Gok should buy into Mobibus by offering them National Machine plant and land

[RV Pundit]

Interesting.

You can't blame the manufacturer. GoK safety standards are not worth mentioning. They could come up with something which would require crashing of samples etc but that would put many mhindis out of business. They manufacture the buses you see on the road and manyangas that kill people all over the country. Those contraptions whether buses, mini buses or manyanga are as unsafe as it can get. The upper part is connect to the chassis by two of four thin bolts. The seats are linked to the already detached body by two thin bolts. Most passengers in crashes involving buses die from being squeezed between seats that get detached and push to the front.

One can import safe buses but the lack of standards means they seats are removed and local seats installed. The motive is to create more sitting capacity to make more money. Of course that compromises safety and comfort. I stopped using public transport eons ago because with my height it was just torture to seat in one of these. I was on several times asked to bend my knee. I had no idea how that is physiologically possible!

I guess I am saying Mobibus cannot fail a test that does not exist!

[Omollo]

Yours is The List of Negatives. They are very good at helping a country to start an impossible industry.

When most Asian countries wanted to start the Iron and steel industry, the predictably invited Western "experts" to undertake feasibility studies. Needless to say they would be confronted with a long list of reasons why. For example:
1. You do not have enough raw material
2. You do not have any qualified people to...
3. You do not have enough electricity...

So these countries would use this as the list of things to do. People would be sent to study abroad at great coast and if denied access, they set up their own institutions and hired staff internationally. They found many of their own people having been educated and denied employment by racism and vacuum cleaned Europe and North America of these grateful guys.

They invested in electricity. China went on a damming spree against local and international protests. The focus was on the future.

Need I go further?

Bryana, today's car manufacturer is different from that of yesteryear. I used to drive a BMW and knew it had a Nissan engine manufactured engine. Just because you are driving a FORD do not assume the gearbox is made by FORD. It could have been made by Tartar in India. Companies no longer waste time and money on running expensive factories when they can easily order the parts from elsewhere. So engines, gearboxes, dashboards etc can be ordered and made to specifications. Most car "manufacturers" are really assemblers. Kenya needs to determine what percentage is made locally for the car to qualify to be "Made in Kenya".

Do not underestimate panafricanism. I was shocked to learn how popular Moi was in Africa for that Nyayo car. I quickly became unpopular for daring to pour water on an African effort. The Nyayo car has a place in the heart of Africa and can be sold and bought out of patriotism.

 

Omollo

Do you really believe that Kenya has the formidability to enter the auto industry competitively? I know you will say something along the lines of wakina South Korea but that comes along with a whole holstic economically progressive environment. I'm not shooting down the project, just providing food for thought. Quality 21st century manufacturing is a way of life, and to be honest with you the Kenyan way hardly displays that edge at the moment. But they could give it a shot, everything depends on markets though. As long as people buy to the point of autonomy there is a future.

[Brynn]

If panafricanism can trump market forces so be it! lol. I'm skeptical though given the number of African elite that choose to send their kids to study abroad while ignoring very decent local schools. I don't see that many Africans dressing in kikoi either. Good luck.

I'm a sober-minded pan Africanist. Globalism is here and real and we have to surf the wave smartly like India. Everyone has some kind of comparative advantage that they should maximize.

[Omollo]

Actually its not much required sold before the car makes it. I think 300 units in a short time would transform it. You know how Spain got in to the car business? Skoda benefitted from partnership with VW.

I think they should soldier on. Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, TZ, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia and GoK can each buy 50 each with Gok making it 100.  Itatosha

If panafricanism can trump market forces so be it! lol. I'm skeptical though given the number of African elite that choose to send their kids to study abroad while ignoring very decent local schools. I don't see that many Africans dressing in kikoi either. Good luck.

I'm a sober-minded pan Africanist. Globalism is here and real and we have to surf the wave smartly like India.

[Brynn]

Omollo

This is not a kids lemonade stand where the parents and neighbors show up to make the kid feel good about their lemons lol. Until I see clear signs of real demand this thing is stillborn.

[Omollo]

Bryana

GoK is supposed to be a salesman. This whole business of getting in to business competing with private capital is no way to go. Your analogy is just perfect. When POTUS goes to Japan to complain about the "trade deficit"its about kids lemonade. When Bush arm twists the Saudis to buy fighter planes at four times the price (and gives Israel the same planes for free) it is kids lemonade peddled by mom to neighbors.

So nothing wrong with Uhuru asking M7 to buy some of our cars. We can buy matoke in return!

Omollo

This is not a kids lemonade stand where the parents and neighbors show up to make the kid feel good about their lemons lol. Until I see clear signs of real demand this thing is stillborn.

[Brynn]

Demosh (allow me to exercise my oboho roots)

You are arguing from the premise that developing a manufacturing base in Africa will bring in science and technology (cart pulling horsepower). You assume that by importing engines at some point Africans will generate the scientific capital required to manufacture engines competitively. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The industrial revolution in Europe and Americas were the results of centuries of investment in the sciences and especially in the accelerated collaborative works that took from the 1600s after Newton and Galileo. You can trace the history of each and every breakthrough to some very fundamental undertaking. The Asian tigers on the other hand took advantage of their natural photocopy acumen to make things faster better etc.

Africans can't be starting where Europeans were 100 years ago. It's not feasible. There are alternative ways to bridge the gap, social organization and human capital remain the single most important leverage systems in today's global economy. We need to transform the African mind to stop these backward upuzi that badly affect us eg corruption so that we can be global equals.

[Omollo]

I have heard that argument several times before. You actually answer yourself towards the end of your own claim.

Take a new country that God just created from the rib of a Zebra - lets call it Zamunda. The people want to "develope" so they find they need to computerize. Would they go to ITC Museums and collect every old system that Britain or US went through? Of course not. They can very easily computerize by simply investing in the existing systems at their most advanced stage.

The automobile industry has definitely advanced over time. I gave you one example of engines being outsourced - not by one auto maker but a majority of them. I can add that for years British Rolls Royce has sold aircraft engines to US aviation industry.

In many cases the supplier ends up moving production close to the market. Spain was never a big industrial country. The dynamics of modern heavy industry took over. This has nothing to do with the "industrial revolution". Kenya does not have to go through the steps of "the industrial revolution".

Let me cite another example: University Education. Today Kenya has one of the highest enrollments in Universities in Africa. The result can be seen with so many Kenyans in the International civil service (to quote what I know). Of course we can now begin to pay attention to quality and productivity. Yet if you examine the history of this development, you will find it blanketed by matusi from wazungu. The word "mushroom" does appear a number of times. You can go further in history and examine the growth and expansion of Secondary education. You will find and prize the investment of Kenyans in Education. Harambees schools came up amid hostility from the state and the expatriate dominated civil service. In the 80s, when the IMF came up with its Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) Kenyans had to not only carry the weight of secondary education through heavy fees and other expenses but added Health to their burden with "Cost Sharing".

So you are preaching Christianity in the Vatican to the already converted.

BTW go slow on whatever you sampling. I try to keep the noise low on this site.

[Brynn]

On your closing statement, implicatory of a spat? None on my end :-). I don't have the energy for it so don warray, the Demosh thing was a FYI. I have a cousin called Omosh, one of my favs. On that note back to my serene bunker lol.

[Mr Mansfield.]

If GoK can arrange so that the price is like 300K per unit. The manufacturer can also help himself by launching a "luxury"! version which could then subsidize the cheaper version.

I can bet in a few years we will see this car edging out Proboxes and Dx especially in rural Kenya both as a matatu and utility vehicle. Once it catches up with Kenyans I can bet some guys will have to wait up to two years for delivery of their car

Those are the two most important markets,the urban middle class needs a luxury vehicle to knock out the premio,fielder,wish,subaru and there you have thousands of vehicle being sold,

The rural market market too is too huge,you can imagine maybe we have 20,000 probox my guesstimate ferrying passengers in rural areas,so demand is there,

Government does not need to buy 1000 mobius annually,it needs to assist Mobius sell 20,000 (we import 60,000 vehicles annually) mobius vehicle annually and the east African market is huge,Mobius role should be better design while gov should help in low energy,labour and  tax free raw materials and other inputs and we are good to go,With 24 in 1000 people owning cars in kenya,there will be huge demand in the next 20-30 years,competitiveness is key for mobius,

Without Prejudice.

[Mr Mansfield.]

Demosh (allow me to exercise my oboho roots)

You are arguing from the premise that developing a manufacturing base in Africa will bring in science and technology (cart pulling horsepower). You assume that by importing engines at some point Africans will generate the scientific capital required to manufacture engines competitively. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The industrial revolution in Europe and Americas were the results of centuries of investment in the sciences and especially in the accelerated collaborative works that took from the 1600s after Newton and Galileo. You can trace the history of each and every breakthrough to some very fundamental undertaking. The Asian tigers on the other hand took advantage of their natural photocopy acumen to make things faster better etc.

Africans can't be starting where Europeans were 100 years ago. It's not feasible. There are alternative ways to bridge the gap, social organization and human capital remain the single most important leverage systems in today's global economy. We need to transform the African mind to stop these backward upuzi that badly affect us eg corruption so that we can be global equals.

Africans are not starting where Europeans started,we are offering solution to life problems and the way to sustain that is through demand in any sector which is already there,gov assistance is to boost competitiveness to the local industry,local Manufacturing in automotive,electronic,high tech sector and pharmaceutical will assist science and technology because those companies will invest in research and development to be able to build human capital and come up with inventions (solutions to problems) which will be translated into more money,take a look at Samsung and Apple which are worth more than kenyan GDP,they keep on coming up with new things because of their investment in R&D,Lastly,the government needs to integrate the academia with private sector and commit more funds in research and development while the private sector builds venture capital,that's where the developed markets beat us,USA puts i think 3% in R&D,you have silicon valley where private sector is heavily invested in venture capital and a developed capital market that generates wealth,

Without Prejudice.

[RV Pundit]

Yes the relevant lessons will come from Asia. Kenya really need to study how South Korea,Japan,China,Malaysia and such countries have done it.

Yours is The List of Negatives. They are very good at helping a country to start an impossible industry.

When most Asian countries wanted to start the Iron and steel industry, the predictably invited Western "experts" to undertake feasibility studies. Needless to say they would be confronted with a long list of reasons why. For example:
1. You do not have enough raw material
2. You do not have any qualified people to...
3. You do not have enough electricity...

So these countries would use this as the list of things to do. People would be sent to study abroad at great coast and if denied access, they set up their own institutions and hired staff internationally. They found many of their own people having been educated and denied employment by racism and vacuum cleaned Europe and North America of these grateful guys.

They invested in electricity. China went on a damming spree against local and international protests. The focus was on the future.

Need I go further?

Bryana, today's car manufacturer is different from that of yesteryear. I used to drive a BMW and knew it had a Nissan engine manufactured engine. Just because you are driving a FORD do not assume the gearbox is made by FORD. It could have been made by Tartar in India. Companies no longer waste time and money on running expensive factories when they can easily order the parts from elsewhere. So engines, gearboxes, dashboards etc can be ordered and made to specifications. Most car "manufacturers" are really assemblers. Kenya needs to determine what percentage is made locally for the car to qualify to be "Made in Kenya".

Do not underestimate panafricanism. I was shocked to learn how popular Moi was in Africa for that Nyayo car. I quickly became unpopular for daring to pour water on an African effort. The Nyayo car has a place in the heart of Africa and can be sold and bought out of patriotism.

[kadame]

Omollo, Its so interesting what you say about Asians deliberately investing in those areas of weakness like education, and bringing back their brains home to propel their local industries. Brain drain is something baafrika suffers from i think more than anyone because we are more desperately in need of all our brains than other places. I agree with Pundit that the government should patronize sometimes, for the good of the people and development. Which is why I did not agree with the move to shelve senator keg, something that was  intended as a public safety mechanism and not for profit.

[Omollo]

I misunderstood. I am not great on pet names.

On your closing statement, implicatory of a spat? None on my end :-). I don't have the energy for it so don warray, the Demosh thing was a FYI. I have a cousin called Omosh, one of my favs. On that note back to my serene bunker lol.

[Omollo]

Indeed! It was a deliberate effort to succeed. Instead of reading the Mzungu conclusions and bolting, they decided to address each hardship. It is the process India used to get nuclear technology and has seen China record massive growth in virtually every sphere.

The problem with African leadership (and this from observing many of them closely over a long time) is the greed for money. They just want to have money. They believe their security is dependent on having lots of money. It does not matter how they get it but they need to hit 40 having lots of it. Sadly the frenzy continues even after 40.

Lets look at bad leadership. Look at Mudavadi - the one man I think represents the worst sort of leadership in Africa:

He has been in virtually every ministry since he walked in to the cabinet from Tysons Limited - Marketing and Supplies, Agriculture, Finance, Information, Transport and Communication, Local Government, among others. Yet he cannot name one major or minor achievement during his tenure in any ministry. Instead we have a litany of mishaps, scandals, heists and mismanagement. His presence in some of those ministries has resulted not just in stagnation but a reversal of progress already made. Some examples would help:

He was the minister for Transport and Communication at a time when the World was undergoing a revolution in communication and Transport. He presided over the denial of licences for FM radios, FM Phones (Mobile) and Mobile phones. He restricted the Internet and instituted draconian measures requiring persons wishing to connect to the internet to have their computers inspected at their own cost. The internet and mobile phone failed to take off at a time when Tanzania was recording a massive expansion and growth. Yet this is one of the people considered a "leader"! There is no scandal without his name in it! Goldenberg, Anglo Leasing, Tax Evasion! He even sold a graveyard and shared out the proceeds with his co-conspirators! 

As minister for local government, he grabbed and sold Kenya Railways land in Kisumu.

Omollo, Its so interesting what you say about Asians deliberately investing in those areas of weakness like education, and bringing back their brains home to propel their local industries. Brain drain is something baafrika suffers from i think more than anyone because we are more desperately in need of all our brains than other places. I agree with Pundit that the government should patronize sometimes, for the good of the people and development. Which is why I did not agree with the move to shelve senator keg, something that was  intended as a public safety mechanism and not for profit.

[gout]

Kasarani (why kasarani?) kapedo incident another reason why Govt should adopt this Mobius seriously .... customise it and test it in the rough terrain such that the police convoys wont have to follow the obvious cattle track

relying on toyotas tested in laboratories in Japan wont cut before these areas are modernized