Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 03, 2020, 03:15:57 AM
-
This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.
-
These one will mostly likely get reelected. You see that tall skinny guy. He is mp of ruiru. He is from githunguri. If you go to githunguri on your way to kambaa before gitwe girls about 4 kms from the town his dad has a big green Victorian home. His dad owned a beer and cigarettes distributor in rural. Thexe are guys who used to go to UK in 1980s for shopping. This guy is such a stand up humble guy. He has really amazed me at how he won ruiru against mwaura it was from retail politics..he is poorly educated but he makes up that with hard work. Ng'ang'a is an example how raising kids right can be beneficial to society
-
My fear is kenyan are thinking Corona is gone. I hope it is gone but we are treading on thin ice
-
These one will mostly likely get reelected. You see that tall skinny guy. He is mp of ruiru. He is from githunguri. If you go to githunguri on your way to kambaa before gitwe girls about 4 kms from the town his dad has a big green Victorian home. His dad owned a beer and cigarettes distributor in rural. Thexe are guys who used to go to UK in 1980s for shopping. This guy is such a stand up humble guy. He has really amazed me at how he won ruiru against mwaura it was from retail politics..he is poorly educated but he makes up that with hard work. Ng'ang'a is an example how raising kids right can be beneficial to society
Why is he poorly educated if the Ngangas were such a great family?
-
This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.
I can bet 10 Gs that only a Maximum of 4 of them will make it back to parliament . Where is Robina we place the bet . RV you can referee this one
-
Just use the infotrack ranking recently..also apart from kangata none here is thinking of upgrading meaning they are playing defense coz the ground is hostile. Those in Ruto camp are nearly all planning to topple current governors
-
These one will mostly likely get reelected. You see that tall skinny guy. He is mp of ruiru. He is from githunguri. If you go to githunguri on your way to kambaa before gitwe girls about 4 kms from the town his dad has a big green Victorian home. His dad owned a beer and cigarettes distributor in rural. Thexe are guys who used to go to UK in 1980s for shopping. This guy is such a stand up humble guy. He has really amazed me at how he won ruiru against mwaura it was from retail politics..he is poorly educated but he makes up that with hard work. Ng'ang'a is an example how raising kids right can be beneficial to society
what is retail politics..
-
These one will mostly likely get reelected. You see that tall skinny guy. He is mp of ruiru. He is from githunguri. If you go to githunguri on your way to kambaa before gitwe girls about 4 kms from the town his dad has a big green Victorian home. His dad owned a beer and cigarettes distributor in rural. Thexe are guys who used to go to UK in 1980s for shopping. This guy is such a stand up humble guy. He has really amazed me at how he won ruiru against mwaura it was from retail politics..he is poorly educated but he makes up that with hard work. Ng'ang'a is an example how raising kids right can be beneficial to society
Why is he poorly educated if the Ngangas were such a great family?
.
Education is not for everyone. His brother is a PhD and a professor in California. I believe he is a screen writer. Nganga is not a dummy but he is not as smart as mwaura. However he makes that up with hard work. He is a very astute business man and community leader.
I mean nganga is not the type that will abandon their duty to his constituents for a few coins. His family name I would think is more important than just a few minutes on the limelight. These are kind of kikuyus that can move the society forward. During his campaigns he would physically fix the markets. He empowered the traders to be organize and fix their problems. He used the self reliance model. Unlike Mwaura who is a pure legislator and politician. Maura is best suited in policy and advocacy not servant leadership
-
These one will mostly likely get reelected. You see that tall skinny guy. He is mp of ruiru. He is from githunguri. If you go to githunguri on your way to kambaa before gitwe girls about 4 kms from the town his dad has a big green Victorian home. His dad owned a beer and cigarettes distributor in rural. Thexe are guys who used to go to UK in 1980s for shopping. This guy is such a stand up humble guy. He has really amazed me at how he won ruiru against mwaura it was from retail politics..he is poorly educated but he makes up that with hard work. Ng'ang'a is an example how raising kids right can be beneficial to society
what is retail politics..
It akin to micro and macro..so nganga deals with local problems. His sole focus is ruiru. He cares less what it happening nationally. On the other hange ichungwa deals more with macro issues. Two approaches. National leaders can do both by use of surrogates to do the micro. So in case of my villagemate he spends his time delivering for ruiru. He lives and breaths that. He knows the issue of each ward or area. He attends to that. Magugu was very good at this. He would deal with retail while holding political office. His dad was the same during colonialism. He single handedly encourage kikuyus to plant coffee and would increase their allotted quotas illegally. Magugu built schools, roads, hospitals. He didn't care if it was his constituency or not he would it and not ask for anything..it elevated him to god like status..Dr karanja was an maghoha like arsehole..his own mother lived in penury and karanja would visit her and park is Benz under a tree and not get out becoz he didn't want to his suit to get soot from his mothers kitchen. He was a poisonous bastard
-
This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.
I can bet 10 Gs that only a Maximum of 4 of them will make it back to parliament . Where is Robina we place the bet . RV you can referee this one
Apples and oranges- equivocating MP churn with camps. It got nothing to do with political leaning.
-
This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.
Njamba - I don't recognize most of these faces. Is there a Ruiru constituency? Roysambu?
Of course all these guys save one or two were Mobutu disciples few months or years ago. Except Wambugu, Wamuchomba and Kamanda. Mobutu is in a real panic.
-
Dr Spin kweli. When MPs are with Mobutu he is popular - when they dump him they have high attrition rate. Talk is cheap - place your bet on Msambweni - is Mvurya backing hustler dog or what? You know your many theories about ground, polls, Jubilee laity, Ndii opinion, intimidation - is just mbio za sakafuni. We waited for MAD for 3 years - now Mobutu is waiting to be chased from Pangani. :o What does a "chase" or "eviction" look like? - they been literally locked out of the building, Murkomens and Duales were long fired, the NMC and NEC is now stuffed with Uhuru men.
Few months ago Tangatanga MPs were being chased with nyahunyo from Uhuru rallies - but you and Itumbi were busy spreading lies on riverroadrag.com. The MPs unanimously fired Tangatanga at the PG - they practically lynched Tharaka dwarf save few Kalenjin senators - now they are meeting Murathe in hotels - you have new spin. Every real test done for the numbers Mobutu come up woefully short.
Nowayhaha leta hio kimbele mbele yako hapa - are we going to see hustler wave in Pwani or doesn't the voodoo work outside Mt Kenya? Isn't this the real "ground"? :)
Msambweni is not even Hustler vs ODM - more like spin vs reality.
-
Okay make sense. You mean a Jaluo kind of politician he isn't. This the problem with Luo Nyanza - except South Nyanza. Most ODM politicians are just into national issues - and not local issues. Someone like Raila or Orengo will never construct a toilet...but will talk a storm daily. Now most Luos are starting to refocus. In our place - retail politics is everything - people don't care much what you say in Nairobi - they want you in the ground providing practical leadership. The counties are now helping and hopefully we will have pure legislators - but not 400 of them - maybe just 100.
It akin to micro and macro..so nganga deals with local problems. His sole focus is ruiru. He cares less what it happening nationally. On the other hange ichungwa deals more with macro issues. Two approaches. National leaders can do both by use of surrogates to do the micro. So in case of my villagemate he spends his time delivering for ruiru. He lives and breaths that. He knows the issue of each ward or area. He attends to that. Magugu was very good at this. He would deal with retail while holding political office. His dad was the same during colonialism. He single handedly encourage kikuyus to plant coffee and would increase their allotted quotas illegally. Magugu built schools, roads, hospitals. He didn't care if it was his constituency or not he would it and not ask for anything..it elevated him to god like status..Dr karanja was an maghoha like arsehole..his own mother lived in penury and karanja would visit her and park is Benz under a tree and not get out becoz he didn't want to his suit to get soot from his mothers kitchen. He was a poisonous bastard
-
Relax. Don't burst a vein. One thing at a time. Let talk the GEMA mps here supporting Uhuru - a president who is retiring. I am not sure why they are supporting him - because Uhuru doesn't need any support. Out the about 70 Gema Mps and senators...we have about 25 there...where are the 50. And that is after a lot of bribery and intimidation.
Bribery - they get paid to attack Ruto
Intimidation - KRA/CID/EACC/ARA
Dr Spin kweli. When MPs are with Mobutu he is popular - when they dump him they have high attrition rate. Talk is cheap - place your bet on Msambweni - is Mvurya backing hustler dog or what? You know your many theories about ground, polls, Jubilee laity, Ndii opinion, intimidation - is just mbio za sakafuni. We waited for MAD for 3 years - now Mobutu is waiting to be chased from Pangani. :o What does a "chase" or "eviction" look like? - they been literally locked out of the building, Murkomens and Duales were long fired, the NMC and NEC is now stuffed with Uhuru men.
Few months ago Tangatanga MPs were being chased with nyahunyo from Uhuru rallies - but you and Itumbi were busy spreading lies on riverroadrag.com. The MPs unanimously fired Tangatanga at the PG - they practically lynched Tharaka dwarf save few Kalenjin senators - now they are meeting Murathe in hotels - you have new spin. Every real test done for the numbers Mobutu come up woefully short.
Nowayhaha leta hio kimbele mbele yako hapa - are we going to see hustler wave in Pwani or doesn't the voodoo work outside Mt Kenya? Isn't this the real "ground"? :)
Msambweni is not even Hustler vs ODM - more like spin vs reality.
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
Robina,
You need to concentrate with your so called " Punditry" . You certainly cannot understand Muranga politics and partly the reason Murathe convinced Peter Kenneth , it was easier to win in Nairobi as Muranga was a sealed deal .
You claim Ruto rigged in his associates . Wairia had prepared himself well in advance in anticipation of of PKs candidature in Muranga .
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
Robina,
You need to concentrate with your so called " Punditry" . You certainly cannot understand Muranga politics and partly the reason Murathe convinced Peter Kenneth , it was easier to win in Nairobi as Muranga was a sealed deal .
You claim Ruto rigged in his associates . Wairia had prepared himself well in advance in anticipation of of PKs candidature in Muranga .
So Murang'a is so complex that most MPs oppose Mobutu despite the hustler wave? 8) But at least this is a better spin than claiming all leaders but Ndindi are scared of KRA. The entire Mt Kenya Mobutu now only has a handful of backers - especially Kikuyuland - his rabid tours all over show panic.
-
Noway - I estimate 70% of Mt Kenya long deserted hustler. His pivot to Mijikenda and Gusii is indicative of spreading his eggs to more baskets out there. This mayhem in Murang'a is a last nail on his coffin kwa mlima. Taking on Prince Uhuru was the biggest blunder of his life starting with mlolongo.
Save this thread.
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
Robina,
You need to concentrate with your so called " Punditry" . You certainly cannot understand Muranga politics and partly the reason Murathe convinced Peter Kenneth , it was easier to win in Nairobi as Muranga was a sealed deal .
You claim Ruto rigged in his associates . Wairia had prepared himself well in advance in anticipation of of PKs candidature in Muranga .
So Murang'a is so complex that most MPs oppose Mobutu despite the hustler wave? 8) But at least this is a better spin than claiming all leaders but Ndindi are scared of KRA. The entire Mt Kenya Mobutu now only has a handful of backers - especially Kikuyuland - his rabid tours all over show panic.
WaIria and team through a network of MCAs and their assistants stuffed ballots boxex with premarked papers during Jubilee nominations in 2017 Secondly note that a substantial number of former Mps decided to run for Governor and Senate Posts , this gave room to the first term MPs who majority came in through Wa irias machinery .
Now Wairia and his team have formed a party (Civic Renewal Party CRP) and are preparing to negotiate with Raila hence the commotion to popularize it. Ive told you before forget about current elected poltiticians the probabilty of them making it back in 10 out of 100 % . The Irias , Sabina Checges , Kangata know about it hence theyve taken the route of going it with their own party ,of course they know because the ground is tilted to Rutos favour then their main competitors will be Ruto .
One thing theyve forgotten out of all Mt Kenya counties , Muranga is tops in its hate against Raila , their is hate with passion , secondly Muranga is the hotbed of Mungiki due to poverty ,it will come after them as you saw in Kenol .
-
Noway - I estimate 70% of Mt Kenya long deserted hustler. His pivot to Mijikenda and Gusii is indicative of spreading his eggs to more baskets out there. This mayhem in Murang'a is a last nail on his coffin kwa mlima. Taking on Prince Uhuru was the biggest blunder of his life starting with mlolongo.
Save this thread.
So 70 % will vote for Raila ? You really dont know Muranga . Once they hate they hate with passion . Moi in 92 got 59 votes in Murangas Gatanga , same like in 92 as Kamotho said , theyd rather vote for a Dog than Raila come 2022 .
What happened in Kenol is that Sabina Chenge and Iria in conjunction with Wamuchomba all BBI adherents imported slum dwellers from Kiandutu in Kiambu to cause mayhem in Kenol Muranga . The slum dwellers were rounded and 2 of them succumbed to mob justice by Muranga residents .
As was the script to depict Ruto as vilent - ODM and Raila were at it with Press statements and conferences of How Ruto is violent . Now the most saddest part is that there were orders from MuratheD inlaw NjiruL to state police to desert Kenol and aid the violence
How now you think think this is Mt Kenya deserting Ruto is beyond . The truth is what is coming out is unlike Kisii who watched the paid interupters in action , Mt Kenya is ready to defend Ruto , with or without Police , actually after bringing peace in Kenol they attacked police for aiding the kiadutu slum dwellers .The electorate is more informed now .
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
Robina,
You need to concentrate with your so called " Punditry" . You certainly cannot understand Muranga politics and partly the reason Murathe convinced Peter Kenneth , it was easier to win in Nairobi as Muranga was a sealed deal .
You claim Ruto rigged in his associates . Wairia had prepared himself well in advance in anticipation of of PKs candidature in Muranga .
So Murang'a is so complex that most MPs oppose Mobutu despite the hustler wave? 8) But at least this is a better spin than claiming all leaders but Ndindi are scared of KRA. The entire Mt Kenya Mobutu now only has a handful of backers - especially Kikuyuland - his rabid tours all over show panic.
WaIria and team through a network of MCAs and their assistants stuffed ballots boxex with premarked papers during Jubilee nominations in 2017 Secondly note that a substantial number of former Mps decided to run for Governor and Senate Posts , this gave room to the first term MPs who majority came in through Wa irias machinery .
Now Wairia and his team have formed a party (Civic Renewal Party CRP) and are preparing to negotiate with Raila hence the commotion to popularize it. Ive told you before forget about current elected poltiticians the probabilty of them making it back in 10 out of 100 % . The Irias , Sabina Checges , Kangata know about it hence theyve taken the route of going it with their own party ,of course they know because the ground is tilted to Rutos favour then their main competitors will be Ruto .
One thing theyve forgotten out of all Mt Kenya counties , Muranga is tops in its hate against Raila , their is hate with passion , secondly Muranga is the hotbed of Mungiki due to poverty ,it will come after them as you saw in Kenol .
Once again stop conflating MPig churn with political currency. Even Sudi or Jumwa might not make it back and this would have nothing to do with Uhuru, Mobutu or Raila. If you look at the MP ratings a nondescript Omboko Milemba was top performer and the residents didn't raise ANC or BBI as important. Local CDF, bursary, etc issues.
All said - the exodus of GEMA MPs, MCAs, etc from Mobutu is googlable. When the civil war started it was only a handful of Wambugu, Wamuchomba, Maoka and Kigano opposing Mobutu. Then defections hit the headlines - there were threads here on Nipate - now only a few diehards are left.
Moses Kuria tested the waters with Transformative party something. Those folded due to the overbearing Mobutu-Uhuru mayhem. Kuria and Wa Iria are also rather colorless outside the immediate localities. They firmly behind their masters now.
No, 70% of GEMA will not back Raila. Whatever the number will go to their own man - Uhuru stooge PK. Tangatanga could not sustain the Raila vs Mobutu rhetoric since Raila was last seen there with Uhuru at PK mother funeral. 2019. Now the evil spirit is strictly Matiang'i, Kibicho and I think Mama Ngina - even Jezebel got a break. It is going very well and Raila will not interfere.
Mobutu is divesting in Gusii, Mijikenda and Kamba. Tough luck.
-
I wish the Kieleweke would read your posts and save more lives. Why try to block unpopular Ruto from attending church. What are they hidding. You know they are hidding the ground - the mashinani coming to see Ruto in their numbers. Like Raila using all force to prevent Ruto kicking his balls in his bedroom..... it desperation...but good thing IT CANNOT BE SCALED.
That is why 2 people had to die. Ruto popularity has to be hidden - and they are going to get more desperate. But I believe Kikuyu nation will send them parking before even 2022.
Anyone associated with Kieleweke has probably confirmed their joblessness in 1.5yrs. They will join Uhuru because they are busy supporting someone who doesn't need any support.
Anyway know we are about 1.5yrs to election - things will get hot. Ruto has to be very tactical and strategic. The scared unpopular GEMA political elite are going to get desperate...even assiniation will come on the table. They don't care about the 1M diaspora who'd be collatoral damage. They have given up of RV gema diaspora...as they try to win the home base.
Here the problem for them - it's going to be very expensive and very hard job to stop Ruto - who be gaining more and more symapthy/support - almost for free.
Once again stop conflating MPig churn with political currency. Even Sudi or Jumwa might not make it back and this would have nothing to do with Uhuru, Mobutu or Raila. If you look at the MP ratings a nondescript Omboko Milemba was top performer and the residents didn't raise ANC or BBI as important. Local CDF, bursary, etc issues.
All said - the exodus of GEMA MPs, MCAs, etc from Mobutu is googlable. When the civil war started it was only a handful of Wambugu, Wamuchomba, Maoka and Kigano opposing Mobutu. Then defections hit the headlines - there were threads here on Nipate - now only a few diehards are left.
Moses Kuria tested the waters with Transformative party something. Those folded due to the overbearing Mobutu-Uhuru mayhem. Kuria and Wa Iria are also rather colorless outside the immediate localities. They firmly behind their masters now.
No, 70% of GEMA will not back Raila. Whatever the number will go to their own man - Uhuru stooge PK. Tangatanga could not sustain the Raila vs Mobutu rhetoric since Raila was last seen there with Uhuru at PK mother funeral. 2019. Now the evil spirit is strictly Matiang'i, Kibicho and I think Mama Ngina - even Jezebel got a break. It is going very well and Raila will not interfere.
Mobutu is divesting in Gusii, Mijikenda and Kamba. Tough luck.
-
I was surprised to note only Nyoro and Wahome support Mobutu in the entire Murang’a. The rest are Kieleweke. According to the Nipate dominatrix the reverse is ttue.
Robina,
You need to concentrate with your so called " Punditry" . You certainly cannot understand Muranga politics and partly the reason Murathe convinced Peter Kenneth , it was easier to win in Nairobi as Muranga was a sealed deal .
You claim Ruto rigged in his associates . Wairia had prepared himself well in advance in anticipation of of PKs candidature in Muranga .
So Murang'a is so complex that most MPs oppose Mobutu despite the hustler wave? 8) But at least this is a better spin than claiming all leaders but Ndindi are scared of KRA. The entire Mt Kenya Mobutu now only has a handful of backers - especially Kikuyuland - his rabid tours all over show panic.
WaIria and team through a network of MCAs and their assistants stuffed ballots boxex with premarked papers during Jubilee nominations in 2017 Secondly note that a substantial number of former Mps decided to run for Governor and Senate Posts , this gave room to the first term MPs who majority came in through Wa irias machinery .
Now Wairia and his team have formed a party (Civic Renewal Party CRP) and are preparing to negotiate with Raila hence the commotion to popularize it. Ive told you before forget about current elected poltiticians the probabilty of them making it back in 10 out of 100 % . The Irias , Sabina Checges , Kangata know about it hence theyve taken the route of going it with their own party ,of course they know because the ground is tilted to Rutos favour then their main competitors will be Ruto .
One thing theyve forgotten out of all Mt Kenya counties , Muranga is tops in its hate against Raila , their is hate with passion , secondly Muranga is the hotbed of Mungiki due to poverty ,it will come after them as you saw in Kenol .
Once again stop conflating MPig churn with political currency. Even Sudi or Jumwa might not make it back and this would have nothing to do with Uhuru, Mobutu or Raila. If you look at the MP ratings a nondescript Omboko Milemba was top performer and the residents didn't raise ANC or BBI as important. Local CDF, bursary, etc issues.
All said - the exodus of GEMA MPs, MCAs, etc from Mobutu is googlable. When the civil war started it was only a handful of Wambugu, Wamuchomba, Maoka and Kigano opposing Mobutu. Then defections hit the headlines - there were threads here on Nipate - now only a few diehards are left.
Moses Kuria tested the waters with Transformative party something. Those folded due to the overbearing Mobutu-Uhuru mayhem. Kuria and Wa Iria are also rather colorless outside the immediate localities. They firmly behind their masters now.
No, 70% of GEMA will not back Raila. Whatever the number will go to their own man - Uhuru stooge PK. Tangatanga could not sustain the Raila vs Mobutu rhetoric since Raila was last seen there with Uhuru at PK mother funeral. 2019. Now the evil spirit is strictly Matiang'i, Kibicho and I think Mama Ngina - even Jezebel got a break. It is going very well and Raila will not interfere.
Mobutu is divesting in Gusii, Mijikenda and Kamba. Tough luck.
You are contradicting yourself , on one hand you imply by being a big player politician with a following of several elected politicians imply popularity on ground on the other had you go and by having a following of elected mps does not add any political currency .
Truth of the matter for MPs it all boils down in clinching party certificate by winning nominations on the most popular party of the region . All the rest a second and after to this fact . Its a known fact how to win the nominations its an array of methods , like in Mombasa it was how close and how much one would pay Joho , In Kilifi it was pure thuggery , In Muranga it was Wairiasa rigging machinery , In Nairobi bribing and thuggery , previously in Luo Nyanza it was sycophancy now its pure curruption , name it .
My point is tone down on this narrative you are trying to create that elected MPS following a national leader implies that the national leader is popular and this will translate to votes in the General elections . Especially taking into consideration the upcoming General elections will be a regime change elections , a new crop of leadership will emerge , forget WaIrias and Sabina chege , they hold no traction even in Muranga .
Now coming to PK , he had a good chance of being Governor of Nairobi in 2013 he wasted it through the drain by miscalculations , another good chance of being Governor of Muranga in 2017 he was deceived by his nemesis and instead promised to be rigged in Nairobi which diminished his stature . I personally told him in his face , if you will not be around Rutos team forget it . Its upto him , another thing to note its not that PK is very popular in Mt Kenya , first he is seen as a mzungu , secondly even in 2013 elections d you know Raila beat PK in his constituency Gatanga he polled 923 votes against railas 5,287 and Uhurus 61,214 . Now tell me this is a person you think can hack it in the national field . Revisit the previous Kingpins Kibakis 92,97 and Uhurus 2002 Perfomance and you will see you are living in lala land
-
Pk thinks he will just be handed over gema by fiat.It doesn't work like that.This another Matiangi flop.He is not even campaigning for it...just waiting for executive order from uhuru.
-
You are contradicting yourself , on one hand you imply by being a big player politician with a following of several elected politicians imply popularity on ground on the other had you go and by having a following of elected mps does not add any political currency .
Truth of the matter for MPs it all boils down in clinching party certificate by winning nominations on the most popular party of the region . All the rest a second and after to this fact . Its a known fact how to win the nominations its an array of methods , like in Mombasa it was how close and how much one would pay Joho , In Kilifi it was pure thuggery , In Muranga it was Wairiasa rigging machinery , In Nairobi bribing and thuggery , previously in Luo Nyanza it was sycophancy now its pure curruption , name it .
My point is tone down on this narrative you are trying to create that elected MPS following a national leader implies that the national leader is popular and this will translate to votes in the General elections . Especially taking into consideration the upcoming General elections will be a regime change elections , a new crop of leadership will emerge , forget WaIrias and Sabina chege , they hold no traction even in Muranga .
Now coming to PK , he had a good chance of being Governor of Nairobi in 2013 he wasted it through the drain by miscalculations , another good chance of being Governor of Muranga in 2017 he was deceived by his nemesis and instead promised to be rigged in Nairobi which diminished his stature . I personally told him in his face , if you will not be around Rutos team forget it . Its upto him , another thing to note its not that PK is very popular in Mt Kenya , first he is seen as a mzungu , secondly even in 2013 elections d you know Raila beat PK in his constituency Gatanga he polled 923 votes against railas 5,287 and Uhurus 61,214 . Now tell me this is a person you think can hack it in the national field . Revisit the previous Kingpins Kibakis 92,97 and Uhurus 2002 Perfomance and you will see you are living in lala land
MPs, governors and such influencers are well-defined in the MOAS 2017 Edition - they indicate the direction of the political wind. Clinging to the kingpin coattails does not guarantee political survival and so every cycle 80% of them are rejected. Mostly because their performance on the real issues that count - CDF, bursary, etc - is dismal. So the next straw is usually the kingpin who they tag along everywhere. Usually this rarely saves them. Kagwe and Murungaru were fierce Kibaki dogs 2007 but lost to newbies - late Gachagua and Kabando. Kuttuny was Mobutu dog 2013 and lost. Midiwo and others in the long list.
MPig churn rate will be high despite all the noises and factions - they are not mutually exclusive. Their leanings indicates the currency - but Wanjiku will swiftly reject them if their real job - local issues - is poorly done.
-
MOAS looks for many variable. The direction is important. If you are using Mps that are being bribed or intimidated from the top - then you'll flop like Raila. MOAS of 2013 had ODM at 2% in RV :) despite boasting many ministers and ass ministers.
Why is an MP or Governor or etc going X or Y direction. I can tell you for example in Gusii - I believe the pressure is coming from down - from Gusii seeing Matiangi has some chance here - and it affected both Raila and Ruto camps.
In central - the pressure is from statehouse and harambee house - it's fake signal - here I'd relie on opinion polls.
MPs, governors and such influencers are well-defined in the MOAS 2017 Edition - they indicate the direction of the political wind. Clinging to the kingpin coattails does not guarantee political survival and so every cycle 80% of them are rejected. Mostly because their performance on the real issues that count - CDF, bursary, etc - is dismal. So the next straw is usually the kingpin who they tag along everywhere. Usually this rarely saves them. Kagwe and Murungaru were fierce Kibaki dogs 2007 but lost to newbies - late Gachagua and Kabando. Kuttuny was Mobutu dog 2013 and lost. Midiwo and others in the long list.
MPig churn rate will be high despite all the noises and factions - they are not mutually exclusive. Their leanings indicates the currency - but Wanjiku will swiftly reject them if their real job - local issues - is poorly done.
-
You are contradicting yourself , on one hand you imply by being a big player politician with a following of several elected politicians imply popularity on ground on the other had you go and by having a following of elected mps does not add any political currency .
Truth of the matter for MPs it all boils down in clinching party certificate by winning nominations on the most popular party of the region . All the rest a second and after to this fact . Its a known fact how to win the nominations its an array of methods , like in Mombasa it was how close and how much one would pay Joho , In Kilifi it was pure thuggery , In Muranga it was Wairiasa rigging machinery , In Nairobi bribing and thuggery , previously in Luo Nyanza it was sycophancy now its pure curruption , name it .
My point is tone down on this narrative you are trying to create that elected MPS following a national leader implies that the national leader is popular and this will translate to votes in the General elections . Especially taking into consideration the upcoming General elections will be a regime change elections , a new crop of leadership will emerge , forget WaIrias and Sabina chege , they hold no traction even in Muranga .
Now coming to PK , he had a good chance of being Governor of Nairobi in 2013 he wasted it through the drain by miscalculations , another good chance of being Governor of Muranga in 2017 he was deceived by his nemesis and instead promised to be rigged in Nairobi which diminished his stature . I personally told him in his face , if you will not be around Rutos team forget it . Its upto him , another thing to note its not that PK is very popular in Mt Kenya , first he is seen as a mzungu , secondly even in 2013 elections d you know Raila beat PK in his constituency Gatanga he polled 923 votes against railas 5,287 and Uhurus 61,214 . Now tell me this is a person you think can hack it in the national field . Revisit the previous Kingpins Kibakis 92,97 and Uhurus 2002 Perfomance and you will see you are living in lala land
MPs, governors and such influencers are well-defined in the MOAS 2017 Edition - they indicate the direction of the political wind. Clinging to the kingpin coattails does not guarantee political survival and so every cycle 80% of them are rejected. Mostly because their performance on the real issues that count - CDF, bursary, etc - is dismal. So the next straw is usually the kingpin who they tag along everywhere. Usually this rarely saves them. Kagwe and Murungaru were fierce Kibaki dogs 2007 but lost to newbies - late Gachagua and Kabando. Kuttuny was Mobutu dog 2013 and lost. Midiwo and others in the long list.
MPig churn rate will be high despite all the noises and factions - they are not mutually exclusive. Their leanings indicates the currency - but Wanjiku will swiftly reject them if their real job - local issues - is poorly done.
Well I can see the diversionary tactic you are trying to play here - Speaking from both end of the mouths . My point is very clear , quit with this notion you are trying to drive that having an MPs following is a form of popularity currency to cashed on . I told you what really matters is the party at that particular election year . Ruto can decide to call his party wheelbarrow party in 2022 and as was the case in 2013 and 2017 politicians who will have nabbed the nomination certificate then will have a very big advantage .
-
Noway let me try again.
Currency: If a candidate is popular say Mobutu - MPs will flock to his party or faction for survival. It's called ground pressure. This is why I am unpersuaded by hustler popularity - in entire Murang'a only Ndindi and Alice are sold. Sabina and others must be crazy. Of course intimidation and money taint things but we are going by what we see.
Churn rate: Voters will vote for the popular top candidate and his party. But locally they will reject failures clinging to this kingpin. For example Kibaki was wildly popular in Nyeri 2007 - but people rejected Murungaru and Kagwe either at primaries or by electing independents. You can say the same for say Jicho Pevu - Raila got 80% but voters rejected ODM guy in Nyali.
Currency determines where MPs flock. Churn rate is enforced by locals in all regions regardless of party.
-
Noway let me try again.
Currency: If a candidate is popular say Mobutu - MPs will flock to his party or faction for survival. It's called ground pressure. This is why I am unpersuaded by hustler popularity - in entire Murang'a only Ndindi and Alice are sold. Sabina and others must be crazy. Of course intimidation and money taint things but we are going by what we see.
As you indicated above , what usually happens is that the popular candidate in this case take for example Muranga , will chose few select trustworthy Mps who will coordinate his activities on the ground and who he will asign the role identifying possible and popular candidates . In Muranga Ruto has Ndindi and Wahome , Now Ndindi and Wahome as you probably have noted have already given feedback to Ruto on whats on ground and what happened during 2017 Nominations . Team WaIria used WaIrias machinery to Rig the Jubilee nominations in 2017, first the managed to dislodge the appointed party officials in Muranga and then through MCAs and their assistants were able to Rig out Jamleck Kamau . Hence the reason they have formed CRP and they will use that as a vehicle to vie for elections in 2022 , This is partly their scheme where they want to do away with National parties and encourage balkanization as their chances of survival will be higher.
Churn rate: Voters will vote for the popular top candidate and his party. But locally they will reject failures clinging to this kingpin. For example Kibaki was wildly popular in Nyeri 2007 - but people rejected Murungaru and Kagwe either at primaries or by electing independents. You can say the same for say Jicho Pevu - Raila got 80% but voters rejected ODM guy in Nyali.
Currency determines where MPs flock. Churn rate is enforced by locals in all regions regardless of party.
In the above case you see you go back to 2007 , before 2010 Constitution and when Kibaki mistake was accepting other parties supporting him to field candidates for MPs etc . Come back to 2013 & 2017 elections and you will realize however unpopular you were on the ground as long as you managed to bag the partys nomination certificate that was more or less an assurance for being elected in G.E. Same for popular candidates however popular you were on ground if you didnt manage to bag in the nomination certificate then it was as good as saying by to the M.P. seat.
Bottom line is elected MPs are not a pointer of popularity contest .Actually the more you have on your side the bigger the baggage as it will lead to costly fall outs during the nominations
-
In the above case you see you go back to 2007 , before 2010 Constitution and when Kibaki mistake was accepting other parties supporting him to field candidates for MPs etc . Come back to 2013 & 2017 elections and you will realize however unpopular you were on the ground as long as you managed to bag the partys nomination certificate that was more or less an assurance for being elected in G.E. Same for popular candidates however popular you were on ground if you didnt manage to bag in the nomination certificate then it was as good as saying by to the M.P. seat.
Bottom line is elected MPs are not a pointer of popularity contest .Actually the more you have on your side the bigger the baggage as it will lead to costly fall outs during the nominations
Does it mean Mobutu is not popular in Kalenjin? He has 90% of MPs there.
Ditto for Raila in Nyanza.
-
In the above case you see you go back to 2007 , before 2010 Constitution and when Kibaki mistake was accepting other parties supporting him to field candidates for MPs etc . Come back to 2013 & 2017 elections and you will realize however unpopular you were on the ground as long as you managed to bag the partys nomination certificate that was more or less an assurance for being elected in G.E. Same for popular candidates however popular you were on ground if you didnt manage to bag in the nomination certificate then it was as good as saying by to the M.P. seat.
Bottom line is elected MPs are not a pointer of popularity contest .Actually the more you have on your side the bigger the baggage as it will lead to costly fall outs during the nominations
Does it mean Mobutu is not popular in Kalenjin? He has 90% of MPs there.
Ditto for Raila in Nyanza.
How do you know he has 90% of MPs there where as we see only a similar number as from other parts of Kenya in his entourage ?
Secondly in the last elections we saw a significant number of MPs who were on Rutos wrong side but still managed to get elected simply because they were in the right party at the right time .
Thirdly even the 90% you claim are Ruto "populists " They bring no added value voters wise to Ruto and 90% of them will go home come 2022 .
Same can be said of Raila .
As pointed out can you for once do your so called "Robinas Punditry " without quoting elected MPS . There you would understand current political dynamics
-
In the above case you see you go back to 2007 , before 2010 Constitution and when Kibaki mistake was accepting other parties supporting him to field candidates for MPs etc . Come back to 2013 & 2017 elections and you will realize however unpopular you were on the ground as long as you managed to bag the partys nomination certificate that was more or less an assurance for being elected in G.E. Same for popular candidates however popular you were on ground if you didnt manage to bag in the nomination certificate then it was as good as saying by to the M.P. seat.
Bottom line is elected MPs are not a pointer of popularity contest .Actually the more you have on your side the bigger the baggage as it will lead to costly fall outs during the nominations
Does it mean Mobutu is not popular in Kalenjin? He has 90% of MPs there.
Ditto for Raila in Nyanza.
How do you know he has 90% of MPs there where as we see only a similar number as from other parts of Kenya in his entourage ?
Secondly in the last elections we saw a significant number of MPs who were on Rutos wrong side but still managed to get elected simply because they were in the right party at the right time .
Thirdly even the 90% you claim are Ruto "populists " They bring no added value voters wise to Ruto and 90% of them will go home come 2022 .
Same can be said of Raila .
As pointed out can you for once do your so called "Robinas Punditry " without quoting elected MPS . There you would understand current political dynamics
Hahaa - we know by their pronouncements and actions. Kuttuny or Keter or Tiren or Kamket are openly BBI and anti-Mobutu. Shollei, Sudi, Kositany are openly pro-Mobutu, anti-Handshake.
Kindiki impeachment- all Kalenjin senators backed Kindiki. Plus Gema rebels Linturi, Kihika, 1 or 2 more. Kieleweke senators impeached Kindiki. Reason - Mobutu is popular in Kalenjin. Not so much in Kikuyuland - he has to camp there and praise Uhuru to maintain the fiction.
-
As for NYANDARUA out of 6 MPs only 1 managed to make it back representing 16% come back rate.
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013. MP 2017
KINANGOP. STEPHEN MBURU. ZACHARY THUKU
KIPIPIRI. SAMUEL GICHIGI. AMOS KIMUNYA
OL KALOU. DAVID KIARAHO DAVID KIARAHO
OL JOROK. JM WAIGANJO. MICHAEL MUCHIRA
NDARAGWA. FRANCIS NDERITU. JEREMIAH KIONI
NYANDARUA. WANJIKU MUHIA. FAITH GITAU
As for KIRINYAGA OUT OF 5 MPS 0 Made it back representing a come back rate of 0%
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013 MP 2017
MWEA. PETER GITAU. JOSPHAT WACHIRA
GICHUNGU. NJOGU BARUA. ROBERT. GITHINJI
NDIA. STEPHEN NGARE. GEORGE KARIUKI
KIRINYAGA CENTRAL. JOSEPH GITARI. JOHN WAMBUGU
KIRINYAGA. WINNIE NJUGUNA PURITY NGIRICI
As for NYERI out of 7 MPs only one managed to make it back , a come back rate of 14%
CONSTITUENCY MP 2013. MP 2017
TETU. NDUNGU GITHINJI. JAMES GACHUHI MWANGI
KIENI. KANINI KEGA. KANINI KEGA
MATHIRA. PETER WERU. RIGATHI GACHAGUA
OTHAYA. MARY WAMBUI. JAMES MUGAMBI
MUKURWEINI. KABANDO KABANDO. ANTONY KIAI.
NYERI TOWN. ESTHER MURUGI. NGUNJIRI WAMBUGU
NYERI. PRISCILLA KANYUA. RAHAB MUKAMI
Next is KIRINYAGA
Now that you still clinging on elected MPS to drive your theory of popularity , I will table as a sample Central MPs percentage of the ones who made it back
Lets start in Kiambu (see below summary) Out of 13 Mps only 4 made it back in 2017 thats around 30 % come back rate .
County - Constituency -2017 elected MP - 2013 Elected MP
Kiambu-Lari -Hon. Mwangi, Jonah Mburu -JOSEPH MBURU KAHANGARA
Kiambu -Gatundu North -Hon. Kibeh, Annie Wanjiku -FRANCIS KIGO NJENGA
Kiambu -Limuru -Hon. Mwathi, Peter Mungai -CHEGE JOHN KIRAGU
Kiambu-Githunguri Hon. Mukuha, Gabriel Kago -PETER NJOROGE BAIYA
Kiambu-Kikuyu Hon. Ichung'wah, Anthony Kimani -ANTHONY KIMANI ICHUGW’A
Kiambu-Ruiru Hon. Kingara, Simon Nganga -ESTHER NYAMBURA GATHOGO
Kiambu-Juja Hon. Waititu, Francis Munyua -FRANCIS MUNYUA WAITITU
Kiambu-Kabete Hon. Wamacukuru, James Githua Kamau -GEORGE MUKURU MUCHAI
Kiambu-Thika Town Hon. Jungle, Patrick Kimani Wainaina -ALICE WAMBUI NGANGA
Kiambu-Gatundu South Hon. Kuria, Moses Kiarie -JOSEPH NGUGI NYUMU
Kiambu-Kiambu -Hon. Wamuchomba, Gathoni -Anne Nyokabi Gatheca
Kiambu- Kiambu -JUDE L KANGETHE NJOMO -JUDE L KANGETHE NJOMO
Kiambu -KIAMBAA-KOINANGE PAUL -PAUL KOINANGE
Next Muranga
As for MURANGA out of 8 MPS Only 2 managed to make it back representing 25% comeback rate
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013. MP 2017
KANGEMA. TIRUS NGAHU. MUTURI KIGANO
KIHARU. IRUNGU KANGATA. NDINDI NYORO
MATHIOYA. CLEMENT WAMBUGU. PETER KIMARI
KIGUMO. JAMLECK KAMAU. .RUTH MWANIKI
KANDARA. ALICE WAHOME. ALICE WAHOME
MARAGWA. PETER KAMANDE MWANGI MARY WAITHERA
GATANGA. HUMPHREY KIMANI NJUGUNA. JOSEPH NDUATI
MURANGA. SABINA CHEGE. SABINA CHEGE
Next is Nyeri....
90% of these losers were FIRMLY in TNA but lost in the primaries. Currency is a constant and is unrelated to churn rate.
Example 2017
Ndaragwa: Kioni floored incumbent Nderitu in TNA primaries
Kipipiri: Kimunya floored incumbent Gichigi in TNA primaries. Both losers were in TNA.
In any election, majority incumbent MPs will be in the popular party (currency), but will be floored in the primaries of the popular party (churn).
https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/08/controversial-laikipia-north-mp-lempurkel-loses-poll/
-
Noway even your consort Pundit is mute on this one.
Pick a clear stronghold like Siaya. 90% of MPs are in ODM (currency). But most will not come back (churn). Homabay, Kericho and all such clear-cut Mobutu or Raila base follow this orthodoxy.
-
In the above case you see you go back to 2007 , before 2010 Constitution and when Kibaki mistake was accepting other parties supporting him to field candidates for MPs etc . Come back to 2013 & 2017 elections and you will realize however unpopular you were on the ground as long as you managed to bag the partys nomination certificate that was more or less an assurance for being elected in G.E. Same for popular candidates however popular you were on ground if you didnt manage to bag in the nomination certificate then it was as good as saying by to the M.P. seat.
Bottom line is elected MPs are not a pointer of popularity contest .Actually the more you have on your side the bigger the baggage as it will lead to costly fall outs during the nominations
Does it mean Mobutu is not popular in Kalenjin? He has 90% of MPs there.
Ditto for Raila in Nyanza.
How do you know he has 90% of MPs there where as we see only a similar number as from other parts of Kenya in his entourage ?
Secondly in the last elections we saw a significant number of MPs who were on Rutos wrong side but still managed to get elected simply because they were in the right party at the right time .
Thirdly even the 90% you claim are Ruto "populists " They bring no added value voters wise to Ruto and 90% of them will go home come 2022 .
Same can be said of Raila .
As pointed out can you for once do your so called "Robinas Punditry " without quoting elected MPS . There you would understand current political dynamics
Hahaa - we know by their pronouncements and actions. Kuttuny or Keter or Tiren or Kamket are openly BBI and anti-Mobutu. Shollei, Sudi, Kositany are openly pro-Mobutu, anti-Handshake.
Kindiki impeachment- all Kalenjin senators backed Kindiki. Plus Gema rebels Linturi, Kihika, 1 or 2 more. Kieleweke senators impeached Kindiki. Reason - Mobutu is popular in Kalenjin. Not so much in Kikuyuland - he has to camp there and praise Uhuru to maintain the fiction.
Thank you prove my point , youve only managed to mention 3 MPS pro Ruto out of 60+ from RV . I can see you are almost getting there
-
Noway - just to be clear, are you suggesting majority of Kalenjin MPs are not with Mobutu?
-
As for NYANDARUA out of 6 MPs only 1 managed to make it back representing 16% come back rate.
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013. MP 2017
KINANGOP. STEPHEN MBURU. ZACHARY THUKU
KIPIPIRI. SAMUEL GICHIGI. AMOS KIMUNYA
OL KALOU. DAVID KIARAHO DAVID KIARAHO
OL JOROK. JM WAIGANJO. MICHAEL MUCHIRA
NDARAGWA. FRANCIS NDERITU. JEREMIAH KIONI
NYANDARUA. WANJIKU MUHIA. FAITH GITAU
As for KIRINYAGA OUT OF 5 MPS 0 Made it back representing a come back rate of 0%
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013 MP 2017
MWEA. PETER GITAU. JOSPHAT WACHIRA
GICHUNGU. NJOGU BARUA. ROBERT. GITHINJI
NDIA. STEPHEN NGARE. GEORGE KARIUKI
KIRINYAGA CENTRAL. JOSEPH GITARI. JOHN WAMBUGU
KIRINYAGA. WINNIE NJUGUNA PURITY NGIRICI
As for NYERI out of 7 MPs only one managed to make it back , a come back rate of 14%
CONSTITUENCY MP 2013. MP 2017
TETU. NDUNGU GITHINJI. JAMES GACHUHI MWANGI
KIENI. KANINI KEGA. KANINI KEGA
MATHIRA. PETER WERU. RIGATHI GACHAGUA
OTHAYA. MARY WAMBUI. JAMES MUGAMBI
MUKURWEINI. KABANDO KABANDO. ANTONY KIAI.
NYERI TOWN. ESTHER MURUGI. NGUNJIRI WAMBUGU
NYERI. PRISCILLA KANYUA. RAHAB MUKAMI
Next is KIRINYAGA
Now that you still clinging on elected MPS to drive your theory of popularity , I will table as a sample Central MPs percentage of the ones who made it back
Lets start in Kiambu (see below summary) Out of 13 Mps only 4 made it back in 2017 thats around 30 % come back rate .
County - Constituency -2017 elected MP - 2013 Elected MP
Kiambu-Lari -Hon. Mwangi, Jonah Mburu -JOSEPH MBURU KAHANGARA
Kiambu -Gatundu North -Hon. Kibeh, Annie Wanjiku -FRANCIS KIGO NJENGA
Kiambu -Limuru -Hon. Mwathi, Peter Mungai -CHEGE JOHN KIRAGU
Kiambu-Githunguri Hon. Mukuha, Gabriel Kago -PETER NJOROGE BAIYA
Kiambu-Kikuyu Hon. Ichung'wah, Anthony Kimani -ANTHONY KIMANI ICHUGW’A
Kiambu-Ruiru Hon. Kingara, Simon Nganga -ESTHER NYAMBURA GATHOGO
Kiambu-Juja Hon. Waititu, Francis Munyua -FRANCIS MUNYUA WAITITU
Kiambu-Kabete Hon. Wamacukuru, James Githua Kamau -GEORGE MUKURU MUCHAI
Kiambu-Thika Town Hon. Jungle, Patrick Kimani Wainaina -ALICE WAMBUI NGANGA
Kiambu-Gatundu South Hon. Kuria, Moses Kiarie -JOSEPH NGUGI NYUMU
Kiambu-Kiambu -Hon. Wamuchomba, Gathoni -Anne Nyokabi Gatheca
Kiambu- Kiambu -JUDE L KANGETHE NJOMO -JUDE L KANGETHE NJOMO
Kiambu -KIAMBAA-KOINANGE PAUL -PAUL KOINANGE
Next Muranga
As for MURANGA out of 8 MPS Only 2 managed to make it back representing 25% comeback rate
CONSTITUENCY. MP 2013. MP 2017
KANGEMA. TIRUS NGAHU. MUTURI KIGANO
KIHARU. IRUNGU KANGATA. NDINDI NYORO
MATHIOYA. CLEMENT WAMBUGU. PETER KIMARI
KIGUMO. JAMLECK KAMAU. .RUTH MWANIKI
KANDARA. ALICE WAHOME. ALICE WAHOME
MARAGWA. PETER KAMANDE MWANGI MARY WAITHERA
GATANGA. HUMPHREY KIMANI NJUGUNA. JOSEPH NDUATI
MURANGA. SABINA CHEGE. SABINA CHEGE
Next is Nyeri....
90% of these losers were FIRMLY in TNA but lost in the primaries. Currency is a constant and is unrelated to churn rate.
Example 2017
Ndaragwa: Kioni floored incumbent Nderitu in TNA primaries
Kipipiri: Kimunya floored incumbent Gichigi in TNA primaries
In any election, majority incumbent MPs will be in the popular party (currency), but will be floored in the primaries of the popular party (churn).
Thank you once again , if they could have won the primaries they would have made it back to parliament . They say the nominations are the most tricky . When the Mps were busy in Nairobi , their rivals were busy schemeing on winning the primaries . Ive mentioned to you tactics politicians use to win the seats , from intimidation , bribery , influencing party officials (eso with Raila and ODM) , ballot stuffing , kidnapping , e.t.c.
Now getting back to the main point , having these Mps in your entourage which you seem to advancing is political capital means nothing during the general elections .
-
Noway even your consort Pundit is mute on this one.
Pick a clear stronghold like Siaya. 90% of MPs are in ODM (currency). But most will not come back (churn). Homabay, Kericho and all such clear-cut Mobutu or Raila base follow this orthodoxy.
Hustler nation is bigger fish..Gema will split unless uhuru reconcile with Ruto.I believe Ruto camp will carry the majority in GEMA.Lets wait for opinion polls..central is homogenous so easy to get the feel of the ground
-
Noway - just to be clear, are you suggesting majority of Kalenjin MPs are not with Mobutu?
My point is being with Ruto is neither here nor there . Mps can decide to be pro Ruto or not , it wont affect voting patterns of 2022 significantly . So using a following of elected MPs to determinate 2022 general election is factually incorrect .
-
Noway even your consort Pundit is mute on this one.
Pick a clear stronghold like Siaya. 90% of MPs are in ODM (currency). But most will not come back (churn). Homabay, Kericho and all such clear-cut Mobutu or Raila base follow this orthodoxy.
Hustler nation is bigger fish..Gema will split unless uhuru reconcile with Ruto.I believe Ruto camp will carry the majority in GEMA.Lets wait for opinion polls..central is homogenous so easy to get the feel of the ground
Msambweni and Gatundu North will really tell us about hustler. It hot air. We are debating currency here - whether elected leaders affiliation indicates popularity of a party or faction.
-
Noway - just to be clear, are you suggesting majority of Kalenjin MPs are not with Mobutu?
My point is being with Ruto is neither here nor there . Mps can decide to be pro Ruto or not , it wont affect voting patterns of 2022 significantly . So using a following of elected MPs to determinate 2022 general election is factually incorrect .
:) Are majority Kalenjin MPs with Mobutu or not? Swala nyeti hili. It is not random at all but driven by 1)ground popularity 2)money 3)machinery. 90% of Luo MPs are in ODM because of Raila - if it was neither here nor there (random) they would also be in Wiper, Kanu, Jubilee, Chap Chap not just ODM.
-
Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.
Causation vs correlation
-
It all depend on how support for mp/governors is acquired - if through bribery or intimidation - it doesn't reflect the ground. As we head towards 2022 this will be very clear. Most of those mps will abandon BBI/Wanjohi.
Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.
Causation vs correlation
-
This is a better argument than Noway tail-chasing. If you have fair game - MPs gravitate to the popular party. There is lots of intimidation by Uhuru and bribery by Mobutu. In strongholds RV, Luo it much clearer. By elections of course are best indicator short of general elections.
Churn rate will still be universally high regardless of parties and factions.
It all depend on how support for mp/governors is acquired - if through bribery or intimidation - it doesn't reflect the ground. As we head towards 2022 this will be very clear. Most of those mps will abandon BBI/Wanjohi.
Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.
Causation vs correlation
-
I am glad you're nearly getting there - all the MOAS/opinion polls - ultimate aim is to measure the feeling on the ground. The influencer has to effictively influence before we assign votes or grounds. You don't automatically get votes unless it was Raila who has Luos on his call and perk.
I think GEMa there is a lot of bribery/intimidation at the top - while the bottom - judging even from social media or facebook - is nearly anti-Raila/BBI/Uhuru/handshake.
Ruto doesn't own bribery - Uhuru is equally a bribing machine - and so are likes of Matiangi-Kibicho - which huge slash fund. Gideon Moi too. Raila and Kibaki dont bribe - they are not graduate from moi school of african politics.
And then you have guys who want to be near the power (gov) so they can get tenders, employ relatives, supporters.
Then of course you know there a lot being threaten with prosecution for being seen with Ruto.
Without any opinon poll - you can watch social media forums.
This is a better argument than Noway tail-chasing. If you have fair game - MPs gravitate to the popular party. There is lots of intimidation by Uhuru and bribery by Mobutu. In strongholds RV, Luo it much clearer. By elections of course are best indicator short of general elections.
Churn rate will still be universally high regardless of parties and factions.
-
Robina how many of the pictured politicians are now with Raila ?
Now yo have run away from the narrative of elected politicians to opinion polls .
This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.