Nipate

In Summary

•Ruto’s administration is grappling with unprecedented public unrest fueled by high taxation, allegations of corruption, and growing accusations of impunity.
•This pressure has prompted ambitious political leaders to quietly distance themselves from the broad-based government.

TROUBLE is looming for President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga as key allies signal plans to break away, either to team up with rivals or to forge independent paths ahead of the 2027 general election.

Beyond the turmoil in Mt Kenya, both leaders’ firm grip on their traditional political bases is now doubtful, with former loyalists defecting or distancing themselves from their once-influential principals.

The likely defections threaten to weaken the political dominance of the two most powerful figures in Kenya’s current political landscape and may reflect deeper shifts in the country’s political dynamics.

Several leaders within both Kenya Kwanza and ODM now fear the burden of incumbency could come at a steep political cost in 2027.

The courage by some of the leaders to openly breakaway from Raila and Ruto, while still confident of a win, could also signify changing political fortunes for the duo, analyst say.

Interestingly, some of the realignments are happening in Nairobi, Western Kenya, Coast and in parts of Masailand, regions where Raila and Ruto swept clean in the 2022 polls.

Ruto’s administration is grappling with unprecedented public unrest fueled by high taxation, allegations of corruption, and growing accusations of impunity.

This pressure has prompted ambitious political leaders to quietly distance themselves from the broad-based government.

Multiple MPs who rode the UDA or ODM wave in 2022 are now crafting new political identities.

Some hint at contesting as independents or aligning with emerging formations—seeking to avoid being directly associated with the perceived failures of the government.

Others are drifting toward the opposition, with Raila’s influence suffering particularly in the Gusii region.

In Central Kenya, many leaders, including some current governors and senior government officials, are said to be planning to quit as the clock ticks towards 2027.

Moses Kuria resigned last weeks as Ruto’s adviser, but his political plans remain unclear.

Prominent figures once fiercely loyal to Ruto or Raila and now seemingly changing course include Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and MPs Mohamed Ali (Nyali), Babu Owino (Embakasi East), and Caleb Amisi (Saboti).

In Kisii, nearly all ODM MPs have signaled defection. They include Senator Richard Onyonka and Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi.

In Maasailand, Kajiado Senator Lenku Seki, who was elected on Ruto’s UDA ticket, has shifted his allegiance to Gachagua.

It is a similar case in Narok, where Moitalel Ole Kenta, who ran for Narok governor on Raila’s ODM party ticket in 2022, is leaning towards Gachagua.

In Western Kenya, Senator Khalwale—long regarded as a key Ruto ally and who doubles up as the Majority Whip— is gradually detaching himself from the ruling UDA party.

Sources close to the outspoken legislator reveal that he is quietly laying the groundwork for a new political outfit, the United Patriotic Movement, which is reportedly in the process of being registered through proxies. The party is expected to be headquartered in Nairobi.

"Yes, he has registered a party through proxies. He cannot declare himself party leader because he is still serving as a senator," said a close confidant who requested anonymity.

In a video clip that has since gone viral, Khalwale hinted at the formation of a political vehicle to rescue Luhyas from what he termed as the current political bondage.

“I have respected Wetang’ula. I have respected Mudavadi, but because they have let us down, I have decided. Let them go there (stay in government), but they will also find me here,” he says.

“I have been relying on them so that we walk together, either in one vehicle or a vehicle that can give me leeway to reach up there. That is the problem they used in 2022 to stop me. I’m the first person who brought William Ruto to the Luhya nation.”

When contacted by The Star, Khalwale neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Instead, he offered a cryptic analogy:

"Even Americans went to the moon, but they never said until they were there. Let’s continue talking. We will talk.”

Known for his fiery speeches and blunt commentary, Khalwale has recently emerged as a sharp critic of the Ruto administration—especially over alleged police killings, abductions, and what he calls a politically motivated anti-corruption drive.

His defiance is seen as a potential sign of shifting allegiances in the vote-rich Western region ahead of 2027.

His latest criticism followed the dramatic arrest of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission.

Khalwale came to Natembeya’s defense, aligning himself with the embattled governor, who is increasingly leaning toward Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party. He decried the arrest as political persecution.

"That was political intimidation of the governor," Khalwale said, further fueling speculation of his split from the Ruto camp.

At the Coast, Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, popularly known as Jicho Pevu from his days as an investigative journalist, has also signaled intent to ditch UDA as he eyes the Mombasa gubernatorial seat in 2027.

In an interview with the Star, Ali lamented internal party wrangles and accused some UDA operatives of micromanagement and exclusion.

“There is a lot of micromanagement in the party, especially in Mombasa. It’s stifling leadership and personal agency,” he said.

His discontent has caught the attention of the opposition. Last month, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka hinted that Ali could be headed their way. At a rally in Changamwe, Kalonzo praised Ali and suggested his defection was imminent.

"You have been greeted by a young man called Jicho Pevu. Do you know Jicho Pevu? He has said he is on his way. He will join us like the others,” Kalonzo told the crowd.

Ali, the only MP elected on a UDA ticket in Mombasa, appeared to confirm his frustrations days later in a scathing social media post directed at the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“As a leader in this country and a former investigative journalist who sought to bring truth and justice to my fellow Kenyans, nothing is clearer to me today than the depths of depravity we have sunk in as a country,” he wrote. “The lies do not add up, and the story does not stick.”

He accused the regime of abandoning its promises and adopting “uncouth and authoritarian” methods to suppress dissent.

Meanwhile, Raila’s side of the political aisle is restless with internal rebellion. Some of his close allies are now distancing themselves from the opposition leader’s broader alliances—some quietly, others publicly.

Both Babu Owino and Caleb Amisi have openly criticised the Ruto-Raila cooperation and hinted they may walk away if the two join forces for 2027.

Amisi, in a clear indication of exploring new political options, remarked: “We must not just accept to be bandwagoned into only two political formations. Alternative voices are also critical in solving problems.

“Kenya needs a renaissance. For Kenya to change, we must never be drawn into team Wamunyoro (Rigathi Gachagua) or team Ruto. We must preach change—change that Kenya desperately needs.”

Babu, who has declared interest in the Nairobi gubernatorial race, has been especially vocal in opposing the Ruto-Raila rapprochement.

Despite both leaders hinting at supporting Governor Johnson Sakaja, Babu has insisted he will be on the ballot—triggering speculation that he may bolt out to pursue his ambition elsewhere.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

With defections looming, disillusionment simmering, and new alliances forming under the radar, observers believe that both Ruto and Raila now face an uphill task to either consolidate their camps or risk being left behind in a fast-shifting political terrain.

Nairobi Urban youth have not seen the Nairobi river like this. Ruto is doing big things that history will remember him very well for. Also, thousands of Urban youth have known slums, filth, no running water, dust, cartels, and all the vices until Ruto became president and changes started trooping in. The amount of projects going on in Nairobi will sway masses in 2027 when all will nearly be completed. I'd argue Ruto will scoop Nairobi's youth, especiqally the 200K+ who have benefitted directly from his actions.