Deep state warned not even think stealing a kalenjin vote

[Nowayhaha]

RV I was talking about the 33 regions suggested by PNU vs 18 Regions by ODM during the Naivasha PSC talks.
I think one thing you dont appreciate is unlike talk Politicians can make these things real through lawmaking and constituional processes. Rift Valley as a Province was scrapped just like that during the same Naivasha talks and there was no war. Constituency boumdaries were redrawn and there was no war. So stop the threats. 

I will not rebutt about your agitation of war. You are self incriminating .I wouldn't want to be part of it.

How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.

My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.

You need to read your history.

Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.

How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.

No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.

In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.

Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)

Now the play go to the army.

How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?

Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.

Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved

KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.

Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.

Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).

KDF will resort to defending Nairobi from rebels - I think Nakuru is too much for them.

Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto . Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.


Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs

Human toll in both sides will be millions.

Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu  were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.

Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi  joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on  the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of  people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.

[GeeMail]

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power?  Is the gaslighting getting to you  ? 

IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power.  The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.

You know biggest vulture around UK?

[Nowayhaha]

Vultures are vultures or what do you mean....

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power?  Is the gaslighting getting to you  ? 

IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power.  The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.

You know biggest vulture around UK?

[GeeMail]

Vultures are vultures or what do you mean....

The writing is on the wall. Ruto is winning it. The only worry now as Kadudu rightly points it is the people he will bring around him.
Prayer is that he brings proffesionals of high integrity.
If he brings vultures like Uhuru did with his cronies and family associates. Kenya will end up in a bad placed . After Uhurus second term Kenya requires 10 years of solid recuparating .

Good to read that you are educating your fellow UDA warlord on some simple basics of civility. Now you know the kind of fellows you will be ruling the country with after 2022. Everytime there will be a disagreement they will bring out the rungu to settle scores. You will long for the days of the stone throwers of Kisumu and Kibera.

Does that mean you think Arap Singh will be handed power?  Is the gaslighting getting to you  ? 

IMO rigging is what has kept Baba out of power.  The easiest way for him is to simply not interfere with elections.

You know biggest vulture around UK?

Vulture around UK has been around. Two bids of same feather.

[RV Pundit]

RV I was talking about the 33 regions suggested by PNU vs 18 Regions by ODM during the Naivasha PSC talks.
I think one thing you dont appreciate is unlike talk Politicians can make these things real through lawmaking and constituional processes. Rift Valley as a Province was scrapped just like that during the same Naivasha talks and there was no war. Constituency boumdaries were redrawn and there was no war. So stop the threats. 

I will not rebutt about your agitation of war. You are self incriminating .I wouldn't want to be part of it.

How will that help. Once civil war has started - even Garang - a mere conolel took off - few southern sudanese soldiers - and fought Sudan.

My friend - you really got jokes - Kenyatta took Nyandarua from Rift Valley - but if you dare take Nakuru or Laikipia - you will start a big war.

You need to read your history.

Anyway so let again help you. If Kalenjin decides that it's going to war. They will immediately mobilize the warrior class - I mean in matters of hours - warriors will have removed their clothes - wore shuka - got weapons - and will be assembling.

How many warriors are those -- mm - I think 2 million out of 6.5M kalenjin - is possible.

No other tribe in Kenya can do the same - they rest can assemble gangs - and will struggle to even get 10,000. These will be million half-trained warriors. All you need is to give them a few guns - few ex-military -or ex-police - and in 2 days maximum - they will defeat Kenya Police/GSU/APs like happened in 2007.

In fact the police will collapse in day one - because of many IDPS - that will be camping all over. They will collapse without any much fight.

Who will Kalenjin attack - I bet they will go for seccession (when Kibaki attempted to have Moi charged- Kalenjin threaten to secede) or an armed struggle to restor democracy in Nairobi (very likely if Hustler Revolution get national buyin in war)

Now the play go to the army.

How do Uhuru/Raila - let assume respond when police fails?

Obviously they will try to bring in the big guns - and will start maybe with ground troops - beating and looting - and it's at that point that Kalenjin soldiers will munity - grab as many weapons as they can - drive as many tanks as they will - and the war proper will start.

Now telling me how broke Kenya can sustain warfare - with 2 million warriors - few thousands guns - and a few military men providing guidance. Maybe 1m or more refugees if more tribes are involved

KDF will resort to throwing bombs - and doing Ethiopia type genocide or massacres. If they attempt ground troops - they will be massacred at night - for kalenjin are very adept in night battles.

Terrain wise - kalenjin land straddle rift valley - lots of hills, forests and such places - to hide - and snipe.

Meanwhile Western Kenya will be in blockade - only those who can fly - will go to Nairobi (Kenya).

KDF will resort to defending Nairobi from rebels - I think Nakuru is too much for them.

Kalenjin warriors will storm Nairobi - and Install Ruto . Ruto I doubt will stay in Kenya if such war starts - he will go to exile - in friendly Africa country like Uganda - so Ocampo and company can know he has NO PLAY in Kalenjin war machine.


Kalenjin will then rule kenya for the next 100 yrs

Human toll in both sides will be millions.

Do you have the tribal break down of Police and Army ?
Nasa tried to incite security forces during 2017 elections only to realise its not easy to drag them into taking political sides.
In 2007 P.E.V. the policemen arrested for extra Judicial killings in Kisumu  were from Rift Valley same tribe who supported Raila.

Now about the origin of the provinces .Its well known that its the colonial master who formed them to protect their farms and interests. Rift Valley where they had farms wss made into a big province and where they sensed there was pockets they put them ss small provinces. Martha Karua during 2010 Constituional talks in Naivasha agitated for Provincial Boundaries to be relooked and and have Districts like Nakuru, Laikipia Meru Embu Tharaka Nithi  joined together with Former Central province which agreed upon , However the idea was dropped after Uhuru and Ruto won to remove regional Government.
Now we have discussed the consequences of war many times and how it can impact on  the Minority. I dont want to go there better brimg up the former threads instead of creating a new violence thread every week.
In 2007 people were evicted in Kalenjin dominated counties ,majority of  people lost lives in opposition stronghold from police shootings.

No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand

[Nowayhaha]

One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .

Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.

No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand

[RV Pundit]

One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .

Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.

No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand

I really pity you.Kenya old constitution had majimbo and name it based on old province.British hired a surveyor from Manchester to head commission on boundaries..the results Kenya wanted district to respect old tribal borders and province to reflect tribal alliance..kipsigis were in nyanza... kipsigis express the desire to join rest of kalenjin in rift valley..this was granted..kericho was moved from nyanza to rift valley..all was settled.. however when Kenyatta and luos who lost in Lancaster...set out to undo everything they lost in Lancaster uk.They killed majimbo.Then jomo unhappy that central was just three district of kiambu,nyeri and muranga..took kirinyanga from embu eastern..split Nakuru to two..took Nyandarua to central..luos also complained about that SONY was big..jaramogi split it two..migori and homabay.During Moi regime gusii was split into nyamira, kakamega into vihiga, kericho to bomet, Meru to create tharaka, machakos to create Makueni.I believe Kenya is okay now except few unhappy tribes .sabaot in bungoma..kuria in migori..etc.We need to respect our tribal heritage and avoid tribal wars.These are weighty issues..kikuyus classifying Nakuru and laukipia mt Kenya is inciting war...that is why lee is jobless before any vote is cast...how can Nakuru become Mt kenya..how is that even remotely possible ..it pure incitement to kalenjin and maasai.its like saying muranga is ukambani.Then when I help here you accuse me of incitement..while lee is doing it

[Nowayhaha]

You are now speaking like a Colonialist. Its very clear Mzungu settler  was looking for his own interests during colonial times .He teamed up with KADU team to root for Federal system of Governance . Thats how we ended up with the provinces and a Majimbo form of Government .

Currently we dont have Provinces mainly thanks to Both Rutos . Also Regional Governments idea eas thrown out. ODM wanted to use regional government to check the National Government.
Ruto joined hands with Uhuru and scrapped Provinces and threw away the idea of 3 Tier government.If ODM idea had gone through The Kikuyu dominated Nakuru snd Laikipia counties would have found themselves at the mercy of Kalenjins in that regional Government.
This was amongst the last items to be negotiated for.

One thing for sure Rift Valley and the other Provinces were scrapped and ODM blamed Ruto and thought they would use it as a weapon to fight Ruto poliically among Kipsigis.
The argument that ODM were using is that Kipsigis now will be in three Counties and minority in Narok.
The point is if Politicians decide to redraw borders they can do it through lawmaking and constituional means and there will be no war .

Constituencies borders were altered by introducing more constituencies from 210 to 290. Similarly its an exercise IEBC should have done by now and there will never be war as long as done in accordance with the Constituion. War mongers will be arrested.
Stop misleading people that provinces were created by Mzungu during Colonial times as Kenyans wanted them that way. Collonial master created them to safeguard their interests and farms.

No boundaries were redrawn the stalemate was resolved by reverting to district created principally by 1962 commission by mzungu that created the 8 province and 42 district largely along tribal borders as Kenyans wanted it that way.. Kenyatta added I think kirinyanga, Nyandarua, homabay..moi added nyamira,bomet, tharaka and Makueni..kibaki were rejected because they were illegal and absurd..I think they are perfect..they are reflect tribal borders.As for inciting war..my friend my analysis and prediction of all things social economic and political will never amount to a crime.Go arrest Farah Maalim as you bury your head in the sand

I really pity you.Kenya old constitution had majimbo and name it based on old province.British hired a surveyor from Manchester to head commission on boundaries..the results Kenya wanted district to respect old tribal borders and province to reflect tribal alliance..kipsigis were in nyanza... kipsigis express the desire to join rest of kalenjin in rift valley..this was granted..kericho was moved from nyanza to rift valley..all was settled.. however when Kenyatta and luos who lost in Lancaster...set out to undo everything they lost in Lancaster uk.They killed majimbo.Then jomo unhappy that central was just three district of kiambu,nyeri and muranga..took kirinyanga from embu eastern..split Nakuru to two..took Nyandarua to central..luos also complained about that SONY was big..jaramogi split it two..migori and homabay.During Moi regime gusii was split into nyamira, kakamega into vihiga, kericho to bomet, Meru to create tharaka, machakos to create Makueni.I believe Kenya is okay now except few unhappy tribes .sabaot in bungoma..kuria in migori..etc.We need to respect our tribal heritage and avoid tribal wars.These are weighty issues..kikuyus classifying Nakuru and laukipia mt Kenya is inciting war...that is why lee is jobless before any vote is cast...how can Nakuru become Mt kenya..how is that even remotely possible ..it pure incitement to kalenjin and maasai.its like saying muranga is ukambani.Then when I help here you accuse me of incitement..while lee is doing it

[RV Pundit]

Regional or province I belief is useless..if we are democratic..it only useful if you need alliance politically.I believe in Kenya real province is tribal nations.. kalenjin..kamba.. kikuyu..it easy said  done until you get to Nairobi or Nakuru.. otherwise I would recognize tribal nations..maybe 10 regions and few comspolitan.Not worthy.Counties are working.But don't think in war situations people won't bring such issues as real issues..land grievances is always buried in shallow grave

[vooke]

How do you plan to keep Ruto out of the ballot? You're more worried that RV worriers.

You see we have been throught this kind of ritual before - in 2007 - together with RVs we would warn - then folks here would dismiss - then next day when shiet goes down - then story would change - saying Ruto is Kabuga - ohoo dead man walking - ohoo kalenjin are savages. Yet we had warned them. Then they would say ohoo Mungiki will go down there and finish the warrios - we tell them impossible - but they never listen.

People need to listen and listen well. Like Farah said - you do not take war to Mogadishu or Kabul or Tigray - and  claim you will emerge victorious. The same with kalenjin nation. Kalenjin are primarly a martial community. They are at home in war.

Please ask how the KDF+GSU+APS are doing in Laikipia now - Nothing. Zero arrest. Zero dead Pokot. Zero arrested Pokot. Meanwhile Pokots have sneaked in once in a while - killed and stolen cattle right at the nose of multi-agency force - now imagine entire kalenin rising in all it's many corners. Boss...the damage in a single day alone will be massive...2007 was just two fronts - mostly kikuyu/gusii - if they open war on all fronts - we are talking humanitarian crisis of maybe 2 milllion internal refugees in 24hours.

Whatever you do - mr deep state poodle - do not provoke kalenjin nation into a war - unless you do not love this country.

Last time it took international mediation to stem a civil strife. The warriors do not throw stones for a day or two - they go to war. With poison arrows - the police are useless. With a few guns - KDF are also useless. If KDF goes in big - chance of them splitting is high.

The plan is to keep Ruto off the ballot so there's no need to steal his votes.

Whoever loses will of course whine about rigging as usual, rush to court, and there will be skirmishes here and there but nothing big.

RV worriers are clearly worried

[RV Pundit]

I think you listen to Atwoli too much hapo Butere. Ruto will be eligible to run..unless you plan to declare him bankrupt or mad...I dont see how you can jail him and have him exhaust all appeals and review. If Ruto run as DPORk while indicted by ICC...what will stop him in 2022.

Dont listen to Atwoli - the old man is an idiot - unless you're one too.

If you want to test Kalenjin resolve and war readiness....try any time. If Sabaot - a very tiny kalenjin subtribe - that is even derided by kalenjin proper as being mixed with luhyas - made GSU/APs totally useless- and they had to call KDF - you do not want to try Kalenjin proper. Tiny pokots - GSU/APs cannot handle it - KDF have to step in.

Pokot are not the toughest of Kalenjin. They just have guns. Otherwise they are very few numbers to be effective. If you give Kipsigis and Nandis guns - out of sheer number - they will make Pokot sing. Nandi use to make Pokot sing before British arrived. Nandi alone kept British - his entire troop from Uganda and all neigberhouring tribes busy for 15yrs - in longest resistance in East Africa - and the Mzungu went to great lengths to stop Kipsigis from aligning with Nandis in that war - otherwise it would have been impossible.

Dont ask for war you cannot win. Kalenjin have been running kenya warfar since 1850 - when they overtook Maasai.

Ask kikuyus - they have pulled all their cards - but once Kalenjin go to war - it serious business. I have seen it myself. You need to understand that Kalenjin will respond in military manner in great numbers in few hours when a war cry is declared. As kalenjin population increase...the number of warriors they can raise has also increased. If you can take on 2 million fairly trained armed youths fighting in a war - then go for it. Do not expect police force and military whose combined number is less than 100K to do miracles.

As Farah Maalim say - find a way to beat Ruto in the most fair and credible manner - anything else mean you do not like Kenya. For if you like Kenya - you wont want to incite Kalenjin nation to war. 2007 will look like child play - number of jobless youths now is greater - and th candidate is kalenjin. The motivation could not be greater.

Otherwise this same ritual - we had in 2007 - where we warned Kibaki here online - he didnt listen - 500k people evicted in 3 days - and many properties and lives lost - and he had to call Annan. Then next few years we wake up to Kalenjin were organized - the war was pre-planned - ohoo take Ruto to ICC. When we tell them - no kalejin were not organized or pre-planned - they deny it. In 92 - we had some nonsense about Korea imported arrows and private militia trained by Biwott. While anyone with basic knowledge of kalenjin understand its martial community that military rise depending on the threat to defend or attack in shortest possible time in an organized manner...they prepare for such eventuality through annual boys conversion to warriors...where  the basics of war are drilled.

[Wa Njambi]

I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being  demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.

Once RV start the entire region including as far South Sudan/Congo/Uganda will be plunged into chaos. Refer to 2007. It also likely that class war will erupt in Mt kenya as they will see their elite as the main cause of the civil war and their sufferings. So expect Mois, Kenyattas and likes properties to be destroyed. I dont know how places like Coast and Northern Kenya will react.

Ultimately I see tribal clashes becoming a civil war. Civil war means Army and Police breaking up into say Pro-Ruto (hustler) and Pro-Gov.

Once that happen Kenya is history. I believe in 2007 - the police in Nakuru divided into ODM versus PNU - with both side exchanging fire - and Kibaki had to deploy KDF from Lanet barracks. This is like end game play (the last ace on gov cards).

Thankfully he also called Annan - for peace talks - because KDF cannot handle such a wide conflict - for more than two weeks - before they also split - as Kalenjin in KDF will not witnesses maiming of their people - before they start shooting their colleague.

Kibaki really struggle in 2007 - shuffling police and army based on tribes - trying to send ODM leaning ones to deep Northern Kenya - trying to protect armoury.

It get very dicey very easily in a very tribal country like kenya.

Do not bet on corrupt and cowardly police. That everyone knows.

KDF - is 50-50 - they either take power as united force or they split

Regionally Museveni has no time for Raila - and will promptly aid such a civil war.

Kalenjin will take about 24hours to render Kenya Police useless - if they erupt from all corners with arms and block all entry to RV - the police will be overwhelmed. They will take about a week to render KDF useless.

7M people with possibly 2-3 million active warriors with basic rudimentary training - cannot be arraigned against 40K police and 25K KDF. It's an impossible war.

At that point it really depend - on how quickly Kalenjin will upgrade to guns - and that can easily be arraigned by someone like Museveni - and it become full blown civil war - that kenya will take 10yrs to recover from - if it doesnt split into many countries.

Big question, is Mt Kenya ready to die for Ruto?
Otherwise apart form RV, there will be no violence unless Ruto plunge the country into chaos like in RSA after the Jacob Zuma arrest. Mind you as a big "investor" in the country he will be one of the biggest loosers.

[RV Pundit]

Even with devolution - PORK still big business in Kenya. What is important is for Uhuru to assist IEBC to hold the most fair, credible and clean election. If there any any issues - for Koome and judiciary to fix them. If NASA loses - they will try the usual - Kondele or Kibra stones thrown - Raila sworn. If Ruto loses unfairly - Kalenjin nation will rise - and declare war. What follows will pretty much depend - on whether the war become localized in RV or catches fire nationally. In any case even war in RV will be national and regional in character for it almost a center of kenya.

This is not an election to play games. Unless you do not love kenya.

So far apart from initial misuse of curfew rules to block Ruto - I see everything is going on well. Ruto team are able to campaign freely. Raila team are also campaigning freely. Matiangi-Kibicho have redericted their enegeries where it most needed - in cattle rustling and terrorism - not in misusing police to block political rallies.

IEBC also have the support - all commissioners in, ballot tender given, technology providers I dont know, mass registration going on - ODM have accepted to win or lose - we are doing great on that front.

Judiciary is also doing very well - as independent arbiter. Even DPP has woken up from Kinoti DCI takeover. Security wise - we have poodle kamba guy as police head and polical hack Kinoti being misused to threaten and intimidate leaders - those are the biggest risk I see in Kenya.

So I would say we are on the right track but the risk are there....

Allow all candidates to freely campaign. Avoid any pre-election violence by say stonning Ruto - especially if you are community neighbouring Kalenjin ( Luos, Luhyas, Gusii, Kikuyus)...Nyachae attacking Ruto with bows and arrows in 2007 sucked Gusii in a war they should not have been part of. Allow IEBCs to do their job. Allow parties to get their agents and observers to cross-check IEBC.

If all that is done - Kenya will be Marwa! Whether Ruto or Raila wins or Lose. Kalenjin knows Ruto is very young....so they will take his loss with stride...only if the loss is fair and square.

I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being  demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.

[vooke]

Even with devolution - PORK still big business in Kenya. What is important is for Uhuru to assist IEBC to hold the most fair, credible and clean election. If there any any issues - for Koome and judiciary to fix them. If NASA loses - they will try the usual - Kondele or Kibra stones thrown - Raila sworn. If Ruto loses unfairly - Kalenjin nation will rise - and declare war. What follows will pretty much depend - on whether the war become localized in RV or catches fire nationally. In any case even war in RV will be national and regional in character for it almost a center of kenya.

This is not an election to play games. Unless you do not love kenya.

So far apart from initial misuse of curfew rules to block Ruto - I see everything is going on well. Ruto team are able to campaign freely. Raila team are also campaigning freely. Matiangi-Kibicho have redericted their enegeries where it most needed - in cattle rustling and terrorism - not in misusing police to block political rallies.

IEBC also have the support - all commissioners in, ballot tender given, technology providers I dont know, mass registration going on - ODM have accepted to win or lose - we are doing great on that front.

Judiciary is also doing very well - as independent arbiter. Even DPP has woken up from Kinoti DCI takeover. Security wise - we have poodle kamba guy as police head and polical hack Kinoti being misused to threaten and intimidate leaders - those are the biggest risk I see in Kenya.

So I would say we are on the right track but the risk are there....

Allow all candidates to freely campaign. Avoid any pre-election violence by say stonning Ruto - especially if you are community neighbouring Kalenjin ( Luos, Luhyas, Gusii, Kikuyus)...Nyachae attacking Ruto with bows and arrows in 2007 sucked Gusii in a war they should not have been part of. Allow IEBCs to do their job. Allow parties to get their agents and observers to cross-check IEBC.

If all that is done - Kenya will be Marwa! Whether Ruto or Raila wins or Lose. Kalenjin knows Ruto is very young....so they will take his loss with stride...only if the loss is fair and square.

I doubt that 254 would go that direction. We have check n Balance in place. Plus the presidency is slowly but surely being  demystified. I would like to see a President Ruto. But we'll be fine too if Baba get's elected - and he is gaining traction.

[vooke]

Not impressed

2007 PEV was largely against diasporans deep inside Kalenjin lands. 1992 and 97 too. Kalenjins worriers are only good at decimating pockets of madoadoa

I think you listen to Atwoli too much hapo Butere. Ruto will be eligible to run..unless you plan to declare him bankrupt or mad...I dont see how you can jail him and have him exhaust all appeals and review. If Ruto run as DPORk while indicted by ICC...what will stop him in 2022.

Dont listen to Atwoli - the old man is an idiot - unless you're one too.

If you want to test Kalenjin resolve and war readiness....try any time. If Sabaot - a very tiny kalenjin subtribe - that is even derided by kalenjin proper as being mixed with luhyas - made GSU/APs totally useless- and they had to call KDF - you do not want to try Kalenjin proper. Tiny pokots - GSU/APs cannot handle it - KDF have to step in.

Pokot are not the toughest of Kalenjin. They just have guns. Otherwise they are very few numbers to be effective. If you give Kipsigis and Nandis guns - out of sheer number - they will make Pokot sing. Nandi use to make Pokot sing before British arrived. Nandi alone kept British - his entire troop from Uganda and all neigberhouring tribes busy for 15yrs - in longest resistance in East Africa - and the Mzungu went to great lengths to stop Kipsigis from aligning with Nandis in that war - otherwise it would have been impossible.

Dont ask for war you cannot win. Kalenjin have been running kenya warfar since 1850 - when they overtook Maasai.

Ask kikuyus - they have pulled all their cards - but once Kalenjin go to war - it serious business. I have seen it myself. You need to understand that Kalenjin will respond in military manner in great numbers in few hours when a war cry is declared. As kalenjin population increase...the number of warriors they can raise has also increased. If you can take on 2 million fairly trained armed youths fighting in a war - then go for it. Do not expect police force and military whose combined number is less than 100K to do miracles.

As Farah Maalim say - find a way to beat Ruto in the most fair and credible manner - anything else mean you do not like Kenya. For if you like Kenya - you wont want to incite Kalenjin nation to war. 2007 will look like child play - number of jobless youths now is greater - and th candidate is kalenjin. The motivation could not be greater.

Otherwise this same ritual - we had in 2007 - where we warned Kibaki here online - he didnt listen - 500k people evicted in 3 days - and many properties and lives lost - and he had to call Annan. Then next few years we wake up to Kalenjin were organized - the war was pre-planned - ohoo take Ruto to ICC. When we tell them - no kalejin were not organized or pre-planned - they deny it. In 92 - we had some nonsense about Korea imported arrows and private militia trained by Biwott. While anyone with basic knowledge of kalenjin understand its martial community that military rise depending on the threat to defend or attack in shortest possible time in an organized manner...they prepare for such eventuality through annual boys conversion to warriors...where  the basics of war are drilled.

[RV Pundit]

MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.

Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices.  We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.

I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.

As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.

If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.

If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.

If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.

Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.

[Fairandbalanced]

[RV Pundit]

People already died in Muranga from politics. Please sometime listen to miserable self. You sound ridicilous almost daily - eti BBI Uhuru wanted sijui nini.

Uhuru kieleweke - went to a slum in thika - paid few young men to go and attempt to block Ruto attending the church - violence that included tear gasing the church happened - and non locals boys were easily identified and killed - many others injured as they escaped back to thika.

[vooke]

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence

MOAS is my opinion - it's not a fact.

Fairness in election - starts now. All candidates should be allowed to campaign freely. We know UDA.Ruto has been subjected to violence either by police or goons supported by polices.  We saw it in Kibra, Matungu, Gusii, Muranga (leading to deaths) and many areas.

I am happy that has ended. Ruto has for the last two months campaigned freely and fairly. If Deep States do not get scared - and allow Ruto to freely sell his policies - and he loses - then he or kalenjin cannot claim rigging.

As we go through the electioneering calender - IEBC should be allowed to do it's job - and any violation - nipped in the bud.

If rigging happen on the voting day - Ruto has to gather evidence - his agents should be allowed in every polling station - observers the same.

If there are any malpractises - Koome should listen to evidence - do the needful.

If this is done - yes no violence will occur. Kalenjin will wait for another opportunity.

Like I have said - Kalenjin will only go to war if there is good reason to do so.

[RV Pundit]

2007 was brazen rigging. Observers saw it. Media broadcasted it live. Everyone saw Kibaki close huge margin of nearly a million vote - by fiddling with figures from his strongholds. It was on your face rigging. Like Museveni rigged last year. He normally rig small small but this time he totally went overboard.

In 2022 it depends - if their semblance of free, fair and credible elections - Ruto UDA complain - they will have to present evidence - to supreme court and the media.

If your deep state become desperate - and start playing monkeys games brazenly - then people will not even wait for supreme court - before responding.

So best way to stop war is do conduct the fairest, cleanest, most credible election possible. But you're talking about sijui stopping Ruto sijui with what?

This election doesnt have any margin of errors or any room for monkey games unless you want to become refugee.

You don't get it; it's claims/beliefs of unfairness that triggers masses and not necessarily unfairness.

You believe 2007 was stolen and hence the Outrage & PEV warranted. You believe 2017 was fair so, why did we have violence?

Once again, it is not unfairness but beliefs/claims of unfairness.

If Ruto loses fairly but still claims rigging, there'd be fickle pockets of violence amongst RV worriers.  If he is rigged out but holds his peace there'd be no violence