The verdict is out, we ran the best campaign in Kenya, thank you for your support. pic.twitter.com/Uq3llsqEzS
— The People’s Watchman (@bonifacemwangi) August 18, 2017
The Starehe Constituency race defies your 'issues' theory.While Kichwa's hypothesis may suffer certain flaws, Boniface Mwangi is a poor specimen and the lab (2017 tujifalangalanga digital) compunds the analysis evenvfurther. Boni has been a thorn in Uhuru's flesh and has a pending court case against Ruto for good measure. IEBC servers don't like such guys and their 34As must be corrected to Wavinya and Rutto standards or worse. If you want specimen, usilete Boni.
Four candidates;
Steve Mbogo- ODM
Boniface Mwangi- Ukweli Party
Kwena- Maendeleo chap chap
Boniface Mwangi started the race with about 200K, he raised 7.8M from the public. It is widely believed he ran the best 'issue based' campaign ever. He embarked on extensive person-to-person campaigning.
Tribe was not a factor as all the three were Okoyu/Embu/GEMA
Bonnie is a clean man, a family guy, his worst blot being sharing porn at Standard way back,about 9yrs ago. He is a highly decorated photojournalist,probably the MOST of his generation, and he is a well known activist who has suffered from the regime.
Jaguar is just a one-hit-wonder who's specialty is running over pedestrians and killing them
Steve Mbogo is a socialite, a rapist, a conman. He worked with Jared the Luo guy who swindled idiots promising to sell them gold.The verdict is out, we ran the best campaign in Kenya, thank you for your support. pic.twitter.com/Uq3llsqEzS
— The People’s Watchman (@bonifacemwangi) August 18, 2017
So why did Bonnie lose, coming at a distant 3rd?
I think the Kenyan voter,while not led by tribe,is as likely to be rational as irrational.
vooke
I said I am having a bit of a problem with this 51%. I have also seen it with 41%. I believe there was a second algorithm. I am still composing a list of the group of 51% and 41%. I can't put my finger on it... but i know there is something
The Starehe Constituency race defies your 'issues' theory.While Kichwa's hypothesis may suffer certain flaws, Boniface Mwangi is a poor specimen and the lab (2017 tujifalangalanga digital) compunds the analysis evenvfurther. Boni has been a thorn in Uhuru's flesh and has a pending court case against Ruto for good measure. IEBC servers don't like such guys and their 34As must be corrected to Wavinya and Rutto standards or worse. If you want specimen, usilete Boni.
Four candidates;
Steve Mbogo- ODM
Boniface Mwangi- Ukweli Party
Kwena- Maendeleo chap chap
Boniface Mwangi started the race with about 200K, he raised 7.8M from the public. It is widely believed he ran the best 'issue based' campaign ever. He embarked on extensive person-to-person campaigning.
Tribe was not a factor as all the three were Okoyu/Embu/GEMA
Bonnie is a clean man, a family guy, his worst blot being sharing porn at Standard way back,about 9yrs ago. He is a highly decorated photojournalist,probably the MOST of his generation, and he is a well known activist who has suffered from the regime.
Jaguar is just a one-hit-wonder who's specialty is running over pedestrians and killing them
Steve Mbogo is a socialite, a rapist, a conman. He worked with Jared the Luo guy who swindled idiots promising to sell them gold.
So why did Bonnie lose, coming at a distant 3rd?
I think the Kenyan voter,while not led by tribe,is as likely to be rational as irrational.
Starehe is easy to rig. People were too busy with Sakaja, Sifuna as well as Kidero and Sonko to notice. IEBC servers are cleverer than most people think. If Boni went to court we may discover very unsavoury things. Again, he suffers the Raila curse or myth. We were once told in one of Boni's campaign meetings, a young girl asked him why he was gunning to join the same Team Mafisi he has been fighting. Was your fight genuine? He could not answer. You know uthamakism birthed the myth that Raila can't win "because we need him in the opposition to check the presidency"? Boni should know.I think you've never participated in any form of elections. A hotly contented seat by equally determined and monied is next to impossible to rig. ODM was watching with hawk eyes over NBO,then Mbogo and Jaguar each had their goons chasing the results right up to the Constituency tallying center. I doubt anyone call pull a heist under such circumstances.
The Starehe Constituency race defies your 'issues' theory.
Four candidates;
Steve Mbogo- ODM
Boniface Mwangi- Ukweli Party
Kwena- Maendeleo chap chap
Boniface Mwangi started the race with about 200K, he raised 7.8M from the public. It is widely believed he ran the best 'issue based' campaign ever. He embarked on extensive person-to-person campaigning.
Tribe was not a factor as all the three were Okoyu/Embu/GEMA
Bonnie is a clean man, a family guy, his worst blot being sharing porn at Standard way back,about 9yrs ago. He is a highly decorated photojournalist,probably the MOST of his generation, and he is a well known activist who has suffered from the regime.
Jaguar is just a one-hit-wonder who's specialty is running over pedestrians and killing them
Steve Mbogo is a socialite, a rapist, a conman. He worked with Jared the Luo guy who swindled idiots promising to sell them gold.The verdict is out, we ran the best campaign in Kenya, thank you for your support. pic.twitter.com/Uq3llsqEzS
— The People’s Watchman (@bonifacemwangi) August 18, 2017
So why did Bonnie lose, coming at a distant 3rd?
I think the Kenyan voter,while not led by tribe,is as likely to be rational as irrational.
I understand by tribal voting is that people vote for someone solely because he is your tribes mate and nothing else. If a kikuyu who voted for Ouru can articulate a reason why he did so other than tribal then I believe him/her. I also know many luos who voted for Raila because of reasons other than tribe.
Kichwa,
The theory is that one can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, how you will vote if they know your tribe. I agree the explanations by the individual voters may be genuine and have nothing to do with tribe. But these explanations by themselves are not as useful as tribe, or even relevant, in predicting how the person will vote.
In the USA one can also predict with a very high degree of certainty how an African American will vote or how a person from Alabama will vote or how a white person with high school education living in the mid west will vote or how a young college educated white woman between will vote etc. Most black people in the US were in the republican party until in the early sixties. It is said that JFK was the first Democrat to carry black votes overwhelmingly. It can also be said that luos or Kikuyu vote the way they do because of the capitalism/socialism battles between Jaramogi and Kenyatta. Many kikuyus still call luos "lazy"-"government dependant" and luos call kikuyus thieves,etc. These are stereotypes developed by the propaganda of both ideologies against each other at that time and we have carried them forward. People can develop ideology because of their history, there region, their religion but you cannot just see the tribe, the religion, the region and refuse to acknowledge the ideology. All this can change and it does not have to be 100 years. Kibaki for example, if he kept the MOU, would have changed things. This is why it is artificial and not tribal and it can change.Kichwa,
The theory is that one can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, how you will vote if they know your tribe. I agree the explanations by the individual voters may be genuine and have nothing to do with tribe. But these explanations by themselves are not as useful as tribe, or even relevant, in predicting how the person will vote.
In the USA one can also predict with a very high degree of certainty how an African American will vote or how a person from Alabama will vote or how a white person with high school education living in the mid west will vote or how a young college educated white woman between will vote etc. Most black people in the US were in the republican party until in the early sixties. It is said that JFK was the first Democrat to carry black votes overwhelmingly. It can also be said that luos or Kikuyu vote the way they do because of the capitalism/socialism battles between Jaramogi and Kenyatta. Many kikuyus still call luos "lazy"-"government dependant" and luos call kikuyus thieves,etc. These are stereotypes developed by the propaganda of both ideologies against each other at that time and we have carried them forward. People can develop ideology because of their history, there region, their religion but you cannot just see the tribe, the religion, the region and refuse to acknowledge the ideology. All this can change and it does not have to be 100 years. Kibaki for example, if he kept the MOU, would have changed things. This is why it is artificial and not tribal and it can change.Kichwa,
The theory is that one can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, how you will vote if they know your tribe. I agree the explanations by the individual voters may be genuine and have nothing to do with tribe. But these explanations by themselves are not as useful as tribe, or even relevant, in predicting how the person will vote.
If Kibaki honored the MOU he would have kept Raila's, and through him, Luo support for the government. Would that mean there was no underlying tribal dynamic? I think it actually confirms the power of that dynamic.
This is a bad example. What I understand by tribal voting is that people vote for someone solely because he is your tribes mate and nothing else. If a kikuyu who voted for Ouru can articulate a reason why he did so other than tribal then I believe him/her. I also know many luos who voted for Raila because of reasons other than tribe. I am not dismissing the fact that some people vote only on tribal reasons only but they are not a majority and therefore the statement that Kenyans vote on tribal lines only is NOT true.The Starehe Constituency race defies your 'issues' theory.
Four candidates;
Steve Mbogo- ODM
Boniface Mwangi- Ukweli Party
Kwena- Maendeleo chap chap
Boniface Mwangi started the race with about 200K, he raised 7.8M from the public. It is widely believed he ran the best 'issue based' campaign ever. He embarked on extensive person-to-person campaigning.
Tribe was not a factor as all the three were Okoyu/Embu/GEMA
Bonnie is a clean man, a family guy, his worst blot being sharing porn at Standard way back,about 9yrs ago. He is a highly decorated photojournalist,probably the MOST of his generation, and he is a well known activist who has suffered from the regime.
Jaguar is just a one-hit-wonder who's specialty is running over pedestrians and killing them
Steve Mbogo is a socialite, a rapist, a conman. He worked with Jared the Luo guy who swindled idiots promising to sell them gold.
So why did Bonnie lose, coming at a distant 3rd?
I think the Kenyan voter,while not led by tribe,is as likely to be rational as irrational.
Omollo:http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0
You and your friends should perhaps take a break from wailing about theft and rigging and whatever and instead focus on "what needs to be done". So far, I have seen little evidence that CORD really learned any lessons from 2013. (I will not repeat my questions on voter registration. Nor will I repeat my prediction that many tears will soon be shed on that front.)
This being Kenya, of course there will be some theft and rigging; so let's accept that as "given". The question, then, is what CORD plans to do about it. (You need not provide an answer here or try to convince us of anything; CORD just needs to get on with it, for its own sake.)
Kenya needs a change, and CORD could be that change. But does CORD have a better plan that it appears to have had at any time in the last few years?
On the narrow point of "cleansing the register": It is amusing that this is suddenly a "hot" issue. If it were up to me, I would have started on the "cleansing" way back in 2013 while at the same time working to have mechanisms in place to ensure that the register stayed "clean" as registration continued.
As I see it, it's very simple:
* Ignore tribe and run on whatever, and losing is almost inevitable.
* Craft a good tribal alliance, and things look pretty good.
Uhuru and Ruto have done well in that:
* The Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance has solid numbers to start with.
* Other sheeple automatically came in from from "affiliate" tribes.
* "Opposition tribes" that do not have strong enough "leaders" will readily surrender some of their members to the seduction of "join us so that you too can eat".
* Incumbency means the power to engage in mischief with the electoral system.
Where does all that leave us?
Do Kenyans care about the "issues"? Quite possibly. But I have earlier given an example here: just compare the number of Kenyans in Nairobi (a city of millions) who will show up for an anti-corruption rally---corruption supposedly a major concern---and those who will show up at a place where a couple is supposedly "stuck".
Education, healthcare, food, .... what are the signs that Kenyans really care about what they get?
Kenyans are going to keep suffering---sometimes through astonishing stupidity, such as spending enormous amounts on laptops for toddlers while begging the rest of the world for food---and it will be so until they have had enough. Then they will be keen on change, just as they were after 25 years (!) of kicks-in-the-teeth/rear-end-tarimbo from Moi.
Kenyans are in their own bizarre "comfort zone", and worrying about change at this point seems to be pointless. Better to focus on "hustling" and "sponsorship" and any other kind of eating.
Where does that leave Raila?
Raila's name is forever imprinted on the face of Kenyan politics. When the dust settles and we reflect on the political transformation of Kenya, Raila's name will be prominent but those of the current power-duo nowhere. Moi will be there, as a serious bastard; but Kibaki, despite his ten years, will get only a footnote for f**king up when he had the chance to really set the country on a new path.
Still, Raila is no longer the energetic firebrand that he use to be. Crowd-performances are one thing, but some things require solid, sustained, dull, ... labour. Raila doesn't have to have that, but he should be mindful of it. That doesn't appear to be (have been) the case.
I have sometimes written on some of these matters, and commented on major misdirections (such as the OKOA thing), .... The True Believers never cared for any of it, but perhaps we can reminisce. Here is something I wrote 7 months ago:QuoteOmollo:http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0 (http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0)
You and your friends should perhaps take a break from wailing about theft and rigging and whatever and instead focus on "what needs to be done". So far, I have seen little evidence that CORD really learned any lessons from 2013. (I will not repeat my questions on voter registration. Nor will I repeat my prediction that many tears will soon be shed on that front.)
This being Kenya, of course there will be some theft and rigging; so let's accept that as "given". The question, then, is what CORD plans to do about it. (You need not provide an answer here or try to convince us of anything; CORD just needs to get on with it, for its own sake.)
Kenya needs a change, and CORD could be that change. But does CORD have a better plan that it appears to have had at any time in the last few years?
On the narrow point of "cleansing the register": It is amusing that this is suddenly a "hot" issue. If it were up to me, I would have started on the "cleansing" way back in 2013 while at the same time working to have mechanisms in place to ensure that the register stayed "clean" as registration continued.
As I see it, it's very simple:
* Ignore tribe and run on whatever, and losing is almost inevitable.
* Craft a good tribal alliance, and things look pretty good.
Uhuru and Ruto have done well in that:
* The Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance has solid numbers to start with.
* Other sheeple automatically came in from from "affiliate" tribes.
* "Opposition tribes" that do not have strong enough "leaders" will readily surrender some of their members to the seduction of "join us so that you too can eat".
* Incumbency means the power to engage in mischief with the electoral system.
Where does all that leave us?
Do Kenyans care about the "issues"? Quite possibly. But I have earlier given an example here: just compare the number of Kenyans in Nairobi (a city of millions) who will show up for an anti-corruption rally---corruption supposedly a major concern---and those who will show up at a place where a couple is supposedly "stuck".
Education, healthcare, food, .... what are the signs that Kenyans really care about what they get?
Kenyans are going to keep suffering---sometimes through astonishing stupidity, such as spending enormous amounts on laptops for toddlers while begging the rest of the world for food---and it will be so until they have had enough. Then they will be keen on change, just as they were after 25 years (!) of kicks-in-the-teeth/rear-end-tarimbo from Moi.
Kenyans are in their own bizarre "comfort zone", and worrying about change at this point seems to be pointless. Better to focus on "hustling" and "sponsorship" and any other kind of eating.
Where does that leave Raila?
Raila's name is forever imprinted on the face of Kenyan politics. When the dust settles and we reflect on the political transformation of Kenya, Raila's name will be prominent but those of the current power-duo nowhere. Moi will be there, as a serious bastard; but Kibaki, despite his ten years, will get only a footnote for f**king up when he had the chance to really set the country on a new path.
Still, Raila is no longer the energetic firebrand that he use to be. Crowd-performances are one thing, but some things require solid, sustained, dull, ... labour. Raila doesn't have to have that, but he should be mindful of it. That doesn't appear to be (have been) the case.
I have sometimes written on some of these matters, and commented on major misdirections (such as the OKOA thing), .... The True Believers never cared for any of it, but perhaps we can reminisce. Here is something I wrote 7 months ago:QuoteOmollo:http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0
You and your friends should perhaps take a break from wailing about theft and rigging and whatever and instead focus on "what needs to be done". So far, I have seen little evidence that CORD really learned any lessons from 2013. (I will not repeat my questions on voter registration. Nor will I repeat my prediction that many tears will soon be shed on that front.)
This being Kenya, of course there will be some theft and rigging; so let's accept that as "given". The question, then, is what CORD plans to do about it. (You need not provide an answer here or try to convince us of anything; CORD just needs to get on with it, for its own sake.)
Kenya needs a change, and CORD could be that change. But does CORD have a better plan that it appears to have had at any time in the last few years?
On the narrow point of "cleansing the register": It is amusing that this is suddenly a "hot" issue. If it were up to me, I would have started on the "cleansing" way back in 2013 while at the same time working to have mechanisms in place to ensure that the register stayed "clean" as registration continued.
Its the egg and chicken which came first all over again. The tribal alliances needs an issue to bring them together and not the other way round. I believe its the ICC that brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together in 2013 and then they were bonded by the power of incumbency and political interdependency for power retention after that. The NASA coalition was bonded by those who felt marginalized or left out. Everything in Kenya can be explained in tribal terms.
Its the egg and chicken which came first all over again. The tribal alliances needs an issue to bring them together and not the other way round. I believe its the ICC that brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together in 2013 and then they were bonded by the power of incumbency and political interdependency for power retention after that. The NASA coalition was bonded by those who felt marginalized or left out. Everything in Kenya can be explained in tribal terms.
Exactly. Mostly. Some minor aspects can be explained in terms of uncontrolled individual greed and such-like simple psychopathy. But, even then, always with tribe for cover. Got caught stealing a billion or two from the youth? Just appeal to our people, and move on to "bigger and better" things. And so on, and so forth. Kazi iendelee.
Anyways .... to my mind .... much better to directly tackle the tribal elephant, instead of hoping that merely wishing it away will work.
Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility when there are better explanations which leads to hope.
Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
MoonKi- I have a lot of respect to your different approach to this issue and I wish you had the same for us. Even with Global warming people disagree about the "real causes" and the right approach.
In Kenyan I believe that things can change and therefore we campaigned believing we could win. I also believe we won in more than one ways. I still think this country is worth fighting for and the opposition must never give up. There are people who supported NASA who are talking about not ever voting again but that is normal at this time and hopefully they will change their minds. We are going to court now and if we do not win then we keep on fighting. Those who are sitting on the fence or those who believe they can never lose and are laughing at us can continue to do so but giving up is not an option for some of us. I have lived long enough to appreciate that some struggles take a long time. Some African Americans are still fighting for their rights even after a black president and Africans are still fighting for their rights even after the colonialists left. I never underestimated our enemy at anytime and I am NOT totally shocked with how things turned out-the rigging.. Let us just agree to disagree and move on.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility when there are better explanations which leads to hope.
That's like saying that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it in terms of problems that one thinks one can solve; that way people don't give up if the problems look too hard. I, on the other hand, would think that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it terms of its real causes, whatever they might be, and then work on solutions. Have you reflected on all your pre-election claims and statements? Still, good luck with your approach.
Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them. That is the difference.TautologyWhether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them. That is the difference.TautologyWhether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'
As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity
Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances. I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022 with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other. Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue" split the kikuyu vote. I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuuYou are not saying anything.No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them. That is the difference.TautologyWhether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'
As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity
Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances. I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022 with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other. Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue" split the kikuyu vote. I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuuYou are not saying anything.No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them. That is the difference.TautologyWhether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'
As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity
Predicting whether Kambas will be in NASA in 2022 may be premature now, but you can bet Kambas will almost to man follow their leaders to whatever coalition they will lead them. Inability to predict this does not take away Tribe from the equation while adding 'issues'.
2002 Kambas voted for Kibaki because their leaders led them to him
2007 they voted alone for Kalonzo because he was on the ballot
2013 they voted Baba because Kalonzo led the, to Baba
2017 they voted Baba again because Kalonzo led them to Baba
2022 they will vote largely or to man for whoever their leaders will lead them
That's tribalism/homeboy mentality/tribalizing issues.....pick the vocabulary but the fact remains. Pundito may not tell you NOW how they will vote,but he can predict they will cast their lots with their leaders their 'issues' not withstanding.
Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.
Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.
Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.
You lost me somewhere. Kichwa has his views, which he freely expresses here. Others have different views, which they freely express here. As far as I can tell, all views are "entertained". Should Kichwa's "rigidity" in his views be considered superior to the "rigidity" in other views? If not, then we should see it as no more than people expressing different views and disagreeing. It's not as though anyone is trying to "convert" Kichwa. Or is the idea that those who don't agree with him should simply shut up?
I am saying that Kenyans do not vote based on tribe alone and the evidence is overwhelming.
You are the one who is confused. The reason why it is premature for you to predict how Kambas or Luos or Luhyias or Kisii's or Kikuyus will vote in 2022 is because you do not know what the issues will be.Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances. I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022 with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other. Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue" split the kikuyu vote. I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuuYou are not saying anything.No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them. That is the difference.TautologyWhether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same. It must start with some issue then you tribalize it. The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized. Uhuru and Ruto found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it. All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight. Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that how one choses to explains things is important. For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose. However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only leads to apathy and defeat. I do not therefore see its utility vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.
It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.
You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.
This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'
As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity
Predicting whether Kambas will be in NASA in 2022 may be premature now, but you can bet Kambas will almost to man follow their leaders to whatever coalition they will lead them. Inability to predict this does not take away Tribe from the equation while adding 'issues'.
2002 Kambas voted for Kibaki because their leaders led them to him
2007 they voted alone for Kalonzo because he was on the ballot
2013 they voted Baba because Kalonzo led the, to Baba
2017 they voted Baba again because Kalonzo led them to Baba
2022 they will vote largely or to man for whoever their leaders will lead them
That's tribalism/homeboy mentality/tribalizing issues.....pick the vocabulary but the fact remains. Pundito may not tell you NOW how they will vote,but he can predict they will cast their lots with their leaders their 'issues' not withstanding.
my view on this issue is far from rigid because I am saying that Kenyans do not vote based on tribe alone and the evidence is overwhelming. Both Ouru's votes and Raila's votes exceed the number of Kikuyu and Luo registered voters. There are also kikuyus who voted for Raila and Luos who voted for Ouru. The rigidity lies in the argument that Kenyans vote on tribe alone- Period.
I wasn't even talkin about you. Sheesh!Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.
You lost me somewhere. Kichwa has his views, which he freely expresses here. Others have different views, which they freely express here. As far as I can tell, all views are "entertained". Should Kichwa's "rigidity" in his views be considered superior to the "rigidity" in other views? If not, then we should see it as no more than people expressing different views and disagreeing. It's not as though anyone is trying to "convert" Kichwa. Or is the idea that those who don't agree with him should simply shut up?