Joe nyagah who's from mbeere which borders the larger ukambani might garner a few kamba votes his constituency has significant kamba population(mutava musyimi).

[RV Pundit]

Last election jubilee got a total of 89k votes from kamba community in eastern. They're bound to increase that even if its just marginally. Joe nyagah who's from mbeere which borders the larger ukambani might garner a few kamba votes his constituency has significant kamba population(mutava musyimi).

kitui was ngilu..mackakos is now 1/4 cosmopolitan and makueni was 5...but I agree jubilee Will improve in ukambani and wiper is going to fight hard to win seats after kalonzo muthama fight.Tough one.

[Nefertiti]

Mutua is going up as Kalonzo's influence is fading. Since Ruto is foregone Jubilee top-dog now... it will be interesting to see how Mutua's rise will play into the Uhuru succession. 2017- to 22 will be an exciting season... just like 2008-13 when ODM imploded live-live.

[RV Pundit]

Mutua will not knockout Kalonzo that easily. It's gonna take long time and lots of money. He has a good start with 900 candidates running on MCC compared to Kalonzo Wiper(600). He also may benefit from Muthama fallout with Kalonzo.

If he retains his governorship and get like 10 MCC Mps, a senator or another governor ..then Kalonzo political grave would have been dug..he  will just need to drive the last nail on the coffin.

Mutua is quite delusional like Kidero,Kabogo, Munya & Isaac - and so WSR has to keep them on radar so they don't complicate 2022. For the next 10yrs he'll have to fight to take Ukambani mantle from Kalonzo. That will take some time, money and effort.

If Mutua had some political pedigree - he would be making deal with Muthama - . But I doubt his political pedigree.

Mutua is going up as Kalonzo's influence is fading. Since Ruto is foregone Jubilee top-dog now... it will be interesting to see how Mutua's rise will play into the Uhuru succession. 2017- to 22 will be an exciting season... just like 2008-13 when ODM imploded live-live.

[Globalcitizen12]

Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.