South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya and such economies in trouble

[Nefertiti]

The way I understand what you mean by demographics.  A population with a large working age component.  Preferably healthy and skilled.  And a smaller dependent component.  It is one of many factors, if the most important if I understand you right.

If one can borrow Raila's lyrical flourish.  The country is like a soccer team.  A good demographic and other useful factors like minerals, location etc are like players on this team.  The demographic is like Leonel Messi. 

The question arises.  Is it enough to assemble a group of talented individuals and put them on the field and expect them to bring back the champions cup or whatever it is that good soccer teams normally bring back?  If not, what is the missing aspect of this team?

Have there been instances when such a talented group has lost to teams with less gifted players?  If yes, what did the less talented team have over the group of gifted individuals?

There is limitation in ability to assemble the soccer team. Picture Harambee Stars. Ad hoc assembly, little joint training, poor pay, etc. It reflects "Team Kenya" perfectly. It is an investment -- time, effort, money, etc. At maturity you get good payoff.

[hk]

Actually manufacturing as a percentage of overall economy hasn't been declining but has held the same percentage  meaning its growing at the same pace as the rest of the economy ndii had a good article about it here http://www.nation.co.ke/news/specials/How-scholars-miss-the-point-on-Africa-economy/-/2101466/2127168/-/3qnfr1z/-/index.html . Kenya primary manufacturing is in mainly cement,metal, and food manufacturing. Nowadays it makes more sense to setup factories in rural areas because rds are relatively good, electricity is readily available (and kplc is putting up substations everywhere cutting down on blackouts), land and labour is cheap in rural areas. Kenya might not be producing fridges or cookers soon but agri processing and food manufacturing will be a big part of the economy. In that way kenya is going to be more like Thailand than china or korea. And yes formalisation of retail sector is playing a big part in growth of light manufacturing.

I don't recall anyone saying that it has been declining.   The statement I made is that as a % of GDP it has  remained largely unchanged since independence---mostly hovering around 10% with a few flourishes above and below that.   

You say that "kenya is going to be more like Thailand than china or korea".  Really?   How much of Japanese, Korea and Chinese manufacturing is now being "outsourced" to Thailand?  And Kenya?

Here are the real questions: (a) What countries in modern times have industrialized with manufacturing at staying at that level over such a long period.   (b) If Kenya is supposed to be an exception, on what basis is that to be so?

it makes more sense to setup factories in rural areas because roads are relatively good, electricity is readily available

I'll skip questions about how much electricity it takes to power a factory, as opposed to a small homestead in Nyalgunaga.   Instead, I will ask this: How many factories are being set up in rural Kenya?  If none, what are the plans to set up any?   (We'll do the workforce aspect later.)

I think we should be clear in noting the difference between "what makes sense"/"what we dream of" and "what is real"/"what we are working towards".

Agri-processing is the first step which is what is happening in kenya now. There're numerous agri-processing companies being setup in rural areas. Case in point ENP in maragua http://www.equatorialnut.com/ .Previously such a factory would have been in either Thika or Nairobi or another in njoro http://www.njorocanning.co.ke/ setup to process the abundant fresh produce in rural Nakuru county. Kenya like Thailand is starting with agri-processing manufacturing http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081815/emerging-markets-analyzing-thailands-gdp.asp  then hopefully it will graduate to more complex manufacturing.

[RV Pundit]

We are doing fine in that sub-sector. You just need to visit any supermarket and you'll find so many kenyan brands. Now I hear Shah's Bidco are also going big in the same sector. I wish we could replicate the same in other sectors...esp I repeat leather & textile...these are very low hanging fruits. Then we can next go big in steel industries.

Agri-processing is the first step which is what is happening in kenya now. There're numerous agri-processing companies being setup in rural areas. Case in point ENP in maragua http://www.equatorialnut.com/ .Previously such a factory would have been in either Thika or Nairobi or another in njoro http://www.njorocanning.co.ke/ setup to process the abundant fresh produce in rural Nakuru county. Kenya like Thailand is starting with agri-processing manufacturing http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081815/emerging-markets-analyzing-thailands-gdp.asp  then hopefully it will graduate to more complex manufacturing.

[RV Pundit]

I think you're alluding to leadership. But in this case national leadership. I think leadership & governorship need to be looked wholesomely. What sort of leaders you have accross all levels and strata. Are we producing better leaders. The same with Harambee star. Without a steady pipeline of footballers from primary school to national team...it a pipe dream. The same with kenyan. You should take as much keen interest on the quality of leadership in the local DIP or Primary Board of Governors as you would take of Mps, Senators, Governors and PORK. Most of our leaders begin small...chairmen of cattle dips...BOG of a certain school...a councillor..then mayor..then MP..then governor..and the PORK. Those in proffesional career do the same...chairmen of xyc associaiton...then sacco...then maybe PS..then politics.

So leadership & governorship has to be looked at as a WHOLE. We need to stop obsessing with Uhuru or Raila.

The question arises.  Is it enough to assemble a group of talented individuals and put them on the field and expect them to bring back the champions cup or whatever it is that good soccer teams normally bring back?  If not, what is the missing aspect of this team?

Have there been instances when such a talented group has lost to teams with less gifted players?  If yes, what did the less talented team have over the group of gifted individuals?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I think you're alluding to leadership. But in this case national leadership. I think leadership & governorship need to be looked wholesomely. What sort of leaders you have accross all levels and strata. Are we producing better leaders. The same with Harambee star. Without a steady pipeline of footballers from primary school to national team...it a pipe dream. The same with kenyan. You should take as much keen interest on the quality of leadership in the local DIP or Primary Board of Governors as you would take of Mps, Senators, Governors and PORK. Most of our leaders begin small...chairmen of cattle dips...BOG of a certain school...a councillor..then mayor..then MP..then governor..and the PORK. Those in proffesional career do the same...chairmen of xyc associaiton...then sacco...then maybe PS..then politics.

So leadership & governorship has to be looked at as a WHOLE. We need to stop obsessing with Uhuru or Raila.

The question arises.  Is it enough to assemble a group of talented individuals and put them on the field and expect them to bring back the champions cup or whatever it is that good soccer teams normally bring back?  If not, what is the missing aspect of this team?

Have there been instances when such a talented group has lost to teams with less gifted players?  If yes, what did the less talented team have over the group of gifted individuals?

Leadership is part of it.  The most important is synergy.  The trust in the steps.  Institutions have to work for everyone whether Raila or kamwana is in power.  Politics should be an afterthought.  Failure is easy.  Success depends on many things going right.  All it takes for the local dip to fail is some asshole deciding to replace the requisite amount or type of chemicals with some useless placebo and keep the money.

The analogy came up because of what recently happened with Harambee Stars when they had issues securing a flight to some West African destination.  This team, at least on paper, is the best talent Kenya has been able to muster.  Yet it was easy to see they are going nowhere.  The few incentives they get are just pocketed straight up.  The team could not count on optimal contributions from unmotivated players.

The analogy also works with projects such as software development and others.  You have this world class developer working on a project.  Ownership has decided to sit on his bonus.  Big plans must be put on hold.  His young son must be pulled from the kids league, swim club, no Disneyland vacation etc.  And the problem is replicated across the team.

On the ground in Kenya, get rich quick schemes.  Youth employment initiatives, end up in basements of banks and sacks of cash exchanging hands.  The same entity that gave the country Huduma centers, is the same one giving Raila and kamwana the next Baghdad Boys and Mungiki for the next cycle.  It's not so much the money that is lost than the message that everybody gets that is the real problem; hard work does not pay.

[RV Pundit]

I agree but I suspect you buy this top-down approach. You think if we fix the top....then it will cascade. If we get this Lee or Kagame or Magafuli..you can fix the society. I say you cannot fix the top if you cannot fix the bottom. The bottom feeds the top. That is why for me..it doesn't interest me that we have good leaders here and there. Therefore me if there was indicator that we were doing well leadership wise...then it has to come from national data cutting across all levels.That leadership will come from general populace....and therefore if general populace mostly never reached high school..then that is reflected. If they are corrupt..that is reflected. If they are poor...that is reflected.

Leadership is part of it.  The most important is synergy.  The trust in the steps.  Institutions have to work for everyone whether Raila or kamwana is in power.  Politics should be an afterthought.  Failure is easy.  Success depends on many things going right.  All it takes for the local dip to fail is some asshole deciding to replace the requisite amount or type of chemicals with some useless placebo and keep the money.

The analogy came up because of what recently happened with Harambee Stars when they had issues securing a flight to some West African destination.  This team, at least on paper, is the best talent Kenya has been able to muster.  Yet it was easy to see they are going nowhere.  The few incentives they get are just pocketed straight up.  The team could not count on optimal contributions from unmotivated players.

The analogy also works with projects such as software development and others.  You have this world class developer working on a project.  Ownership has decided to sit on his bonus.  Big plans must be put on hold.  His young son must be pulled from the kids league, swim club, no Disneyland vacation etc.  And the problem is replicated across the team.

On the ground in Kenya, get rich quick schemes.  Youth employment initiatives, end up in basements of banks and sacks of cash exchanging hands.  The same entity that gave the country Huduma centers, is the same one giving Raila and kamwana the next Baghdad Boys and Mungiki for the next cycle.  It's not so much the money that is lost than the message that everybody gets that is the real problem; hard work does not pay.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I agree but I suspect you buy this top-down approach. You think if we fix the top....then it will cascade. If we get this Lee or Kagame or Magafuli..you can fix the society. I say you cannot fix the top if you cannot fix the bottom. The bottom feeds the top. That is why for me..it doesn't interest me that we have good leaders here and there. Therefore me if there was indicator that we were doing well leadership wise...then it has to come from national data cutting across all levels.That leadership will come from general populace....and therefore if general populace mostly never reached high school..then that is reflected. If they are corrupt..that is reflected. If they are poor...that is reflected.

Leadership is part of it.  The most important is synergy.  The trust in the steps.  Institutions have to work for everyone whether Raila or kamwana is in power.  Politics should be an afterthought.  Failure is easy.  Success depends on many things going right.  All it takes for the local dip to fail is some asshole deciding to replace the requisite amount or type of chemicals with some useless placebo and keep the money.

The analogy came up because of what recently happened with Harambee Stars when they had issues securing a flight to some West African destination.  This team, at least on paper, is the best talent Kenya has been able to muster.  Yet it was easy to see they are going nowhere.  The few incentives they get are just pocketed straight up.  The team could not count on optimal contributions from unmotivated players.

The analogy also works with projects such as software development and others.  You have this world class developer working on a project.  Ownership has decided to sit on his bonus.  Big plans must be put on hold.  His young son must be pulled from the kids league, swim club, no Disneyland vacation etc.  And the problem is replicated across the team.

On the ground in Kenya, get rich quick schemes.  Youth employment initiatives, end up in basements of banks and sacks of cash exchanging hands.  The same entity that gave the country Huduma centers, is the same one giving Raila and kamwana the next Baghdad Boys and Mungiki for the next cycle.  It's not so much the money that is lost than the message that everybody gets that is the real problem; hard work does not pay.

I do.  In the same sense that a project needs a good project manager.  It's a big deal who leads a company.  For the same reason, it's a big deal who leads the country.  George W. Bush walked the US into a recession and huge deficit after inheriting a record surplus.

I agree in a country's case that the leadership is a reflection of the society.  That is really the biggest problem.  Even the most educated Kenyans, are for the most part not immune to the Raila/kamwana dichotomy; whether they are in teaching at the University of Chicago or Mount Kenya University. 

When Raila jumps on some new vehicle to mayhem, he can count on the best of society to be by his side; same with kamwana.  It is an egg/chicken kind of problem. 

No magic bullet.  But if you increase devolution, I feel like 47 units provide an opportunity for some outlier leadership to emerge.

[RV Pundit]

I disagree. US can survive G. Bush because it has layers of leadership that is solid. Our leadership quality is indeed a reflection of the state we are. I have seen a lot of improvement. Across board. You have seen nothing because you focus on the top dog. When I look, I see better Cattle Dip chairperson, I see better nursery school chairladies, I see better youth leaders, I see better tea factory director, I see better guys running rural farmers saccos, I see better calibre of Mps, I see better calibre of govenors. You see nothing because the top leadership we have are going to be here for another 40yrs. Your see darkness. I see hope. I see people in my village electing someone who can read and write as Cattle DIP chairperson as opposed to illiterate fool few years ago. I see in few years if we keep improving, our leadership, our governorship, our governances and all that will manifest. I see better leaders emerging in private sector. I see better managers emerging from public institutions. The same can be said of corruption.

In short you need to look deeper.

I do.  In the same sense that a project needs a good project manager.  It's a big deal who leads a company.  For the same reason, it's a big deal who leads the country.  George W. Bush walked the US into a recession and huge deficit after inheriting a record surplus.

I agree in a country's case that the leadership is a reflection of the society.  That is really the biggest problem.  Even the most educated Kenyans, are for the most part not immune to the Raila/kamwana dichotomy; whether they are in teaching at the University of Chicago or Mount Kenya University. 

When Raila jumps on some new vehicle to mayhem, he can count on the best of society to be by his side; same with kamwana.  It is an egg/chicken kind of problem. 

No magic bullet.  But if you increase devolution, I feel like 47 units provide an opportunity for some outlier leadership to emerge.

[Nefertiti]

It will take time indeed. Looking even at the number of leaders -- 4 presidents. 1st time governors, 5 - 10 year old parties. With time we will even grow past tribe into ideology -- Left, Right, Nationalist, Socialist, etc. Consider US has had 44 presidents, countless governors and mayors. Chinese Communist Party is 100+ years old.

I have seen World Bank and other sources project African economic growth to US$20Trillion+ by 2050. Do you buy into that?

Basic math disagrees with that prospect

$2.4T x (1 + 5%) ^ 35 years = $15 to $16T
 
15T for 1.5B folks is $10K per capita. Upper middle income. This is more realistic worst case scenario. Which is the current global gdp (GWP) per capita. Romania, Mexico living std.

The lofty World Bank 2050 projection of 29T gives us 20K per capita. Czech / Saudi Arabia falls close. We are talking nominal GDP. It's not likely we will ever be Europe... maybe Carribean or Latin America lifestyle.

[Nefertiti]

Any renaissance men in the house? Elon Musk (Paypal, Falcon) is an SA-born American... the brain-drain we suffer has real consequence.

Elon Musk is setting himself up for an epic failure
Matthew DeBord May 7, 2016, 1:17 PM 96,312 views 67 comments

http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-epic-failure-2016-5

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Any renaissance men in the house? Elon Musk (Paypal, Falcon) is an SA-born American... the brain-drain we suffer has real consequence.

Elon Musk is setting himself up for an epic failure
Matthew DeBord May 7, 2016, 1:17 PM 96,312 views 67 comments

http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-epic-failure-2016-5

Elon Musk is not so much brain drain as brain finding its level.   In South Africa would in all likelihood not have SpaceX or Tesla for that matter; too many pieces of the jigsaw puzzle missing in South Africa.

[Nefertiti]

Any renaissance men in the house? Elon Musk (Paypal, Falcon) is an SA-born American... the brain-drain we suffer has real consequence.

Elon Musk is setting himself up for an epic failure
Matthew DeBord May 7, 2016, 1:17 PM 96,312 views 67 comments

http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-epic-failure-2016-5

Elon Musk is not so much brain drain as brain finding its level.   In South Africa would in all likelihood not have SpaceX or Tesla for that matter; too many pieces of the jigsaw puzzle missing in South Africa.

Really? Nothing in the US is unique anymore in a globalized market. Not even venture capital. One of the issues at play in Tesla's ambitions is the high cost of living in the Silicon Valley hq. For Space X, lots of raw materials, knowhow and manpower had to be sourced from Russia.

Look at the outsourcing trends in Apple and other MNCs... Tesla may actually have to open plants in the Far East to double down on the cheap operating environment. What the US has is a business innovation culture... with requisite investments and economies of scale that make smart folks love it there, especially California. It's leveling out now I think.

When the brain-sucking ability wanes US will be in trouble. Still the robber barons would make it anywhere.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Any renaissance men in the house? Elon Musk (Paypal, Falcon) is an SA-born American... the brain-drain we suffer has real consequence.

Elon Musk is setting himself up for an epic failure
Matthew DeBord May 7, 2016, 1:17 PM 96,312 views 67 comments

http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-epic-failure-2016-5

Elon Musk is not so much brain drain as brain finding its level.   In South Africa would in all likelihood not have SpaceX or Tesla for that matter; too many pieces of the jigsaw puzzle missing in South Africa.

Really? Nothing in the US is unique anymore in a globalized market. Not even venture capital. One of the issues at play in Tesla's ambitions is the high cost of living in the Silicon Valley hq. For Space X, lots of raw materials, knowhow and manpower had to be sourced from Russia.

Look at the outsourcing trends in Apple and other MNCs... Tesla may actually have to open plants in the Far East to double down on the cheap operating environment. What the US has is a business innovation culture... with requisite investments and economies of scale that make smart folks love it there, especially California. It's leveling out now I think.

When the brain-sucking ability wanes US will be in trouble. Still the robber barons would make it anywhere.

You are putting words into my mouth indirectly.  I am saying Elon Musk leaving South Africa is not brain drain, because he could not achieve the same things in South Africa.  If he were a pediatrician who leaves South Africa and winds up treating American children instead of Zulu kids, that to me is brain drain.

But this guy left South Africa and he is creating the world's first reusable rocket boosters and Tesla; who seriously believes this is something he could have done in South Africa without some effort bordering on the miraculous?

I think the US has the pieces he needed to succeed in one convenient place.  Most other places would have bits and pieces, here and there.  Even, as you acknowledge, attracting the requisite foreign talent whenever it's needed, is just not as easy in other places.

[RV Pundit]

I disagree. You're making it appear that Elon Musk was always destined to launch rockets. If he was in RSA he might have invented something else.Maybe M-pesa that seem mundane for say US but is more apt for say Soweto. It still brain drain to me. US have the enviroment that is attracting those talents abroad and making them succeed. The challenge for other countries is to at very least attract these talents back to their country...to do something.

You are putting words into my mouth indirectly.  I am saying Elon Musk leaving South Africa is not brain drain, because he could not achieve the same things in South Africa.  If he were a pediatrician who leaves South Africa and winds up treating American children instead of Zulu kids, that to me is brain drain.

But this guy left South Africa and he is creating the world's first reusable rocket boosters and Tesla; who seriously believes this is something he could have done in South Africa without some effort bordering on the miraculous?

I think the US has the pieces he needed to succeed in one convenient place.  Most other places would have bits and pieces, here and there.  Even, as you acknowledge, attracting the requisite foreign talent whenever it's needed, is just not as easy in other places.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I disagree. You're making it appear that Elon Musk was always destined to launch rockets. If he was in RSA he might have invented something else.Maybe M-pesa that seem mundane for say US but is more apt for say Soweto. It still brain drain to me. US have the enviroment that is attracting those talents abroad and making them succeed. The challenge for other countries is to at very least attract these talents back to their country...to do something.

You are putting words into my mouth indirectly.  I am saying Elon Musk leaving South Africa is not brain drain, because he could not achieve the same things in South Africa.  If he were a pediatrician who leaves South Africa and winds up treating American children instead of Zulu kids, that to me is brain drain.

But this guy left South Africa and he is creating the world's first reusable rocket boosters and Tesla; who seriously believes this is something he could have done in South Africa without some effort bordering on the miraculous?

I think the US has the pieces he needed to succeed in one convenient place.  Most other places would have bits and pieces, here and there.  Even, as you acknowledge, attracting the requisite foreign talent whenever it's needed, is just not as easy in other places.

I guess we have different notions of brain drain.  To me, it's just the exit of know-how that is useful and needed(immediately) to the mother country. 

A particle physicist leaving Nairobi to go work on the Large Hadron collider in Europe would not count as brain drain in my opinion.  Admittedly this may not be the standard view of brain drain.

A medical doctor, leaving Nairobi to become a taxi driver(or even the same thing, a doctor) in New York is brain drain.  A doctor of theology leaving Kenya to go preach in Alaska is NOT brain drain.

In South Africa Elon had ideas that were bigger than his environment could handle.

[Nefertiti]

More positive indicators for. ke

POSTED 7 HOURS AGO
Kenya emerges among prosperous countries in Africa
 
By PAUL REDFERN

IN SUMMARY

• The report places Kenya in 11th place, with its highest ranking for personal freedom, entrepreneurship and opportunity.
  
• Rwanda received high marks for its economy and governance and is the most improved country in Africa over the past 10 years.
• Tanzania received a less favourable rating and is ranked the least improved country since 2009.
  

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-named-among-prosperous-countries/-/1950106/3227898/-/wpy16gz/-/index.html

A contrast to this Ndii narrative about. ke loosing regional shimmer to Tz:

By DAVID NDII

In Summary

• The desperate helter-skelter we have been treated to since losing the Uganda oil-pipeline project to Tanzania now confirms that Jubilee administration has become the victim of its own propaganda.
  
• Land has been grabbed all along the LAPPSET corridor and the speculators, who are of course powerful people, are waiting patiently to reap big time on compensation.

http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/-Enter-Magufuli-and-Kenyas-control-of-region-is-now-history/-/440808/3193422/-/ccossjz/-/index.html

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

More positive indicators for. ke

POSTED 7 HOURS AGO
Kenya emerges among prosperous countries in Africa
 
By PAUL REDFERN

IN SUMMARY

• The report places Kenya in 11th place, with its highest ranking for personal freedom, entrepreneurship and opportunity.
  
• Rwanda received high marks for its economy and governance and is the most improved country in Africa over the past 10 years.
• Tanzania received a less favourable rating and is ranked the least improved country since 2009.
  

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-named-among-prosperous-countries/-/1950106/3227898/-/wpy16gz/-/index.html

A contrast to this Ndii narrative about. ke loosing regional shimmer to Tz:

By DAVID NDII

In Summary

• The desperate helter-skelter we have been treated to since losing the Uganda oil-pipeline project to Tanzania now confirms that Jubilee administration has become the victim of its own propaganda.
  
• Land has been grabbed all along the LAPPSET corridor and the speculators, who are of course powerful people, are waiting patiently to reap big time on compensation.

http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/-Enter-Magufuli-and-Kenyas-control-of-region-is-now-history/-/440808/3193422/-/ccossjz/-/index.html

I don't see the two as contrasting.  Because Ndii is saying that Magufuli is tilting the balance in favor of Tz.  The other report covers a long period, about 7 years, of which Magufuli's stint is only a few months, and it says on that basis that Kenya is ahead of Tz.

That said, I think we make too much of these differences in what is really one economic zone with artificial boundaries left by departing wabeberus, to what end it is not clear.[/list][/list]

[RV Pundit]

Dr Doom Ndii now release his suber-bitter bile on WB & IMF with lots of damn lies.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/IMF-and-World-Bank-telling-a-big-fat-lie-that-will-burst/-/440808/3231514/-/mw58p6z/-/index.html

[hk]

Dr Doom Ndii now release his suber-bitter bile on WB & IMF with lots of damn lies.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/IMF-and-World-Bank-telling-a-big-fat-lie-that-will-burst/-/440808/3231514/-/mw58p6z/-/index.html

The $750m that kenya took out wasn't even used. Meaning there was no need for it as there was no external shock for it to be needed. This insurance policy is what has offered stability to the kenya shilling. Doubling it down means even a bigger extra cushion incase of external shocks e.g the oil market heating $80. And the 3% deficit requirement only applies if  kenya access the funds. Which most likely it wont http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/imf-agrees-to-lend-kenya-1-5-billion-in-precautionary-funds .

[RV Pundit]

Obviously he knows that--that facility exist but treasury has not needed it so far. Ndii has lost all credibility in his attempt to invent EuroBond scandal. Obviously Kenya after rebasing it economy and having a stellar re-payment record is going to qualify for bigger WB/IMF pie.

The $750m that kenya took out wasn't even used. Meaning there was no need for it as there was no external shock for it to be needed. This insurance policy is what has offered stability to the kenya shilling. Doubling it down means even a bigger extra cushion incase of external shocks e.g the oil market heating $80. And the 3% deficit requirement only applies if  kenya access the funds. Which most likely it wont http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/imf-agrees-to-lend-kenya-1-5-billion-in-precautionary-funds .