Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next

[Nowayhaha]

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France, Atlas Politico poll:

Presidential run-off election

Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%

Macron (EC-RE): 54%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
...

Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
Sample size: N/A
➤ https://t.co/Q3N85NmqYU pic.twitter.com/P3jlBNE3QY

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 7, 2022

[Dear Mami]

Not to do the nipate thing and brag, but, but . . . I did call it. Macron was a shoo-in till about a minute ago. Now he's fighting for his life! Poor guy. And he's among the more reasonable ones in the EU. Tried really hard to find an amicable solution. Even grumbled about the US escalating things just before the war started. I read Scholz, too, begged Zelensky to commit to neutrality before the war, warning things were getting really bad really fast, and Zelensky didn't care.

Repeating for the fourth time: Damn unlucky time to be up for re-election (specially in Europe!) But if this isn't resolved, it'll be even worse next year! Life will be ten times more difficult than the mild inconveniences starting to spook Europeans now (I understand in Germany, everything at the store is already 50% to 100% over the normal price (some 200%!), in just a couple of weeks(!) not to mention the gas).

People lose their idealism really fast when life gets tough and real . . . specially ones as spoilt as modern, comfortable, welfare-nurtured, vacation-going, average Europeans. People don't appreciate how comfortable the normal European is vs the rest of the world; they are NOT the nearly 50% Americans working several jobs, no paid leave, no real vacations, etc.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah he is gone..the French distrust politicians and now COVID plus Ukraine war..hard to see folks giving incumbents a second chance.They will punish sitting gov

[Dear Mami]

To be fair about Biden, though: Dude was already drowning long be4 Ukraine. Life getting harder for normal folks can only make things worse.

Btw, Le Pen has been warning the French that pushing Russia towards China or letting them join up with China is the worst thing on earth. She did it again just two days ago:

[Georgesoros]

I guess the same pollsters forecast Hillary win.

[Kadudu]

[RV Pundit]

Come up again?

[RV Pundit]

Look like there is run-off
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/apr/10/french-election-2022-projected-result-and-latest-results

[RV Pundit]

Now understood - Le Pen is dead - and that is good news for France and Europe - she seem a racist who will undo all the gains in EU.

[Nowayhaha]

Kadudu , you forget Brexit and Trumps win. We have 15 days and the last debate will be a major factor.
Be patient , Lets wait and see. Everyone knew Macron would take it the first round however no one is as confident for the second round.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Geopolitics masters I presume, You don't have a problem with a known racist Le Pen winning but are against Ukrainian fighting for their land and freedom,sounds like lunacy to me.
Back to France the country is a nobody in the greater equation of things,the french are cowardly people never won any war and obviously they won't want a war. They have been perennially rescused by the anglo saxons,first world war, second world war in Vietnam they suffered from dien peu fever a bunch of spinless idiots,not to mention when Napoleon invaded Russia it ended very badly for them,if it wasn't for the English the french would been speaking German. In west Africa they have run entire counties down with their inept, about 30% GDP of France comes from west Africa,still modern day slave countries and thats why English and French colonized countries are worlds apart even in Africa
Now back to modern day,the English rightly mistrust the spineless french just like slimy snails the are slippery and highly unreliable. I will leave you guys with more content on the French for you genius geo politician to use
https://www.strategypage.com/humor/articles/military_humor_complete_list_of_french_jokes.asp

[Dear Mami]

Geopolitics masters I presume, You don't have a problem with a known racist Le Pen winning but are against Ukrainian fighting for their land and freedom,sounds like lunacy to me.

Who said I want Le Pen, to win? Hebu soma vizuri . . .

Not to do the nipate thing and brag, but, but . . . I did call it. Macron was a shoo-in till about a minute ago. Now he's fighting for his life! Poor guy. And he's among the more reasonable ones in the EU. Tried really hard to find an amicable solution. Even grumbled about the US escalating things just before the war started. I read Scholz, too, begged Zelensky to commit to neutrality before the war, warning things were getting really bad really fast, and Zelensky didn't care.

Repeating for the fourth time: Damn unlucky time to be up for re-election (specially in Europe!)

Macron tried hard to find peace. So did the German Chancelor. They've been forced by the U.S. basically, but they don't want tensions with Russia. If they lose to reactionaries/rivals because of economic hardships, that will be unfortunate. And they will not be the only ones. Le Pen has been milking this Russian thing, as expected. Many other similar groups will be taking advantage elsewhere.

My hope is EU independence from US/NATO, (Meaning operating their own army plus leaving/dissolving NATO, plus deeper integration). It is NOT in EU breakup like far-right groups want (Brexits). EU breakup is a really dumb thing for a third-worlder to root for(!) It means more concentration of power globally in US/China alone. What I want is a multipolar world with at least 4/5 great powers at the same time (US/EU/China/India/Russia).

Any baafrika who cares about small countries getting fair shots and knows the brutality of international politics should want the same thing! Wanting EU breakup is as dumb as wanting Russian breakup/total defeat or wanting China's decline or hoping India doesn't continue to rise. It shows one is far more lost in the interests of great powers maintaining hegemony than in things getting fairer for small, weak countries.

[Njuri Ncheke]

...and oh yes I hate the French I did even rather entertain the Stupid Russians any day at least they are brave people,I also leave you with below quote
"The French are a smallish, monkey-looking bunch and not dressed any better, on average, than the citizens of Baltimore. True, you can sit outside in Paris and drink little cups of coffee, but why this is more stylish than sitting inside and drinking large glasses of whiskey I don't know." --- P.J O'Rourke (1989)

Boy I was soo glad when the English betrayed them on the Australian submarine deal they figured out they can't trust them.

[audacityofhope]

It isn't everyday that I am transfixed on a post from @Njuri Ncheke, but this one was well articulated. If @Veritas was updating reputation points, I would have put a whooping 50 on this post alone. 
I love posts like these which are supported. You cannot go against an argument when so much is cited as example from history. We say if you fail to learn from mistakes in history, then you are bound to repeat them.

That does not overlook the fact that Njuri - on account of your age which lies in same bracket as mine - this forum is not a level playing field and you took advantage of @Dear Baby's youth and inexperience in the exchange.

Geopolitics masters I presume, You don't have a problem with a known racist Le Pen winning but are against Ukrainian fighting for their land and freedom,sounds like lunacy to me.
Back to France the country is a nobody in the greater equation of things,the french are cowardly people never won any war and obviously they won't want a war. They have been perennially rescused by the anglo saxons,first world war, second world war in Vietnam they suffered from dien peu fever a bunch of spinless idiots,not to mention when Napoleon invaded Russia it ended very badly for them,if it wasn't for the English the french would been speaking German. In west Africa they have run entire counties down with their inept, about 30% GDP of France comes from west Africa,still modern day slave countries and thats why English and French colonized countries are worlds apart even in Africa
Now back to modern day,the English rightly mistrust the spineless french just like slimy snails the are slippery and highly unreliable. I will leave you guys with more content on the French for you genius geo politician to use
https://www.strategypage.com/humor/articles/military_humor_complete_list_of_french_jokes.asp

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kadudu , you forget Brexit and Trumps win. We have 15 days and the last debate will be a major factor.
Be patient , Lets wait and see. Everyone knew Macron would take it the first round however no one is as confident for the second round.

Orange Mussolini lost.  Badly.  He insists he won though.

[Dear Mami]

That does not overlook the fact that Njuri, given your age which is same bracket as mine, this forum is not a level playing field and you took advantage of @Dear Baby's youth and inexperience in the exchange.

The only thing Njuri said directly to me was his insinuation/accusation (quite mistaken!) that I think it's a good thing for leaders of Merkel/Macron's mould to lose in the EU, which I've corrected him on: My leaning is exactly the opposite. Literally, everything else he said after that sentence is a different topic. In what way do you think he and I were arguing or that he took advantage of my age?

 

[Nowayhaha]

In context

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[Dear Mami]

So, I saw this by Richard Medhurst and helped me understand French politics a lot!

Basically,
Macron = French Biden
Le Pen = French Trump
Melenchon = French Bernie

Melenchon only got 21.7% so he's out. But he's the only one among the top three who was offering something substantial for voters' lives. Now that he's out, the French press has started their own version of 'Vote Blue no matter who' to force Melenchon voters to vote for Macron, who, with Le Pen, is offering nothing to voters except 'Vote for me coz I'm not as bad as the alternative.' Le Pen is offering Trumpian anti-immigration policies (horrible) plus NATO-exit (good). She apparently dropped her EU-Frexit rubbish after she was badly beaten last time. So there's no candidate attempting to break up the EU, thank God. It looks like the French just pulled an America and destroyed their best candidate before the finale.

[Nowayhaha]

Dear Mami, No difference between NATO and EU. NATO is Military wing of EU .and yes BREXIT was beneficial to Kenya if you get the drift.

So, I saw this by Richard Medhurst and helped me understand French politics a lot!

Basically,
Macron = French Biden
Le Pen = French Trump
Melenchon = French Bernie

Melenchon only got 21.7% so he's out. But he's the only one among the top three who was offering something substantial for voters' lives. Now that he's out, the French press has started their own version of 'Vote Blue no matter who' to force Melenchon voters to vote for Macron, who, with Le Pen, is offering nothing to voters except 'Vote for me coz I'm not as bad as the alternative.' Le Pen is offering Trumpian anti-immigration policies (horrible) plus NATO-exit (good). She apparently dropped her EU-Frexit rubbish after she was badly beaten last time. So there's no candidate attempting to break up the EU, thank God. It looks like the French just pulled an America and destroyed their best candidate before the finale.

[Kadudu]

Noway in his usual ignorance. How many members of NATO including th US are not in the EU?

Dear Mami, No difference between NATO and EU. NATO is Military wing of EU .and yes BREXIT was beneficial to Kenya if you get the drift.