Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on July 23, 2017, 09:30:25 PM
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Here are some gems:
Uhuru gets 13% from Kakamega! How about you just give him the 2% he got in the last elections. I can comfortably tell you that Uhuru may get more votes in Homa Bay than Kakamega. That is the town which did what the Russians did to Napoleon - just vanished and made Uhuru so mad he stood up for two minutes to threaten Senator Khalwale leaving.
I know Washiali has cheated you guys. I simply asked you to do one test before giving more money to Washiali: Ask him to hold ONE public rally in Kakamega without the massive security that the Deputy President comes with!
Dr. Kulundu joined Kibaki after the referendum despite being asked to quit. He would henceforth never hold a single rally in Kakamega (his own constituency covered the town) until he left parliament and later died.
Khalwale himself learned to listen to his people: They burnt down his splitting new Prado in town in broad daylight. You Pundit do not know Kakamega.
The police don't dare go arrest Chang'aa people anywhere in Kakamega. They write a letter and respectfully have it delivered to the chief so the suspect can come voluntarily to the police station. That is why the major supplier of chang'aa to Nairobi is Kakamega.
Uhuru cannot get more than he got last time. If anything they have made arrangements to deny him that 2%
so if you are honest make the changes I suggest and we compare.
Next Kilifi
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Kilifi is a NASA zone and the vote has increased. Though turnout was suppressed Raila got 83% of the vote against 10% for Uhuru.
I can concede and say fine let Uhuru keep his 10% but no more. Make it 11%.
There is nothing Uhuru has done over there that would give him 30'% vote bro. Pay attention to indicators such as the loss of Malindi by election which was supposed to prove that Kilfi has shifted.
Son of Chief, Mung'aro has not conducted any campaigns there waiting until Uhuru or Ruto comes so he checks out of his hotel room for a short while. Kambi Kazungu is campaigning for NASA.
The attempt to smear Kingi that he has stolen backfired when three Kikuyus were charged after pressure. The other attempt to "launch" county projects backfired. People in Kilifi may not be that educated but because of their knowledge of Swahili, they are highly informed.
Please give the same as last elections but keep this in mind: Raila will hit 90% this time. But for the MOAS change to 85 vs 11 ( am adding Mudavadi's votes)
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I notice that you now believe Raila will lose Garissa. Here is disagree. To reverse a NASA majority 49% to 37% is a bit of a stretch? Did Raila massacre students there? Did he rape anybody?
All the attempts to undermine the NASA gubernatorial leadership failed. Had the governor realized that NASA has no support he would have accepted the money and defected as he was being told.
Today the Kamba vote is very organized. The man is in fact now in Wiper. Again in my opinion Garissa is going NASA by 68% to Uhuru's 14%. The police killing of the youth under Uhuru rose. It is an albatross that continues to this day. One would have thought they would ask the killer squads to wait until after elections. They continue and Garissa has borne the brunt of the killings which have no extended to Mandera where an MPs mother was kidnapped by KDF and found in a shallow grave.
Compromise: Keep last election's figures ; Uhuru = 45% Raila = 49%
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Kitu
Why do you think Uhuru will get more votes in Kitui without Ngilu than with Ngilu?
The propaganda about Musila quitting and joining Jubilee is dead and actually never occurred. Mr. Pimple Face (Nyenze) has as much influence as Magerer had in 2013. He may not even hold his seat. Kitui is unified against Jubilee. It is Kalonzo's home.
One of the polls showed that Kalonzo is more popular than Ruto and is a much greater asset to his running mate than Ruto is to Uhuru. Have you considered that?
I will grant Uhuru 5% and 95% to RailaLonzo
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Kajiado
Again we have the Kilifi situation where you out of nowhere give Jubilee numbers it has not earned. Here I have evidence to support my view that ODM will carry Kajiado again: The Nkaissery by-election. ODM won against state machinery. Why would it not win again?
Then you walked in to a trap you created. When the issue of land came up, you should have buried it. Instead you raised it. If Raila is on one side, which side are you? I remember laughing until I coughed in one conference call. Jubilee were played like a guitar. In fact it has helped NASA in Narok.
So why do you give Uhuru 54% ( 2% more than last election). If you keep the same figures and add Mudavadi's to Raila I can concur. However for the actual figures NASA will wallop Jubilee by 60 - 40
For now I accept 52% Uhuru to 45% Raila.
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Please Bungoma is NASA and there is no way on earth that Uhuru will score 33%.
Let me use a historical explanation to see if I can persuade you
in 1992 Shikuku ran an insurgent campaign to be Presidential candidate for FORD People. He lost but retreated to Western and campaigned hard almost wiping out KANU. Luhyas voted for Ken Matiba.
The following election Matiba was out but then those votes did not transfer to Kibaki. They went to Kijana Wamalwa.
Please Eugene is no Kijana.
Uhuru will probably get the Sabaot votes - not more than 30K and that is all. If you give him 7% I would not fight. Raila gets 91% in Bungoma
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Continue laughing and let's see who will have the final laughter.Final MOAS is final.I am not changing anything unless something big happens.For each of those counties I have keenly analyzed several factors and arrived at those conclusion.
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If Ouru were to win, it would NOT because of MOAS but most likely because he rigged. You have a problem understanding the difference between causation/correlation. If It rains a couple times you visit Bomet, you will probably argue strenuously to your folks that you are the rainman.
Continue laughing and let's see who will have the final laughter.Final MOAS is final.I am not changing anything unless something big happens.For each of those counties I have keenly analyzed several factors and arrived at those conclusion.
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Yeah Moas is free rigging scheme...Uhuru will use it to rig.You are just frustrated coz tribal maths which the overriding factor in our elections don't favor Jakom
If Ouru were to win, it would NOT because of MOAS but most likely because he rigged. You have a problem understanding the difference between causation/correlation. If It rains each time you visit Bomet you will probably argue strenuously to your Bomet folks that you are the rainman.
Continue laughing and let's see who will have the final laughter.Final MOAS is final.I am not changing anything unless something big happens.For each of those counties I have keenly analyzed several factors and arrived at those conclusion.
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What is it with this Pundit's MOAS that it is provoking thread after thread?
This is not an opinion poll so comparing it with infotrack is absurdity.
Methinks MOAS is so accurate and in the heart of hearts of some niggas they know it
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I am not frustrated at all, infact I feel very well were we are. We have the momentum according to all the polls and we have two weeks to Nane. Its during this time when the undecided move and they usually more with the candidate with momentum.
Yeah Moas is free rigging scheme...Uhuru will use it to rig.You are just frustrated coz tribal maths which the overriding factor in our elections don't favor JakomIf Ouru were to win, it would NOT because of MOAS but most likely because he rigged. You have a problem understanding the difference between causation/correlation. If It rains each time you visit Bomet you will probably argue strenuously to your Bomet folks that you are the rainman.
Continue laughing and let's see who will have the final laughter.Final MOAS is final.I am not changing anything unless something big happens.For each of those counties I have keenly analyzed several factors and arrived at those conclusion.
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I know-its voodoo
What is it with this Pundit's MOAS that it is provoking thread after thread?
This is not an opinion poll so comparing it with infotrack is absurdity.
Methinks MOAS is so accurate and in the heart of hearts of some niggas they know it
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The sad part the fucker Bagdad Bob believes in that tribalism crap. I understand the man has to eat and feed his bastard daughter but at what cost? The kind of pure tribal hatred that's propagated by the so called pundit is troubling........
I know-its voodoo
What is it with this Pundit's MOAS that it is provoking thread after thread?
This is not an opinion poll so comparing it with infotrack is absurdity.
Methinks MOAS is so accurate and in the heart of hearts of some niggas they know it
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Go back to choo.com. I know it pains you greatly that Raila is not making to PORK - but relax - UhuRuto are just about started. You'll need lot more shock absorbers.
The sad part the fucker Bagdad Bob believes in that tribalism crap. I understand the man has to eat and feed his bastard daughter but at what cost? The kind of pure tribal hatred that's propagated by the so called pundit is troubling........
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Uhuru will score some votes in 4 const; Matungu, Mumias East, Mumias West and Navokholo - Jubilee will win 2 or 3 seats - around that area - although Jubilee has some more mps supporting them in Kakamega including Khawale Mp's in Ikolomani - I think Jubilee support will be restricted to Wanga around Mumias who have mumias sugar issue with Raila-Kidero. Therefore I am adding Jubilee 3% to 13%.
Here are some gems:
Uhuru gets 13% from Kakamega! How about you just give him the 2% he got in the last elections. I can comfortably tell you that Uhuru may get more votes in Homa Bay than Kakamega. That is the town which did what the Russians did to Napoleon - just vanished and made Uhuru so mad he stood up for two minutes to threaten Senator Khalwale leaving.
I know Washiali has cheated you guys. I simply asked you to do one test before giving more money to Washiali: Ask him to hold ONE public rally in Kakamega without the massive security that the Deputy President comes with!
Dr. Kulundu joined Kibaki after the referendum despite being asked to quit. He would henceforth never hold a single rally in Kakamega (his own constituency covered the town) until he left parliament and later died.
Khalwale himself learned to listen to his people: They burnt down his splitting new Prado in town in broad daylight. You Pundit do not know Kakamega.
The police don't dare go arrest Chang'aa people anywhere in Kakamega. They write a letter and respectfully have it delivered to the chief so the suspect can come voluntarily to the police station. That is why the major supplier of chang'aa to Nairobi is Kakamega.
Uhuru cannot get more than he got last time. If anything they have made arrangements to deny him that 2%
so if you are honest make the changes I suggest and we compare.
Next Kilifi
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Uhuru will definitely improve in Kilifi - and I have seen opinion polls put Uhuru at 25% plus with lots of undecided. In fact western and Kilifi has the most undecided of votes. This will be thanks to Mungaro & group.
Kilifi is a NASA zone and the vote has increased. Though turnout was suppressed Raila got 83% of the vote against 10% for Uhuru.
I can concede and say fine let Uhuru keep his 10% but no more. Make it 11%.
There is nothing Uhuru has done over there that would give him 30'% vote bro. Pay attention to indicators such as the loss of Malindi by election which was supposed to prove that Kilfi has shifted.
Son of Chief, Mung'aro has not conducted any campaigns there waiting until Uhuru or Ruto comes so he checks out of his hotel room for a short while. Kambi Kazungu is campaigning for NASA.
The attempt to smear Kingi that he has stolen backfired when three Kikuyus were charged after pressure. The other attempt to "launch" county projects backfired. People in Kilifi may not be that educated but because of their knowledge of Swahili, they are highly informed.
Please give the same as last elections but keep this in mind: Raila will hit 90% this time. But for the MOAS change to 85 vs 11 ( am adding Mudavadi's votes)
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The 2% extra percent was because Jubilee won over Gen Nkaissery (who is now dead). I think Raila screwed the third largest grp in Kajiado- Gusii - when he made incendiary remarks. So I am sticking with those figures. Note - Maasa are probably less than 40% of Kajiado - Kikuyus about the same - so if Uhuru wins Ole Lenku maasai - and add to his kikuyus - he will already be at 50%.
Kajiado
Again we have the Kilifi situation where you out of nowhere give Jubilee numbers it has not earned. Here I have evidence to support my view that ODM will carry Kajiado again: The Nkaissery by-election. ODM won against state machinery. Why would it not win again?
Then you walked in to a trap you created. When the issue of land came up, you should have buried it. Instead you raised it. If Raila is on one side, which side are you? I remember laughing until I coughed in one conference call. Jubilee were played like a guitar. In fact it has helped NASA in Narok.
So why do you give Uhuru 54% ( 2% more than last election). If you keep the same figures and add Mudavadi's to Raila I can concur. However for the actual figures NASA will wallop Jubilee by 60 - 40
For now I accept 52% Uhuru to 45% Raila.
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The is a reason why Kalonzo is visting Kitui every often. Iko shida. Nyenze-Musila-and several mps in Jubilee - will surely retain 15% jubilee got thro Ngilu. I will default to opinion pollsters here - if you have any. It's an homogeneous county.
Kitu
Why do you think Uhuru will get more votes in Kitui without Ngilu than with Ngilu?
The propaganda about Musila quitting and joining Jubilee is dead and actually never occurred. Mr. Pimple Face (Nyenze) has as much influence as Magerer had in 2013. He may not even hold his seat. Kitui is unified against Jubilee. It is Kalonzo's home.
One of the polls showed that Kalonzo is more popular than Ruto and is a much greater asset to his running mate than Ruto is to Uhuru. Have you considered that?
I will grant Uhuru 5% and 95% to RailaLonzo
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Actually Uhuru might do better than that. He got 12% in 2013 mainly thanks to Mt Elgon Sabaots. MaDVD got 31%. I believe the maDVD vote comes from NFK brigade. The entire NFK brigade moved to Jubilee...and therefore best case scenario is for Uhuru gets 41%...but I am going with 33%. I expect Jubilee to do well in Bungoma and Tranzoia thanks to NFK brigade.
Please Bungoma is NASA and there is no way on earth that Uhuru will score 33%.
Let me use a historical explanation to see if I can persuade you
in 1992 Shikuku ran an insurgent campaign to be Presidential candidate for FORD People. He lost but retreated to Western and campaigned hard almost wiping out KANU. Luhyas voted for Ken Matiba.
The following election Matiba was out but then those votes did not transfer to Kibaki. They went to Kijana Wamalwa.
Please Eugene is no Kijana.
Uhuru will probably get the Sabaot votes - not more than 30K and that is all. If you give him 7% I would not fight. Raila gets 91% in Bungoma
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Here is synovate Ipos - Western and Coast - should particularly worry NASA - it shows significant in-roads that Jubilee has made. Of course NEP is all but gone to Jubilee.
http://www.ipsos.co.ke/report_downloads/downloads.php?dir=polls&file=Ipsos_KE_SPEC%20Poll_Press%20Release%20Presentation_%2023rd%20July%202017.pdf
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If you prefer Ambithologoy --which got RV totally wrong in my view - but everything else seem to agree with Synovate.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFbeedeW0AIOiqH.jpg:large)
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Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe
Go back to choo.com. I know it pains you greatly that Raila is not making to PORK - but relax - UhuRuto are just about started. You'll need lot more shock absorbers.
The sad part the fucker Bagdad Bob believes in that tribalism crap. I understand the man has to eat and feed his bastard daughter but at what cost? The kind of pure tribal hatred that's propagated by the so called pundit is troubling........
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Bla bla de bla....bleating goat.
Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe
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Wow my day is ruined because some tribalist yahoo perched somewhere in Mavoko slums with 5 acres in Mau forest called me a bleating goat.....you got jokes....you are a fucking tribalist begging to be euthanized.
Bla bla de bla....bleating goat.
Fortunately unlike you my fortune is not pegged on some political figure. You are fucking tribalist and it's such a shame that people torelate you here in the name of 'intellectual discourse'. The kind of tribal hate that you propagate is worst than German nazi or kkk chapter...until you show some ability to respect yourself no respect from this end. Nyangau wewe
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I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.
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Make absolutely senses. You do your own and lets us meet at night of 8th and review. Of course you need to accept the results as they come - don't claim rigging and all sort of conspiracy unless you have incontrovertible evidence that can stand some serious tests.
I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.
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If
1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)
I will accept any result.
I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).
I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.
Make absolutely senses. You do your own and lets us meet at night of 8th and review. Of course you need to accept the results as they come - don't claim rigging and all sort of conspiracy unless you have incontrovertible evidence that can stand some serious tests.
I will continue with this later and since you won't revise your MOAS, I will then revise it or simply give my figures.
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2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.
Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did 2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.
The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.
We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.
If
1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)
I will accept any result.
I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).
I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.
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Pundit you are on record rigging happens though you tend to mention only Homa Bay and Mandera. Is rigging adequately factored in your MOASS?
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Yeap suspiciously high turn out in homabay n mandera are propagated coz I have no cold evidence that this happened.I have only increased turn out in coast to match national average because mrc is not a factor having died off.
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Of course manual voting can be free and fair. That is not the claim. The claim is that manual voting is easy to rig. 2002, 2005 and 2010 were fair because nobody tried to rig them and Raila's side won. 2007 and 2013 were rigged and "Raila lost". This does not mean Raila cannot lose a free and fair elections, but it means, manual elections are easy to rig.
2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.
Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did 2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.
The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.
We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.
If
1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)
I will accept any result.
I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).
I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.
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Of course manual voting can be free and fair. That is not the claim. The claim is that manual voting is easy to rig. 2002, 2005 and 2010 were fair because nobody tried to rig them and Raila's side won. 2007 and 2013 were rigged and "Raila lost". This does not mean Raila cannot lose a free and fair elections, but it means, manual elections are easy to rig.
2002 was manual, 2005, 2010 and many manual elections have been found to be free, fair and credible. A rigged election just smells. There is no way to hide the stench.2013 was not rigged. I believe this election will not be rigged. But if it will be rigged we will know...because it not easy to pull rigging in a free democratic nation like kenya...with free media, thousands of observers, party agents, social media, mobile communication.
Personally I believe we will know the winner after 2% of the votes is in - electronic transmission - if they come in randomly from all over the country.That would be exit poll. 2013 we did 2%--30% - and after 100% - the percentages should never change.
The idiots in CORD and KANU (Kericho) thought it was some geometric progression rigging - that increased Uhuru votes - while not realizing that if results are randomly coming in - they will reflect the total voting population - basic stats 101- unless the distribution is not normal.
We will know the results of election by 9pm on 8th.
If
1. the elections are held electronically as envisaged with the 98% being identified by EVIDs;
2. There is no breakdown or unexplained outages of the results / results system
3. no "manual option" is employed at any given stage
4. no KDF, GSU, Police or other forces are deployed to suppress turnout (as envisaged by Operation Matiangi)
I will accept any result.
I am not bothered about the extra ballots which are already at Embakasi. The dangers of remote voting are reduced considerably. The brines Consolata ate to arrange for certificates for losers is now a Jubilee
problem; The NIS is aware that any rigging will plunge the country inn to a decade long crisis ( I hope Kameru has stopped his side of the plan).
I believe they are encouraged by the tightening of the polls to let go of some of the plans.
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Correct. Manual is easier to rig. But that's not the point; point is manual can be free and fair. In other words, manual =/= rigging contrary to NASWA brigade
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What is the debate here really?
If you leave a leopard together with a goat, the chances of finding the goat eaten increase by whatever percentage Pundit can drop above 90%
However if you put a reinforced glass between them and probably ensure the leopard is well fed, the chances of finding your goat dead decrease to 0.
BTW electronic systems can be hacked and rigged or sabotaged as we saw in 2007 and 2013. As KM says, if there are persons intent on rigging they would do it. It is just that the manual system becomes easier to rig.
In the current voting MANUAL = RIGGING why?
Because the register is already contaminated with double registrations (regardless of tribe - to avoid predictable equivalence). Asked about why the suspected entries were not removed the IEBC stated that it did not wish to disenfranchise genuine voters and that voting will be done by voters being identified biometrically.
That for the record only reduces the possible cheating because underage persons or foreigners can vote if the ID is no longer required or if it is faked.
However where EVIDs are not employed, and already we have been told not to worry about ID cards, it needs no monkey brain to see that we shall have have vote stuffing.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
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Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
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Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.
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Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.
The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.
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Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.
The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.
You are right. Still some sort of proportional thing is going to be demanded sooner or later. Especially if Jubilee wins.
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Wrong. Your proposal would create a US-like scenario where deep red or -blue states are ignored. Our current system is better. If you require majority in 24 counties and retain the 50%+1 requirement you just guarantee a rerun which beats your purpose.
There are some proposals I will be working on after we win:
1. Presidential Elections winner must get a majority of the votes in Majority of the counties (in this case 24).
2. Dispense with the popular vote.
This will force candidates to care about all counties.
I would take 1) and make the winner also require a popular vote victory.
The highly likely rerun will make 1)moot, which amounts to wastage of resources.
You are right. Still some sort of proportional thing is going to be demanded sooner or later. Especially if Jubilee wins.
This 'equity' was demanded and granted first as parliamentary system and 30% devolution -- which was watered down to pure presidency (with 50%+1 & 25% of 24 counties) and 15% devolution. In discussions here earlier we floated 40% devolution (US, Germany) which Jubilee already claims to do at 34%. You can't have full federalism in tiny Kenya because you end up with 47 systems and struggle with fresh issues like US common core (education) or eminent domain (property) or even religious conflict. Parliamentary democracy looks like a safer bet in a heterogeneous tiny country - SA & UK for instance.
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Keep the system as is longer before changing it.