Deep state warned not even think stealing a kalenjin vote

[mankind]

  RV  can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been.  That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed.  Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles.  I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to  a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest.  Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki.  From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo.  Have the opposition figures come in very fast.  The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap.  That strategy almost worked for Trump  too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.

[RV Pundit]

We did with Papaf MOAS. It was my first MOAS or 2nd - mine was Raila at 46 percent - Kibaki was at 43 percent. I thought Kalonzo would get 10-12 percent - there a wakwitu character who was really pushing Kaloi.

Basically it was 2005 referendum results - with Kalonzo 10 percent removed from Raila. Orange had won by 58 percent - with Kibaki team losing with 42 percent. As we approached election - no major realignment happened - except for Kalonzo bolting out of ODM to ODM-K.

ODM were not releasing result late or early. It was the work of ECK. All elections results nearer Nairobi would check in early in all previous election and referendum. Those days ECK returning officer had to drive all the way to Nairobi. Those in Mandera and Turkana would take some time...why would Ruiru...just 20kms from Nairobi would not arrive when Turkana North and Mandera North had checked?

So stop this crap about Kibaki or Raila witholding results. ODM or Raila had no role in when results would arrive in ECK KICC. Kibaki basically prevented ECK from doing their job. They compromised and sometimes kidnapped returning officer to withhold the results - because they needed to know the TOP UP MARGIN - did the padding - and then escorted ECK ROs to file rigged polls.

Unlike NASA propaganda of 2013/2017 - results if they stream in randomly - should reflect the total - once you have good enough sample - it how scientific research is done - well selected sample can represent the entire population.

  RV  can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been.  That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed.  Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles.  I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to  a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest.  Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki.  From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo.  Have the opposition figures come in very fast.  The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap.  That strategy almost worked for Trump  too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.

[vooke]

Beliefs

Beliefs

2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.

It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations



In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.

2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.

In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.

If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.

So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?

This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence

[RV Pundit]

Why didnt he not participate in a re-run.

Beliefs

Beliefs

2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.

It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations



In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.

2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.

In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.

If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.

So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?

This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence

[Njuri Ncheke]

Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always

[mankind]

We did with Papaf MOAS. It was my first MOAS or 2nd - mine was Raila at 46 percent - Kibaki was at 43 percent. I thought Kalonzo would get 10-12 percent - there a wakwitu character who was really pushing Kaloi.

Basically it was 2005 referendum results - with Kalonzo 10 percent removed from Raila. Orange had won by 58 percent - with Kibaki team losing with 42 percent. As we approached election - no major realignment happened - except for Kalonzo bolting out of ODM to ODM-K.

ODM were not releasing result late or early. It was the work of ECK. All elections results nearer Nairobi would check in early in all previous election and referendum. Those days ECK returning officer had to drive all the way to Nairobi. Those in Mandera and Turkana would take some time...why would Ruiru...just 20kms from Nairobi would not arrive when Turkana North and Mandera North had checked?

So stop this crap about Kibaki or Raila witholding results. ODM or Raila had no role in when results would arrive in ECK KICC. Kibaki basically prevented ECK from doing their job. They compromised and sometimes kidnapped returning officer to withhold the results - because they needed to know the TOP UP MARGIN - did the padding - and then escorted ECK ROs to file rigged polls.

Unlike NASA propaganda of 2013/2017 - results if they stream in randomly - should reflect the total - once you have good enough sample - it how scientific research is done - well selected sample can represent the entire population.

  RV  can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been.  That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed.  Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles.  I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to  a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest.  Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki.  From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo.  Have the opposition figures come in very fast.  The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap.  That strategy almost worked for Trump  too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.

      Another one of those flukes. Using 2005 referendum is one lame example because we all know that religious groups and Kanu opposed the referendum but the same was not applicable in the elections. We all remember what happened where disagreements were created to prevent results to be announced by party officials while in most opposition areas the PNU guys were not even allowed in. I remember nation media group was posting results in a bar graph type and when they stopped Raila was ahead by close to a million. We were following with my friends and had placed bets on different provinces. I pointed out the same thing am telling you when my buddies some of whom we fell out unfortunately that the opposition areas were almost done while central was only starting. Go back and repost the registered numbers by province then and the election results then we compare. I belief we are good at analyzing the numbers and we can come up with a near accurate of what happened . Remember Rv plus Nyanza voted overwhelmingly for Raila while Central, Upper eastern with close to eight hundred thousand votes went to PNU plus greater Nakuru with a very huge Kikuyu population. If I remember correctly  Rv had about 1.8-2m voters, Luo Nyanza about a million while Central alone had about 2.4 million registered voters. So my request is the same without bias post the registered numbers and the election results we dissect them. We are learned people here not villagers who just believe stuff. We should be open to persuasion as intellectuals right?

[RV Pundit]

2005 had no church - you're confusing with 2010. Only Uhuru and Moi family switched camp to PNU. They had almost zero impact.

If you're really interested in the intellectual part - not the emotional part - foresnic analysis has been done - and rigging areas identified.

      Another one of those flukes. Using 2005 referendum is one lame example because we all know that religious groups and Kanu opposed the referendum but the same was not applicable in the elections. We all remember what happened where disagreements were created to prevent results to be announced by party officials while in most opposition areas the PNU guys were not even allowed in. I remember nation media group was posting results in a bar graph type and when they stopped Raila was ahead by close to a million. We were following with my friends and had placed bets on different provinces. I pointed out the same thing am telling you when my buddies some of whom we fell out unfortunately that the opposition areas were almost done while central was only starting. Go back and repost the registered numbers by province then and the election results then we compare. I belief we are good at analyzing the numbers and we can come up with a near accurate of what happened . Remember Rv plus Nyanza voted overwhelmingly for Raila while Central, Upper eastern with close to eight hundred thousand votes went to PNU plus greater Nakuru with a very huge Kikuyu population. If I remember correctly  Rv had about 1.8-2m voters, Luo Nyanza about a million while Central alone had about 2.4 million registered voters. So my request is the same without bias post the registered numbers and the election results we dissect them. We are learned people here not villagers who just believe stuff. We should be open to persuasion as intellectuals right?

[RV Pundit]

Rigged then won fair and square. I think 1,000 dead people and 600K evicted will want to disagree. Kibaki messed up kenya but thankfully we got cok2010 constitution from that war.

Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always

[Njuri Ncheke]

Rigged then won fair and square. I think 1,000 dead people and 600K evicted will want to disagree. Kibaki messed up kenya but thankfully we got cok2010 constitution from that war.

Crap stuff ODM rigged everyone rigged. Kibaki worn 2007 fair and square only the margin was small maybe he worn by arou 23,000 votes.
Kibaki will go down in history as a warrior who didn't cave in to cave men. Long live Kibaki and may God bless you always

Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.

[RV Pundit]

Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.

In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived.  That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori,  Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.

2007 was truly a war - not an election.

How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.

The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.

Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.

[mankind]

Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.

In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived.  That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori,  Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.

2007 was truly a war - not an election.

How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.

The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.

Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.

   The truth is closer to what Njuri is saying.  Kibaki won but with a small margin.  I  had the privilege of knowing Noah Wekesa as a family friend in Transnzoia and remember he was the Pnu elections coordinator then and that is the same thing he said privately to friends.  Gumo later said the same thing.  Most rational people knew ODM lost but its not easy to convince ordinary folks.  I repeat again post those 2 numbers and you will see a clear picture emerge.  It's just like 2013 and 2017. The  opposition doesn't have the numbers.  Today Ruto is only competing with 50 plus one not Raila  unless Mt Kenya are convinced to reject him.A very tall order.

[Kadudu]

Kibaki made the biggest mistake to make his homeboys the top hanchos in his regime. Who knew the likes of Chri Murungaru before 2003? Kibaki in 2003 was not mentally fit to be president. Those surrounding him took advantage of the situation and turned a majority of the country against Kibaki. Kikuyus play here the tribal card, but it is them who played the tribal card before the rest followed. Kibaki in 2002 had a majority of Kenyans behind him, irrespective of their ethnic origins.

Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.

In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived.  That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori,  Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.

2007 was truly a war - not an election.

How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.

The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.

[Nowayhaha]

Please dissassociate RV pundit from Ruto . He is a Nyayoist and if you read his posts he so appears to be a Raila supporter. His beliefs and Ideals are those of ODM.

RV Pundit has come out clearly before pointing out he supported Raila im 2005 and 2007. He has pointed out that if Raila wins he is very much okei. Put him where he belongs in ODM and with Raila.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto is what you call Muungwana, He lost 2010 Referendumn . Accepted and became its biggest defender. Tell me amongst 1997,2007, and 2017 has Raila ever accepted election outcome.

Ruto has been on record more than  once saying Kibaki won 2007 elections though he was ODM at that particular time.

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence

MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.

Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices.  We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.

I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.

As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.

If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.

If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.

If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.

Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.

[Nowayhaha]

Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.

  RV  can you do a moas using 2007 registered voters and assuming no rigging from either side see what the numbers might have been.  That excuse of Kibaki closing in on Raila is as lame as Trumps in 2020. I remember watching the results from Rift Valley and Nyanza come in so fast while the PNU areas delayed.  Like I told Robina on last year's US elections, you can't claim victory in a marathon at 5 miles.  I believe there was rigging in 2007 and Kriegler pointed it out but either way Raila was toast once Kalonzo bolted. With about 7 million registered voters Kalonzo took close to  a million and Raila and Kibaki battled for the rest.  Remember Central, upper Eastern and greater Nakuru/ Naivasha went to Kibaki.  From what I later heard the strategy to create an semblance of Raila winning was devised by Nyongo.  Have the opposition figures come in very fast.  The average person then gets the feeling that there is/ was no way to close the gap.  That strategy almost worked for Trump  too.So please do us a Moas at your own time without any bias and see what you come out with.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, he was always like that, even when sober, in 80s he was called VP of Othaya. He is very brilliant but he is not a politician. He is aloof and doesnt like people. He is not natural people person.  That is how he turned super majority to nothing in 2yrs. He became insular.

Kibaki made the biggest mistake to make his homeboys the top hanchos in his regime. Who knew the likes of Chri Murungaru before 2003? Kibaki in 2003 was not mentally fit to be president. Those surrounding him took advantage of the situation and turned a majority of the country against Kibaki. Kikuyus play here the tribal card, but it is them who played the tribal card before the rest followed. Kibaki in 2002 had a majority of Kenyans behind him, irrespective of their ethnic origins.

[Nowayhaha]

Raila who demonized Kibaki during his Presidency is today calling him his Hero. There you have your answer.

Not in RV. In Luo Nyanza definitely. In RV - KANU were supporting Kibaki - my father was PNU - it was pretty hostile - but PNU agents were allowed. Kibaki was unhappy with 2005 - claiming high voter turnout in kalenjin was rigged (NOT TRUE) - so I guess he was prepared to outright.

In Luo Nyanza - Kibaki attempted to use APS as PNU agents - however ODM intelligence got info - and the buses were intercepted by Luos - and some of the APs knived.  That was 1st violence - on 27th or about - in Awendo, most of homabay, migori,  Luos were pulling kikuyu APS and knifing them claiming they had come to rig.

2007 was truly a war - not an election.

How kibaki who won with 65 percent in 2002 - turned himself into a hate object - in 2yrs - is still mindboggling.

The guy is the most obtuse and useless a politician to ever exist.

Well everyone knows PNU electoral agents was not allowed anywhere in RV and Nyanza some even killed. a case of the kettle calling pot black. And I dare repeat
KIBAKI WON FAIR AND SQUARE IN 2007.

[RV Pundit]

You like insulting me. I have never supported Moi or Nyayo. I hated KANU with all my heart growing up.

I see you're trying to box me. I am just me. I am very brutally honest and blunt.

Yes I supported Raila in ODM - then switched to supporting Ruto. I must say I supported Raila while covering my nose. Like many Kalenjin the more we became bitter the more we let that anger makes us wrong choice. Kalonzo was the better choice...sober. Raila is just too mercurial..you just dont know which Raila will turn up tomorrow. Un predictablity is not good character for leadership.

Kalenjin only supported Raila because they were looking for anti-dote of Kibaki and kikuyu regime - someone who would punish GEMA. Most Raila supporters even now - see Raila as the GEMA anti-dote. Now with Raila trying to kiss GEMA - they are jumping to Ruto.

That anti-gema coalition was Nyayo/Moi coalition.


I have followed Ruto politics from 2001 - when I discovered he was such a terrific talent - and I am not surprised by how far he has come.

Please dissassociate RV pundit from Ruto . He is a Nyayoist and if you read his posts he so appears to be a Raila supporter. His beliefs and Ideals are those of ODM.

RV Pundit has come out clearly before pointing out he supported Raila im 2005 and 2007. He has pointed out that if Raila wins he is very much okei. Put him where he belongs in ODM and with Raila.

[RV Pundit]

ODM appointed a committee of elders - led by Ntimama/Gumo/others
They commissioned a study - basically some experts to do MOAS - on possible scenarios.
Conclusion - all of ODM luminaries would beat Kibaki.
But only Kalonzo could beat Kibaki in rig proof margins.
A meeting was held in Kenya Club with all ODM luminaries
Ruto was chosen to deliver the bad news.
Ruto told Raila point blank his win was going to be stolen - he needed to step down.
The reason - As a Luo - there were many areas that were not comfortable to vote for Kihii.
Raila cried. Kajwang wailed. They said Luos were kenyan like everyone.
Ruto told them it is what it is.

After the meeting - Raila and Luos drove to Ruto house in Karen. In Raila camp they knew Kalenjin were critical - while Luhyas would play ball. Kalonzo obviously was just busy measuring drapes for statehouse.

They besieged Ruto until Ruto changed his mind - and told Raila - okay let get it done. It would be difficult but not impossible.

And as predicted - Kibaki planned the rigging knowing he need just 300-400k votes to top Raila.

Even RV agrees . if Raila supported Kalonzo Kibaki would have lost
Same mistake they are doing now If Raila runs Ruto will win and still ODM will claim it was rigged.
About results coming in it was Medias fault . Wherever they wete getting those results only they know. They were not official results.
Ive showcased right here ODM strongholds had miraculous voter turn out.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Beliefs

Beliefs

2017 was rigged at least to get past the 50%+1 mark. Courts stood by Babu and then threw him under the bus hence the protests.

It's all about beliefs followed by claims/allegations



In your mind you'd love to think Babu was hallucinating.

Most definitely.  But someone can't agree with that and continue pushing the narrative that Mt. Kenya is sufficient(let alone necessary) to win, with a straight face.  It's one of those things if someone can't agree with, you should not to take any of their other political hot takes, with that disagreement as a basis, seriously.