Look like MaDVD has already sign up to Hustler Nation

[RV Pundit]

Wishful thinking. Maragoli will die with maDVD - and he will play half Kakamega. Bukusu seems Rutonated - even current governor looks destined for UDA - as Ford-K will have Lusaka backing Ruto.

Right now it's looking like Ruto with backing of maDVD+weta will carry 67 percent of luhyas and Raila 33 percent ;

MaDVD is important mostly in Maragoli and related sub tribes. Weta is important in Bukusu and related tribes. Raila has strong foothold in Busia and lower parts of former western provinces.

Teso is probably going to be 50-50.

My tweets regarding this subject matter - on 15th Dec suffices

1/4 MOASS Musings; How will Luhya vote in 2022? It increasingly looking like we will have 3-way split of the vote btw MaDVD+Weta, Raila and Ruto along North, Center & South belt of former Western province. Ruto taking the North, MaDVD taking the middle & Raila the South

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

2/4 Ruto's Sugoi & former Lugari district are almost 2km apart. In fact Ruto wife is from Likuyani in Kakamega. I see Ruto getting acceptance in former Lugari, North Kakamega, North of Bungoma and most of Tranzoia. Most of politician in these region are already in Ruto camp.

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

3/4  Raila's Riat home is also 2 Kms from Vihiga. I  see southern Luhyas - of Busia  - Southern Kakamega (Atwolis/Oparanyas-Butere/Khiwsero/Shinyalu ) - & southern Vihiga (Banyore- (Kiboswa-Maseno - majengo -)  and possibly South Bungoma will vote Raila.

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

4/4 MaDVD is popular in Maragoli - then toward the center of Kakamega town all the way to Matungu/Mumias.

Historically, North Luhyas aligned with Kalenjin& adopted circumscion/mass assimilated.

South Luhyas aligned with Luos.

Maragoli & Bukusu being populous were independent

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

[Pragmatic]

You seem to know more about Luhya-land than Luhyas themselves. Stop this know it all, am telling you from extensive on-ground interaction for over a month and still out here in the hinterlands. WsR was nearby at a place called Kona Mbaya this morning and I can tell you there was little interest in his shenanigans. Am telling you what will transpire, not your wishful wet dreams... the same way Mdvd lost his Sabatia seat is how he will lose this out when he crosses over to UDA. Weta likewise, he only got to get his Bungoma Senator seat because he was aligned to ODM... next time round, he will see the senate from viusasa. About Bungoma Governor, the little said the better...

Wishful thinking. Maragoli will die with maDVD - and he will play half Kakamega. Bukusu seems Rutonated - even current governor looks destined for UDA - as Ford-K will have Lusaka backing Ruto.

Right now it's looking like Ruto with backing of maDVD+weta will carry 67 percent of luhyas and Raila 33 percent ;

MaDVD is important mostly in Maragoli and related sub tribes. Weta is important in Bukusu and related tribes. Raila has strong foothold in Busia and lower parts of former western provinces.

Teso is probably going to be 50-50.

My tweets regarding this subject matter - on 15th Dec suffices

1/4 MOASS Musings; How will Luhya vote in 2022? It increasingly looking like we will have 3-way split of the vote btw MaDVD+Weta, Raila and Ruto along North, Center & South belt of former Western province. Ruto taking the North, MaDVD taking the middle & Raila the South

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

2/4 Ruto's Sugoi & former Lugari district are almost 2km apart. In fact Ruto wife is from Likuyani in Kakamega. I see Ruto getting acceptance in former Lugari, North Kakamega, North of Bungoma and most of Tranzoia. Most of politician in these region are already in Ruto camp.

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

3/4  Raila's Riat home is also 2 Kms from Vihiga. I  see southern Luhyas - of Busia  - Southern Kakamega (Atwolis/Oparanyas-Butere/Khiwsero/Shinyalu ) - & southern Vihiga (Banyore- (Kiboswa-Maseno - majengo -)  and possibly South Bungoma will vote Raila.

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

4/4 MaDVD is popular in Maragoli - then toward the center of Kakamega town all the way to Matungu/Mumias.

Historically, North Luhyas aligned with Kalenjin& adopted circumscion/mass assimilated.

South Luhyas aligned with Luos.

Maragoli & Bukusu being populous were independent

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 15, 2021

[RV Pundit]

So all UDA supporting politicians are not on the ground.
So all Weta and MaDVDS are not on the ground?
All the opinion polls showing Ruto is doing well are not on the ground.
All the luhyas in twitter and facebook who are expressing being tired supporting Raila and wanting to try new stuff are not on the ground.
And we shall listen to Mr Sifuna Pragmatic.

I am not mr Know it all - but I know enough of western to know the issues in each region and how they are likely to vote.

In 2017 this was my predictions for western

You seem to know more about Luhya-land than Luhyas themselves. Stop this know it all, am telling you from extensive on-ground interaction for over a month and still out here in the hinterlands. WsR was nearby at a place called Kona Mbaya this morning and I can tell you there was little interest in his shenanigans. Am telling you what will transpire, not your wishful wet dreams... the same way Mdvd lost his Sabatia seat is how he will lose this out when he crosses over to UDA. Weta likewise, he only got to get his Bungoma Senator seat because he was aligned to ODM... next time round, he will see the senate from viusasa. About Bungoma Governor, the little said the better...

[RV Pundit]

Pragmatic how did I get Luhya counties - if I know nothing about Luhya and it's politics.
Tranzoia - I predicted 45 - it was 45 on the dot

Elsewhere I understimate Jubilee...Kakamega I thought it was 8 - they got 11.
Bungoma - i thought 24 - they got 30 percent
Vihiga - I thought 5 - they got 9 percent
Busia - I thought 7 -they got 12

As you can see I tend to be harsh on my candidates because I am objective.

Signing maDVD+Weta basically makes Ruto 2022 President.

It basically makes 2022 a formality - and we can all save money - and USE MOASS

[Pragmatic]

Pragmatic how did I get Luhya counties - if I know nothing about Luhya and it's politics.
Tranzoia - I predicted 45 - it was 45 on the dot

Elsewhere I understimate Jubilee...Kakamega I thought it was 8 - they got 11.
Bungoma - i thought 24 - they got 30 percent
Vihiga - I thought 5 - they got 9 percent
Busia - I thought 7 -they got 12

As you can see I tend to be harsh on my candidates because I am objective.

Signing maDVD+Weta basically makes Ruto 2022 President.

It basically makes 2022 a formality - and we can all save money - and USE MOASS

[RV Pundit]

I am political pundit of no mean repute
Now listen
Factors working against Raila
1) Handshake - many western people and elite think Raila left them to dry - and negotiated a personal deal. This feeling is also very prevalent in Ukambani and coast. Raila should have insisted on structured talks with Uhuru and should have brought on board maDVD, Kalonzo and his crew. Then his trying to sell handshake fruits almost exclusively as Kisumu projecets further cement that.

2) Shabbily treating maDVD + OKA guys plus taking all the monies from political party funds - and for weta taking his little consolation prado to Orengo - the same mistreatment in coast - where despite Raila getting most votes - coast had nothing even in parliament to show for it.

3) Ruto delivered his bargain for his people in NASA zones. Lusaka got his senate speaker, Wamalwa minister, Echeza minister, Chief Whip washiali - and those that missed got small positions - others got retainer like Khwawale. There is a feeling out that there that Ruto is a reliable friend...who will not drop you dead like Raila..as long as you're in his team...Ruto will take care of you.

4) Jubilee 1.0 delivered rural paved roads and electricity - those are biggest vote winners in rural kenya - and gave Jubilee 5 percent jump in last election. Ruto was the guy on the ground.

Those four issues are not going to be easy to fix in campaign period.

But it can be done....
1) Run Kabila mbili narrative - tough if you're also courting GEMA.
2) Run Raila will die or Mandela moment - only if Bukusu or Luhyas are not reminded that Jaramogi died and Luos left ford-kenya for NDP.

And worse Ruto is best campaigner and propagandist

In short forget 2022 - and accept that baring Ruto dying or going mad or bankrupt or getting jailed - it's OVER - Ruto is now incoming PORK - and will win by min of 55 percent - and could get 60 percent if GEMA as I expect finally accept it's OVER.

IT IS OVER PEOPLE - this was only game Ruto needed to pull.

I am sure maDVD is billionaire and Weta got 700M cash money.

Next is for Uhuru Kenyatta to do handshake with Ruto - project Raila has drunk water - assuming he was ever serious about it -

[Omollo]

Pundit

I promised kutoingilia hichi kinyang'anyiro. Get one thing clear MaDvD has no votes. The most he can get is now down to under 50k. In fact this time Weta will attract more votes that MaDvD. Amekwisha.

Guy is more broke than a cathedral mouse waiting for Sunday crumbs. Money from state and Uhuru dried up. He has people to betray and get pay but who will buy the info? Perhaps if he goes to Ruto he may sell him to Uhuru. Once a cattle trader always a cattle merchant. It's not just MPs and MCAs running away... even hangerson are bolting. Ukiuliza kwa nini? Wanasema njaa ya ukame wa doo. Hata pesa ya fonge hawana.

Weta ain't that broke. But meanness is his middle name. Unfortunately Raila ain't making use of the opportunity. So many young "widows" but he's letting them pass because he doesn't want to care for them! Meanness

[Pragmatic]

Wake up from your dreamland....

I am political pundit of no mean repute
Now listen
Factors working against Raila
1) Handshake - many western people and elite think Raila left them to dry - and negotiated a personal deal. This feeling is also very prevalent in Ukambani and coast. Raila should have insisted on structured talks with Uhuru and should have brought on board maDVD, Kalonzo and his crew. Then his trying to sell handshake fruits almost exclusively as Kisumu projecets further cement that.

2) Shabbily treating maDVD + OKA guys plus taking all the monies from political party funds - and for weta taking his little consolation prado to Orengo - the same mistreatment in coast - where despite Raila getting most votes - coast had nothing even in parliament to show for it.

3) Ruto delivered his bargain for his people in NASA zones. Lusaka got his senate speaker, Wamalwa minister, Echeza minister, Chief Whip washiali - and those that missed got small positions - others got retainer like Khwawale. There is a feeling out that there that Ruto is a reliable friend...who will not drop you dead like Raila..as long as you're in his team...Ruto will take care of you.

4) Jubilee 1.0 delivered rural paved roads and electricity - those are biggest vote winners in rural kenya - and gave Jubilee 5 percent jump in last election. Ruto was the guy on the ground.

Those four issues are not going to be easy to fix in campaign period.

But it can be done....
1) Run Kabila mbili narrative - tough if you're also courting GEMA.
2) Run Raila will die or Mandela moment - only if Bukusu or Luhyas are not reminded that Jaramogi died and Luos left ford-kenya for NDP.

And worse Ruto is best campaigner and propagandist

In short forget 2022 - and accept that baring Ruto dying or going mad or bankrupt or getting jailed - it's OVER - Ruto is now incoming PORK - and will win by min of 55 percent - and could get 60 percent if GEMA as I expect finally accept it's OVER.

IT IS OVER PEOPLE - this was only game Ruto needed to pull.

I am sure maDVD is billionaire and Weta got 700M cash money.

Next is for Uhuru Kenyatta to do handshake with Ruto - project Raila has drunk water - assuming he was ever serious about it -

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,

From grapevine. Weta was paid 800M Kshs and Ma-DVD was paid at least 2.5B kshs cash money in untraceable bitcoins . Their cheques are ready as soon as they deposit the coalition agreement with UDA.They have made a huge fortune - in exchange of 5 percent - of votes mostly in Vihiga and Bungoma.

Soon you will see Weta and MaDVD driving helicopters

That just sign on fee - remember Uhuru paid Ruto 5B kshs - to fold up his campaigns in 2013.

Weta I think will become the National Assembly Speaker to replace Moturi.

MaDVD has signed up to be the Chief Minister to replace Matiangi - plus he will get 1/3 of all posts.

These guys are better off than decaying under hopeless Raila

Pundit

I promised kutoingilia hichi kinyang'anyiro. Get one thing clear MaDvD has no votes. The most he can get is now down to under 50k. In fact this time Weta will attract more votes that MaDvD. Amekwisha.

Guy is more broke than a cathedral mouse waiting for Sunday crumbs. Money from state and Uhuru dried up. He has people to betray and get pay but who will buy the info? Perhaps if he goes to Ruto he may sell him to Uhuru. Once a cattle trader always a cattle merchant. It's not just MPs and MCAs running away... even hangerson are bolting. Ukiuliza kwa nini? Wanasema njaa ya ukame wa doo. Hata pesa ya fonge hawana.

Weta ain't that broke. But meanness is his middle name. Unfortunately Raila ain't making use of the opportunity. So many young "widows" but he's letting them pass because he doesn't want to care for them! Meanness

[RV Pundit]

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

[Pragmatic]

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

Let folks underestimate DP in western at their own peril. The Luhyas in Lugari, Matunda, Natiri Corner, Cheptigit, Kiminini, Turbo, and Many villages in Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, and Bungoma counties will deliver for their son big time. In the Likuyani area alone, the deliverance will be upward of 80%, not because of Mzee Kiprugut Kimetto (DP's wife's father) influence in the region, but partly because many folks still remember the young man from Chromo Campus, who preached the gospel in the region in the 90s. DP invented or retrofitted religious "Kesha, or Kukesha" in Likuyani in 1990. The man has been in the ground for decades interacting with locals. DP in Likuyani is wildly popular!

[RV Pundit]

Rvhh,btw luhya outside lugari think ruto is luhya...coz of being born in likuyani and attending butere girls..but she is of course simatwa of amaco sister..

[Pragmatic]

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

Let folks underestimate DP in western at their own peril. The Luhyas in Lugari, Matunda, Natiri Corner, Cheptigit, Kiminini, Turbo, and Many villages in Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, and Bungoma counties will deliver for their son big time. In the Likuyani area alone, the deliverance will be upward of 80%, not because of Mzee Kiprugut Kimetto (DP's wife's father) influence in the region, but partly because many folks still remember the young man from Chromo Campus, who preached the gospel in the region in the 90s. DP invented or retrofitted religious "Kesha, or Kukesha" in Likuyani in 1990. The man has been in the ground for decades interacting with locals. DP in Likuyani is wildly popular!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

Let folks underestimate DP in western at their own peril. The Luhyas in Lugari, Matunda, Natiri Corner, Cheptigit, Kiminini, Turbo, and Many villages in Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, and Bungoma counties will deliver for their son big time. In the Likuyani area alone, the deliverance will be upward of 80%, not because of Mzee Kiprugut Kimetto (DP's wife's father) influence in the region, but partly because many folks still remember the young man from Chromo Campus, who preached the gospel in the region in the 90s. DP invented or retrofitted religious "Kesha, or Kukesha" in Likuyani in 1990. The man has been in the ground for decades interacting with locals. DP in Likuyani is wildly popular!

If in 2017 Jubilee reversed things for Ruto to be top and Uhuru deputy, the margins would have soared. People vote for President, not running mate in national elections. Of course, the area went for NASA the last time because of combined homeboys selling jaCon to locals. In 2013 Mudavadi was running. I think if Mudavadi and weta sell DP in the region, the numbers would easily surpass JaCon's in the last bout. Ruto is easy to sell because he is a close neighbor. In my Uasin Gishu, the Luhya guy won because DP endorsed him. Also, partly because 20 Kalenjins were running, paving the way for sole Luhya guy to win because Luhyas put all their votes in one basket. The reality is if MDVD and Weta endorse Raila, Ruto's numbers will dwindle considerably. Still, it will be better than Uhuru's 2013 and 2017 numbers because Ruto is a resourceful neighbor of Kakamega, Bungoma, and Trans Nzoia.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Rvhh,btw luhya outside lugari think ruto is luhya...coz of being born in likuyani and attending butere girls..but she is of course simatwa of amaco sister..

Yes, Kenya is segregated that folks assume if you were born in Kakamega, you are automatically a Luhya, or have Luhya connections. Likuyani, Soy, and many places were ''schemes'' or bastions of wazungu that blindly sold their land to anyone when they moved. Simotwo is DP's high school and Campus friend. The wife has no relation to the guy other than family friendship emanating from DP.

[RV Pundit]

Well noted. Yes I have met many luhyas who think Ruto wife is a luhya

Yes, Kenya is segregated that folks assume if you were born in Kakamega, you are automatically a Luhya, or have Luhya connections. Likuyani, Soy, and many places were ''schemes'' or bastions of wazungu that blindly sold their land to anyone when they moved. Simotwo is DP's high school and Campus friend. The wife has no relation to the guy other than family friendship emanating from DP.

[Nowayhaha]

Simply say there is no a GEMA candidate on the ballot.
This is a major factor in 2022 elections. For GEMA its the Raila factor he will be on the ballot all factors remain constant.
For the Anti Gema electorate there is no Gema candidate . Substantial number of voters will vote for Ruto in all NASA areas apart feom Luo Nyanza.
If Raila was wise he would sit out and factors would change.

Youre no longer pragmatic. Ruto by time he is done with Jakom - ndio utajua siasa sio mchezo. Remember the last deal is Gideon Moi to go for Baringo Senate and Uhuru to fold camp - and go build his Northland city in peace. Siasa bado bado.

Never never never never think a Moi or Kenyatta will trust an ODINGA. IMPOSSIBLE.

They did pull that card in 2002. In 2007 - Ruto quit KANU - as MOis and Kenyattas said no way to Odinga and went to Kibaki - in 2013 - Gideon went with MaDVD on their camp - in 2017 - Gideon quit NASA - and joined Jubilee. These are folks you are NOW DEPENDING ON TO BACK RAILA Kurogwa nini? The most scared of Raila presidency are Mois and Kenyattas! But keep your enemy close so you can monitor him.

So bado MAMBO. Ruto will likely win by 65 percent. Ngojea hapo tu MUNACHEZWA - little boys like Sifuna think he knows SIASA

Wake up from your dreamland....

Let folks underestimate DP in western at their own peril. The Luhyas in Lugari, Matunda, Natiri Corner, Cheptigit, Kiminini, Turbo, and Many villages in Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, and Bungoma counties will deliver for their son big time. In the Likuyani area alone, the deliverance will be upward of 80%, not because of Mzee Kiprugut Kimetto (DP's wife's father) influence in the region, but partly because many folks still remember the young man from Chromo Campus, who preached the gospel in the region in the 90s. DP invented or retrofitted religious "Kesha, or Kukesha" in Likuyani in 1990. The man has been in the ground for decades interacting with locals. DP in Likuyani is wildly popular!

If in 2017 Jubilee reversed things for Ruto to be top and Uhuru deputy, the margins would have soared. People vote for President, not running mate in national elections. Of course, the area went for NASA the last time because of combined homeboys selling jaCon to locals. In 2013 Mudavadi was running. I think if Mudavadi and weta sell DP in the region, the numbers would easily surpass JaCon's in the last bout. Ruto is easy to sell because he is a close neighbor. In my Uasin Gishu, the Luhya guy won because DP endorsed him. Also, partly because 20 Kalenjins were running, paving the way for sole Luhya guy to win because Luhyas put all their votes in one basket. The reality is if MDVD and Weta endorse Raila, Ruto's numbers will dwindle considerably. Still, it will be better than Uhuru's 2013 and 2017 numbers because Ruto is a resourceful neighbor of Kakamega, Bungoma, and Trans Nzoia.

[RV Pundit]

Yes Raila is confused because he destroyed his two kabila movement. Now he cannot rally anti-Kikuyu/gema forces because he like hyena is split down the middle.

If Raila was indeed smart - he would have endorsed someone else to run - but we want him running.

So dont tell him