Author Topic: To Simanova, For Raila  (Read 10906 times)

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #20 on: July 04, 2016, 07:30:56 PM »
Thanks for the updates Simanova.

For ODM it's never been about power for the sake of power. Sure they can sit back and play the same game TNA/URP are playing.. underhanded deals, assigning officials, pay the asians, the ECK, the courts, ask for international help, no grassroots initiatives just like Kibaki and his NO election campaign strategy who still got away with stealing the presidency.

For ODM, they have a higher calling. They need to stay true to that. A change which involves all Kenyans, like a baby kicking to get out of it's mummy's tummy. But not just that, a higher calling that'll one day save the world.

What we are witnessing is historical and have been for the past decade. A mother pushing persistently against all odds, all corruption, all threats, all risks, all evil, ferociously pushing against the old guard, not falling for the ruse, not succumbing to the easy road, and someday whether anyone supports it or not, this baby, so preciously protected, nurtured with transparency, integrity, grassroots support, respect for all tribes, respect for humanity, is going to be the revolution.

These campaigns are more than just about winning or losing the elections.
Thank you veritas. I am glad that the struggle of ODM / CORD is now reaching further and wider. We are glad that many governments including regional ones have now seen the folly of the Uhuru regime and would like to see the back of it even faster than us.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #21 on: July 04, 2016, 07:51:03 PM »
I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857

Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #22 on: July 04, 2016, 08:34:10 PM »
I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857

Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.

And this helps how?   

I am also surprised that you and your CORD friends appear to have been relying on Nipate.com as your database for the storage of such information; other than the obvious risks, one would expect  you to have such data readily available elsewhere.     At any rate, given that you do not hand any numbers to hand, what is the basis of the contradictory claims/agreements that you have made?
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #23 on: July 04, 2016, 09:09:50 PM »
MoonKi

I think you are refusing to grant CORD its dues while lambasting it.

And what might those dues be?

Quote
Note the following:

1. The IEBC is by law required to provide for continuous registration. That has not been happening uniformly and we now want it changed so all Kenyans have equal access
2. We are pushing for all obstacles to registration to be removed (ID cards, etc)
3. CORD areas have not received as much in resources as say, Central Province. For example, there were more BVR kits in Central than Western and Nyanza (CORD strongholds). This was widely reported in the media. It is that we want corrected.
4. The statistics on existing and potential voters comes from the current IEBC. While we know from the ground that there are many youth that are not registered, using or citing IEBC data is not advisable. Your question will have to await a new commission in place after the ongoing talks.

This is an unhelpfully long story.   I simply asked for concrete numbers on which we could base an objective discussion.    If you do not care for IEBC data---and we need not get into what data would be used in a court case---then whose data are you using to justify your claims?   What exactly are the data anyway?   (Weka hapa hapa.)   And what are sources, the reliability, ... ?

(By the way, CORD should have been working on some of the things in your list, instead of devoting so much resources to the funny and inevitably futile---right from the git-go---OKOA business.)

Quote

There is no genetic predisposition among CORD voters not to register. The notion that they somehow "refuse" to register is wrong and should be stopped. Gerrymander is a well known tactic of those in power. Like I stated, the number of voters in Central rose dramatically in 2007 from a low of 2002. Then in 2013 the number of voters actually fell. It is definitely rising in 2017 unless stopped.

The reason is simple: Kibaki inflated it in 2007. In 2013 the 2 million votes were spread around the country and transferred at will to avoid the over 100% scandal in Nyeri.

What is the source of the numbers on which you base the above claims?   Wait!   The numbers have disappeared.   Right?

Quote
Let us agree on one thing: CORD does not register voters. That remains the work of the IEBC. CORD can mobilize voters to register. I stated that we have not done as much. What I did not say is that other parties have also not done better. What we have is the IEBC and the agencies charged with issuance of ID cards being used by Uhuru Kenyatta to tilt the balance. The IEBC is responsible for voter education however we have seen only mediocrity in the past. My reference is not only on this cycle or election but for all time. Kenyans need to be educated so ^for example they reject electoral bribery, whether dressed as Projects or "Kutenga pesa" or harambee.

OK, let CORD continue to fiddle and wait for IEBC to educate and register its supporters.  On red: Once again, you are spinning yourself into confusion.   You stated that CORD is "lagging behind".   That implies that somebody else is doing much better.   

Quote
The data for 2007 appears to have miraculously vanished from the net since the last time I referred to it. But you can have the 2002 figures.

Figures from 15 years ago do not help when it is the 2007, 2013, and, especially,  current figures that I am interested in.   It really doesn't help to have all sorts of claims bandied about only to be told that "the numbers have disappeared" when something resembling solid evidence is asked for.   

But let's, for a minute, focus on the 2017 elections.   Once again:

Quote
1) How many eligible voters are to be found in CORD strongholds?

(2) Of those, how many are registered?

Do you know?   Does anyone in the CORD leadership know?   I have noted your statement that you "know from the ground" .... Well, what figures do you have "from the ground"?

If I were a CORD strategist, I'd also be interested in other figures, of which I have already given an example:   of those who show up to enjoy the Dancing CORD leadership, how many are registered to vote?   

(Note: A properly organized CORD should not require the IEBC in order to determine the levels of registration among its supporters.)

Listen (so to speak, in a manner of speaking ...), I admire your devotion to CORD and its "cause", which, as Terminator has noted, is slightly different from the Sunday Morning Sermon---live on the internet!  no need to even get out of bed!---by Pastor Veritas.    But you lot should be wary of the dangers of self-deception, which is the inevitable end-product of poorly-thought-out spin.  The crowds show up for the performances, and one is sure that things are solid "on the ground", but on voting day?

MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2016, 11:31:58 PM »
veritas,

I could be forgiven for thinking you are talking about Thirdway.  Thirdway is idealist and hopeless.  No fault of their own.  Choosing between Jubilant and CORD is a matter of tribal loyalty.  There is no higher calling behind the decision.  That is Kenya today.  It shows little sign of changing in the foreseeable future.  I hope I am mistaken though.

CORD is a marriage convenience for purposes of capturing power.  Change?  What change do they propose?  The faces and tribes of the looters?

To put it another way, Kalonzo will not hesitate to bolt from CORD if he is promised Jubilant backing for high office.  Same thing with Raila.  The clean Kenyan politician, you can count on one hand.  Raila is not one of those.

That sums it quite well.   The "noble" ideas have little to do with reality.    In fact, it is possible that CORD could rouse its slumbering base by clearly indicating that it is their turn to eat---which it actually is---and this is how .... What's more, that could easily be confirmed by "eating patterns" over the last few decades.   Wake up, vote, and get your share ... or get f**ked some more!   

Kalonzo?   Smooth in a slithery way.   Just think of the possible post-PEV arrangements.   He is the sort of person of whom they say: "Don't let the nice smile during the handshake fool you; focus on how many fingers you have left at the end".   

Raila: His enormous sacrifices, especially against Moi, are known all over the place. Still,  one cannot dine out indefinitely on a heroic past.   Nor is it reasonable to expect that aging revolutionaries will keep breathing out fire until the end of times. The man now needs at least two things: (a) good, solid advisors, and (b) a willingness to listen to them.  On the present path, his story is ultimately a tragedy of the "coulda-shoulda-mighta" variation: could have been this, should have been that, might have been the other ... but, alas, never was.

Today's Kenya is all just a matter of which thieves are on top, what they steal, how the loot gets distributed ... and that is how it will be for quite some time.   When people are ready---really, really  ready----for a change, there will be a change.   Until then, most Kenyans will continue to sink into the shit.  (Sometimes literally .... see other thread.)
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2016, 11:54:59 PM »
Do not be in an hurry, the figures are available. I will present the same to you. Then I would hope you can explain the astronomical rise of voters in Central in 2007 (in effect nearly doubling 2002 figure. Followed by a decline in 2013. I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration. One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!

Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!

I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857

Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.

And this helps how?   

I am also surprised that you and your CORD friends appear to have been relying on Nipate.com as your database for the storage of such information; other than the obvious risks, one would expect  you to have such data readily available elsewhere.     At any rate, given that you do not hand any numbers to hand, what is the basis of the contradictory claims/agreements that you have made?

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #26 on: July 05, 2016, 12:04:36 AM »
Do not be in an hurry, the figures are available. I will present the same to you.

I'm in no hurry.  Please present.

Quote
Then I would hope you can explain the astronomical rise of voters in Central in 2007 (in effect nearly doubling 2002 figure. Followed by a decline in 2013.

Why on earth do you have such hopes?   All I did was to ask for the figures so that we cold have an objective discussion.    Instead of hoping for fantastic explanations, why not supply the figures and let the discussions begin.

Quote
I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration.

You lost me there.   Again.   Where, when, and in what form were such claims made?

Quote
One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!

Which rises are those?   The ones based on the lost Nipate.com figures?   Once again, I urge you to provide some figures---with bases, sources, etc.---before we get so worked up.

Quote
Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!

This really funny!   Good one!   I ask for concrete figures, you say they are lost, and then you turn around and ask me to provide the figures that I asked for!    Very cheeky.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #27 on: July 05, 2016, 12:32:12 AM »
MoonKI

You mock CORD's rallies and insinuate that the leadership is inept and unable to mobilize voters.

You do not provide any concrete evidence of any other political party that has done what you claim CORD is failing to do.

There is first of no political party in those areas since no elections have ever taken place. There can be no party if there are no members.  We know this from the KANU (the party Uhuru used to lead) days.

My position is that Uhuru and company are using state resources and agencies to inflate voter lists and that there is no party machinery to mobilize voter registration. You are in effect saying CORD should do what Jubilee is doing while attributing state activities to Jubilee. Well, it is not possible. Proper figures will only be available when we have a credible commission

Its a pity you are asking me. Did not the IEBC give some figures of their "targets" in different areas? You can obtain the crap from their website in pdf. I simply do not attach much to the rubbish and will not be quoting it.
Quote
Figures from 15 years ago do not help when it is the 2007, 2013, and, especially,  current figures that I am interested in.
I do not seek to "help". My intention is to prove that the voter figures in Central which you and others try to imply are a result of non-public rally mobilization are actually fake and cheap inflation.

Well, what we are looking for are the voter registration figures for 2007. They were all over the internet and now they are not. If this is untrue then kindly find and post them. I have posted for 2002 and have the 2013 ready. I would remind you the reason for seeking the figures is to show that in 2002 the number of Central voters was nearly half what it became in 2007. The 2013 figures will show a DECLINE in the numbers.

Now it is essential to have them so you can answer some simple questions like why there was a decline. I note your earlier speculative explanation (without the all important 2007 figures) in which you suggested a natural increase. That is how all normal people assume it would be. However the missing figures say a different story as you read in the discussion at nipate.com

OKOA was one way of working on the said list. CORD was therefore attempting to work on the list. When the IEBC frustrated the referendum, CORD switched gears and decided that the IEBC thieves were indeed the obstacles that had to go. Rallies and demos have almost achieved that MoonKi.
Quote
(Note: A properly organized CORD should not require the IEBC in order to determine the levels of registration among its supporters.)
BTW what do you hope to achieve by obtaining the number of eligible voters in CORD strongholds? I may have lost track of what it is that is so important about it. Hopefully once we have forced Jubilee to agree to a new commission, I should provide you with reliable data and hopefully the reason why you need the info will be revealed!

[/quote]

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #28 on: July 05, 2016, 12:42:45 AM »
Quote
I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration.
You lost me there.   Again.   Where, when, and in what form were such claims made?
Quote from: MoonKi
** Less of the huge (and exhilarating)  "We love you to death, Jakom!" rallies and more of the dull, hard grunt-work of getting people to register and to get out to vote.   
Quote
One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!

Which rises are those?   The ones based on the lost Nipate.com figures?   Once again, I urge you to provide some figures---with bases, sources, etc.---before we get so worked up.

Quote
Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!

This really funny!   Good one!   I ask for concrete figures, you say they are lost, and then you turn around and ask me to provide the figures that I asked for!    Very cheeky.
Not really, when you denigrate the legitimate statement that figures were available and were posted and now are completely vanished, I am bound to pursue it in other ways. The 2007 voter registration details were / are public information whose non appearance should draw your concern not mockery.

You make a great mockery of the fact that i linked to nipate.com and irritatingly suggest that CORD and I keep our information there. Yet you know that is not the case, If I were going to suggest something existed and it has disappeared, it helps to prove the disappearance at least. You have decided to completely and deliberately misunderstand the reasons for citing nipate.com and turned it to ridicule.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #29 on: July 05, 2016, 12:53:08 AM »
Listen (so to speak, in a manner of speaking ...), I admire your devotion to CORD and its "cause", which, as Terminator has noted, is slightly different from the Sunday Morning Sermon---live on the internet!  no need to even get out of bed!---by Pastor Veritas.    But you lot should be wary of the dangers of self-deception, which is the inevitable end-product of poorly-thought-out spin.  The crowds show up for the performances, and one is sure that things are solid "on the ground", but on voting day?
We can never agree on rallies. I believe they are essential to political mobilization. Rallies are part and parcel of Kenya's political culture.

I stand to be corrected but nowhere have i ever suggested that all those who attend rallies are supporters of the convening party. Crowds come for multiple reasons and yes entertainment is one of them. Is there anything wrong? Has CORD demanded an electoral victory on the basis of rally attendance?

 That kind of thinking is found within the deepest of Jubilee thoughts. It is the reason they ban rallies and unleash trained murderers to beat, maim and kill citizens who come to these rallies to get information, meet candidates and potential candidates so that they can make a choice.

I prefer rallies to TVs, Radios and other gadgets of the wealthy.

Still on rallies, how many did Ruto hold in Kericho during the by election?

It may help you to recall that CORD has won by elections in Kajiado and Malindi. Votes were counted and rallies had been held.

BTW Uhuru and Ruto have held lots of rallies around the country. Did you say if the other side were to do it...? Does it mean you are unaware of these rallies and public bribery meetings called "harambees" by Arap Mashamba?


Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #30 on: July 05, 2016, 04:30:04 AM »
Simanova:

Before I get into the stuff below, I should let you know that I'm actually on your side.    A little story about a little story:

A few years ago, I watched a movie, set in a small Russian town, about some small-time Russian hoodlums.    The hoodlums kept complaining that the authorities were always  harassing "honest thieves" (themselves) while "criminal bandits" were getting away with everything.     According to the former, the differences between the two types were  that the "honest thieves" had a sense of moderation, an understanding of the circumstances of the robbed, ...., an applied moral philosophy of theft, if you will.    Thus, for example, if "criminal bandits" came upon a little old lady who had just withdrawn her monthly pension, they would beat the crap out of her and grab everything; the "honest thieves", on the other hand, would not indulge in such gratuitous violence and would  leave the old lady with at least enough money for bus fare home and a phone call for some help.  "Honest thieves" kept the family (wife and kids) aware of, and sometimes involved in, their "business" activities, and major "achievements" were openly celebrated with the local community; "criminal bandits" on the other hand slunk about under the cover of darkness and mystery.   Etc.   Etc.  Etc.

Not too long ago, CJ Mutunga stated that Kenya's is a bandit economy.   He was  quite right.   What's more,  that's not about to change anytime soon.   Kenyans don't want change badly enough.   Yes, they will complain endlessly, but what really bothers them is that it's those other people and their "our man" who's doing all the stealing.    The theft itself is never a real issue.   And the aforementioned Russians would agree with that---that it need not, of itself, be an issue---but criminal banditry is quite another matter.   In these sorts of environment ...   

Given all  that ... Kenya being Kenya and Kenyans being Kenyans and evolution working at an awfully slow pace:

What I think CORD can bring---and which is why I would support it---is a government of "honest thieves", in place of  the present one of  "criminal bandits".    Theft in Kenya seems inevitable, and all seem to be into it or eagerly wanting in.  But does it have to be so crude?   Take, for example, the NYS heist.   It would be one thing to be told that some clever hacker got into the "theft-proof" computer system and did x, y, and z.   But "someone stole the CEO's password and used it in the middle of the night to add 0s"?   That's unnecessarily and thoughtlessly insulting to the public and is the sort of thing that separates "honest thieves" from "criminal bandits".       

(Terminator is right, in the essence of his comments, but he needs to appreciate the differences in types of robbers.)

Of course, to form a government, CORD would have to ....

Now, back to your story:

You mock CORD's rallies and insinuate that the leadership is inept and unable to mobilize voters.

You do not provide any concrete evidence of any other political party that has done what you claim CORD is failing to do.

Where did I mock them?   I simply pointed out the facts.    The "other political party" would be Jubilee in 2013.  You didn't see the evidence?  CORD needs to stop  wailing endlessly about "we wuz robbed!" and learn something from having been out-organized.   

Quote
My position is that Uhuru and company are using state resources and agencies to inflate voter lists and that there is no party machinery to mobilize voter registration. You are in effect saying CORD should do what Jubilee is doing while attributing state activities to Jubilee. Well, it is not possible. Proper figures will only be available when we have a credible commission.

If you look carefully at my last comments, I'm not necessarily asking for figures from any commission.   I'm asking for CORD's figures----from whatever source---as to how its voter registration is going. 

Quote
Well, what we are looking for are the voter registration figures for 2007. They were all over the internet and now they are not. If this is untrue then kindly find and post them. I have posted for 2002 and have the 2013 ready. I would remind you the reason for seeking the figures is to show that in 2002 the number of Central voters was nearly half what it became in 2007. The 2013 figures will show a DECLINE in the numbers.

Now it is essential to have them so you can answer some simple questions like why there was a decline. I note your earlier speculative explanation (without the all important 2007 figures) in which you suggested a natural increase. That is how all normal people assume it would be. However the missing figures say a different story as you read in the discussion at nipate.com

I no longer read anything at nipate.com, which is probably just as well, given that the figures in question have been "lost" since you posted them there.    Look, until you can supply the 2007 figures, I suggest you refrain from using them in your arguments.

Quote
OKOA was one way of working on the said list. CORD was therefore attempting to work on the list. When the IEBC frustrated the referendum, CORD switched gears and decided that the IEBC thieves were indeed the obstacles that had to go.

OKOA was a hopelessly block-headed movement, and I don't just mean "agents" eating CORD money while "registering" phantoms.    If someone had asked me, here is what I would have said: It doesn't matter how many millions of signatures you have ... to get a referendum, the IEBC has to be on board.   The obvious way to stymie things would be to say it does not have enough have sufficient money or something that require legislative action.  For that to happen, parliament has to act.   And who controls parliament?  CORD did not even get that far, but how did it plan to get around that?   

And here's another question: CORD decided IEBC had to go because they frustrated the referendum?    Really?    The "we wuz robbed!" from 2013 didn't excite them enough to get moving?   

Quote
BTW what do you hope to achieve by obtaining the number of eligible voters in CORD strongholds?

I don't hope to achieve anything; but, as I have stated, numbers would provide a more objective basis for a reasonable discussion.   
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #31 on: July 05, 2016, 05:48:23 AM »
Not really, when you denigrate the legitimate statement that figures were available and were posted and now are completely vanished, I am bound to pursue it in other ways. The 2007 voter registration details were / are public information whose non appearance should draw your concern not mockery.

You make a great mockery of the fact that i linked to nipate.com and irritatingly suggest that CORD and I keep our information there. Yet you know that is not the case, If I were going to suggest something existed and it has disappeared, it helps to prove the disappearance at least. You have decided to completely and deliberately misunderstand the reasons for citing nipate.com and turned it to ridicule.

I think you are making too much of this.  I asked for some numbers.  Your response: you posted them on some whacko website, they are no longer there, and so you don't actually have any numbers to provide but will nevertheless keep arguing on the basis of the "missing" numbers.  I find it amusing, but that's not to mean that I'm making fun of you.   What else am I supposed to make of it?   Accept it and keep going with an argument based on phantom numbers?
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38335
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #32 on: July 05, 2016, 10:34:31 AM »
I see you guys are still busy flogging a dead horse. ODM in 2017 will be extremely lucky to get 50mps. The party is dead as dodo in most area except a few fringes here and there. Right now if you were to find Mps still loyal to the party outside Luo Nyanza; you'd be hard pressed to find them. RV, Central and Eastern it clearly has nearly zero Mp still loyal to them...maybe 3  mps. In Western..it down to 5 or so Mps...the rest are either Jubilee learning or storming out or in Ford-Kenya. If you go to COAST and NEP..it has hammorraged most of it mps.

Raila inherited huge junk of KANU which merged with NDP to form LDP. Then he had LDP merge with remainder of KANU to form ODM.

Look at what he has done to Moi's KANU aka ODM? He has killed it. He is now left with NDP.

Right now if you were to remove Joho/Kingi/Nanok/Oparanya the party would be practically NDP (Luo party).

All Jubilee (esp Ruto) need to focus in 2017 is to politically finish off Joho/Kingi/Nanok -easy beezy and oparanya --and Raila will be left with as much support as he started back in 96.

Offline Empedocles

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 823
  • Reputation: 15758
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #33 on: July 05, 2016, 11:39:30 AM »
I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857

Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.

Here, maybe this is what you were looking for?

Quote
Kuma Dawa

I asked you to explain why there was a decline in the number of registered voters in central in 2013 following an unexplained spike from 2002 and 2007. It is NOT natural. Populations grow and it is unlikely that there would be such a decline unless the 2007 figures were cooked and could not be sustained.

Source:

Registered voters - 1997
Registered voters 2002
Registered voters 2007
Registered voters 2013

Clarify what your mean by "Other comparative figures"??

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #34 on: July 05, 2016, 02:41:16 PM »
Empedocles

Yes and No.

If you follow the link for 2007, you come to wikipedia. There you shall find the relevant information has been edited away. That is my complaint. It is however very "helpful" in pouring ridicule on me.

I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857

Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.

Here, maybe this is what you were looking for?

Quote
Kuma Dawa

I asked you to explain why there was a decline in the number of registered voters in central in 2013 following an unexplained spike from 2002 and 2007. It is NOT natural. Populations grow and it is unlikely that there would be such a decline unless the 2007 figures were cooked and could not be sustained.

Source:

Registered voters - 1997
Registered voters 2002
Registered voters 2007
Registered voters 2013

Clarify what your mean by "Other comparative figures"??

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #35 on: July 05, 2016, 02:48:37 PM »
Pundit

I am used to your declarations and speculations which you often dress as hard uncontested facts. MPs defecting does not mean a party has lost support.

We had an MP from Malindi defect to Jubilee. He was rewarded with a cabinet post. Did we lose the seat?

We had another defect and become internal security minister. Did we lose the seat? So how is it that despite all the Euro Bond cash, Jubilee is not taking a single seat from ODM? How is it that the planned mass defection at the coast led by Gideon Mung'aro and a mini election failed to take off and Uhuru had to change the law to save the defectors and avoid by elections?

You have a right to make your predictions and speculate. In turn, I too have the same right and now exercise it by telling you, Jubilee will be a minority party in Parliament. We shall take the Presidency and both houses in addition to a majority of the County governments.

I see you guys are still busy flogging a dead horse. ODM in 2017 will be extremely lucky to get 50mps. The party is dead as dodo in most area except a few fringes here and there. Right now if you were to find Mps still loyal to the party outside Luo Nyanza; you'd be hard pressed to find them. RV, Central and Eastern it clearly has nearly zero Mp still loyal to them...maybe 3  mps. In Western..it down to 5 or so Mps...the rest are either Jubilee learning or storming out or in Ford-Kenya. If you go to COAST and NEP..it has hammorraged most of it mps.

Raila inherited huge junk of KANU which merged with NDP to form LDP. Then he had LDP merge with remainder of KANU to form ODM.

Look at what he has done to Moi's KANU aka ODM? He has killed it. He is now left with NDP.

Right now if you were to remove Joho/Kingi/Nanok/Oparanya the party would be practically NDP (Luo party).

All Jubilee (esp Ruto) need to focus in 2017 is to politically finish off Joho/Kingi/Nanok -easy beezy and oparanya --and Raila will be left with as much support as he started back in 96.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #36 on: July 05, 2016, 03:03:13 PM »
MoonKi

There is no way you can compare Jubilee High way robbers to CORD. Never in the history of this country has there been such a thieving government. The thievery is both brobdingnagian and perverse. It is the only time I have witnessed the sum stolen increasing on a daily basis and by the tens of millions.

Whatever government CORD forms will be less corrupt - even if only because the records set are so low one has to go below ground to reach their tails. If Jubilee wins another term it will be the end of this country as we know it. That can not be allowed to happen.

We know they are busy bribing politicians and counting that as popular support. Many of our people have sought permission to go and get their share of the loot and we have few options but let them go. But mark my words, Jubilee is only getting back in office by rigging. And we know it and they will have a harder time doing that than 2013.

Offline Empedocles

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 823
  • Reputation: 15758
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #37 on: July 05, 2016, 03:04:45 PM »
Empedocles

Yes and No.

If you follow the link for 2007, you come to wikipedia. There you shall find the relevant information has been edited away. That is my complaint. It is however very "helpful" in pouring ridicule on me.

Wikipedia keeps an Edit History which for the 2007 elections can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kenyan_general_election,_2002&action=history

Your numbers are still available.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38335
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #38 on: July 05, 2016, 03:26:16 PM »
Kajiado was just a fluke...ODM candidate was rigged out in Jubilee nomination..so I won't count that.CORD is dead as dodo in entire Maasai land. Admittedly like I said..ODM is still strong in few parts of coast (see Kingi-Joho-Operanya-Nanok)...but that support is waning day by day. We will keep watching this space but as of now...your dear party is clearly on the ropes...and Ruto is not pulling any punches. Uhuru has not yet started throwing them.
Pundit

I am used to your declarations and speculations which you often dress as hard uncontested facts. MPs defecting does not mean a party has lost support.

We had an MP from Malindi defect to Jubilee. He was rewarded with a cabinet post. Did we lose the seat?

We had another defect and become internal security minister. Did we lose the seat? So how is it that despite all the Euro Bond cash, Jubilee is not taking a single seat from ODM? How is it that the planned mass defection at the coast led by Gideon Mung'aro and a mini election failed to take off and Uhuru had to change the law to save the defectors and avoid by elections?

You have a right to make your predictions and speculate. In turn, I too have the same right and now exercise it by telling you, Jubilee will be a minority party in Parliament. We shall take the Presidency and both houses in addition to a majority of the County governments.

Offline Simanova

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 917
  • Reputation: 4335
Re: To Simanova, For Raila
« Reply #39 on: July 05, 2016, 04:06:25 PM »
I don't get it. ODM won in Kajiado and then the victory does not count? And did you just say Jubilee rigged? Are you not the one who was praising Jubilee's impeccable nominations only yesterday?

CORD wins a seat in Maasai - which is a measure of its popularity and you want me to discard that and listen to your punditry about CORD being dead? I seem to recall you predicting Jubliee sweep of Kajiado, Malindi and Kericho. CORD stayed out of Kericho and now going by what you confess, Salat was right that Jubilee (Minus KANU) stole the seat from KANU.

How is the support waning when CORD wins elections despite Eurobond cash? Do you have some other secret method of measuring support outside elections?

Uhuru has been campaigning brother:

1. He camped in Mombasa with brown Eurobond envelopes. He organized a by election to test his "victory".CORD gave him a bloody nose,
2. He then went to Kakamega but his love for foreign trips saved him the humiliation. He dished out a few brown envelopes but mostly targeted MaDVDs supporters who lined up and got their Eurobonds. Kakamega remains solid (as you admit)
3. He then went to NEP and could have been a threat except he fenced in people, reminding them of the days DCs used to fence them in for forceful meetings. He lost badly and is now revenging on the Garissa Governor with trumped up charges. His man Duale is being retired for his troubles
4. Uhuru then went to camp in Ukambani with Campaign Chap Chap. Needless to say Jubilee is getting zilch from there. They dished out Eurobonds to MPs. Then they detained Muthama. Ruto is a gift that keeps giving CORD.


Kajiado was just a fluke...ODM candidate was rigged out in Jubilee nomination..so I won't count that.CORD is dead as dodo in entire Maasai land. Admittedly like I said..ODM is still strong in few parts of coast (see Kingi-Joho-Operanya-Nanok)...but that support is waning day by day. We will keep watching this space but as of now...your dear party is clearly on the ropes...and Ruto is not pulling any punches. Uhuru has not yet started throwing them.