Mearsheimer... have you bothered to watch his analysis?
Simple: US big threat is China,
not Russia, so Ukraine and Israel-Gaza should be parked for later asap. It is why Afghanistan was abandoned so heartlessly. This is Trump logic if you listen past the bluster. Here of course Dems vs GOP differ - but if you see how narrowly Ukraine aid survived in the House - and the loong delay - tells you Trump-led GOP would abandon Ukraine. EU is divided and without US they cannot contain Russia.
On the ground. NATO is not as powerful as yore and Russia has BEAT the sanctions. China is supplying Russia despite the denials. Xi is very happy to hold the US down in Ukraine and Gaza.
I am sober as ever. No, NATO is not a country. Either: slog it out with Russia for years (Biden). Or abandon Ukraine (Trump). Pick your poison.
Why would NATO - let even assume Trump wins - abandon Ukraine - when its doing Lord Work on RUssia - for nothing - more than donated weaponry?
Make it make sense.
Like Ruto - Zelenkesy has found himself a sweatspot to be indispensable. NATO uses Ukraine. Ukraine use NAT0. WIN-WIN STRATEGY. Ruto is doing the same - proposing what NATO cant run away from.
NATO are not supporting Ukrainian cause - they are fighting their own proxy wars with Russia.
Normally they spend billions preparing for this - but here comes Ukranians saying - give us very little and we make your life easy.
Be sober when doing analysis.