Nipate

1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT

2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit

3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"

4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating

SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.

Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollster

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on September 13, 2025, 03:50:19 PM

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

https://www.youtube.com/live/LxUhowjyAMU?si=om8x3U8o1YZnw3I8

He has confirmed he will be on the ballot.

Now he is making sense.

As long as we have odm Raila.. opposition are wasting time. Unless they prize Raila out of gov we don't need election. That simple. Ruto 35%. Raila 30%. 60%. Opposition 40%0

RiggyG is barred and has no intent to run. He is just stringing Regular Githunguri. They are doing G7 - everyone runs for PORK until Dec 2026 'formula'.

RiggyG will be prime CS. Done deal.

Kalonzo-Natembeya ticket very likely.

I dont see how he is allowed to run - but Ruto would suddenly love to see him run - and if there is legal way to let him run he will be allowed to run.