Raila dilemma. Uhuru offer re run. Ruto working on joint coalition

[RV Pundit]

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Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

[Nefertiti]

In short Ruto is losing Raila and has failed to bag Kalonzo.

We are up for 3-horse race.

[Nefertiti]

Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

Naturally you now claim Uhuru is washed up and without Gema - cause he is against Ruto. 

If he backs Ruto you will praise him as eternal Gema prince.

The reality is he has hard money and network but no ground game. No synergy with Ruto - but lots of synergy with Raila and anti-Ruto groups.
He can help Raila to beat Ruto in NFD - Isiolo and such - where Jubilee landed most of its MPs. He can reduce ODM haemorrhage there.

[Nefertiti]

Support for Raila is conditional on Raila dumping Ruto

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee NEC made it clear they oppose Ruto's re-election as president. If you listen to kioni they blame Ruto for the squabbles in Jubilee.

The 411 is that Matiang'i is committed to the united opposition and will not vie under Jubilee.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In the meantime the 3 million bodaboda folks and their families vow to deliver all their votes en masse for the work the government has done for them. Their SHA dues are paid, interest rates on their Bike notes are paid, and most are to be approved on an ongoing basis for affordable Housing in their counties. Competing with WSR in 2027 is like cutting your neck with Halal Knife!

[Nefertiti]

RHH those billiboard materials. If Ruto had to keep GenZ away from Kasarani for CHAN match - he was afraid they would shout #Wantam.

Imagine that: a vetted football audience.

PR works until it doesn't.

[RV Pundit]

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

Naturally you now claim Uhuru is washed up and without Gema - cause he is against Ruto. 

If he backs Ruto you will praise him as eternal Gema prince.

The reality is he has hard money and network but no ground game. No synergy with Ruto - but lots of synergy with Raila and anti-Ruto groups.
He can help Raila to beat Ruto in NFD - Isiolo and such - where Jubilee landed most of its MPs. He can reduce ODM haemorrhage there.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Raila-Gachagua loading  Because Raila-Karua, or Raila-Kalonzo, will be another spent cartridge!
Uhuru is pushing Raila-Muhoho, with Raila handing over to Muhoho after 1 term. Raila has big decision to make, but count him to make disastrous decision!

[RV Pundit]

Yes likely Raila - Muhoho. The problem of course Kalonzo will throw a wrencher. Rigathi will accept billions to support Raila-Muhoho. He knows is fatally wounded by impeachment.

Raila-Gachagua loading  Because Raila-Karua, or Raila-Kalonzo, will be another spent cartridge!
Uhuru is pushing Raila-Muhoho, with Raila handing over to Muhoho after 1 term. Raila has big decision to make, but count him to make disastrous decision!

[RV Pundit]

Raila seem to have for now rejected Uhuru and gone full steam with Ruto. Look like 50-50 btw UDA and ODM loading

[Fairandbalanced]

All going home, the silent majority do not care about these moves, we are ushering a new Kenya.. https://x.com/kibet_bull/status/1954094555961168344?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA
https://x.com/_dcptv/status/1953761771178639671?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In the meantime, Ruto and the World Bank are providing 70 vetted young sober men with 50,000 shillings each across 1,450 constituencies as part of a test run [that is, 101,500 Gen Z]. In early 2027, the programme may be scaled to include 1000 men, who will receive instructions to recruit and bring in 2-3 people as a support team for business ventures. [If 2 are brought as support, it will be almost 3 million Gen Z empowered.]
In brief, money talks bullshit walks!
The government under Ruto is planning to ensure by the end of 2027, about 5-7 million people will be empowered in one way or another by providing access to capital, business tools, training, and so much more. It will be a difficult task convincing almost 5+ million people to vote against the same Government that empowers them. Today Nairobi Gen Z got the first batch of empowerment. Ruto is sorting out those at the bottom. Widows, folks from broken families, kids with discipline but no parents, reformed people, etc.
Nairobi Gen Z will slowly be TUTAM





 

[Nefertiti]

1. When did Ruto move from 36 to 40%? You plastered the MOAS here a few days ago. There has been nothing but turbulence in Team Ruto - or did I miss the news?

2. GEMA contribution to Ruto was 47% - which is 23% of national. Details matter.

3. Nothing has changed - Raila is prepping for 6th stab; Kalonzo has rejected Ruto's running-mate offer. We are onto 3-horse race. Run MOAS for that.

Now - RiggyG is not backing Raila - that is Uhuru alone and his Jubilee one-man guitar. I think he can help Raila with money and some limited NFD areas like Isiolo. That's it. Remember headless chicken Jubilee already offered Matiang'i PORK ticket - in absentia  - but Matiang'i has not accepted cause he can see it is a roadmap to nowhere. Matiang'i seems more excited by RiggyG group. Imagine Uhuru fat-baby Matiang'i is with RiggyG... they had a meeting here in Philly while Uhuru was doing NEC - that tells you where the currency is. Nobody really cares about Uhuru except RV Pundit who thinks it will weaken Team RiggyG.

What happended to Matiang'i-Muhoho in your new calculations? Have you ever SEEN Muhoho? Is he short or tall? Does he speak fluent Kikuyu?

I know you want fatso Uhuru to be strong and almighty to weaken RiggyG but I don't see it. That 80% Gema Ruto got - they held day & night-long meetings and near-unanimously voted for Soprano - and Ruto still went with RiggyG. Moto ya kuotea mbali.

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

[Nefertiti]

To close 14% gap - Ruto needs more than a bridge and the river to sell. With Gema, Kamba gone.  That akin to Kibaki running-mate headache after NARC fallout.

Raila will run not to win but because his power lies in ODM numbers. Not MOU which are utterly worthless. I mean after all Kanu-NDP, NARC, NARA, Jubilee - now UDA DPORK was fired - which fool would trust piece of paper much less Raila? I see Sifuna tantrums threatening to walk - and Oburu saying they will back Ruto upto 2027. Those  victim compensation or NADCO team are dominated by Raila groupies like Prof Makau. Desperate Ruto is stretched thin managing Raila.

Luhya wars will be brutal in 3-horse scenario. Ruto may have to run with Joho or Mvurya. Leave Mdvd-Rectangular as PM/speaker.

RiggyG is running G7 - which make even featherweight Eugene claim he has a shot at PORK. Riggy inelligibility makes his crew very united.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

[RV Pundit]

1) 36% was worse case scenario - 40% is realistic scenario.
2) 23% - yet almost 20% voted for Azimio (nearly 1 million votes) - that would make GEMA what 30% of our votes - at best they were 24-25%. Work with 25% times 80% = 20%.
3) Raila will not run unless he is winning. He aint leaving 50% of GOK including energy and finance - for kamikaze run. He will only run if Azimio regroup plus Gachagua and make him candidate. Chance of that happening is low.
4) Kalonzo must run or become Ruto deputy. Maybe he can be Raila deputy if Raila will die soon otherwise at 74yrs - he only has 5yrs.
5) You're overrating riggyg - first he wont fly outside Nyeri-embu runaway - secondly he is impeached and wont run and be appointed - kikuyus will not bank on such person - hasira itaisha - and they are sobering up - and may realize it better to stick with Kindiki. Ruto has lots of UDA latent support bado.
6) Dont write off Uhuru - Jubilee will attract those who dont like RIggyG or Ruto - and they are many. Esp in Kiambu-Nakuru part.

1. When did Ruto move from 36 to 40%? You plastered the MOAS here a few days ago. There has been nothing but turbulence in Team Ruto - or did I miss the news?

2. GEMA contribution to Ruto was 47% - which is 23% of national. Details matter.

3. Nothing has changed - Raila is prepping for 6th stab; Kalonzo has rejected Ruto's running-mate offer. We are onto 3-horse race. Run MOAS for that.

Now - RiggyG is not backing Raila - that is Uhuru alone and his Jubilee one-man guitar. I think he can help Raila with money and some limited NFD areas like Isiolo. That's it. Remember headless chicken Jubilee already offered Matiang'i PORK ticket - in absentia  - but Matiang'i has not accepted cause he can see it is a roadmap to nowhere. Matiang'i seems more excited by RiggyG group. Imagine Uhuru fat-baby Matiang'i is with RiggyG... they had a meeting here in Philly while Uhuru was doing NEC - that tells you where the currency is. Nobody really cares about Uhuru except RV Pundit who thinks it will weaken Team RiggyG.

What happended to Matiang'i-Muhoho in your new calculations? Have you ever SEEN Muhoho? Is he short or tall? Does he speak fluent Kikuyu?

I know you want fatso Uhuru to be strong and almighty to weaken RiggyG but I don't see it. That 80% Gema Ruto got - they held day & night-long meetings and near-unanimously voted for Soprano - and Ruto still went with RiggyG. Moto ya kuotea mbali.

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

[Nefertiti]

RiggyG is not supporting Raila

Gachagua calls for ouster of both Raila and Ruto

Yes likely Raila - Muhoho. The problem of course Kalonzo will throw a wrencher. Rigathi will accept billions to support Raila-Muhoho. He knows is fatally wounded by impeachment.

[Nefertiti]

1) 36% was worse case scenario - 40% is realistic scenario.

Nope. 36% is the realistic scenario or base case. We are most likely to have a 3-horse race.

a. For one, logically Raila will definitely bolt by late 2026. He needs ODM numbers to continue nusu mkate kalongolongo after 2027.
b. Second Raila disciples and groupies need ODM to win down-ballot elections so a coalition that lets in competitors will be vehemently opposed.

Best case is Ruto-Raila pre-election deal - not likely because of above a and b above and the terrible history of MOUs and betrayal in Kenyan politics. But where do you get 40% if Ruto alone is 36%? I have not seen your MOAS for this scenario.

Worst-case is Raila-Kalonzo backed by all of GEMA. This is unlikely because Uhuru and RiggyG have divergent interests: Uhuru Jubilee is offering Raila support - RiggyG is seeking to dethrone Raila as opposition kingpin.

You are smart enough not to confuse the apparent from the real. But you are being disingenuous.

2) 23% - yet almost 20% voted for Azimio (nearly 1 million votes) - that would make GEMA what 30% of our votes - at best they were 24-25%. Work with 25% times 80% = 20%.

Okay.

3) Raila will not run unless he is winning. He aint leaving 50% of GOK including energy and finance - for kamikaze run. He will only run if Azimio regroup plus Gachagua and make him candidate. Chance of that happening is low.

Raila MUST run to maintain ODM bargaining chip. Running is 2027 not now - perhaps start late 2026. That gives him at least 1 more year of eating.
Ruto cannot fire him right now and is bending over backwards with Profs Makau and Oloo chairing ad hoc Nadco or victim committees. These committees are ad hoc (by mere executive order not backed by any law) so Ruto can dismantle them later when it suits him. 

Ruto-Wanga Kenya Mpya ticket won't float. ODM would go burst as we see the squabbles already.

4) Kalonzo must run or become Ruto deputy. Maybe he can be Raila deputy if Raila will die soon otherwise at 74yrs - he only has 5yrs.

Kalonzo is firmly in Team RiggyG - this is typical katikati hyena behavior - cause RiggyG is not elligible. Why would Kalonzo leave clear PORK shot to back Ruto? His open rejection of Ruto offer indicates there is no 411 or whiff of RiggyG backing Raila. The man is a hyena and visionless but has a few functional gray cells. His twitter handle is probably still "Stephen Kariuki Musyoka".  Cut him some slack.

5) You're overrating riggyg - first he wont fly outside Nyeri-embu runaway - secondly he is impeached and wont run and be appointed - kikuyus will not bank on such person - hasira itaisha - and they are sobering up - and may realize it better to stick with Kindiki. Ruto has lots of UDA latent support bado.

I am objective. RiggyG is inelligible has pros & cons 

Pros - this makes Kalonzo, Matiang'i, Eugene, etc stick to him like glue.
There is a free PORK and DPORK slots open with Gema support. Only a fool would leave this chance. Forget Kalonzo joining Ruto.

Cons - makes it harder for RiggyG to nail Gema.
Soprano should be running this narrative but he is obviously impotent fool. Ndindi Nyoro can run and say look, there is no other Gema running. But RiggyG A game is ahead of them so far. He has poisoned Gema with lethal Black Mamba anti-Ruto venom. In Meru he is more Meru than Soprano. Now he is saying he has left Mt Kenya in JB Muturi custody - propping him - cause of Mbeere byeleciton. He claims new parties popping up are Ruto-sponsored - this is aimed at Moses Kuria and Ndindi. Such adroit jujitsu was only run by Ruto before.

In any lineup say Kalonzo-Eugene - RiggyG will be given PM and 50% slice. kenyans voted for ICC indictees and they are no smarter today than then. Politics is all about spin and narrative.

I don't see it but let us see if Soprano, Ndindi and Kiunjuri can manage to gain clout. Ichung'wa is already deadwood.
Ruto UDM/URP faced so many problems and vicious battles with all Biwotts and Kosgeys and Ole Kamwaros - I don't see why you think RiggyG is any worse off.

6) Dont write off Uhuru - Jubilee will attract those who dont like RIggyG or Ruto - and they are many. Esp in Kiambu-Nakuru part.

Events will tell us soon.
My own opinion - fatso Uhuru lost the kingpin mantle to RiggyG in 2022. RiggyG deftly moved the cheese to Ruto - and now has all but taken it back. This is akin to Ruto-Kalenjin 2007-2013 where Ruto moved Kalenjin to Raila to TKO Moi - then back to himself. RiggyG vs Uhuru is no different from Ruto vs Moi. MIA Muhoho is much more pitiable than useless Gideon.

Wake me up when Raila-Muhoho is handed to Ekethon. What make it better than Raila-Karua?

[RV Pundit]

Robina, all I can say, let's wait n see. Raila will be 83yrs. Kalonzo 75yrs. Rigathi impeached n ineligible. Uhuru can't run. That is opposition Ruto faces

[Nefertiti]

I keep telling you RiggyG is the brain and muscle behind the united opposition


The state of opposition without Gachagua

United opposition made a feeble attempt to keep the fire burning in his absence.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/the-state-of-opposition-without-gachagua-5155086