Macron Could be First Casualty of Ukrainian Crisis , Biden Next

[RV Pundit]

Nowayaha can be dogmatic and rigid; Why support a racist like Le Pen if you're african man.

[Njuri Ncheke]

It isn't everyday that I am transfixed on a post from @Njuri Ncheke, but this one was well articulated. If @Veritas was updating reputation points, I would have put a whooping 50 on this post alone. 
I love posts like these which are supported. You cannot go against an argument when so much is cited as example from history. We say if you fail to learn from mistakes in history, then you are bound to repeat them.

That does not overlook the fact that Njuri - on account of your age which lies in same bracket as mine - this forum is not a level playing field and you took advantage of @Dear Baby's youth and inexperience in the exchange.

Geopolitics masters I presume, You don't have a problem with a known racist Le Pen winning but are against Ukrainian fighting for their land and freedom,sounds like lunacy to me.
Back to France the country is a nobody in the greater equation of things,the french are cowardly people never won any war and obviously they won't want a war. They have been perennially rescused by the anglo saxons,first world war, second world war in Vietnam they suffered from dien peu fever a bunch of spinless idiots,not to mention when Napoleon invaded Russia it ended very badly for them,if it wasn't for the English the french would been speaking German. In west Africa they have run entire counties down with their inept, about 30% GDP of France comes from west Africa,still modern day slave countries and thats why English and French colonized countries are worlds apart even in Africa
Now back to modern day,the English rightly mistrust the spineless french just like slimy snails the are slippery and highly unreliable. I will leave you guys with more content on the French for you genius geo politician to use
https://www.strategypage.com/humor/articles/military_humor_complete_list_of_french_jokes.asp

A young naive girl like our Dear Mami can be easily taken advantage of by brute bullies like Pundit Noway axis and easily coerced into hullabaloo and hubris. Good girls like bad boys.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

So, I saw this by Richard Medhurst and helped me understand French politics a lot!

Basically,
Macron = French Biden
Le Pen = French Trump
Melenchon = French Bernie

Melenchon only got 21.7% so he's out. But he's the only one among the top three who was offering something substantial for voters' lives. Now that he's out, the French press has started their own version of 'Vote Blue no matter who' to force Melenchon voters to vote for Macron, who, with Le Pen, is offering nothing to voters except 'Vote for me coz I'm not as bad as the alternative.' Le Pen is offering Trumpian anti-immigration policies (horrible) plus NATO-exit (good). She apparently dropped her EU-Frexit rubbish after she was badly beaten last time. So there's no candidate attempting to break up the EU, thank God. It looks like the French just pulled an America and destroyed their best candidate before the finale.

I am assuming you mean Bernie when you say the "best candidate" in America's case.  Bernie - a good person IMO - is unfortunately also too polarizing to be a good general election candidate.  America's center of gravity leans just right of center. 

The right can go full-on tribalist because

1) they have always had a large monolithic base. 
2) the current alignment of the Electoral College gives their candidate a path(narrow to be sure) to win, even if they are unpopular. 

Dems enjoy numerical superiority overall, but are more diverse, which brings its own challenges.  They represent multiple issues BLM, gay marriage, universal healthcare, unions etc.  These don't always have support across the board.  The required balancing act is how you end up with Biden.  Bernie can excite one segment, but turn off another.  He would definitely have lost in Arizona and Georgia.  He might have struggled in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. 

[Nowayhaha]

RV first would like to say I do not support neither Macron nor Le Pen. Will come to that later.
If you have been following European politics and in this case France politics you would know Le Pen policy on Africa is different from Europe. Yes she is Eurosceptic but far from Anti Africa.
European Union changed as from 2000.  Africa which previously used to business with European Unions at State level all over a sudden had to adhere to so called European laws and standards which are in effect political sanctions .
As we witnessed with UK all over a sudden Brussels told them if they required labour they should seek from Eastern Europe and not Commonwealth countries. Romania Poland Bulgaria etc replaced Kenyan Doctors ,Nurses, Bankers, Hoteliers and Military men. After Brexit you can see UK now is looking for Kenyan Doctors,Nurses etc
Kenyan needs independent European states with Independent foreign and Economic policy rather than policies coming from bureocratic entity in Brussels.


https://qz.com/africa/937307/visiting-chad-marine-le-pen-wants-france-to-cut-ties-the-world-except-africa/

Nowayaha can be dogmatic and rigid; Why support a racist like Le Pen if you're african man.

[Dear Mami]

As we witnessed with UK all over a sudden Brussels told them if they required labour they should seek from Eastern Europe and not Commonwealth countries. Romania Poland Bulgaria etc replaced Kenyan Doctors ,Nurses, Bankers, Hoteliers and Military men. After Brexit you can see UK now is looking for Kenyan Doctors,Nurses etc
Kenyan needs independent European states with Independent foreign and Economic policy rather than policies coming from bureocratic entity in Brussels.

It's true, EU forces employers to prove they can't find anyone in EU before they can hire third-country employees (even Americans/Australians etc). Britain loosened up all sorts of migration laws to us about two years ago. And yes, it's good for us to be able to compete with EU countries directly without the EU protection/barrier giving other European countries an advantage over us.

But the problem is, it also increases American hegemony to diminish the EU. As things are going in Ukraine, it seems EU/Russia will weaken considerably while the US and China strengthen even more. I do not want that, don't think it's good for the world as a whole going forward. 4/5/6 great powers (even if not exactly equal) mean poor countries have a bigger voice as they are competed over as spheres of influence.

Already, China's BRI has prompted the EU to come up with its own version focused on technology, because they can't just sit back and cede Africa and other areas entirely to China's influence. This is their 'Global Gateway' that they unveiled last year, clearly realizing that merely badmouthing Chinese infrastructural investments in Africa (and elsewhere) wasn't going to work: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211203-with-its-global-gateway-eu-tries-to-compete-with-the-china-s-belt-and-road The only thing that will stem Chinese influence is out-competing them by becoming BETTER development partners for small countries. These same folk who are now mobilizing billions of euro to give us capital with which to develop . . . couldn't give us fair loans to save their lives in forever! (All the way from independence till the 2000s.)

If EU/Russia disappear from the top and it's just the US and China (India is well on its way to joining this gang, it's now clear, but even they have a ways to go and can't just replace them if they collapse now) all we'll have is a cold war without much gain, IMO. With 4/5/6 competing great powers, something like a 'Marshall Plan' for the global south starts becoming normal for each of them. As we lack capital (which we desperately need to develop the global south) this is very good for us. But if we have just the US and China, things like this are diminished.

[Nowayhaha]

You seem shallow in history , These Unions and alliances have been there since time memorial centuries and centuries and they were always motivated by economics and defence.
If EU is not NATO . Russia would have retaliated due to the economic war waged on them by the so called illegal sanctuons.
Almost 90% of countries in EU are in NATO and vice versa . You have Headquarters of NATO and EU in Brussels.
You have U.S. saying a united E.U. means a stronger united NATO.
Who is ignorant now ? U.S. interests in NATO is to make money through arm sales . If you control the miltary arm of the organization then you control the organization and that is what is happening. You are the ignorant one.

Noway in his usual ignorance. How many members of NATO including th US are not in the EU?

Dear Mami, No difference between NATO and EU. NATO is Military wing of EU .and yes BREXIT was beneficial to Kenya if you get the drift.

[Dear Mami]

You seem shallow in history , These Unions and alliances have been there since time memorial centuries and centuries and they were always motivated by economics and defence.
If EU is not NATO . Russia would have retaliated due to the economic war waged on them by the so called illegal sanctuons.
Almost 90% of countries in EU are in NATO and vice versa . You have Headquarters of NATO and EU in Brussels.
You have U.S. saying a united E.U. means a stronger united NATO.
Who is ignorant now ? U.S. interests in NATO is to make money through arm sales . If you control the miltary arm of the organization then you control the organization and that is what is happening. You are the ignorant one.

Noway in his usual ignorance. How many members of NATO including th US are not in the EU?

Dear Mami, No difference between NATO and EU. NATO is Military wing of EU .and yes BREXIT was beneficial to Kenya if you get the drift.

Yes, current EU's greatest weakness is failing to develop their own army and breaking out of NATO and US rule. They are like a vast American colony, no different from Japan. The difference, I guess, is I maintain hope that they still can and will break free. It needs a small ignition but its not something impossible.

[Kadudu]

The usual rant. NATO was formed after WW II to counter the Soviet Union. The EU is an economic pact. Mixing the two is like mixing sugar and salt. The EU can break up, but NATO will still exist. The other way round is also the case. So why is your favourite European politician Marine Le Pen ready to leave NATO but shies away from leaving the EU?

You seem shallow in history , These Unions and alliances have been there since time memorial centuries and centuries and they were always motivated by economics and defence.
If EU is not NATO . Russia would have retaliated due to the economic war waged on them by the so called illegal sanctuons.
Almost 90% of countries in EU are in NATO and vice versa . You have Headquarters of NATO and EU in Brussels.
You have U.S. saying a united E.U. means a stronger united NATO.
Who is ignorant now ? U.S. interests in NATO is to make money through arm sales . If you control the miltary arm of the organization then you control the organization and that is what is happening. You are the ignorant one.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The usual rant. NATO was formed after WW II to counter the Soviet Union. The EU is an economic pact. Mixing the two is like mixing sugar and salt. The EU can break up, but NATO will still exist. The other way round is also the case. So why is your favourite European politician Marine Le Pen ready to leave NATO but shies away from leaving the EU?

You seem shallow in history , These Unions and alliances have been there since time memorial centuries and centuries and they were always motivated by economics and defence.
If EU is not NATO . Russia would have retaliated due to the economic war waged on them by the so called illegal sanctuons.
Almost 90% of countries in EU are in NATO and vice versa . You have Headquarters of NATO and EU in Brussels.
You have U.S. saying a united E.U. means a stronger united NATO.
Who is ignorant now ? U.S. interests in NATO is to make money through arm sales . If you control the miltary arm of the organization then you control the organization and that is what is happening. You are the ignorant one.

And countries don't join the alliance under duress.  That's why you have Austria and Switzerland unmolested even though they haven't joined.  Of course there is an overlap with the EU.  Because most members are in the EU.  But to conflate the two is just lazy.

[Nowayhaha]

Go and school yourself about Austria-Hungarian Empire, Grand Duchy of Poland and Liuthenia. You think these Unions came about the other day. Go school yourself about Warsaw pact and Communism vs NATO and Capitalism. The ultimate goal of Eu is to form Federalisation of the European Union which would mirror U.S.A. Now tell me if there is a federal Govt of Europe wont there be a Defense arm to hold the Federal Govt together ? Yes for that you have NATO. However your naiveness and ignorance wont let know whats happening .

The usual rant. NATO was formed after WW II to counter the Soviet Union. The EU is an economic pact. Mixing the two is like mixing sugar and salt. The EU can break up, but NATO will still exist. The other way round is also the case. So why is your favourite European politician Marine Le Pen ready to leave NATO but shies away from leaving the EU?

You seem shallow in history , These Unions and alliances have been there since time memorial centuries and centuries and they were always motivated by economics and defence.
If EU is not NATO . Russia would have retaliated due to the economic war waged on them by the so called illegal sanctuons.
Almost 90% of countries in EU are in NATO and vice versa . You have Headquarters of NATO and EU in Brussels.
You have U.S. saying a united E.U. means a stronger united NATO.
Who is ignorant now ? U.S. interests in NATO is to make money through arm sales . If you control the miltary arm of the organization then you control the organization and that is what is happening. You are the ignorant one.

[Dear Mami]

As I said, before, Macron and Scholz don't want war with Russia. Just like his complaints before the war that Biden was escalating things, he is now refusing to carelessly throw around terms like genocide and war criminal

I still insist that the best thing for the world regarding Europe is for the EU to break away from NATO and cease being a US colony. It's 70+ years since WWII already: About time! I read somewhere that European countries fear German hegemony and would rather have the Americans lord it over them instead. I pray they get over themselves.

[Nowayhaha]

https://www.rt.com/news/553829-french-candidate-position-nato/

[Njuri Ncheke]

As expected a Frenchman to sabotage Kenya's economy just like they do in west Africa
https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2022/04/fuel-crisis-rubis-ceo-jean-christian-deported-over-economic-sabotage/
To know that they're poor souls in nipate geo politics masters supporting France which is the most abusive country to Africans is mind boggling, people need their heads recalibrated

[Nowayhaha]

Our polling average for EURACTIV shows Macron leading among the youngest and oldest. However, the intermediate age groups are more divided.

➤ https://t.co/oL97q6lO3I pic.twitter.com/TAqRcUTw7R

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 22, 2022

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Macron wins

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Massive defeat 58/41. Biden will probably trounce Republicans and Trump by the same margin. Being Pro-Russia in the west is suicide!

[GeeMail]

Trump pro-Russia will be a card Dems will play but will not work. Midterms will be truthteller.

[Georgesoros]

"Macro Lost" - Trump.

Why did the media say that polls were very close?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Macron wins

Historical.  Because he is the first President to be popularly re-elected while leading a majority party in parliament.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/22/why-is-it-so-unusual-for-a-french-president-to-win-re-election

[Kadudu]

Noway is now hiding. What did I predict some two weeks back?
Noway ni kelele mingi. He believes he is alpha and omega of all knowledge.

vote for Le Pen comes up to about 40%. The socialists and conservertives cannot vote for Le pen. Her chances of getting 50% are much less than Macron. In 2017 Macron had after the first round 24% and Le Pen 21%.