Raila dilemma. Uhuru offer re run. Ruto working on joint coalition

[RV Pundit]

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Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

[Nefertiti]

In short Ruto is losing Raila and has failed to bag Kalonzo.

We are up for 3-horse race.

[Nefertiti]

Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

Naturally you now claim Uhuru is washed up and without Gema - cause he is against Ruto. 

If he backs Ruto you will praise him as eternal Gema prince.

The reality is he has hard money and network but no ground game. No synergy with Ruto - but lots of synergy with Raila and anti-Ruto groups.
He can help Raila to beat Ruto in NFD - Isiolo and such - where Jubilee landed most of its MPs. He can reduce ODM haemorrhage there.

[Nefertiti]

Support for Raila is conditional on Raila dumping Ruto

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee NEC made it clear they oppose Ruto's re-election as president. If you listen to kioni they blame Ruto for the squabbles in Jubilee.

The 411 is that Matiang'i is committed to the united opposition and will not vie under Jubilee.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In the meantime the 3 million bodaboda folks and their families vow to deliver all their votes en masse for the work the government has done for them. Their SHA dues are paid, interest rates on their Bike notes are paid, and most are to be approved on an ongoing basis for affordable Housing in their counties. Competing with WSR in 2027 is like cutting your neck with Halal Knife!

[Nefertiti]

RHH those billiboard materials. If Ruto had to keep GenZ away from Kasarani for CHAN match - he was afraid they would shout #Wantam.

Imagine that: a vetted football audience.

PR works until it doesn't.

[RV Pundit]

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

Where will Raila finally end. Rerun led by washed up uhuru without gema , deep state n systems...but Ruto at best gives you deputy. Tough decisions. Orengo sick

Naturally you now claim Uhuru is washed up and without Gema - cause he is against Ruto. 

If he backs Ruto you will praise him as eternal Gema prince.

The reality is he has hard money and network but no ground game. No synergy with Ruto - but lots of synergy with Raila and anti-Ruto groups.
He can help Raila to beat Ruto in NFD - Isiolo and such - where Jubilee landed most of its MPs. He can reduce ODM haemorrhage there.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Raila-Gachagua loading  Because Raila-Karua, or Raila-Kalonzo, will be another spent cartridge!
Uhuru is pushing Raila-Muhoho, with Raila handing over to Muhoho after 1 term. Raila has big decision to make, but count him to make disastrous decision!

[RV Pundit]

Yes likely Raila - Muhoho. The problem of course Kalonzo will throw a wrencher. Rigathi will accept billions to support Raila-Muhoho. He knows is fatally wounded by impeachment.

Raila-Gachagua loading  Because Raila-Karua, or Raila-Kalonzo, will be another spent cartridge!
Uhuru is pushing Raila-Muhoho, with Raila handing over to Muhoho after 1 term. Raila has big decision to make, but count him to make disastrous decision!

[RV Pundit]

Raila seem to have for now rejected Uhuru and gone full steam with Ruto. Look like 50-50 btw UDA and ODM loading

[Fairandbalanced]

All going home, the silent majority do not care about these moves, we are ushering a new Kenya.. https://x.com/kibet_bull/status/1954094555961168344?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA
https://x.com/_dcptv/status/1953761771178639671?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

In the meantime, Ruto and the World Bank are providing 70 vetted young sober men with 50,000 shillings each across 1,450 constituencies as part of a test run [that is, 101,500 Gen Z]. In early 2027, the programme may be scaled to include 1000 men, who will receive instructions to recruit and bring in 2-3 people as a support team for business ventures. [If 2 are brought as support, it will be almost 3 million Gen Z empowered.]
In brief, money talks bullshit walks!
The government under Ruto is planning to ensure by the end of 2027, about 5-7 million people will be empowered in one way or another by providing access to capital, business tools, training, and so much more. It will be a difficult task convincing almost 5+ million people to vote against the same Government that empowers them. Today Nairobi Gen Z got the first batch of empowerment. Ruto is sorting out those at the bottom. Widows, folks from broken families, kids with discipline but no parents, reformed people, etc.
Nairobi Gen Z will slowly be TUTAM





 

[Nefertiti]

1. When did Ruto move from 36 to 40%? You plastered the MOAS here a few days ago. There has been nothing but turbulence in Team Ruto - or did I miss the news?

2. GEMA contribution to Ruto was 47% - which is 23% of national. Details matter.

3. Nothing has changed - Raila is prepping for 6th stab; Kalonzo has rejected Ruto's running-mate offer. We are onto 3-horse race. Run MOAS for that.

Now - RiggyG is not backing Raila - that is Uhuru alone and his Jubilee one-man guitar. I think he can help Raila with money and some limited NFD areas like Isiolo. That's it. Remember headless chicken Jubilee already offered Matiang'i PORK ticket - in absentia  - but Matiang'i has not accepted cause he can see it is a roadmap to nowhere. Matiang'i seems more excited by RiggyG group. Imagine Uhuru fat-baby Matiang'i is with RiggyG... they had a meeting here in Philly while Uhuru was doing NEC - that tells you where the currency is. Nobody really cares about Uhuru except RV Pundit who thinks it will weaken Team RiggyG.

What happended to Matiang'i-Muhoho in your new calculations? Have you ever SEEN Muhoho? Is he short or tall? Does he speak fluent Kikuyu?

I know you want fatso Uhuru to be strong and almighty to weaken RiggyG but I don't see it. That 80% Gema Ruto got - they held day & night-long meetings and near-unanimously voted for Soprano - and Ruto still went with RiggyG. Moto ya kuotea mbali.

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

[Nefertiti]

To close 14% gap - Ruto needs more than a bridge and the river to sell. With Gema, Kamba gone.  That akin to Kibaki running-mate headache after NARC fallout.

Raila will run not to win but because his power lies in ODM numbers. Not MOU which are utterly worthless. I mean after all Kanu-NDP, NARC, NARA, Jubilee - now UDA DPORK was fired - which fool would trust piece of paper much less Raila? I see Sifuna tantrums threatening to walk - and Oburu saying they will back Ruto upto 2027. Those  victim compensation or NADCO team are dominated by Raila groupies like Prof Makau. Desperate Ruto is stretched thin managing Raila.

Luhya wars will be brutal in 3-horse scenario. Ruto may have to run with Joho or Mvurya. Leave Mdvd-Rectangular as PM/speaker.

RiggyG is running G7 - which make even featherweight Eugene claim he has a shot at PORK. Riggy inelligibility makes his crew very united.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.

[RV Pundit]

1) 36% was worse case scenario - 40% is realistic scenario.
2) 23% - yet almost 20% voted for Azimio (nearly 1 million votes) - that would make GEMA what 30% of our votes - at best they were 24-25%. Work with 25% times 80% = 20%.
3) Raila will not run unless he is winning. He aint leaving 50% of GOK including energy and finance - for kamikaze run. He will only run if Azimio regroup plus Gachagua and make him candidate. Chance of that happening is low.
4) Kalonzo must run or become Ruto deputy. Maybe he can be Raila deputy if Raila will die soon otherwise at 74yrs - he only has 5yrs.
5) You're overrating riggyg - first he wont fly outside Nyeri-embu runaway - secondly he is impeached and wont run and be appointed - kikuyus will not bank on such person - hasira itaisha - and they are sobering up - and may realize it better to stick with Kindiki. Ruto has lots of UDA latent support bado.
6) Dont write off Uhuru - Jubilee will attract those who dont like RIggyG or Ruto - and they are many. Esp in Kiambu-Nakuru part.

1. When did Ruto move from 36 to 40%? You plastered the MOAS here a few days ago. There has been nothing but turbulence in Team Ruto - or did I miss the news?

2. GEMA contribution to Ruto was 47% - which is 23% of national. Details matter.

3. Nothing has changed - Raila is prepping for 6th stab; Kalonzo has rejected Ruto's running-mate offer. We are onto 3-horse race. Run MOAS for that.

Now - RiggyG is not backing Raila - that is Uhuru alone and his Jubilee one-man guitar. I think he can help Raila with money and some limited NFD areas like Isiolo. That's it. Remember headless chicken Jubilee already offered Matiang'i PORK ticket - in absentia  - but Matiang'i has not accepted cause he can see it is a roadmap to nowhere. Matiang'i seems more excited by RiggyG group. Imagine Uhuru fat-baby Matiang'i is with RiggyG... they had a meeting here in Philly while Uhuru was doing NEC - that tells you where the currency is. Nobody really cares about Uhuru except RV Pundit who thinks it will weaken Team RiggyG.

What happended to Matiang'i-Muhoho in your new calculations? Have you ever SEEN Muhoho? Is he short or tall? Does he speak fluent Kikuyu?

I know you want fatso Uhuru to be strong and almighty to weaken RiggyG but I don't see it. That 80% Gema Ruto got - they held day & night-long meetings and near-unanimously voted for Soprano - and Ruto still went with RiggyG. Moto ya kuotea mbali.

I am objective.
Raila will give Ruto a run for his money no doubt.
But he will lose.
And Raila knows that. Luos know it.
Uhuru/Gachagua need to deliver votes to Kisumu before any agreement.
Then they also need to allow Kalonzo to be deputy.
Or Kalonzo bolt out.

Ruto I keep telling you got 80% of Mt kenya - which nationally was 20% of his 50%.

That is Ruto gap - he has closed almost 10% now.

Kindiki either deliver 10% - or a Kalonzo 10% - or Luhya 10% - remember Raila beat Ruto in Luhyland except in Bungoma.

Ruto-MaDVD would deliver Luhyas wote?

Again Ruto just need 10% now - he is comfortably at 40%.