Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on January 25, 2020, 06:19:55 PM
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Like before 2013 - Raila strategy was ICC - it fell flat. His 2022 strategy is to entice Uhuru to continue but as Raila handyman. Will Uhuru bite. He says no
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/I-wont-go-for-another-term--Uhuru-tells-elders/1064-5430982-lkyhd6/index.html
“He said he will not vie for the presidency in 2022 and he will be an ordinary raia (citizen) like us. He said he will not waste even a single minute after his term comes to an end and that is why he is keen on pushing for BBI that will distribute the national cake to all Kenyans,” said another elder
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He equally told Sagana and some Gema wazee at Gicheha Farm that he doesn't mind becoming PM.
I don't mind PM post, says Uhuru
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001349583/i-don-t-mind-pm-position-says-uhuru
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I am not sure who is angling for PM? Him or Matiangi or Waiguru? Let us wait for Uhuru to turn from a respected head of state and gov into an executive prime minister with Raila as the commander in chief and head of state. That will be something. A new kenya :) - a Lazy drunkard will be expected to answer questions like why the Chief of Kapsenger location brutalized some village and what action if any gov was going to undertake.
Well Uhuru is too young to retire :) might as well become MP of Ichaweri or the MCA.
If Raila loves Uhuru - there is only one way out - remove the term limits - become Uhuru Deputy President - or Non-Executive PM - that I would BELIEVE IT.
But giving Uhuru - a demeaning job - after being PORK - obviously is a ruse only believable by low IQ people like Robina
He equally told Sagana and some Gema wazee at Gicheha Farm that he doesn't mind PM post.
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That hubris - thinking only Ruto can do political gymnastics and not others. Presidents become PM all over the world - nothing special nor strange about it.
I am not sure who is angling for PM? Him or Matiangi or Waiguru? Let us wait for Uhuru to turn from a respected head of state and gov into an executive prime minister with Raila as the commander in chief and head of state. That will be something. A new kenya.
Well Uhuru is too young to retire :) might as well become MP of Ichaweri or the MCA.
He equally told Sagana and some Gema wazee at Gicheha Farm that he doesn't mind PM post.
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Only in Russia - where Putin basically run the shows. Medved is just his poodle. No where do you have two fre-nemies do that. You want Uhuru to turn from Head of Gov & State - into Raila boy in parliament ( a glorified DUALE with lot more work to do)? That is very crazy.
Let us have this BBI 2.0 so we can laugh :)
If you love Uhuru like Sonko did - remove term limits - Raila goes for his non-executive PM - and Uhuru retains PORK. That will sell in GEMA. Ruto will be in serious trouble. That is probably what Uhuru is afraid to say - hence BBI 1.0 which we know he ordered edited. Raila and team had your parliamentary and executive PM floating - and grapevine is Uhuru forced Haji to make final changes...and is excuse was Ruto & GEMA to buy it :)
But now you're telling GEMA - trust Raila - risk the lives & properties of your 1m diaspora as your inevitably go to war with Ruto/Kalenjin - so you can have a parliamentary system that don't favour you - Uhuru won't win (GEMA don't have the MPS) but Uhuru will be made by Raila the Executive PM. If he falls out with Raila - parliament will kick him out the same evening :) :)
It crazy - even if Uhuru was to be that desperate - to be ready to do any job to earn a living - wira n wira - that is a little too much.
Uhuru wants to retire on a HIGH - not on a low like a dog. He wants to retire as former president and enjoy state funded perks for rest of his life.
That hubris - thinking only Ruto can do political gymnastics and not others. Presidents become PM all over the world - nothing special nor strange about it.
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Once again you conflate your wishes with reality. Gema consent is not necessary to reform - they are a minority - half of them and Ruto himself have already capitulated. Exec PM will fly anywhere once it a reality - tough luck convincing Mt Kenya Ruto is a better CEO because Uhuru is lazy. :)
I think you need to google "trojan"
Only in Russia - where Putin basically run the shows. Medved is just his poodle. No where do you have two fre-nemies do that. You want Uhuru to turn from Head of Gov & State - into Raila boy in parliament ( a glorified DUALE with lot more work to do)? That is very crazy.
Let us have this BBI 2.0 so we can laugh :)
If you love Uhuru like Sonko did - remove term limits - Raila goes for his non-executive PM - and Uhuru retains PORK. That will sell in GEMA. Ruto will be in serious trouble.
But now you're telling GEMA - trust Raila - risk the lives & properties of your 1m diaspora - so you can have a parliamentary system you won't win (GEMA don't have the MPS) but Uhuru will be made by Raila the Executive PM.
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You lost me there on GEMA. I thought we were analyzing the possible moves by Uhuru? Himuselfu. Yes GEMA consent is required - because Ruto(RV) definitely not for your reforms (Not now when they are about to inherit PORK). So GEMA +RV = JUBILEE= WITH 3 Elections won so far - past 50%.
Murkomen in simple English said - if GEMA wants parliamentary system - then RV have no problem. It another way of saying NO referendum :).
Unless of course GEMA wants a system where they will have what 35 mps from Central plus 10 Mps from Meru +embu plus 10 mps (Big iff) in Nairobi and another 10 in RV diaspora. Those are 65mps in parliament with 350. That is like 18% of kenya.Kalenjin alone (not even including other kamatusas) are about that number of Mps :) - leave alone if Ruto manages to keep the alliance with other pastoralists.
In short - don't assume you know what Uhuru wants - :)
Once again you conflate your wishes with reality. Gema consent is not necessary to reform - they are a minority - half of them and Ruto himself have already capitulated. Exec PM will fly anywhere once it a reality - tough luck convincing Mt Kenya Ruto is a better CEO because Uhuru is lazy. :)
I think you need to google "trojan"
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Uhuru is being disingenuous here. Why claim BBI is the one to "distribute the national cake.." while Constitution 2010 has all the elements if indeed he is serious.
Second, the report talk of Gicheha Farm meeting where Uhuru reportedly said as much. From my own personal information (and am talking about 3 elders known to me and who attended and one was among organizers), they were left confused by Uhuru. Because he was urging them to support BBI and when they wanted to know "watu wetu watapata nini..." Uhuru was categorical that Gema will get a Big Seat (Gikuyu nĩmukuona gĩtĩ kĩnene... "). They got confused cause if Uhuru is PRESIDENT what other" big seat" was he referring to?
In short from my own personal knowledge that newspaper report may or may not be accurate. Or maybe it's one of those games NIS play to insert some stories to gauge reaction.
Anyway, Right now am congratulating TangaTanga Team and Ruto for sidetracking Raila and Kieleweke Team. Once Ruto team has "embraced BBI meetings" and even referendum if necessary, what will Kieleweke come up with? Their scheme to keep Ruto as "the opposer of excellent BBI" has now been derailed.
Like before 2013 - Raila strategy was ICC - it fell flat. His 2022 strategy is to entice Uhuru to continue but as Raila handyman. Will Uhuru bite. He says no
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/I-wont-go-for-another-term--Uhuru-tells-elders/1064-5430982-lkyhd6/index.html
“He said he will not vie for the presidency in 2022 and he will be an ordinary raia (citizen) like us. He said he will not waste even a single minute after his term comes to an end and that is why he is keen on pushing for BBI that will distribute the national cake to all Kenyans,” said another elder
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You have run all these math and stats before - clinging to Uhurutopia - and lost. Instead of your theories let us stick to reality. Uhuru Kenyatta is going nowhere - we know this because he is pulling all punches to aid Raila and BBI. Embarassing Ruto and cutting him to size. Hammering his midgets hard. GEMA leaders have been leaving the Ruto bandwagon one by one - Wa Iria, Waiguru, Lee Kinyanjui, Waititu, Muthomi Njuki, Irungu Kang'ata, Sabina Chege,Kanini Kega - the list is long. Now Uhuru has banned Tangatanga from holding rallies in Mt Kenya. You are delusional to think this has no effect on the ground.
It is not the first time Kenyatta put the family first over "his people". In the 60s he shipped them off to RV and grabbed their ancestral land in Kiambu. Some he let Delameres and Egertons keep. All for self- aggrandizement. Today what he is doing while bad for Ruto and perhaps the Kikuyu - is good for everyone else outside Kikuyu and Kalenjin. In fact good for Kenya and patriotic. Kenya is greater than Kikuyu and Kalenjin.
You are right I don't know what Uhuru wants. Do you? I got these reported news - all you got is a hunch that BBI 2.0 is a trick on Raila - to stop him from throwing stones :D I said it, you are delusional.
You lost me there on GEMA. I thought we were analyzing the possible moves by Uhuru? Himuselfu. Yes GEMA consent is required - because Ruto(RV) definitely not for your reforms (Not now when they are about to inherit PORK). So GEMA +RV = JUBILEE= WITH 3 Elections won so far - past 50%.
Murkomen in simple English said - if GEMA wants parliamentary system - then RV have no problem. It another way of saying NO referendum :).
Unless of course GEMA wants a system where they will have what 35 mps from Central plus 10 Mps from Meru +embu plus 10 mps (Big iff) in Nairobi and another 10 in RV diaspora. Those are 65mps in parliament with 350. That is like 18% of kenya.Kalenjin alone (not even including other kamatusas) are about that number of Mps :) - leave alone if Ruto manages to keep the alliance with other pastoralists.
In short - don't assume you know what Uhuru wants - :)
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RV Pundit - is Uhurutopia still kosher or did you finally run out of blames to hip on Nancy Jezebel Gitau?
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Executive Prime Minister duhh. In place of useless "Supreme Leader" or VP. Especially when someone has rigged himself into the center of Mt Kenya. It would be very foolish for Uhuru and Gema to hand over power to Ruto under the present circumstances. Why didn't Ruto just let Raila keep Kalenjin in 2012 and in addition support him to be president? What makes him think others are so stupid to do that if not hubris? Uhuru of course is not stupid and Ruto had it coming.
Uhuru is being disingenuous here. Why claim BBI is the one to "distribute the national cake.." while Constitution 2010 has all the elements if indeed he is serious.
Second, the report talk of Gicheha Farm meeting where Uhuru reportedly said as much. From my own personal information (and am talking about 3 elders known to me and who attended and one was among organizers), they were left confused by Uhuru. Because he was urging them to support BBI and when they wanted to know "watu wetu watapata nini..." Uhuru was categorical that Gema will get a Big Seat (Gikuyu nĩmukuona gĩtĩ kĩnene... "). They got confused cause if Uhuru is PRESIDENT what other "big seat" was he referring to?
In short from my own personal knowledge that newspaper report may or may not be accurate. Or maybe it's one of those games NIS play to insert some stories to gauge reaction.
I don't follow... Tangatanga already "accepted" BBI at Bomas. What they are trying to do now is stop Handshake team - Raila and Kieleweke - from first gaining ground and secondly more important from inserting parliamentary into BBI 2.0. Both are a flop because Raila and Uhuru control BBI taskforce - I read even the drivers and tea girls are NIS - Ruto has no input. Those wazee could as well just sit in State House and pretend to compile the report there. It is a pure charade. On gaining ground, so long as Ruto capitulates on parliamentary, there is no difference. Or well he could do another 180 and oppose :) - we are used to the gymnastics now - but the layout is not looking good for that. Then Uhuru will run for PM with Raila backing. Ruto will have a long list of Kiunjuris, Duales or Kalonzos to pick from for his ticket. Heck they already registered The Service Party or something - with flower symbol like Narc Kenya - Kiunjuri is party leader.
Anyway, Right now am congratulating TangaTanga Team and Ruto for sidetracking Raila and Kieleweke Team. Once Ruto team has "embraced BBI meetings" and even referendum if necessary, what will Kieleweke come up with? Their scheme to keep Ruto as "the opposer of excellent BBI" has now been derailed.
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Back in Uhurutopia
Push and pull rocks UhuRuto's Jubilee Party over internal elections
• Deputy President's allies push for a takeover of Jubilee party while the President's men want the elections shelfed.
• Term of most officials ended last November with the party Constitution requiring that new officials be elected by March this year.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/CsmqqABTfKB64Og0oIhV3XCrLg42xL7XJur8bGLjhHcL4ODU_28RNAIOOJSi1hbecEgMzlCRmR3bNZv738eHfkO-qdSF2w=s650)
Deputy President William Ruto and Presidnet Uhuru Kenyatta during the launch of Jubilee Party.
Image X FILES
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-01-25-push-and-pull-rocks-uhurutos-jubilee-party-over-internal-elections/
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Robina believe me there are a lot of people from Mt. Kenya who don't view Executive Prime Minister as "big seat...". Actually in reality Executive PM is really a hard job of trying to convince MPs and the population and then fighting to form some Coalition etc etc. It's very demanding. Then Executive PM has limited powers to actually get things done.
Truth be told, should Uhuru implement Parliamentary System the worst losers will be Mt. Kenyans by far. No matter how one looks at it, GEMA will be throwing themselves into being PERPETUAL MINORITY when forming any government. It's a Kenyan political historical fact that IT IS EASIER for other communities/tribes TO ISOLATE MT. KENYA politically than it is for Mt. Kenya to get a dependable alliance. Under the current system incorporating Mt. Kenya becomes political necessity because of NUMBERS. But with Parliamentary System they will be isolated till kingdom come.
Uhuru Kenyatta will have "sold his people" to perpetual political oblivion just because HE HIMSELF DOESN'T WANT TO GO HOME..
Executive Prime Minister duhh. In place of useless "Supreme Leader" or VP. Especially when someone has rigged himself into the center of Mt Kenya. It would be very foolish for Uhuru and Gema to hand over power to Ruto under the present circumstances. Why didn't Ruto just let Raila keep Kalenjin in 2012 and in addition support him to be president? What makes him think others are so stupid to do that if not hubris? Uhuru of course is not stupid and Ruto had it coming.
Uhuru is being disingenuous here. Why claim BBI is the one to "distribute the national cake.." while Constitution 2010 has all the elements if indeed he is serious.
Second, the report talk of Gicheha Farm meeting where Uhuru reportedly said as much. From my own personal information (and am talking about 3 elders known to me and who attended and one was among organizers), they were left confused by Uhuru. Because he was urging them to support BBI and when they wanted to know "watu wetu watapata nini..." Uhuru was categorical that Gema will get a Big Seat (Gikuyu nĩmukuona gĩtĩ kĩnene... "). They got confused cause if Uhuru is PRESIDENT what other
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You are right: BBI Report is a foregone conclusion. What's happening with campaigns and meetings are just political theaters to keep the sheeple in line and sufficiently excited.
Forget Kiunjuri. What's needed in Gema is Mũtongoria Jamba (a brave leader) to take on Uhuru. He just stand his ground that Uhuru should finish his term in two years BUT he should let Mt. Kenya people have another incoming leader who should make "political deals" with others. Uhuru is misleading people because he want to extend his 10yrs in power through the backdoor. That is not a leader to negotiate for future...
Tragedy is currently Uhuru Kenyatta still dominates. There is no alternative to him. Only some regional noisemakers who even if they have good points/ideas they cannot be considered as alternative to Uhuru.
A Uhuru Successor is desperately needed to lead people into making sensible political alliance.
I don't follow... Tangatanga already "accepted" BBI at Bomas. What they are trying to do now is stop Handshake team - Raila and Kieleweke - from first gaining ground and secondly more important from inserting parliamentary into BBI 2.0. Both are a flop because Raila and Uhuru control BBI taskforce - I read even the drivers and tea girls are NIS - Ruto has no input. Those wazee could as well just sit in State House and pretend to compile the report there. It is a pure charade. On gaining ground, so long as Ruto capitulates on parliamentary, there is no difference. Or well he could do another 180 and oppose :) - we are used to the gymnastics now - but the layout is not looking good for that. Then Uhuru will run for PM with Raila backing. Ruto will have a long list of Kiunjuris, Duales or Kalonzos to pick from for his ticket. Heck they already registered The Service Party or something - with flower symbol like Narc Kenya - Kiunjuri is party leader.
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By rejecting the parliamentary system, isn't William Ruto equally "selling out his people"? Seeing they are advantaged hugely by it. Why does this analysis start and end with Uhuru and Gema? Your concern is suspect.
Kenya was parliamentary ab initio. Lancaster was the UK model of devolved parliamentary system. All we needed to do was kick out the governor-general from Buckingham and replace him with a rotational president ala Malaysia. Otherwise 3 or 4 presidents from one tribe is simply unhealthy. The Kikuyu are favored currently - competition is simply fairness not discrimination. We are correcting a mis-design not creating a new fault. That only 2 tribes have enjoyed ultimate power - and the one by sheer luck! - is an indictment of the system.
It is good you note the Exec PM is a tough JOB. That's right. Strip the leadership of ceremony and deity status and let true leaders emerge. Of course you are being disingenuous cause the alternative is the worthless VP. Last time the naive, docile Moi took over for a quarter century. Uhuru could easily quit and Raila takes over being from the same coalition. They could even swap. Better, Ruto can beat them hands down with his massive advantage, no? The important item is the fairer, more balanced system. Not the individual.
Robina believe me there are a lot of people from Mt. Kenya who don't view Executive Prime Minister as "big seat...". Actually in reality Executive PM is really a hard job of trying to convince MPs and the population and then fighting to form some Coalition etc etc. It's very demanding. Then Executive PM has limited powers to actually get things done.
Truth be told, should Uhuru implement Parliamentary System the worst losers will be Mt. Kenyans by far. No matter how one looks at it, GEMA will be throwing themselves into being PERPETUAL MINORITY when forming any government. It's a Kenyan political historical fact that IT IS EASIER for other communities/tribes TO ISOLATE MT. KENYA politically than it is for Mt. Kenya to get a dependable alliance. Under the current system incorporating Mt. Kenya becomes political necessity because of NUMBERS. But with Parliamentary System they will be isolated till kingdom come.
Uhuru Kenyatta will have "sold his people" to perpetual political oblivion just because HE HIMSELF DOESN'T WANT TO GO HOME..
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If you look carefully you will see especially Kikuyu numbers are dwindling fast. Kikuyu only lose in the short term redeemed by Uhuru 2.0. Kalenjin and Somali are the losers in the medium and long terms. Either way those tribal lenses are very narrow- minded. Think Kenya not Kikuyu. I don't care much for Uhuru but his lagabout is a fair price for a better Kenya.
Ruto killed the Gema upstarts in his backstabbing schemes. Still if Uhuru wanted he could easily promote anyone including Kiunjuri, PK, etc - he does not want to which indicates his intent. Let us say Ruto exacerbated the problem for himself yet Governor Kabogo of Kiambu or Governor PK of Nairobi would not trounce Kenyatta who is the bird in hand. You and Pundit are naive thinking Gema will desert Uhuru for Kiunjuri/Ruto - what precedent do you have for that? Why didn't Kalenjin abandon Moi in 1992 - instead happily extending his 14 years to 24? 8)
Gema are better off with Uhuru 2.0 than nothing - which is what a VP is. You are drawing a false equivalence of PM- vs - President. It is PM vs nothing. Uhuru 2.0 only causes a sour taste in Ruto and Kalenjin because it is their turn at the till. Non-GEMA see Uhuru for parliamentary as a fair trade. I don't think say Duale, Kalonzo or Mudavadi are simply angling for the position of DPM but also a fairer shot for their people. Kiunjuri will be touted as a sell-out who wants to hand over power to an alien like Njonjo did with Moi. Unless Ruto fronts Kiunjuri for PM it is a very bad gamble to bet against Uhuru in Mt Kenya.
You are right: BBI Report is a foregone conclusion. What's happening with campaigns and meetings are just political theaters to keep the sheeple in line and sufficiently excited.
Forget Kiunjuri. What's needed in Gema is Mũtongoria Jamba (a brave leader) to take on Uhuru. He just stand his ground that Uhuru should finish his term in two years BUT he should let Mt. Kenya people have another incoming leader who should make "political deals" with others. Uhuru is misleading people because he want to extend his 10yrs in power through the backdoor. That is not a leader to negotiate for future...
Tragedy is currently Uhuru Kenyatta still dominates. There is no alternative to him. Only some regional noisemakers who even if they have good points/ideas they cannot be considered as alternative to Uhuru.
A Uhuru Successor is desperately needed to lead people into making sensible political alliance.
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Pundit what's with the dynamic duo meeting all day? Another Kabiniet reshuffle coming up?
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Ask Robina - those two are not supposed to be meeting anymore. They are done.
Pundit what's with the dynamic duo meeting all day? Another Kabiniet reshuffle coming up?
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What meeting? Nothing in the news. Anyway I thought they would be attending Jubilee PG in Naivasha.
Ask Robina - those two are not supposed to be meeting anymore. They are done.
Pundit what's with the dynamic duo meeting all day? Another Kabiniet reshuffle coming up?
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173 MPs held the PG..tuju can keep the shell
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173 total of MPs, senators, MCAs, aides and nobodies. The Waititu vote few days ago told us a few things about Ruto numbers.
173 MPs held the PG..tuju can keep the shell
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Pundit so what was the resolution of this Ruto super-majority? To continue stalking Raila and BBI rallies :)
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Pundit so what was the resolution of this Ruto super-majority? To continue stalking Raila and BBI rallies :)
To increase judiciary budgetary allocation from 15B to 105B
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The 5hrs meeting Robina.. how did you miss it
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173 MPs with 37 apologies..look like Tuju run a shell with 10 kikuyu MPs and kutuny .https://newsstand.standardmedia.co.ke/
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Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.
And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.
In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.
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At least Ruto has a strategy and support of his own - Raila strategy ends or starts with enticing Uhuru to go for a laughable PM that can only bring him ridicule & scorn (already his people seem his as son -of a bia.tch) -position instead of retiring to be a respected former president.
Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.
And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.
In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.
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That same old "they are playing Raila". Let see if Ruto imaginary numbers can save Waititu. Isn't it this a fair check - since Ruto control 90% Jubilee he has majority senators. It should be a walk in the park to save his groupie.
At least Ruto has a strategy and support of his own - Raila strategy ends or starts with enticing Uhuru to go for a laughable PM that can only bring him ridicule & scorn (already his people seem his as son -of a bia.tch) -position instead of retiring to be a respected former president.
Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.
And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.
In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.
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Robina,
We agreed to disagree whether Parliamentary system is better for Kenya. Worse, the Coast declaration then introduced Federal government! We need another thread for that.
Second, whereas Gema is advantaged by the current system, Parliamentary System WILL NOT LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD. It will SHIFT advantage to the so called Pastoralist Region. Kalenjins are NATURAL leaders of this group. So why would Gema, in the name of making Uhuru PM, just shift advantage to someone else? Indeed, it's recipe for worse chaos where you have minorities dominating majority.
Do your maths and analysis. You may support Raila but he must be deluded if he thinks Parliamentary System/Federal government is better for his base. It isn't. For one Raila can only be assured of his Luo Nyanza and some part of Western. Check how many MPs are those. The rest is dicey.
Then Federalism comes with regional nationalism aka ethnic enclaves. Luos are probably the second most spread tribe in Kenya after Gema therefore Federalism will hinder that. Then don't forget Gema homeland (larger central) is "small area" given the population and so is Nyanza. The so called "Pastoralists tribes" occupy large swathes of land with relatively low population: and that forms "future lands" for Kenyans to settle and spread. Federalism simply would hinder that: These are some of the reasons that made Jomo/Kenyatta and others reject Parliamentary/Federalism. Very sound reasons.
And you cannot THINK OF KENYA IN ISOLATION OF IT'S ETHNIC DIVERSITY and how they relate or may relate in any system of government. Claiming to care/consider about ONLY KENYA without such issues is simply engaging in abstraction.
If you look carefully you will see especially Kikuyu numbers are dwindling fast. Kikuyu only lose in the short term redeemed by Uhuru 2.0. Kalenjin and Somali are the losers in the medium and long terms. Either way those tribal lenses are very narrow- minded. Think Kenya not Kikuyu. I don't care much for Uhuru but his lagabout is a fair price for a better Kenya.
Ruto killed the Gema upstarts in his backstabbing schemes. Still if Uhuru wanted he could easily promote anyone including Kiunjuri, PK, etc - he does not want to which indicates his intent. Let us say Ruto exacerbated the problem for himself yet Governor Kabogo of Kiambu or Governor PK of Nairobi would not trounce Kenyatta who is the bird in hand. You and Pundit are naive thinking Gema will desert Uhuru for Kiunjuri/Ruto - what precedent do you have for that? Why didn't Kalenjin abandon Moi in 1992 - instead happily extending his 14 years to 24? 8)
Gema are better off with Uhuru 2.0 than nothing - which is what a VP is. You are drawing a false equivalence of PM- vs - President. It is PM vs nothing. Uhuru 2.0 only causes a sour taste in Ruto and Kalenjin because it is their turn at the till. Non-GEMA see Uhuru for parliamentary as a fair trade. I don't think say Duale, Kalonzo or Mudavadi are simply angling for the position of DPM but also a fairer shot for their people. Kiunjuri will be touted as a sell-out who wants to hand over power to an alien like Njonjo did with
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Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.
Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.
Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.
Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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Garlic is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later :). It's all about selfish (short-term) interests. GEMA and RV interests are aligned for different reasons. Those two coalitions are going to make your dreams about the constitution reforms a pipe :).
Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.
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And yet Kalenjin will not dump Ruto for trading his short-term goals for their longterm advantage? Gema must be special to hold Uhuru to a higher standard. 8) Do you see my pessimism of Gema backing Ruto over Uhuru about some math most barely grasp? Not happening. Mt Kenya Tangatanga greenhorns are mlolongo products that don't speak for Gema.
Garliv is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later :). It's all about selfish (short-term) interests.
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Robina, when you analyse Kenyan politics you will realize Kalenjin Nation is at the center of either system. Given its numbers as one of the top 4 big tribe in Kenya, the Presidential system is fair and manageable to them. Similarly Parliamentary System would enhance their advantage further. That is why under current system Ruto, a Kalenjin, has an excellent chance to be President. And with Parliamentary system, the Kalenjin would easily adopt and have more advantage than Gema or Luos.
It's good to analyse Kenyan communities and where they seat in the big schemes of things especially the Big Five.
NB: Why would Ruto/Kalenjin seek parliamentary when at the moment they are at the forefront? Why would he antagonise Gema when they are backing him even under Uhuru's boots?
Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.
Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.
Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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Precisely. Nobody wants any tweaks on the Jubilee coalition that has been winning and stable. If Uhuru badly wants the PM or something to do post 2022 - he can be accommodated within Jubilee.
Robina, when you analyse Kenyan politics you will realize Kalenjin Nation is at the center of either system. Given its numbers as one of the top 4 big tribe in Kenya, the Presidential system is fair and manageable to them. Similarly Parliamentary System would enhance their advantage further. That is why under current system Ruto, a Kalenjin, has an excellent chance to be President. And with Parliamentary system, the Kalenjin would easily adopt and have more advantage than Gema or Luos.
It's good to analyse Kenyan communities and where they seat in the big schemes of things especially the Big Five.
NB: Why would Ruto/Kalenjin seek parliamentary when at the moment they are at the forefront? Why would he antagonise Gema when they are backing him even under Uhuru's boots?
Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.
Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.
Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.
Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".
Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....
And yet Kalenjin will not dump Ruto for trading his short-term goals for their longterm advantage? Gema must be special to hold Uhuru to a higher standard. 8) Do you see my pessimism of Gema backing Ruto over Uhuru about some math most barely grasp? Not happening. Mt Kenya Tangatanga greenhorns are mlolongo products that don't speak for Gema.
Garliv is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later :). It's all about selfish (short-term) interests.
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I don't think you get it. The party leader is automatically the PM. MP's don't vote on that. Only change in party leadership changes the PM. If you impeach the PM you go for elections - so it can't be for parochial or corrupt reasons. Donge? Study Israel, UK, Germany, Australia, RSA, name it.
So you see Uhuru only needs to be leader of the registered Handshake coalition. Once he is PM - he can use the power to line up support among those groups you imagine will impeach him. Same as the Handshake now where Ruto is DP with a majority of Jubilee MPs yet can't do anything despite endless matharao.
PM is about accountability - no hiding in State House, explaining and debating publicly and adequately the GoK policies. And separation of power - no assenting/vetoing laws, refusing to swear judges, and abusing deity status to escape scrutiny. In short parliamentary takes away impunity.
PM does not report to the president who is separate head of state - the residual power where mandate rests to avoid vacuum or chaos. All 3 arms of GoK become squarely equal once the state is separated from the Executive.
About influencers and foot soldiers, Ruto's Mt Kenya following is wearing out rapidly. He has zero governors now. 3 or 4 senators - Kihika, Kindiki, Linturi. A place like Kiambu the MCAs firing Waititu and supporting Nyoro indicates Tangatanga lack of influence. Ruto's painstaking clinging onto Uhurutopia or Jubilee unity says alot about his fear of Uhuru influence. Otherwise he would overthrow him in Jubilee with his superior numbers.
As soon as Uhuru 2.0 is formally declared, Ruto will be abandoned heartlessly. Those MPs are unsure about BBI outcome and they are enjoying his handouts. I pity Ruto because he has no control of the wazee. He is at Raila and Uhuru's mercy. There is no magic he can use to beat tried & tested tribalism to beat Uhuru in Mt Kenya. Mlolongo is the biggest blunder of his career.
Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.
Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".
Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....
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I have always considered ODM support for Parliamentary Federalism system as opportunism. If however you have any ideological and intellectual argument for its support, then kindly avail it.
And how it would actually work better than what we have.
Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.
Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.
Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.
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My case for parliamentary federalism is all over this blog. Including the empirical need for regional economic blocks (REBs) and even the National Health Service (NHS) even if transitional. There are synergies and economies of scale to be gained from such REBs. We have seen Mt Kenya counties attempt to do this informally.
No, while all politicians are opportunist, ODM is pretty ideological complete with socialist policies. Maybe only Kanu can boast better credentials. Definitely can't be compared with radarless Jubilee.
I have always considered ODM support for Parliamentary Federalism system as opportunism. If however you have any ideological and intellectual argument for its support, then kindly avail it.
And how it would actually work better than what we have.
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Actually i do get it. Very much so. It doesn't matter whether you form your own party or be the leader of some party with Raila. Similar dynamics are at work.
Eg... If Uhuru is chosen to be a leader of say BBI Party and yet at the election his base doesn't support him meaning HE BRINGS NOTHING TO BBI PARTY. Then in that case he can be kicked out and BBI Party replace him with someone with solid support. Same thing has worked at Jubilee for example.. It's mostly combined TNA and URP. Ruto brings URP side and so does Uhuru bring TNA.
NASA combined Wiper and Ford plus other smaller parties. These are the practical dynamics of Kenyan politics. What you bring onto the table (votes +MPs) determine pecking order. In a Parliamentary system one has to purely depends on number of MPs.
I don't think you get it. The party leader is automatically the PM. MP's don't vote on that. Only change in party leadership changes the PM. If you impeach the PM you go for elections - so it can't be for parochial or corrupt reasons. Donge? Study Israel, UK, Germany, Australia, RSA, name it.
So you see Uhuru only needs to be leader of the registered Handshake coalition. Once he is PM - he can use the power to line up support among those groups you imagine will impeach him. Same as the Handshake now where Ruto is DP with a majority of Jubilee MPs yet can't do anything despite endless matharao.
PM is about accountability - no hiding in State House, explaining and debating publicly and adequately the GoK policies. And separation of power - no assenting/vetoing laws, refusing to swear judges, and abusing deity status to escape scrutiny. In short parliamentary takes away impunity.
PM does not report to the president who is separate head of state - the residual power where mandate rests to avoid vacuum or chaos. All 3 arms of GoK become squarely equal once the state is separated from the Executive.
About influencers and foot soldiers, Ruto's Mt Kenya following is wearing out rapidly. He has zero governors now. 3 or 4 senators - Kihika, Kindiki, Linturi. A place like Kiambu the MCAs firing Waititu and supporting Nyoro indicates Tangatanga lack of influence. Ruto's painstaking clinging onto Uhurutopia or Jubilee unity says alot about his fear of Uhuru influence. Otherwise he would overthrow him in Jubilee with his superior numbers.
As soon as Uhuru 2.0 is formally declared, Ruto will be abandoned heartlessly. Those MPs are unsure about BBI outcome and they are enjoying his handouts. I pity Ruto because he has no control of the wazee. He is at Raila and Uhuru's mercy. There is no magic he can use to beat tried & tested tribalism to beat Uhuru in Mt Kenya. Mlolongo is the biggest blunder of his career.
Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.
Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".
Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....
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I was rebutting to that Mt Kenya MPs are fewer than its popularity. This does not stop the party leader from becoming PM. Jubilee is unable to unsit Uhuru presently.
It is a separate point if or not Uhuru commands the loyalty of Mt Kenya MPs. Presently that's diluted by the presidential powers. Under parliamentary they would be everything and Ruto would not be allowed anywhere near them. He was giving Uhuru presidential power as a red herring for his mlolongo mischief. Kenya is presidential so it was a blunder not an effective coup. You are either the butcher or meat.
Actually i do get it. Very much so. It doesn't matter whether you form your own party or be the leader of some party with Raila. Similar dynamics are at work.
Eg... If Uhuru is chosen to be a leader of say BBI Party and yet at the election his base doesn't support him meaning HE BRINGS NOTHING TO BBI PARTY. Then in that case he can be kicked out and BBI Party replace him with someone with solid support. Same thing has worked at Jubilee for example.. It's mostly combined TNA and URP. Ruto brings URP side and so does Uhuru bring TNA.
NASA combined Wiper and Ford plus other smaller parties. These are the practical dynamics of Kenyan politics. What you bring onto the table (votes +MPs) determine pecking order. In a Parliamentary system one has to purely depends on number of MPs.
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True. Having "fewer" MPs than population is a question of whether representation can be said to be fair (democratic) or not. It doesn't prevent Uhuru being leader of BBI Party or whichever party they form with Raila. However my point is that having fewer MPs behind you then being appointed the leader of a party/coalition negates whole point of a parliamentary system. It's like Labour's Party Leader Corbyn supporting Nicola Sturgeon for PM yet Labour has more MPs.
Second, at the moment if it were a Parliamentary System Ruto would actually unseat Uhuru. He would just withdraw his support and maybe make a deal with ODM and he takes over as PM or we go for elections. That's how dicey parliamentary system is.
I was rebutting to that Mt Kenya MPs are fewer than its popularity. This does not stop the party leader from becoming PM. Jubilee is unable to unsit Uhuru presently.
It is a separate point if or not Uhuru commands the loyalty of Mt Kenya MPs. Presently that's diluted by the presidential powers. Under parliamentary they would be everything and Ruto would not be allowed anywhere near them. He was giving Uhuru presidential power as a red herring for his mlolongo mischief. Kenya is presidential so it was a blunder not an effective coup. You are either the butcher or meat.
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Not so simple. See - the Lib Dems made a deal with the Tories 2010-15 - then they were wiped out. Their base felt betrayed. This was caused by ideological differences. They learnt the lesson and will not do it again.
ODM was the biggest party for a long time - 2008-2017. Raila did not become president. This is because coalitions are based on many factors - ideological differences with URP (liberal vs conservative), competing constituency in non-Gema, domineering personas that conflict, etc. Ruto is very likely to continue to be isolated as he is right now. Noone wants to back anyone who then directly takes over their constituency as Ruto has attempted to do in Mt Kenya. Raila attempted this in Kalenjin 2008-12 and it cost him the presidency. The "big groups" of pastoralists (URP) and the Raila coalition of Luos-Luhya-Mijikenda (ODM) have too many points of conflict. But insular Gema don't threaten your base.
Expect Uhuru to get more offers of coalition than Ruto and Raila combined. Gema insularity is a strength not a weakness.
True. Having "fewer" MPs than population is a question of whether representation can be said to be fair (democratic) or not. It doesn't prevent Uhuru being leader of BBI Party or whichever party they form with Raila. However my point is that having fewer MPs behind you then being appointed the leader of a party/coalition negates whole point of a parliamentary system. It's like Labour's Party Leader Corbyn supporting Nicola Sturgeon for PM yet Labour has more MPs.
Second, at the moment if it were a Parliamentary System Ruto would actually unseat Uhuru. He would just withdraw his support and maybe make a deal with ODM and he takes over as PM or we go for elections. That's how dicey parliamentary system is.
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