Author Topic: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread. (Read 85675 times)

RV Pundit · « **Reply #141 on:** February 14, 2022, 12:26:47 PM »

Raila struggles at the center of the country - and is competitive in the edges

RV Pundit · « **Reply #142 on:** February 16, 2022, 08:49:58 PM »

Not at lot of changes since last poll - big improvement in north rift by 14, NEP 7 percent - Raila gains only 1.5 percent in Mt kenya and - curiously Ruto numbers have dropped in western and so has maDVD - while Raila increased by 5 percent to 45 percent - possible massaging of figures - as sound incredulous. Kalonzo & maDVD figures remain so low to be believable. Ruto has a slight edge in Nairobi - I think hustling message really resonate with urban population more than rural areas..and Raila is in for a big suprise.

Invalid Tweet ID

RV Pundit · « **Reply #143 on:** February 17, 2022, 01:34:00 PM »

TIFA poll - Tom's normally more credible.

It appears the polls are yet to tighten? Ruto at 38 with Raila at 27 - same 11 percent gap as Radio Africa

Latest Tifa poll shows Ruto leads as preferred presidential candidate at 38% followed by Raila at 27%; Mudavadi and Kenneth preferred running mates for the two respectively pic.twitter.com/v0jGoR7hVB
— NTV Kenya (@ntvkenya) February 17, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #144 on:** February 17, 2022, 01:35:12 PM »

More TIFA polls - why do people like Waiguru

Perceived ‘Best’ Running-Mates from Mt Kenya Region

#TIFA2022ElectionsPolls pic.twitter.com/WnkObsVvFH
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) February 17, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #145 on:** February 17, 2022, 01:38:41 PM »

More TIFA - Raila has gained 5 percent from 23 - Ruto stuck in 38-39 - it appears Raila is gaining from undecided/refused to answer.

Uhuru choice of Raila is now more apparent

Presidential candidate choice: Kenyan's and Uhuru's

65% of Kenya today think that Uhuru’s perceived preferred successor is @RailaOdinga

#TIFA2022ElectionsPolls pic.twitter.com/5qHtRLIiGV
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) February 17, 2022

Political Party Alignment!

UDA is the most popular political party in five out of nine zones, though it achieves clear majority status only in Central Rift (60%). #TIFA2022ElectionsPolls pic.twitter.com/QZlBJWoDqN
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) February 17, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #146 on:** February 17, 2022, 06:27:24 PM »

MOAS mini-update; It appears now that Kalonzo might be 50-50 in Azimio and Kenya Kwanza.

Kenya Kwanza hints at bagging Kalonzo.
http://www.pd.co.ke/news/kenya-kwanza-bigwigs-hint-at-bagging-kalonzo-backing-113949/

We already factored what would happen if he join Raila - Raila would move to 46 percent.

If he joins Ruto - Ruto immediately move to 60 percent - and could go as high as nearly 63 percent - with nearly 10 Million votes

He would beat by 4 million votes...an overwhelming win like NARC 2002 dog beating that Project Uhuru received.

   Percentage   Total votes
William Ruto   62   9,693,314
Raila Odinga   37   5,746,951
Others   1   155,962
Turn out   74
GAP      3,946,363

RV Pundit · « **Reply #147 on:** February 18, 2022, 03:45:37 PM »

TIFA has analyzed past turnout.

#TrendsInsights Historical voter turn-out in Kenya. What will it be in 2022? pic.twitter.com/C7H2E2j56k
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) January 13, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #148 on:** February 18, 2022, 03:46:58 PM »

2013 turnout was historic - 86 percent - then we dropped 8 percent to 78 - and I think we are going to drop to 70-72 percent.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #149 on:** February 18, 2022, 04:28:11 PM »

Kirinyanga UDA doing better than Ruto - I suspect the fallout with Ngirici affected this

KIRINYAGA COUNTY PARTY ALLIANCE POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/1RCFz2tNYh
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

KIRINYAGA COUNTY PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/rTdLfMaptb
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #150 on:** February 18, 2022, 04:32:18 PM »

Look like Kalonzo dead - Ruto leading Machakos. This why Ruto is tough to beat because he has national broad base appeal.

MACHAKOS COUNTY PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/IGo193kqQw
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

MACHAKOS COUNTY PARTY ALLIANCE POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/e2VshuduBs
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

/photo/1

RV Pundit · « **Reply #151 on:** February 18, 2022, 04:53:05 PM »

Look like I overrelied on the Mandera/NEP leaders joining Azimio. Clearly people on the ground are on different wavelength. The bought leaders have a problem ahead

Invalid Tweet ID/photo/1
Invalid Tweet ID/photo/1

RV Pundit · « **Reply #152 on:** February 18, 2022, 05:21:01 PM »

Nairobi is about right where I think it should be.

NAIROBI COUNTY PARTY ALLIANCE POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/ByM31HFGiY
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #153 on:** February 18, 2022, 05:43:41 PM »

Tharaka Nithi - more like I expect - Ruto will do well here and in Embu - will struggle in Meru

THARAKA-NITHI PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/YS4hkCsU9s
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

THARAKA-NITHI PARTY ALLIANCE POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/BUiPhLIgND
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #154 on:** February 18, 2022, 05:45:47 PM »

Yes I expected Ruto to underperform in Meru but not this much. Ruto need a deal with Kiraitu with Bus party.

MERU COUNTY PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/fcgLJqX375
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

/photo/1

MERU COUNTY PARTY ALLIANCE POPULARITY RATING pic.twitter.com/yQBedZIkpW
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) February 18, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #155 on:** February 19, 2022, 02:13:35 PM »

Okay finally found TIFA breakdown - Raila has big lead over Ruto in Nairobi (hard to believe that) - Western is neck to neck - depends on the sampling - I think there is geographical component there- elsewhere Ruto beat Raila including in Coast.

There still still lots of undecided votes - 30 percent almost - when you weed out those - the percentage reflect MOAS 55 percent for Ruto - and 39 percent for Ruto - with Kalonzo & others still on the run taking remainder 6 percent.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #156 on:** March 01, 2022, 07:45:00 PM »

Quick head ups. I will be removing Kalonzo from Raila's Azimio. Today marked the end of any illusion that Kalonzo will agree to anything but lead the Azimio ticket. Raila will not even entertain that thought

Now it's likely we are looking at Ruto - Gachagua, Raila- Munya or PK, Kalonzo-Karua ticket!

Will Kalonzo-Karua go all the way or they will shortcircuit to Kenya Kwanza?

We have four weeks to find out.

Now watching Uhuru+Gideon - will they proceed to the next move - or they will settle on squeeze ODM gonads to get Nairobi governorship and few things and there for post election protection....

RV Pundit · « **Reply #157 on:** March 04, 2022, 04:25:13 PM »

Lots of opinion poll from Mizani but none of parties or presidencies

https://twitter.com/Mizaniafrica

RV Pundit · « **Reply #158 on:** March 10, 2022, 02:12:02 PM »

TIFA research

Muranga gubernatioral totally opposite of Mizani

- but I trust Tom Wolf better

Nairobi Raila led with 41 against 31
Busia Raila has 76 against Ruto 16
Mt Kenya Ruto has 71 against Raila 16

The popularity-strength of UDA in Murang’a is mirrored in that of William Ruto regarding the forthcoming presidential contest. Whether Raila Odinga can close any/much of the gap between them in the remaining five months will be a major challenge.#TIFACountyPolls pic.twitter.com/1Ub9OhoXKs
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) March 10, 2022

Three-quarters of Busia respondents prefer Raila Odinga as the next president, with his nearest rival, William Ruto, attracting less than one-sixth his support (12%). Such popularity reflects that of Odinga’s political party and coalition ODM & Azimio la Umoja.#TIFACountyPolls pic.twitter.com/xCcpPkhh9O
— TIFA Research (@TifaResearch) March 10, 2022

RV Pundit · « **Reply #159 on:** March 11, 2022, 02:36:19 PM »

Mizani Africa - inflate Raila number and deflate Ruto's.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNkIKIXXwAAzSIW?format=jpg&name=large

pic.twitter.com/uM35dC38Wg
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) March 11, 2022

News:

Author Topic: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread. (Read 85675 times)