That would be true only if you can point row of empty houses - but there is a pent up demand for housing. The kind of shitty houses in Nairobi attracting high rent is because there is few decent houses with decent infrastructures.
This was not always the case. During Moi era - NHC/NSSF/NHIF were investing in large housing estates like Nyayo Estates. Those houses were so cheap a low civil servant driver could afford one.
When Jirongo and Mugoya started messing around - it's scared such funds - with 'bottomless' money to invest- and they started investing in equities - and now they are also crying in the toilet.
When NSSF/NHIF/Insurance exited from scene - our housing went Matatu way - INFORMAL. It's been that way for years - leading to fugly housing estates. But like Matatu it's now a source of income for many.
What was missing here is the economies of scale that big housing estates can bring. Now we have chinese contractors who can do Nyayo kind of estates - and this is where we need to tap.If one Chinese - like Great Wall guy - can deliver 2,000 units cheaply at 3M - now imagine Gov backed Chinese contractors. They can deliver houses for even 0.5m. I remember NHC Highrises - houses in 2004 were being sold for 0.6m - the original owners bought it 0.4m. They were on very cheap tenant purchase scheme - where owners paid 4-5k per month - and you find civil servants earning 20k - owning houses. Now that is Impossible Dream.
Uhuru had an idea but he lacked Ruto to do the follow up.
We need Chinese contractors - and Kenya Mortgage - plus all these NHIF/NSSF - back in housing - and if they combined synergies - it would be possible to get brand new well planned housing estates with 2B room house being sold for less than 2m.
And that will mean a Kamau going to buy plots to put housing - will not be able to compete. And instead they will invest in other areas including manufacturing, hotels, minning, name it.
Only in poor countries like Africa do you find most housing is being done informally by anybody. Elsewehere housing schemes are built by big pensions, insurance and gov funds.
The same way we have made huge mess of the transport sector.
There's nothing like housing deficit in kenya, what we have is income deficit. By government borrowing like crazy it guarantees that interest rate on mortages won't be 6% any time soon. Another problem is also expensive construction. Before the chinese started using red soil to build roads, all roads were being constructed using hardcore stores. Red soil is cheaper and readily available plus the roads are more durable. Its about time someone invested in a proper brick manufacturing that would be cheaper than quarry stones. So instead of investing in plots how about investing in building materials.
