What is real time information
Is that why you have 5000 reputation points and I have 1.7M!
What you do is postmortem analysis; that anyone can do; current affairs analysis; what on the news that day.
You cant even do past analysis because you have very short memory
Leave alone trying to predict what future holds.
GEMA united in 1997 - Moi won. Ngilu got very few votes in Kiambu
Kibaki improved from 17% to 36% - won some votes in Gusii & Ukambani - but still lost.
Moi improved to 40% and still won.
Dont sell lies. United GEMA right now is trending towards 25%.
CANNOT WIN anything on their own.
Not in this post 2010 constitution.
Not previously
To win and govern a country like Kenya requires winning in so many areas - first to get the majority and then to get Mps.
2007 rigged but Kibaki was not going to govern anyone - he didnt even have the speaker - and had less than 80mps including 42 from PNU. He badly needed a coalition. He rushed to Kalonzo to just hope.
Otherwise ODM had 105Mps and Wiper I think about 15mps - out of 190mps of those days. How do you govern with that.
Kibaki won in Nyeri,Kirinyaga, Embu ,Meru & Tharaka Nithi
Matiba took all the other Kikuyu regions.
Matibas and Kibakis Combination of Votes add some Luhya votes in 1992 could have out won Moi.
Now thats what later became United GEMA as from 2005 because of Kabila adui votes.
Im not saying Im an expert in GEMA politics just saying our understanding is different.
You can go back to our posts here prior to the elections you will realise while you were speculating most of the times I was providing real time information which was spot on.
You can ask Njuri.