Uda will not be 2nd anti-govt movement to dethrone incumbent govt out of power. opinion polls show what political scientists have been saying for months. the race is deadlocked but the momentum now is on Raila's side. this time Raila is running long distance instead of sprinting. gaining slowly while his opponent's momentum fizzles
the Tifa poll is an opinion poll not scientific one let me explai. I say so because it avoids the science of tribal balkanization. it is the tribal factor that carries elections in Africa. it is the single most important factor that if it is missed then political analysis is always way off. however, kenya democracy is over 34 years old. we are conducting 7th multiparty elections post 1990. therefore you would expect with our highly educated population and highly urbanization then the tribal allegiance to be of less importance. I believe uda mistep was picking social class struggle as it's platform. they missed that an educated populace wants more than empty sloganeering plus kenyans are neoconservatives but deceptively liberal socially
What if the Tifa poll is correct then it means that tribal affiliation means nothing in current elections. May be gender and ethics carry more weight. if this is the case then ruto must know his brand of politics have no future in kenya. my hope is that Tifa poll is correct and kenyans have risen above the parochial politics of tribal interests firsts to the politics of the greater good of the nation.
May be we are in cusp of reclaiming what we lost to kibaki tribalism post 2002 removal from power by Narc movement.
A new dawn may be upon us or we may be going back to the dark days of Mois rule from 1982 to 2002.
Topic: My read on Tifa and other polls who that ruto has lost momentum (Read 1549 times)