https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Banks-restructure-Sh679bn-loans-on-corona-cash-crunch/539546-5583214-mb9597/index.htmlThat's just the restructured loans i.e loans that borrowers have requested deferment. There's another 376b non performing loans on banks books. Total $10b, that's more than 50% of total banks capital. Basically we have zombie banks. The 700b restructured loans are unlikely to be serviced cause the businesses are closing for good or operating at a fraction of what they were.
Interesting idea about snapping up dead companies...yes on bank..time to consolidate and have fewer but bigger banksPundit,
I dont think prices have even started coming down. Too early.Prices have come down especially for real estate but haven't hit bottom. Now an acre in karen is going for about 60m from 80m to 100m.
HK - How can I do this without a vulture fund :)Depends on your interest, but the first thing would be to approach credit department of your bank and get a list of distressed assets.
You have 30 million. I have a building I am selling in Makadara. It has tenants in it. All you need is to pay. The title is from original owner.
If I invest the same in a micro tea/cottage factory - I am sure I could make more money. Kenyans (kikuyus) need to stop obsessing with land and rental properties. Look at Bahindis - they own very little real estate - maybe the houses they live in - but have made a fortune from manufacturing.It won't happen. Govt can't beat us in the slumskycrappers business. This plot was owned by my grandfather. He had mud houses with rooms. He used to rent it to luos. He would collect his money get on his car and buy mutton with it. At 99 years he got approved a loan by Barclays bank to build a storey apartment. The family prevailed on him to not do it due to age.
When Ruto become PORK - I want gov to go big time into real estate - so people can divert their money and energies elsewhere - sio PLOTS maguta maguta.The new Kenya Mortgage Bank should be capitalized to offer mortagages at 5-6% - I mean it's almost risk free lending to give mortgage - and gov should work with chinese big contractors to bridge the housing deficit - then those houses should be sold as cheaply as possible with mortgage at even 4%.You have 30 million. I have a building I am selling in Makadara. It has tenants in it. All you need is to pay. The title is from original owner.
If I invest the same in a micro tea/cottage factory - I am sure I could make more money. Kenyans (kikuyus) need to stop obsessing with land and rental properties. Look at Bahindis - they own very little real estate - maybe the houses they live in - but have made a fortune from manufacturing.It won't happen. Govt can't beat us in the slumskycrappers business. This plot was owned by my grandfather. He had mud houses with rooms. He used to rent it to luos. He would collect his money get on his car and buy mutton with it. At 99 years he got approved a loan by Barclays bank to build a storey apartment. The family prevailed on him to not do it due to age.
When Ruto become PORK - I want gov to go big time into real estate - so people can divert their money and energies elsewhere - sio PLOTS maguta maguta.The new Kenya Mortgage Bank should be capitalized to offer mortagages at 5-6% - I mean it's almost risk free lending to give mortgage - and gov should work with chinese big contractors to bridge the housing deficit - then those houses should be sold as cheaply as possible with mortgage at even 4%.You have 30 million. I have a building I am selling in Makadara. It has tenants in it. All you need is to pay. The title is from original owner.
If I invest the same in a micro tea/cottage factory - I am sure I could make more money. Kenyans (kikuyus) need to stop obsessing with land and rental properties. Look at Bahindis - they own very little real estate - maybe the houses they live in - but have made a fortune from manufacturing.There's nothing like housing deficit in kenya, what we have is income deficit. By government borrowing like crazy it guarantees that interest rate on mortages won't be 6% any time soon. Another problem is also expensive construction. Before the chinese started using red soil to build roads, all roads were being constructed using hardcore stores. Red soil is cheaper and readily available plus the roads are more durable. Its about time someone invested in a proper brick manufacturing that would be cheaper than quarry stones. So instead of investing in plots how about investing in building materials.
When Ruto become PORK - I want gov to go big time into real estate - so people can divert their money and energies elsewhere - sio PLOTS maguta maguta.The new Kenya Mortgage Bank should be capitalized to offer mortagages at 5-6% - I mean it's almost risk free lending to give mortgage - and gov should work with chinese big contractors to bridge the housing deficit - then those houses should be sold as cheaply as possible with mortgage at even 4%.You have 30 million. I have a building I am selling in Makadara. It has tenants in it. All you need is to pay. The title is from original owner.
There's nothing like housing deficit in kenya, what we have is income deficit. By government borrowing like crazy it guarantees that interest rate on mortages won't be 6% any time soon. Another problem is also expensive construction. Before the chinese started using red soil to build roads, all roads were being constructed using hardcore stores. Red soil is cheaper and readily available plus the roads are more durable. Its about time someone invested in a proper brick manufacturing that would be cheaper than quarry stones. So instead of investing in plots how about investing in building materials.
There's nothing like housing deficit in kenya, what we have is income deficit. By government borrowing like crazy it guarantees that interest rate on mortages won't be 6% any time soon. Another problem is also expensive construction. Before the chinese started using red soil to build roads, all roads were being constructed using hardcore stores. Red soil is cheaper and readily available plus the roads are more durable. Its about time someone invested in a proper brick manufacturing that would be cheaper than quarry stones. So instead of investing in plots how about investing in building materials.
DP Ruto has been on the forefront in supporting Youth and Women groups in the country and it's evident. I like the Mortgage Plan it will help Hustlers to own their houses. #MbeleNaRuto pic.twitter.com/1JCIyBI2TX
— Captain Dominic Omondi (@CaptainDominicO) July 24, 2020
That would be true only if you can point row of empty houses - but there is a pent up demand for housing. The kind of shitty houses in Nairobi attracting high rent is because there is few decent houses with decent infrastructures.
This was not always the case. During Moi era - NHC/NSSF/NHIF were investing in large housing estates like Nyayo Estates. Those houses were so cheap a low civil servant driver could afford one.
When Jirongo and Mugoya started messing around - it's scared such funds - with 'bottomless' money to invest- and they started investing in equities - and now they are also crying in the toilet.
When NSSF/NHIF/Insurance exited from scene - our housing went Matatu way - INFORMAL. It's been that way for years - leading to fugly housing estates. But like Matatu it's now a source of income for many.
What was missing here is the economies of scale that big housing estates can bring. Now we have chinese contractors who can do Nyayo kind of estates - and this is where we need to tap.If one Chinese - like Great Wall guy - can deliver 2,000 units cheaply at 3M - now imagine Gov backed Chinese contractors. They can deliver houses for even 0.5m. I remember NHC Highrises - houses in 2004 were being sold for 0.6m - the original owners bought it 0.4m. They were on very cheap tenant purchase scheme - where owners paid 4-5k per month - and you find civil servants earning 20k - owning houses. Now that is Impossible Dream.
Uhuru had an idea but he lacked Ruto to do the follow up.
We need Chinese contractors - and Kenya Mortgage - plus all these NHIF/NSSF - back in housing - and if they combined synergies - it would be possible to get brand new well planned housing estates with 2B room house being sold for less than 2m.
And that will mean a Kamau going to buy plots to put housing - will not be able to compete. And instead they will invest in other areas including manufacturing, hotels, minning, name it.
Only in poor countries like Africa do you find most housing is being done informally by anybody. Elsewehere housing schemes are built by big pensions, insurance and gov funds.
The same way we have made huge mess of the transport sector.
Chinese built slums?! Nope, thank you.
Look at how that worked out for Angola.
Huge central planned housing schemes of the kind you are envisioning always end up becoming substandard dwellings few years down the line.
Why pay Chinese when you can employ Kenyan companies to do a better job? Would they allow you to build such sensitive infrastructure that could take employment from local Chinese?, hell no. Only mwafrika is so myopic and unpatriotic as to give his enemies such favors. Chinese won't even allow free access to our avocados. We are stuck with SGR debacle but you want to double down.
....Which follow up? A Kimwarer and Arror "follow-up" where "only Ksh.7 billion" was lost?
Uhuru had an idea but he lacked Ruto to do the follow up....
....Which follow up? A Kimwarer and Arror "follow-up" where "only Ksh.7 billion" was lost?
Uhuru had an idea but he lacked Ruto to do the follow up....
You got jokes. You need to find someone else to front for 2022 hoping you can drop the tribal tag in favor of a public servant who will serve the people.
:D :D :D
He is a comedian, baghdad bob.
Which follow up? A Kimwarer and Arror "follow-up" where "only Ksh.7 billion" was lost?
You got jokes. You need to find someone else to front for 2022 hoping you can drop the tribal tag in favor of a public servant who will serve the people.
There is no housing deficit in kenya. Most kenyans own two places they call home. Only about 700k kenyans are born and raised in nairobi with no rural connectionsHow many nairobeans rent...
There is no housing deficit in kenya. Most kenyans own two places they call home. Only about 700k kenyans are born and raised in nairobi with no rural connectionsHow many nairobeans rent...
Most renters have no ability and will never have or are not interested in building in Nairobi.
The market would solve any shortage as big as claimed. Dr Ndii has looked at the numbers on this and said the claim is hot air. I would trust an economist before I trust hogwash about shortage of 500K units. If there was that shortage it would be solved by the market. Markets are efficient. Jayden is wasting time
Most renters have no ability and will never have or are not interested in building in Nairobi.
The market would solve any shortage as big as claimed. Dr Ndii has looked at the numbers on this and said the claim is hot air. I would trust an economist before I trust hogwash about shortage of 500K units. If there was that shortage it would be solved by the market. Markets are efficient. Jayden is wasting time
It is more about getting a chance to steal than providing housing. Ruto wing of Jubilee is even more avaricious than the GEMA wing. RAO has to come in and rein in these two thieves.
It is more about getting a chance to steal than providing housing. Ruto wing of Jubilee is even more avaricious than the GEMA wing. RAO has to come in and rein in these two thieves.
That would be true only if you can point row of empty houses - but there is a pent up demand for housing. The kind of shitty houses in Nairobi attracting high rent is because there is few decent houses with decent infrastructures.If the argument is that cause alot of people live in squalor there's housing deficit, yes in absolute terms is correct. The question is affordability, most of the government projects you cited were subsidized by taxpayers to make them affordable. Even the Chinese great wall houses haven't all been sold and some buyers now are actually renting out.
This was not always the case. During Moi era - NHC/NSSF/NHIF were investing in large housing estates like Nyayo Estates. Those houses were so cheap a low civil servant driver could afford one.
When Jirongo and Mugoya started messing around - it's scared such funds - with 'bottomless' money to invest- and they started investing in equities - and now they are also crying in the toilet.
When NSSF/NHIF/Insurance exited from scene - our housing went Matatu way - INFORMAL. It's been that way for years - leading to fugly housing estates. But like Matatu it's now a source of income for many.
What was missing here is the economies of scale that big housing estates can bring. Now we have chinese contractors who can do Nyayo kind of estates - and this is where we need to tap.If one Chinese - like Great Wall guy - can deliver 2,000 units cheaply at 3M - now imagine Gov backed Chinese contractors. They can deliver houses for even 0.5m. I remember NHC Highrises - houses in 2004 were being sold for 0.6m - the original owners bought it 0.4m. They were on very cheap tenant purchase scheme - where owners paid 4-5k per month - and you find civil servants earning 20k - owning houses. Now that is Impossible Dream.
Uhuru had an idea but he lacked Ruto to do the follow up.
We need Chinese contractors - and Kenya Mortgage - plus all these NHIF/NSSF - back in housing - and if they combined synergies - it would be possible to get brand new well planned housing estates with 2B room house being sold for less than 2m.
And that will mean a Kamau going to buy plots to put housing - will not be able to compete. And instead they will invest in other areas including manufacturing, hotels, minning, name it.
Only in poor countries like Africa do you find most housing is being done informally by anybody. Elsewehere housing schemes are built by big pensions, insurance and gov funds.
The same way we have made huge mess of the transport sector.There's nothing like housing deficit in kenya, what we have is income deficit. By government borrowing like crazy it guarantees that interest rate on mortages won't be 6% any time soon. Another problem is also expensive construction. Before the chinese started using red soil to build roads, all roads were being constructed using hardcore stores. Red soil is cheaper and readily available plus the roads are more durable. Its about time someone invested in a proper brick manufacturing that would be cheaper than quarry stones. So instead of investing in plots how about investing in building materials.
If the argument is that cause alot of people live in squalor there's housing deficit, yes in absolute terms is correct. The question is affordability, most of the government projects you cited were subsidized by taxpayers to make them affordable. Even the Chinese great wall houses haven't all been sold and some buyers now are actually renting out.
Most kenyans buy plots then build their houses slowly. There only 27k mortgages in kenya, this cause interest rates are so high making them unaffordable.
In eastleign there atleast 4blocks with 100plus units that were initially offered for sale now they're just being rented out. The main question in housing isn't lack of houses but affordability. Solution raise income of buyers or lower cost of housing dramatically.
Thievery has got everything to do with opportunity - and nothing with tribes or persons. Whoever comes in will continue with stealing. They will be immune from DCI/DPP/EACC until they are out of gov or favour.
If Ruto had been allowed to clean up the mess - he would have taken 10% of it - say 10B -out of 70B - but I don't care - the 60B would have provided water for many many generations.
Every Kenya public project has 10% corruption factored into it. Give the ceasar what belong to him. And let us enjoy 90%. Yes ideally 100% would be great..but if we go for 0% or 100% that is stupidity. For now...I say we take 90%.
Why are kenyans able to afford plots and build. Cost will come down if there is economies of scale. This is what is happening in china. Also mortagage rate are ridiculous - considering it's almost risk free. At worse they should be up there with tbills - maybe 8% max.We have about 6 big private companies exit or go banrupt. Gok can build civil servant houses but that where they should stop
So the reforms we need
1) Bring in big contractors who can achieve economies of scale - Chinese. We need to build more Nyayo estate - 5,000-10,000 units estates - and sell them at 1-2m kshs.
2) The Kenya Mortgage Company - Gov funded - who will underwrite those mortages at 6% interest rate.
In short like the current rent people pay should go into mortagage payments - and the landlord or slumlords should find another business to do - like building commercial housing, malls, etc.
Housing is basic human need.If the argument is that cause alot of people live in squalor there's housing deficit, yes in absolute terms is correct. The question is affordability, most of the government projects you cited were subsidized by taxpayers to make them affordable. Even the Chinese great wall houses haven't all been sold and some buyers now are actually renting out.
Most kenyans buy plots then build their houses slowly. There only 27k mortgages in kenya, this cause interest rates are so high making them unaffordable.
In eastleign there atleast 4blocks with 100plus units that were initially offered for sale now they're just being rented out. The main question in housing isn't lack of houses but affordability. Solution raise income of buyers or lower cost of housing dramatically.
Why are kenyans able to afford plots and build. Cost will come down if there is economies of scale. This is what is happening in china. Also mortagage rate are ridiculous - considering it's almost risk free. At worse they should be up there with tbills - maybe 8% max.Mortage isn't risky free. In a country like kenya where informal sector dominate the economy mortage are quite risky. Government subsidizing housing is the worst idea government can come up with.
So the reforms we need
1) Bring in big contractors who can achieve economies of scale - Chinese. We need to build more Nyayo estate - 5,000-10,000 units estates - and sell them at 1-2m kshs.
2) The Kenya Mortgage Company - Gov funded - who will underwrite those mortages at 6% interest rate.
In short like the current rent people pay should go into mortagage payments - and the landlord or slumlords should find another business to do - like building commercial housing, malls, etc.
Housing is basic human need.If the argument is that cause alot of people live in squalor there's housing deficit, yes in absolute terms is correct. The question is affordability, most of the government projects you cited were subsidized by taxpayers to make them affordable. Even the Chinese great wall houses haven't all been sold and some buyers now are actually renting out.
Most kenyans buy plots then build their houses slowly. There only 27k mortgages in kenya, this cause interest rates are so high making them unaffordable.
In eastleign there atleast 4blocks with 100plus units that were initially offered for sale now they're just being rented out. The main question in housing isn't lack of houses but affordability. Solution raise income of buyers or lower cost of housing dramatically.
Mortage isn't risky free. In a country like kenya where informal sector dominate the economy mortage are quite risky. Government subsidizing housing is the worst idea government can come up with.
Land cost is the most expensive input in kenya, that's why condominiums are popular. Stand alone house are mainly built in marginal areas like mavoko, kitengela ruai, ruiru etc, its cheaper to buy a plot there and build slowly. Kenya real estate market is like chinese market, prices are driven up by speculation. Kenyans mainly invest in real estate due to lack of other investments like stocks. The solution is to lower interest rates by being fiscally Conservative and raising standards of living by increasing productivity.
You trickle-down Kibakisque model will get us nowhere. We need revolutionary ideas that transformed china from a bicyle riding rural backwater to what it is now. Part of that was a construction boom - with houses so cheap - every chinese is able to buy 2 or 3 houses. Imagine if houses in Kenya were 1m - most of kenyans will turn from renting to owning 3 or 4 houses.
It can be done. All we need is SCALE by going big on this. When you start delivering 10,000 units a project - the cost will naturally come down.
I think the low risk of mortagage can be secured by something like Kenya Mortagage Ltd.
Uhuru had all this figured out in housing but execution is not there. He think Matiangi can do the magic - but you require talents of Ruto to pull through such serious projects
You trickle-down Kibakisque model will get us nowhere. We need revolutionary ideas that transformed china from a bicyle riding rural backwater to what it is now. Part of that was a construction boom - with houses so cheap - every chinese is able to buy 2 or 3 houses. Imagine if houses in Kenya were 1m - most of kenyans will turn from renting to owning 3 or 4 houses.Chinese don't have property rights, land was forcefully confiscated from poor to induce the property boom. Government creating a mortgage company is a dumb idea, what's needed is a securalization law to package mortgages as security that can be sold to investors. This would increase liquidity in the market lowering interest rates, but also government has to be fiscally responsible. Instead of people owning 3 homes they can buy mortgage backed securities.
It can be done. All we need is SCALE by going big on this. When you start delivering 10,000 units a project - the cost will naturally come down.
I think the low risk of mortagage can be secured by something like Kenya Mortagage Ltd.
Uhuru had all this figured out in housing but execution is not there. He think Matiangi can do the magic - but you require talents of Ruto to pull through such serious projectsMortage isn't risky free. In a country like kenya where informal sector dominate the economy mortage are quite risky. Government subsidizing housing is the worst idea government can come up with.
Land cost is the most expensive input in kenya, that's why condominiums are popular. Stand alone house are mainly built in marginal areas like mavoko, kitengela ruai, ruiru etc, its cheaper to buy a plot there and build slowly. Kenya real estate market is like chinese market, prices are driven up by speculation. Kenyans mainly invest in real estate due to lack of other investments like stocks. The solution is to lower interest rates by being fiscally Conservative and raising standards of living by increasing productivity.
Pundit Economic Theory
Government is the answer to all problems.. You want infrastructure let GOK build it by borrowing or over taxing
You want to increase demand for Mortgages - Let GOK create a subsidized pyramid scheme in housing
Bottom line Pundit wants a NORTH KOREA type of Economy. North Korea Infrastructure is super developed. However there are no cars to use it and the few trams there there there is no one to ride them.. Pundit won't mind a Kim Jo Yung of Kenya to emerge
I am for Chinese-Ethiopia model that has lifted many out of poverty. We cannot use trickle-down. At our stage of under development - we need BIG GOV - once we have bridged the infrastructure deficit - gov can go small.
In fact If I was PORK i would float 100B dollar century Eurobond - and fix everything.
And then leave the economy to pay for it in 100yrs.
Once we have fixed the hardware - we can start thinking about HK software issues.
Ethiopia is shithole. Nothing works in that place.
Pundit Economic Theory
Government is the answer to all problems.. You want infrastructure let GOK build it by borrowing or over taxing
You want to increase demand for Mortgages - Let GOK create a subsidized pyramid scheme in housing
Bottom line Pundit wants a NORTH KOREA type of Economy. North Korea Infrastructure is super developed. However there are no cars to use it and the few trams there there there is no one to ride them.. Pundit won't mind a Kim Jo Yung of Kenya to emerge
I am for Chinese-Ethiopia model that has lifted many out of poverty. We cannot use trickle-down. At our stage of under development - we need BIG GOV - once we have bridged the infrastructure deficit - gov can go small.
In fact If I was PORK i would float 100B dollar century Eurobond - and fix everything.
And then leave the economy to pay for it in 100yrs.
Once we have fixed the hardware - we can start thinking about HK software issues.
I am for Chinese-Ethiopia model that has lifted many out of poverty. We cannot use trickle-down. At our stage of under development - we need BIG GOV - once we have bridged the infrastructure deficit - gov can go small.
In fact If I was PORK i would float 100B dollar century Eurobond - and fix everything.
And then leave the economy to pay for it in 100yrs.
Once we have fixed the hardware - we can start thinking about HK software issues.
Ethiopia's command and control development model fell flat on its face. EPRDF offloaded their economic mess on Abiy after it became clear shit was going to hit the fan. They are going through a hard currency crisis, their begging for loans from the IMF. Why emulate such a failed model?
Even China's vaunted model is built on smoke and mirrors, their massage their GDP figures, build ghost towns, subsidize inefficient state run enterprises, steal land from peasants, build highways to nowhere. It is unsustainable, China is in trouble.
Read this article, pundit.
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
I am for Chinese-Ethiopia model that has lifted many out of poverty. We cannot use trickle-down. At our stage of under development - we need BIG GOV - once we have bridged the infrastructure deficit - gov can go small.
In fact If I was PORK i would float 100B dollar century Eurobond - and fix everything.
And then leave the economy to pay for it in 100yrs.
Once we have fixed the hardware - we can start thinking about HK software issues.Pundit Economic Theory
Government is the answer to all problems.. You want infrastructure let GOK build it by borrowing or over taxing
You want to increase demand for Mortgages - Let GOK create a subsidized pyramid scheme in housing
Bottom line Pundit wants a NORTH KOREA type of Economy. North Korea Infrastructure is super developed. However there are no cars to use it and the few trams there there there is no one to ride them.. Pundit won't mind a Kim Jo Yung of Kenya to emerge
Ethiopia's command and control development model fell flat on its face. EPRDF offloaded their economic mess on Abiy after it became clear shit was going to hit the fan. They are going through a hard currency crisis, their begging for loans from the IMF. Why emulate such a failed model?
Even China's vaunted model is built on smoke and mirrors, their massage their GDP figures, build ghost towns, subsidize inefficient state run enterprises, steal land from peasants, build highways to nowhere. It is unsustainable, China is in trouble.
Read this article, pundit.
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/