Oburu will not support Ruto re-election

[Githunguri]

Oburu has asked for Deputy president position,You seek for impossible demands when you want to quit something.

I think Oburu is just incompetent to make a demand that will be ignored.
If he wanted to dump Ruto he would not fighting with Babu-Sifuna.

Oburu is a PHD economics Russia in 1970/1969 with deep political insights.A mathematical brain.He was the brain behind Raila.

When Raila was rotting in Jail,He was enjoying his drink with his sugar babies in Mombasa.

He has discovered any association with Ruto is catastrophic.In politics you just don't wake up and announce HOORAY...You start complaining and making unreasonable demanda.In this case,Can Ruto dump Kindiki and annoy GEMA more after Gachagua impeachment AND choose oburu or wanga as his deputy?Which is which?

Probability tells us if you toss a coin,Ruto has to stick with kindiki because he doesn't know how ODM will evolve or whether oburu will dump him like Raila did to Moi in 2002.

THEREFORE,Ruto will not dump Kindiki and Oburu will quit UDA caliphate to ensure ODM wins seats in Nairobi Western and coast under the united opposition umbrella of Kalonzo which brings in Kamba Gema luhya etc.

He will dump wanga opiyo junet and wandayi,call them conmen and join Sifuna group.It makes lots of political sense.He wins more seats,a few cabinet positiona and makes Jaoko Odinga governor.What about supporting Ruto?ITS A LOSS.

After Ruto defeat in 2027,ODM then dumps Kalonzo and either sifuna or babu becomes odm leader and presidential candidate..

Post 2027,You will not hear of old folks...It will be Methu Ndindi Babu Sifuna etc.

Thats why we must think POST 2027.

ALL SCENARIOS AT PLAY,OBURU WILL DUMP RUTO.

No sane politician associates with Ruto moving foward.

They quit ONE by ONE.

[Modesty Blaise]

Oburu is a PHD economics Russia in 1970/1969 with deep political insights.A mathematical brain.He was the brain behind Raila.

When Raila was rotting in Jail,He was enjoying his drink with his sugar babies in Mombasa.

He has discovered any association with Ruto is catastrophic.In politics you just don't wake up and announce HOORAY...You start complaining and making unreasonable demanda.In this case,Can Ruto dump Kindiki and annoy GEMA more after Gachagua impeachment AND choose oburu or wanga as his deputy?Which is which?

Probability tells us if you toss a coin,Ruto has to stick with kindiki because he doesn't know how ODM will evolve or whether oburu will dump him like Raila did to Moi in 2002.

THEREFORE,Ruto will not dump Kindiki and Oburu will quit UDA caliphate to ensure ODM wins seats in Nairobi Western and coast under the united opposition umbrella of Kalonzo which brings in Kamba Gema luhya etc.

He will dump wanga opiyo junet and wandayi,call them conmen and join Sifuna group.It makes lots of political sense.He wins more seats,a few cabinet positiona and makes Jaoko Odinga governor.What about supporting Ruto?ITS A LOSS.

After Ruto defeat in 2027,ODM then dumps Kalonzo and either sifuna or babu becomes odm leader and presidential candidate..

Post 2027,You will not hear of old folks...It will be Methu Ndindi Babu Sifuna etc.

Thats why we must think POST 2027.

ALL SCENARIOS AT PLAY,OBURU WILL DUMP RUTO.

No sane politician associates with Ruto moving foward.

They quit ONE by ONE.

Oburu could not win ODM Siaya governor primaries and had to be nominated after ground rejected him for a small fish.
He has poor political instincts unlike Raila. That is why Babu-Sifuna are running circles around him.
Even Miguna has a PhD. 

Why I don't think Oburu will dump Ruto -
-Sifuna was fired just last week.
-Rival rallies are still being organized by both factions.

These events don't indicate a detente but an escalation.
Let us watch out for NDC on 27 March. Whether it will be cancelled.

I agree the dominoes will escalate into an avalanche against Ruto,
But not from Oburu.
I expect likes of Simba Arati to decamp to Jubilee which is fielding Matiang'i.
Sakaja was going to be a first domino - but Ruto struck preemptively to prevent it.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Don't get your pressure up for no reason. These politicians are building their profiles for negotiations. Sifuna wanted cool 500M from Ruto for endorsement. Kalonzo, the same. Right now is not the time to pay anyone, but let them stew for a while then bei ya join at the right time. To settle for one Presidential candidate is not a joke. Kalonzo, if not him, he automatically sings TUTAM based on my intelligence. They All know IEBC and Supreme Court both have one dear task-To make sure Ruto is declared President on election night!

[Modesty Blaise]

Don't get your pressure up for no reason. These politicians are building their profiles for negotiations. Sifuna wanted cool 500M from Ruto for endorsement. Kalonzo, the same. Right now is not the time to pay anyone, but let them stew for a while then bei ya join at the right time. To settle for one Presidential candidate is not a joke. Kalonzo, if not him, he automatically sings TUTAM based on my intelligence. They All know IEBC and Supreme Court both have one dear task-To make sure Ruto is declared President on election night!

It is easy because Riggy is disqualified. The signs are Kalonzo-Matiang'i.
Matiang'i is not going for PORK. He is aiming for the sun to land the moon.

It is not just money - it is not easy to defect, only Kalonzo can switch camps with his party and base intact.
Matiang'i, Natembeya/Eugene, even Babu-Sifuna will suffer irreparable damage if they switch.
They all champion resistance, transformation, competence, etc, which makes their bases ideological - unlike Kalonzo's pure Kamba-only tribal base.

[RV Pundit]

File this under delusion.
ODM-UDA coalition will happen because ODM cannot run out of big seats in gov - finance, energy, minning.
Ruto has given them a deadline to put pressure on them.
By June Ruto want that business done with.
ODM will NOT get DPORK
ODM will get more CS and Ps.
ODM will get zoning - like we saw in last by election - where ODM is currently MP or senator - UDA will not compete.
So expect ODM to get Luo Nyanza four +Kisii, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Mombasa, half of Nairobi, Wajir, Tana river, Kilifi.

What expect ODM NDC will seal Sifuna and all those opposed to Grand UDA-ODM coalition.
ODM NDC will endorse UDA coalition.
ODM-UDA will go into technical negotiation.
And the deal along those major lines - ODM getting half of gov almost and zoning.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Don't get your pressure up for no reason. These politicians are building their profiles for negotiations. Sifuna wanted cool 500M from Ruto for endorsement. Kalonzo, the same. Right now is not the time to pay anyone, but let them stew for a while then bei ya join at the right time. To settle for one Presidential candidate is not a joke. Kalonzo, if not him, he automatically sings TUTAM based on my intelligence. They All know IEBC and Supreme Court both have one dear task-To make sure Ruto is declared President on election night!

It is easy because Riggy is disqualified. The signs are Kalonzo-Matiang'i.
Matiang'i is not going for PORK. He is aiming for the sun to land the moon.

It is not just money - it is not easy to defect, only Kalonzo can switch camps with his party and base intact.
Matiang'i, Natembeya/Eugene, even Babu-Sifuna will suffer irreparable damage if they switch.
They all champion resistance, transformation, competence, etc, which makes their bases ideological - unlike Kalonzo's pure Kamba-only tribal base.

GEMA don't want someone who will go for ten cool years and another 10 for his deputy. They do Kalonzo Mating means the next time they compete is 2040s. With Ruto, they get big chance in 2032 (The nearest point to power). If Kindiki is still the deputy, they are already in play for 2027 and 2032! Kalonzo on the top of the ticket is DOA!