Ruto will have it tougher than it was in the last poll. The fact that Raila won't contest is a good pull factor for opposition folks to hang around him. Mind you Raila is dangerous when playing attacking midfielder/kingmaker role. Ask KibaKi in 2005 and Moi in 2002. Don't rule out Uhuru Kenyatta. He brought nearly 820k mt. kenya votes to Raila's basket. Something that was unimaginable before.
My take. Pair Kalonzo-Oparanya, throw something to Matiangi in Kisii, Joho at the coast, Oledima, Jeremiah, and of course Karua can be promised speaker of either house. Then you have a MUD FIGHT.