Ida Odinga Vs Oburu Odinga?What is the end game?

[Githunguri]

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I stand to be corrected.It seems we have a battle inside the Odinga family and the larger ODM fraternity.

1) CAMP A: Ida odinga,winnie,babu,sifuna,orengo,Wandai,Mbadi.

2) CAMP B: Oburu,Wanga,Junet,I think Kaluma.

3) CAMP C:The coastal grouping of Joho & Nasser which is watching the Odinga family fallout.They threatened to form their own party but they seem kinda lost depending on how dholuo politics play out.

CAMP A wants to support Ruto while CAMP B wants to support Kalonzo in 2027.

Oburu has told Ida to bring it on.Now,Oburu with Ruto support will have enough money and security during the ODM National delegates conference.It will be chaos.

Whom will the dholuo people obey?Oburu or Ida.

If IDA camp A is defeated,Will they quit ODM and form a new party?What will Kalonzo give them.

Interesting days ahead.

[Modesty Blaise]

Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.

I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.

Reads like ODM obituary.

[Githunguri]

Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.

I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.

Reads like ODM obituary.

Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.

Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?

Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?

Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?

[Modesty Blaise]

Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.

I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.

Reads like ODM obituary.

Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.

Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?

Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?

Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.

Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?

In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.

RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored. 

Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.

[Githunguri]

Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.

I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.

Reads like ODM obituary.

Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.

Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?

Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?

Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.

Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?

In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.

RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored. 

Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.

Kalonzo must strategize to win Luo vote.We should consider giving Winnie Odinga running mate position.Sifuna can win Nairobi and become senate speaker or majority leader,GEMA should be given Nairobi governor,Babu can be made FINANCE CS.The goal is defeat Ruto by whatever means necessary.With Winnie Odinga as Kalonzo running mate,I don't see how Luos will not vote Kalonzo.

Gachagua should mentor Methu and Ndindi,Give them plum positions.Ndindi needs to stop being Kigeugeu.

[Modesty Blaise]

Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.

In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.

RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored. 

Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.

Kalonzo must strategize to win Luo vote.We should consider giving Winnie Odinga running mate position.Sifuna can win Nairobi and become senate speaker or majority leader,GEMA should be given Nairobi governor,Babu can be made FINANCE CS.The goal is defeat Ruto by whatever means necessary.With Winnie Odinga as Kalonzo running mate,I don't see how Luos will not vote Kalonzo.

Gachagua should mentor Methu and Ndindi,Give them plum positions.Ndindi needs to stop being Kigeugeu.

Top 3 slots are already shared... it is why there is "unity" while Pundit and Njuri Ncheke pray for a fallout.
Sifuna and Owino Babu are likely to get Nairobi senator and governor. Their big problem is party once they are kicked out of ODM.

Luo are already cracked despite Ruto giving them 3 CS... slighting Luhya to reward them would be silly.

[Nowayhaha]

ODM died in 2007 after trying to rig and still losing to Kibaki
In 2013 they became CORD , in 2017 NASA and 2022 Azimio.
ODM is where KANU was after Moi left power . Maximum Mps who will be elected on ODM will be around 10 if they Join Ruto around 30 if they run alone .
Oburu , Ida , old generation and some tumbocrats are after Rutos money . New generation politicians Babu Sifuna are after they political future while the likes of Orengo after legacy . Same thing with KANU after exit from power and FORD Kenya after demise of Kijana Wamalwa.
There will be new parties like New ODM or ODM Kenya (Not Wiper) . Ruto will fight tooth and nail to finish ODM like he did In 2008 and also did with Jubilee in 2022

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

ODM's future after the death of Raila remains bleak, just like DCP. UDA will rule the country for the next decade or so! Today's well-organised party elections was the most sought after by thousands of candidates

[RV Pundit]

Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.

Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.

Sifuna will get support of Gachagua

[Modesty Blaise]

They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.

Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.

Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.

Sifuna will get support of Gachagua

[Modesty Blaise]

Ida Odinga azuia kuondolewa kwa Katibu Mkuu wa ODM

[Githunguri]

Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.

Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.

Sifuna will get support of Gachagua

Correct.

What should babu do?

[Modesty Blaise]

Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.

Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.

Sifuna will get support of Gachagua

Correct.

What should babu do?

Babu Owino would be silly to accept CS promisory note without hedging. He has outgrown MP.
You say Kalonzo needs Luo strategy - and that may include giving up Nairobi governor.

Kalonzo and RiggyG lose more than Babu Owino if Ruto wins.

[RV Pundit]

Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)

Gachagua is not stupid.

They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.

[RV Pundit]

Political reality - Babu 'non-tribal' support will evaporate - Kikuyus badly desperately need Nairobi - now that PORK and DPORK are out.
Nairobi is BIG COUNTY.
If I was Babu - I would do 50-50 MOU with Sakaja - and become Deputy governor - for 5yrs - 2027 run and win.
Even if Babu wins - Ruto will not work with him - so he just need to understand it tough for him.

If he follows opposition - he will be offered Deputy of DCP - and Sakaja will offer Odinga family (likely Winnie) the Deputy.

Political reality - Nairobi politics - there is loose alliance in every const btw Kavirondo (Luo, Luhya, gusii) - against Mt kenya.

For Babu to break such alliance it TOUGH - because MCAs need it, Mps need it, name it - so he will be kicked out very FAST by KAVIRONDO URBAN MAFIA from slums all the way up

Correct.

What should babu do?

[Modesty Blaise]

RiggyG will do the math.

If he gets ghost PM and some CS slots under Kalonzo - it is worth nothing if Ruto wins.
If Babu Owino can deliver significant Luo - RiggyG can cut him Nairobi governor.

Sifuna & Babu Owino are BIG SCOOP for opposition. Not just direct votes but optics. To stop Ruto from bagging whole ODM.
Basically takes the sail from Ruto - by taking the progressive faction.

Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)

Gachagua is not stupid.

They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.

[Modesty Blaise]

Nairobi county is big but not worth PORK.
Gema + Kamba easily beat Kavirondo alliance.

The power is with RiggyG and Kalonzo. Not Ruto and Sakaja.
If they offer Babu Owino governor he will heartlessly abandon Sakaja and ODM.

Political reality - Babu 'non-tribal' support will evaporate - Kikuyus badly desperately need Nairobi - now that PORK and DPORK are out.
Nairobi is BIG COUNTY.
If I was Babu - I would do 50-50 MOU with Sakaja - and become Deputy governor - for 5yrs - 2027 run and win.
Even if Babu wins - Ruto will not work with him - so he just need to understand it tough for him.

If he follows opposition - he will be offered Deputy of DCP - and Sakaja will offer Odinga family (likely Winnie) the Deputy.

Political reality - Nairobi politics - there is loose alliance in every const btw Kavirondo (Luo, Luhya, gusii) - against Mt kenya.

For Babu to break such alliance it TOUGH - because MCAs need it, Mps need it, name it - so he will be kicked out very FAST by KAVIRONDO URBAN MAFIA from slums all the way up

Correct.

What should babu do?

[Modesty Blaise]

Muranga - don't be surprised if Kang'ata run on DCP. For dog-fight with CDF rock-star Ndindi.

Ditto Kiambu. DCP is sure bet - it UDA which is questionable.

Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)

Gachagua is not stupid.

They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.

[RV Pundit]

Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.

Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.

Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much

Maajabu. I dont believe it.

[Nowayhaha]

They said the same thing in 2022 about Ruto , and Ruto was overwhelmingly voted for .
Fact which you know is that Ruto blundered about Gachagua you even talked of how you admired him.
Rutos mistakes cost him and unfortunately he keeps on making mistake after mistake .
Just like Raila the mistakes will make him lose Presidency in 2027 . There is no way about it .
He already knows in 2002 he was one of the few who told Moi KANU will lose because of Raila and FYI he never forgave Raila for that.He is not forgiving .

Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.

Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.

Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much

Maajabu. I dont believe it.