Pundit
The problem with Kalonzo is TRUST. Many people I meet simply don't trust him. They think he is likely to betray them. They look at his less than enthusiastic involvement in matters CORD and recoil. The same goes for Wetangula. His role in the 2007 theft of election and his being rewarded with foreign affairs and given a free hand to steal has been slow in going away. If Eunice had not made it so obvious that he was Uhuru's mistress, Wetangula was going to have a very hard time in Bungoma.
That said, do not underestimate Raila. He has a few things to do. If he listen to Masinde here he would win. He first has to distance himself from his close Luo advisers (he can consult them at night). The he has to bring "outsiders" close. He should learn one simple lesson and that Consultation before concession. That has been his waterloo. He lost Ruto when he conceded to Kibaki on ministries thus reducing the rewards he could given his own supporters; He had earlier stopped his team from demanding the Presidency be either given to him or be shared with him going first. He then started his own talks parallel to the ones in plenum thus undermining his own team. Above all, he should never do anything without asking his constituency. That is the disease he shares with MaDVD. You can see how failure to consult has ruined MaDVD. Supporters get the idea they are doing all the work so you can make deals at their expense.
Still it is going to be tough. Kalonzo is anxious to be President. I am afraid MaDVD is on his way back to ODM or CORD and his presence usually causes Raila to stop thinking properly.