Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 01, 2025, 09:32:04 AM
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For more read my tweets.
This is a status report of Ruto’s strength across Kenya, excluding known ODM-strong counties like Luo Nyanza, part of Western, Coast .
Ruto strong in Kalenjin+17 pastoral counties - having upstaged Raila.
Ruto still share votes with Raila in other areas like coast+western.
Ruto is dead amongst Kikuyus.
He might be doing 30% with Weak Kindiki in Mt kenya East.
Overally he needs 12% more votes - Raila can deliver that easily.
Kalonzo would bring in 10% - and Ruto has to work hard elsewhere.
https://x.com/Bygones_24/status/1939604581400322241/photo/1
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Mt Kenya East you are dreaming. GEMA yote will vote RiggyG - Ruto and Raila are back to fighting for non-GEMA. 2012 redux.
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Essentially, DCP is the new TNA.
Prof Herman Manyora is telling you RiggyG has replaced Raila as the face of the opposition.
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This was 2 seconds ago:
Kindiki cant keep DPORK - Bus, DP, Jubilee & Munya PNU all against Ruto
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=17505.0
Kiraitu's 'Bus' party joins Gachagua's camp in push to unseat Ruto in 2027
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-06-18-kiraitus-bus-party-joins-gachaguas-camp
Remove the GEMA numbers that leaves Ruto with 33% in the 3-leg tripod.
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Well I gave Kindiki 30% of Meru & 40% Embu - and 80% of his Tharaka.
You're saying he is totally useless.
I dont think so.
I dont see MPs following Rigathi around.
Let see by -election in Mbeere.
If Ruto totally loses Meru/Embu/Tharaka -and get 5% - when he fires Kindiki
He comes down to 36% of the registered votes - he'll need Kalonzo 10% - then work on turnout game to close 4% - that is assuming he is running against Raila.
Kindiki right now is only as useful as about to be used tissue paper - 2%.
Anyway with ODM with Ruto - and unless kikuyu-Luo reconcile somewhere in 2024 and all agree to back Raila- then we have battle - Ruto is sleepwalking to 2027
Mt Kenya East you are dreaming. GEMA yote will vote RiggyG - Ruto and Raila are back to fighting for non-GEMA. 2012 redux.
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Dont make me PUKE - I dont listen to this fool
Essentially, DCP is the new TNA.
Prof Herman Manyora is telling you RiggyG has replaced Raila as the face of the opposition.
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I removed all GEMA :) - including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.
Murima bado - DCP will not take even half of it.
Rigathi si not running.
I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.
Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora
This was 2 seconds ago:
Kindiki cant keep DPORK - Bus, DP, Jubilee & Munya PNU all against Ruto
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=17505.0
Kiraitu's 'Bus' party joins Gachagua's camp in push to unseat Ruto in 2027
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-06-18-kiraitus-bus-party-joins-gachaguas-camp
Remove the GEMA numbers that leaves Ruto with 33% in the 3-leg tripod.
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Kenya ni ile ile, GEMA ni wale wale.
TNA was launched few months to elections and everyone joined. Leaving GNU, Narc-K sijui KNC.
Kindiki or Mbarire or Ruku is Kosgeys, Magerer and Sirma in RV 2012.
Ichung'wa is worse than JJ Kamotho or Tuju.
I removed all GEMA :) - including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.
Murima bado - DCP will not take even half of it.
Rigathi si not running.
I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.
Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora
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Ruto has so many loyal GEMA people. As long as he maintains Kina KaWanjiku Kimani Ichungwa, Kikuyu elders in his pocket, pastors and church crew, Gema coffee farmers, Waigurus & Kihikas, he will easily scope 20% of the vote even if Riggy G is running. If no Kikuyu candidate is Running, he will scope 30%+ in the mountain. Kalonzo has assured him of 100% of Kamba if he can make him deputy! In the end it seems Raila will be the king maker. If he endorses Ruto, it will be an easy path, but if Raila endorse opposition candidate, or run on his own, then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!
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Kenya ni ile ile, GEMA ni wale wale.
TNA was launched few months to elections and everyone joined. Leaving GNU, Narc-K sijui KNC.
Kindiki or Mbarire or Ruku is Kosgeys, Magerer and Sirma in RV 2012.
Ichung'wa is worse than JJ Kamotho or Tuju.
I removed all GEMA :) - including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.
Murima bado - DCP will not take even half of it.
Rigathi si not running.
I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.
Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora
uhuru once he won Ruto had chance...gachagua is ticket to where when impeached
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Ruto has so many loyal GEMA people. As long as he maintains Kina KaWanjiku Kimani Ichungwa, Kikuyu elders in his pocket, pastors and church crew, Gema coffee farmers, Waigurus & Kihikas, he will easily scope 20% of the vote even if Riggy G is running. If no Kikuyu candidate is Running, he will scope 30%+ in the mountain. Kalonzo has assured him of 100% of Kamba if he can make him deputy! In the end it seems Raila will be the king maker. If he endorses Ruto, it will be an easy path, but if Raila endorse opposition candidate, or run on his own, then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!
I agree. Many Kikuyu n Meru will realize it not worth going on mortal dead combat with Ruto. It's 5yrs. Ruto is doubling down. I think he will get 30% too...once it becomes obvious it better to sue peace. Kindiki Wil retain. If not Odm takes it. Ruto will win bigly 2027.
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Hafana haja ya kuvote tuko na sistem 😂😂
then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!
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I agree. Many Kikuyu n Meru will realize it not worth going on mortal dead combat with Ruto. It's 5yrs. Ruto is doubling down. I think he will get 30% too...once it becomes obvious it better to sue peace. Kindiki Wil retain. If not Odm takes it. Ruto will win bigly 2027.
RiggyG and Meru is akin to Ruto and Nandi or Kipsigis. His mother and wife are Meru. This time even Meru local seats might go DCP.
Without knowing Raila plan I agree Ruto option is Kamba. RiggyG is already ahead there with "cousins" :) - which a ruse to 1. make it hard for Kalonzo to join Ruto and 2. kill off Mutuas and Muthamas.
For now I agree it's 36% with Ruto vs Raila vs Kalonzo.
Sanitize your MOAS forthwith by getting rid of 2 things: Kindiki and Muhoho.