Masinde hasn't really been here.
I was one who initially was for Putin-Mevdev when Uhuru was screwball.
Obviously it hard to pull such - Uhuru would have definitely refuse Putin-Mevdev - that was Poodle and his master arrangment.
Here were two equals - although Uhuru was PORK and coming from GEMA.
But Ruto did the calculation - 1) He could continue with LOOSE COUPLING - under TNA and URP - and do a 50-50 coalition
or 2) He could forget 50-50 - and DO A STRONG COUPLING with GEMA - by collapsing the party into Jubilee.
So Ruto knew if Uhuru jumped him - it would be very easy in Loose Coupling to just pull out TNA - the same way NAK-LDP or other loose coalitions had done.
Ruto had learnt two things from Raila - you strongly couple - and then blur the lines - consummate the marriage.
Raila had strongly coupled with KANU, collapsed NDP and went to time came to quit KANU - Raila took way more than NDP he brought - because at that moment you could not tell KANU from KANU.The second thing - Ruto had seen ODM coupling of KANU/LDP - had kept Raila strong - because you could breaks part - but strong coupling - held the core.
So easy decision - STRONG COUPLING with GEMA.
What Ruto never factored was that Jubilee would die with Uhuru -
But as he looks back - his gamble has paid big time - GEMA are strongly coupled with Ruto - it's impossible to tell Kalenjin URP or TNA - so when split is happening - it's happening in a way that has completely made Uhuru useless.
He cannot pull back his TNA - Jubilee is dying on July 15th - and strong coupling with continue in UDA.
Strong coupling worked but at expense of 50-50 coalition - now Ruto was no longer a party chair and coalition partner - but the traditional DPORK - and Uhuru did not have to consult him.
I think it was Dr. Masinde who told Kalenjins if Uhuru isn't planning games ask him for Putin Medvedev solution from 2017. If he says no, know then he's lying.
After 2017 Uhuru started games with Ruto. Fortunately unlike us in 2004 when we were told Kibaki had shafted us and we became furious hearing it, Ruto went to work. His team openly rebelled against Uhuru.
Now I'm not supporting Ruto contrary to repeated claims. I'm just stating facts.
Raila should carry out that simple test. It's less than a year to election. It won't harm Uhuru to see the makings of the team that will replace him. He will remain president only with Raila's team in charge.
If he refuses and keeps interior for example the question would be why does he need it?
It's not sufficient for Oburu to talk of having the deep state when it is under the firm control of Muthamaki. Let Raila even get control over NIS & military intelligence. What would go wrong if that's the guy Uhuru Kenyatta wants?
It's not like Uhuru has no experience with this. Moi denied him access in 2002 and he lost. In 2013 he blackmailed a willing Kibaki to grant him all those ministries. He couldn't get enough people ending up with the likes of Single-Brain-Cell Eunice Wamalwa in Justice. He cleared interior too for his own man or buffoon. It's raw power play.