Tigray taking over Ethiopia

[Gikomba_Hawker]

Every right thinking Kenyan wants a free and fair election. This is not the issue.

I'm talking about protecting innocent lives from terrorists. If an election is rigged and people who did not have anything to do with the rigging are killed under cover of darkness by cowards who call themselves "tribal warriors," these people should be labelled who they really are: terrorists.

Burning a church that has women and kids is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism by cowards. Killing a family from another tribe at night then running away is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism.

Every country is different. I'm just wondering how effective drone technology would be in Kenya against such terrorists.


Drones Will Help Track Somali Terrorists

Go Ask NATO how much they spent in Afgan. The answer 8 trillion dollars...more than enough to lift entire Africa out poverty..and 900,000 deaths.

End results. Nothing. Taliban are back running things.

Lesson: Some wars are not worth starting. Sometimes you need to avoid such useless wars and negotiate a win-win.

In kenya it simple - just hold free and fair election - VERY EASY. Implement COk2010 and kenya will become a proud and stable democracy.

You start games about openly rigging with deep state and system - you're dismembering the country.

I wonder how so-called African tribal warriors stand up to drone technology and firepower.

[RV Pundit]

If police attack and kill civilians. Civilians will kill civilians. Kibaki started in 2007 by shoot to kill on ODM protestors - before any kalenjin responded in 3rd Jan (Kibaki swearing day) - Kibaki had filled morgues of Kisumu and City mortuary with Luos protestors.

He had definitely planned the rigging and knew Luos would protest - and had prepared to massacre them into submission. What he new saw was Kalenjin reacting violently over a Luo election. In 3 days of Kalenjin gallant freedom fighters (or terrorists) fightback - he was on the ropes and was ready for talks. The 2007 eventually gaves us the constitution. You can call them terrorist or freedom fighters.

Otherwise I agree - the next battle if it comes - warriors should be given guns and arms - so they can battle police - and leave civilians.

Even better Kalenjin security forces should mutiny and fight Kenya gov security. That would be parity in arms....and would results in a fair war.

We need to upgrade the war - so poor do not fight the poor. They should fight the guys who cause the war.

For example it's Uhuru business to manage transition.If he fails or interferes with succession  - he should be one on the receiving end - not a poor mama mboga. That is Hustler Nation message I guess.

Every right thinking Kenyan wants a free and fair election. This is not the issue.

I'm talking about protecting innocent lives from terrorists. If an election is rigged and people who did not have anything to do with the rigging are killed under cover of darkness by cowards who call themselves "tribal warriors," these people should be labelled who they really are: terrorists.

Burning a church that has women and kids is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism by cowards. Killing a family from another tribe at night then running away is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism.

Every country is different. I'm just wondering how effective drone technology would be in Kenya against such terrorists.


Drones Will Help Track Somali Terrorists

[Gikomba_Hawker]

I know what's really going on here but I'll pretend otherwise for now.

Terrorizing innocent civilians who had nothing to do with the rigging should not be dressed up as "freedom fighting" of "African warrior tradition." It is terrorism pure and simple and it needs to be nipped in the bud ASAP. It should never be a bargaining chip in politics.

We cannot have courts (even if they are not perfect), which are funded by millions of taxpayers, and your so-called "tribal warriors" waiting on the sidelines to strike innocent civilians. You need to choose one (but I know where your true heart is). Otherwise this is domestic terrorism and must be treated accordingly. Try that crap in America and see what happens.

Those of us who have been advocating for reforms in Kenya, when people like Ruto were against us, know that true and legal change is not an easy struggle. But we did not take short cuts by advocating that the killing of innocent Kalenjins was fine since this would force Ruto, Biwott and Moi to see the light.

Like I said, I know what is really going on. I pray it does not succeed. 

If police attack and kill civilians. Civilians will kill civilians. Kibaki started in 2007 by shoot to kill on ODM protestors - before any kalenjin responded in 3rd Jan (Kibaki swearing day) - Kibaki had filled morgues of Kisumu and City mortuary with Luos protestors.

He had definitely planned the rigging and knew Luos would protest - and had prepared to massacre them into submission. What he new saw was Kalenjin reacting violently over a Luo election. In 3 days of Kalenjin gallant freedom fighters (or terrorists) fightback - he was on the ropes and was ready for talks. The 2007 eventually gaves us the constitution. You can call them terrorist or freedom fighters.

Otherwise I agree - the next battle if it comes - warriors should be given guns and arms - so they can battle police - and leave civilians.

Even better Kalenjin security forces should mutiny and fight Kenya gov security. That would be parity in arms....and would results in a fair war.

We need to upgrade the war - so poor do not fight the poor. They should fight the guys who cause the war.

For example it's Uhuru business to manage transition.If he fails or interferes with succession  - he should be one on the receiving end - not a poor mama mboga. That is Hustler Nation message I guess.

Every right thinking Kenyan wants a free and fair election. This is not the issue.

I'm talking about protecting innocent lives from terrorists. If an election is rigged and people who did not have anything to do with the rigging are killed under cover of darkness by cowards who call themselves "tribal warriors," these people should be labelled who they really are: terrorists.

Burning a church that has women and kids is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism by cowards. Killing a family from another tribe at night then running away is not an act of a warrior. It's an act of terrorism.

Every country is different. I'm just wondering how effective drone technology would be in Kenya against such terrorists.


Drones Will Help Track Somali Terrorists

[RV Pundit]

I understand your concerns - and I am also praying we have the most free and fair election - and if there are problems - judiciary are able to rise to the occasion. Maraga already did kenya proud although I disagree with merits of the case...I recognise the decision for it's novelty.

Now instead of trying to civilize kalenjin in few months....I would focus on making sure we call out any attempt to rig election starting yesterday...and any attempt by Koome to undo the reform gains.

We were all in trenches fighting MO1. But unlike you I deal with reality. Not hypothesis. The reality remain Kalenjin savage mode can be easily activated by any perception of rigging.

If you think that Kalenjin need to be prompted or organized or pre-planned - then you're NOT LISTENING. All these years you should already know they don't. They just need a trigger good enough to become a rally cry for entire community. Ruto is the rallying cry. If anything happen today to Ruto - within 2hours - we could see chaos. Do you think people will wait to be organized or prepped for war

Or you think they are logging into to Nipate - and reading btw the lines - to start their attacks

Some of your are either desperate to live your own reality or really crazy nuts.

I know what's really going on here but I'll pretend otherwise for now.

Terrorizing innocent civilians who had nothing to do with the rigging should not be dressed up as "freedom fighting" of "African warrior tradition." It is terrorism pure and simple and it needs to be nipped in the bud ASAP. It should never be a bargaining chip in politics.

We cannot have courts (even if they are not perfect), which are funded by millions of taxpayers, and your so-called "tribal warriors" waiting on the sidelines to strike innocent civilians. You need to choose one (but I know where your true heart is). Otherwise this is domestic terrorism and must be treated accordingly. Try that crap in America and see what happens.

Those of us who have been advocating for reforms in Kenya, when people like Ruto were against us, know that true and legal change is not an easy struggle. But we did not take short cuts by advocating that the killing of innocent Kalenjins was fine since this would force Ruto, Biwott and Moi to see the light.

Like I said, I know what is really going on. I pray it does not succeed. 

[Gikomba_Hawker]

Oh, I see. So now it's all about what others are doing against Ruto? You, and your loud declarations that Ruto cannot lose in a fair election (to take just one example), are not part of the problem?

You're an expert at speaking from both ends of your mouth.

I understand your concerns - and I am also praying we have the most free and fair election - and if there are problems - judiciary are able to raise to the occasion.

Now instead of trying to civilize kalenjin in few months....I would focus on making sure we call out any attempt to rig election starting yesterday...and any attempt by Koome to undo the reform gains.

We were all in trenches fighting MO1. But unlike you I deal with reality. Not hypothesis. The reality remain Kalenjin savage mode can be easily activated by any perception of rigging.

I know what's really going on here but I'll pretend otherwise for now.

Terrorizing innocent civilians who had nothing to do with the rigging should not be dressed up as "freedom fighting" of "African warrior tradition." It is terrorism pure and simple and it needs to be nipped in the bud ASAP. It should never be a bargaining chip in politics.

We cannot have courts (even if they are not perfect), which are funded by millions of taxpayers, and your so-called "tribal warriors" waiting on the sidelines to strike innocent civilians. You need to choose one (but I know where your true heart is). Otherwise this is domestic terrorism and must be treated accordingly. Try that crap in America and see what happens.

Those of us who have been advocating for reforms in Kenya, when people like Ruto were against us, know that true and legal change is not an easy struggle. But we did not take short cuts by advocating that the killing of innocent Kalenjins was fine since this would force Ruto, Biwott and Moi to see the light.

Like I said, I know what is really going on. I pray it does not succeed. 

[RV Pundit]

As of now Ruto cannot lose in a free and fair election - but there are still many dynamics. See MOAS thread. I have for example talked about few things to look out for. OKA is one of them. They are 13-15 percent worth of voters. How Mt kenya will vote - still hard to predict with precision...that is why MOASS has scenarios of Ruto getting 40,50,60, 70, 80 percent of GEMA. There are givens - how Luo and Kalenjin will vote.

If election are held tonight - it would be implausible and improbable for Ruto to lose. It would trigger a lot of suspicion of rigging and all Ruto need to say - is I am rigged - and I wont go to court - and war starts.

Can Ruto be beaten in 2022. Of course. NASA need to re-unite - back to 45 percent - and hunt for 5 percent. If they dont - and Ruto continue making inroads in NASA zones - then SHIDA TUPU.

Oh, I see. So now it's all about what others are doing against Ruto? You, and your loud declarations that Ruto cannot lose in a fair election (to take just one example), are not part of the problem?

You're an expert at speaking from both ends of your mouth.

[Njuri Ncheke]

From my analysis it appears tigray abandoned going for the neck simply because in military terms it playing with russian roulette,now they have retreated to reorganize and dig in heavily fortified strongholds to draw federal forces out to them so that they can annihilate them then move back to trying to Recapture lost ground and addis. This is inline with proper military/war doctrine you dont move on a straight line with enemies surrounding you. They will simply pick you and annihilate just like nandi were able to harras the lunatic railway building.

[RV Pundit]

They were hoping for a quick run - but seem Abiy acquired drones that are doing damage. Now it going to be a long drawn war - that will bankrupt Ethiopia. It would have been better if war had been won by either parties. Abbiy obviously not going back to Tigray. Tigray will have to find a way to achieve parity in airforce - or simply dig in until Ethiopia is so broke.

From my analysis it appears tigray abandoned going for the neck simply because in military terms it playing with russian roulette,now they have retreated to reorganize and dig in heavily fortified strongholds to draw federal forces out to them so that they can annihilate them then move back to trying to Recapture lost ground and addis. This is inline with proper military/war doctrine you dont move on a straight line with enemies surrounding you. They will simply pick you and annihilate just like nandi were able to harras the lunatic railway building.

[Njuri Ncheke]

They were hoping for a quick run - but seem Abiy acquired drones that are doing damage. Now it going to be a long drawn war - that will bankrupt Ethiopia. It would have been better if war had been won by either parties. Abbiy obviously not going back to Tigray. Tigray will have to find a way to achieve parity in airforce - or simply dig in until Ethiopia is so broke.

From my analysis it appears tigray abandoned going for the neck simply because in military terms it playing with russian roulette,now they have retreated to reorganize and dig in heavily fortified strongholds to draw federal forces out to them so that they can annihilate them then move back to trying to Recapture lost ground and addis. This is inline with proper military/war doctrine you dont move on a straight line with enemies surrounding you. They will simply pick you and annihilate just like nandi were able to harras the lunatic railway building.

Yes that is the most likely scenario now if Abiys men dont throw caution to the wind as they are not as experienced as the Tigray.
Tigray need to hurriedly retreat and reorganize or hence they will be surrounded and cut off from their strongholds and decimated. The afar militia and fano are closing on cutting them off from A2 to tigray

[gout]

China, US, UAE and Turkey meddling. Egypt must be also happy but unlikely to be meddling - It will be very happy for a broke Ethiopia so the GERD can be on hold. Meaning more Ethiopians using firewood from Blue Nile catchments which eventually will be a death bell for Nile which myopic military cannot foresee. 

At last the pride of Ethiopia has been sold by Abbiy fool for drones!! I still hope he will go Gaddafi or Saddam way in some desolate village. He needs to go whatever the outcomes.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Tigray(kalenjin) appear to have been cut out and surrounded in 2 pockets along the A2 to Kombolcha and risk annihilation,the gamble for going for the neck has backfired seriously all surrounding land in hands of Abiy. Main battle for Dessie and Kombolcha loading

[Gikomba_Hawker]

I have to say that I am for a strong Ethiopia surviving. I do not want Ethiopia breaking up. To me, it was bad enough that Eritrea broke away. I have always wanted a strong Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has always been a strong ally of Kenya and vice versa.

Kenya and Ethiopia need each other to counter Somalia. I will never support the weakening of Ethiopia.

[Kadudu]

A disintegrated Ethiopia would be a disaster for East Africa. It would be felt allover from Egypt, Sudan, S. Sudan, Somalia and Uganda too.

I have to say that I am for a strong Ethiopia surviving. I do not want Ethiopia breaking up. To me, it was bad enough that Eritrea broke away. I have always wanted a strong Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has always been a strong ally of Kenya and vice versa.

Kenya and Ethiopia need each other to counter Somalia. I will never support the weakening of Ethiopia.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Yep appears as if Dessie and Kombolcha will fall today. I finally managed to get intouch with my informant on the frontline,the last few days have seen heavy fighting not reported on the media due to blackouts,there are very graphic photos I cant post . In one battle confirmed 600 tigray wiped out by drones as they retreated,survivors then machine gunned by fano militia. Like I stated early on in this thread tigray population will reduce by about 2%

[Njuri Ncheke]

Yes federal forces fano confirmed in Dessie and Kombolcha
Invalid Tweet ID?s=20

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It's pretty obvious America doesn't like the Ethiopian government.  Can they decide to intervene to help their Tigray lackey with targeted strikes?  It's ominous, because America has generally left a trail of destruction in its wake.  They mess you up and then move on leaving the victim to sort themselves out.

[RV Pundit]

It obvious they will bring sanctions soon on Abiy and his key gov officials. But I doubt they will get UNSC sanctions without China and Russia on board. China has invested so much in Ethiopia - they are going to be biggest losers - because Ethiopia is no position to pay debts.

But really bad news for Ethiopia. The Anglo Saxons will crush their economy Zim style - because they hate anybody not listneing to their wise counsel.  Meanwhile Tigrays will dig in.

It's pretty obvious America doesn't like the Ethiopian government.  Can they decide to intervene to help their Tigray lackey with targeted strikes?  It's ominous, because America has generally left a trail of destruction in its wake.  They mess you up and then move on leaving the victim to sort themselves out.

[RV Pundit]

TDF I guess are back to their homeland. ENDF will not dare cross into Tigray. I think last battle will be in Woldiya. Then we have a long stalemate.

Yes federal forces fano confirmed in Dessie and Kombolcha
Invalid Tweet ID?s=20

[Njuri Ncheke]

TDF I guess are back to their homeland. ENDF will not dare cross into Tigray. I think last battle will be in Woldiya. Then we have a long stalemate.

Yes federal forces fano confirmed in Dessie and Kombolcha
Invalid Tweet ID?s=20

You penned your tigray hopes on western disinformation campaigns,there was no threat of Tigray taking addis from a military perspective only scaremongering. Its simple when tigray went for the neck their fate was sealed.
Most importantly is that tigray have lost huge number of fighters and equipment they won't recover from  this soon it was a fatal blow while Abiy can draw on the endless amounts of fighters from Afar, Amhara and Oromo. Actually Afar fighters proved to be the main turning point in this war tigray venture s into afar region were disastrous thousands killed in the arid plains. Afar are actually the martial class they have a fearsome reputation more than Tigray. I would say they are like Merus quick tempered and fearless,they ended rigray dreams.
Howeve what i predict is Abiy will continue to blockade and weaken, increase drone strikes in Tigray  as his forces consolidates all gains made,refit and replenish,then will try to launch a full offensive in tigray, already western tigray is in hands of Amhara fano who have caused all kinds of problems there. But this will be a drawn out war in tigray.

[RV Pundit]

Tigray has done very well for a population that is 6 percent and is really hated by other Ethiopias. Yes I agree that Afar also have fearsome reputation as fighters. Meru nobody fears you - not any of your neighbeours - use the machetes to weed farms

Tigray had a good plan - that seem to have unraveled with drone attack and of course local population opposition. Now for Tigrays to relaunch attack - they have to figure out how to deal with ENDF airforce.

Maybe they will ask US and the UN to impose no fly zone or something like that if they cry genocide against their people. They have already made a good case.

If they cannot impose a NO FLY Zone - on Ethiopia - then Tigray forces will need very serious anti-air missiles. Either way as China prop Abiy - the US need to prop Tigray and stop this attempted genocide against a minority by combined gov of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

I am still for Tigray forces to prevail
1) Abiy is a.hole who started a senseless war and
2) Abiy together with Eritrea and 90m Ethiopias are basically on a genocide mission on the minority tigray for the crimes of TPLF regime of Meles Zenawi.

Finally I am going to always back a underdog. What is there to back a big bully like Abbiy.

If a No Fly Zone is imposed - and arm sales to Ethipia banned - TDF will take a month to do another run for Adis.

You penned your tigray hopes on western disinformation campaigns,there was no threat of Tigray taking addis from a military perspective only scaremongering. Its simple when tigray went for the neck their fate was sealed.
Most importantly is that tigray have lost huge number of fighters and equipment they won't recover from  this soon it was a fatal blow while Abiy can draw on the endless amounts of fighters from Afar, Amhara and Oromo. Actually Afar fighters proved to be the main turning point in this war tigray venture s into afar region were disastrous thousands killed in the arid plains. Afar are actually the martial class they have a fearsome reputation more than Tigray. I would say they are like Merus quick tempered and fearless,they ended rigray dreams.
Howeve what i predict is Abiy will continue to blockade and weaken, increase drone strikes in Tigray  as his forces consolidates all gains made,refit and replenish,then will try to launch a full offensive in tigray, already western tigray is in hands of Amhara fano who have caused all kinds of problems there. But this will be a drawn out war in tigray.