The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[RV Pundit]

Generally Mizani are good - but I disagree in few areas
This was conducted in May-June - but Ukambani is strongly Azimio - so nothing much will change

Raila emerges to be the most popular presidential candidate commanding the lead with 47.5%. William Ruto comes second place with 46.6%.
Based on Mizani's previous National Polls, this indicates an  upward trajectory for Raila and downward trend for Ruto.#MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/HZN5YtaZaT

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Regional or provincial breakdown

Presidential popularity ranking  per region.#MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/pp4xGSulPp

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

[RV Pundit]

According to Mizani - battle grounds are fewer - just Turkana, Tranzia and Tana River.

Presidential candidates strongholds counties and battlegrounds. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/K19ebIL0A3

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Mizani County running

Presidential popularity ranking per county in regions. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/aWYTTvAdOv

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

Presidential Ranking in Coast Region. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/AUAw1FikwJ

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

Presidential Ranking in Western Region. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/KeHZfP2Bk3

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

Presidential Ranking in Rift Valley Region. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/D4Ii7UL9DU

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

Presidential Ranking in Mt.Kenya Region. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/JexJ76oj4l

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

/photo/1

[RV Pundit]

Presidential Ranking in North Eastern Region. #MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/sM9v3lLoCj

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

[Tactician]

Yet another poll shows rao leading. Radio Africa puts rao at 44pc to wsr 37pc.

While we can argue about percentages, of note is that all polls show rao leading or tied with wsr. Wsr does not lead in any poll in the last one month.

Momentum. And still 2 more months. Expect some politicians to realign in the coming weeks as the clouds clear up.

[RV Pundit]

SMS poll I saw has the most crappy data I have seen so far.
No wonder they have such serious trust issues.
Where do you see re-alignment happening?

Yet another poll shows rao leading. Radio Africa puts rao at 44pc to wsr 37pc.

While we can argue about percentages, of note is that all polls show rao leading or tied with wsr. Wsr does not lead in any poll in the last one month.

Momentum. And still 2 more months. Expect some politicians to realign in the coming weeks as the clouds clear up.

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa June Poll

Radio Africa conducted its SMS poll on June 8 and 9 with a 1.5 percent margin of error from 4,780 respondents from all 47 counties.

[RV Pundit]

Their breakdown

Wajackoyah has momentum - no doubt about that - whether he can sustain it - is something else- but he is threatening to pass 1% mark.

It totally different from Infotrak and Mizani...when it comes to regional breakdown.

[Nowayhaha]

How you people are able to believe these polls is matter of study.
Raila going Toe to Toe with Ruto in Rift Valley is beyond naiveness...

Their breakdown

Wajackoyah has momentum - no doubt about that - whether he can sustain it - is something else- but he is threatening to pass 1% mark.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah some of them are completely crazy to have any probative value. This one is such. And when they dont share data of counties - then it become difficult to know what South or North Rift means?

Anyway I think Mizani has formulae to it's madness - and is one that has most probative value.
If you work on regression function that + or - 13 minus on Mizani - you can get somewhere.
Next is Tiffa.

How you people are able to believe these polls is matter of study.
Raila going Toe to Toe with Ruto in Rift Valley is beyond naiveness..

[Tactician]

The numbers we can argue back and forth. The question is: how comes all these polls are giving us the same feedback ie rao has caught up with wsr and is at best leading or at worst equal?? Or are they all wrong or conspiring?

Or is it a case akin to Trump Clinton 2016 when the polls all got it wrong? Even if they are all wrong, as to the winner, why are they all moving  in tandem in one direction as compared to 6months ago?

The trend is your friend.

[Tactician]

Realignments, if the gap continues to grow, will likely happen in areas where residents fear being in opposition. NEP especially. Also mt kenya where the perception is strong that wsr is winning and where there are multiple candidates on different parties ie there is no homegrown party.

I dont think realignments will be major as main coalition candidates are already locked in having done nominations...but the few that would happen would tilt perception as we hit home stretch

SMS poll I saw has the most crappy data I have seen so far.
No wonder they have such serious trust issues.
Where do you see re-alignment happening?

Yet another poll shows rao leading. Radio Africa puts rao at 44pc to wsr 37pc.

While we can argue about percentages, of note is that all polls show rao leading or tied with wsr. Wsr does not lead in any poll in the last one month.

Momentum. And still 2 more months. Expect some politicians to realign in the coming weeks as the clouds clear up.

[RV Pundit]

The polls are or were expected to tighten as it became clear that we have contest btw Raila and Ruto. I dont see any of that as unexpected. Now what momentum are you talking about? Martha? Kalonzo going back to Raila?

You see every election - I can make prediction almost a year or at least six month to election - because all you need to know is the final candidate -  then you can calculate the winner. It's been 7 percent differnce in 2013 - and 10 percent in 2017. Like now opinion polls most eventually settled on TOO close to call - some like propaganda wing of Raila infotrak will give Raila 60 percent

We now have the final candidates - it the usual Raila and the new Ruto.

The only momentum I see now is this new Wajackoyah - who has two weeks like Martha Momentum that will fizzle out. It has no foundation or grounding to last longer than that.

The numbers we can argue back and forth. The question is: how comes all these polls are giving us the same feedback ie rao has caught up with wsr and is at best leading or at worst equal?? Or are they all wrong or conspiring?

Or is it a case akin to Trump Clinton 2016 when the polls all got it wrong? Even if they are all wrong, as to the winner, why are they all moving  in tandem in one direction as compared to 6months ago?

The trend is your friend.

[RV Pundit]

The problem - nobody seriously take opinion polls in kenya - because they almost always been wrong.
This is not the US or UK. This is kenya.
Some of the polls are obviously created in bid to manufacture fake momentum.
Now what do people do - they do their own MOASS - and they decide where to go.
If Uhuru had a convincing story - of winning power - he would convince his MP Moses Kuria - and majority of Mt kenya.
As long as he cannot convince them - then he is going nowhere.
When it come to 50-50 communities - with very low numbers - dont worry about those - even if you get 100 percent - they ammount to nothing.
Each clan there has made their move - and it's usual story of 50-50 - with few twists and turns.

So back to momentum....proper momentum has to be backed by solid tribal backing..

The last two months
1) We  have Karua - seem she had Jubilee orphans excited for a week but now is back to Kabando wa Kabando and Bonny :)Mwangi
2) We have Kalonzo - this big move for Raila to get back to the game.
3) We have Mutua and Kingi moving from Azimio. Mutua is pretty hopeless but Kingi has ability to tip the scales - it could the inflection point for Ruto in coast.
4) We have Muturi, Kabogos and Kurias joining KK fully - coupled with Gachagua and Uhuru refusing to engage - this has firmed Ruto numbers in Mt kenya.

Who is still left out there - maybe Jimmy Wanjigi, Wairia and the 50 others who failed to get nod to run for PORK.

Let see if there is going to be any momentum from there.

Right now we have Wajackoyah running the momentum for next two weeks. Martha momentum ended - and if opinion polls are picking it - they are picking lagging - not leading indicators.

Realignments, if the gap continues to grow, will likely happen in areas where residents fear being in opposition. NEP especially. Also mt kenya where the perception is strong that wsr is winning and where there are multiple candidates on different parties ie there is no homegrown party.

I dont think realignments will be major as main coalition candidates are already locked in having done nominations...but the few that would happen would tilt perception as we hit home stretch

[Tactician]

Tightening of polls, i agree, happens all the time as election day approaches and as candidates become clear.

What we have here is not just tightening (gap btn no 1 and 2 narrowing).

What we have is a reversal of the order of preferred candidate with the previous no 2 having overtaken no 1. Across all polls in the last month. Very different from tightening.

As to what has caused the reversal, again we can argue whether it is karua, gachagua, mdvd etc. But it doesnt change the fact that polls have reversed, not tightened.

The polls are or were expected to tighten as it became clear that we have contest btw Raila and Ruto. I dont see any of that as unexpected. Now what momentum are you talking about? Martha? Kalonzo going back to Raila?

You see every election - I can make prediction almost a year or at least six month to election - because all you need to know is the final candidate -  then you can calculate the winner. It's been 7 percent differnce in 2013 - and 10 percent in 2017. Like now opinion polls most eventually settled on TOO close to call - some like propaganda wing of Raila infotrak will give Raila 60 percent

We now have the final candidates - it the usual Raila and the new Ruto.

The only momentum I see now is this new Wajackoyah - who has two weeks like Martha Momentum that will fizzle out. It has no foundation or grounding to last longer than that.

The numbers we can argue back and forth. The question is: how comes all these polls are giving us the same feedback ie rao has caught up with wsr and is at best leading or at worst equal?? Or are they all wrong or conspiring?

Or is it a case akin to Trump Clinton 2016 when the polls all got it wrong? Even if they are all wrong, as to the winner, why are they all moving  in tandem in one direction as compared to 6months ago?

The trend is your friend.

[RV Pundit]

Okay lets even give the highest probative value to these opinion polls;
Show me how they have reversed.

I think you're trying to use data to believe your own theory

Let start with Radio Africa
Radio Africa.
March - Raila had 47 percent - Ruto had 43 percent

Move to April - Ruto lead 45 - 41


Move to May - Ruto 43 - Raila 41


And now got june - Ruto drop 38 - and Raila 45.

Tightening of polls, i agree, happens all the time as election day approaches and as candidates become clear.

What we have here is not just tightening (gap btn no 1 and 2 narrowing).

What we have is a reversal of the order of preferred candidate with the previous no 2 having overtaken no 1. Across all polls in the last month. Very different from tightening.

As to what has caused the reversal, again we can argue whether it is karua, gachagua, mdvd etc. But it doesnt change the fact that polls have reversed, not tightened.

[RV Pundit]

This better graph for Radio Africa.

[Tactician]

Great. The graph shows upto April. Now show upto June. Seven points difference

This better graph for Radio Africa.

[Tactician]

Reversal is right there in June. Rao ahead.

Okay lets even give the highest probative value to these opinion polls;
Show me how they have reversed.

I think you're trying to use data to believe your own theory

Let start with Radio Africa
Radio Africa.
March - Raila had 47 percent - Ruto had 43 percent

Move to April - Ruto lead 45 - 41


Move to May - Ruto 43 - Raila 41


And now got june - Ruto drop 38 - and Raila 45.

Tightening of polls, i agree, happens all the time as election day approaches and as candidates become clear.

What we have here is not just tightening (gap btn no 1 and 2 narrowing).

What we have is a reversal of the order of preferred candidate with the previous no 2 having overtaken no 1. Across all polls in the last month. Very different from tightening.

As to what has caused the reversal, again we can argue whether it is karua, gachagua, mdvd etc. But it doesnt change the fact that polls have reversed, not tightened.