Mid term MOASS - Ruto at 38% without Raila & Murima

[RV Pundit]

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This is a status report of Ruto’s strength across Kenya, excluding known ODM-strong counties like Luo Nyanza, part of Western, Coast .

Ruto strong in Kalenjin+17 pastoral counties - having upstaged Raila.
Ruto still share votes with Raila in other areas like coast+western.
Ruto is dead amongst Kikuyus.
He might be doing 30% with Weak Kindiki in Mt kenya East.

Overally he needs 12% more votes - Raila can deliver that easily.
Kalonzo would bring in 10% - and Ruto has to work hard elsewhere.

https://x.com/Bygones_24/status/1939604581400322241/photo/1

[Nefertiti]

Mt Kenya East you are dreaming. GEMA yote will vote RiggyG - Ruto and Raila are back to fighting for non-GEMA. 2012 redux.

[Nefertiti]

Essentially, DCP is the new TNA.

Prof Herman Manyora is telling you RiggyG has replaced Raila as the face of the opposition.

[Nefertiti]

This was 2 seconds ago:

Kindiki cant keep DPORK - Bus, DP, Jubilee & Munya PNU all against Ruto
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=17505.0

Kiraitu's 'Bus' party joins Gachagua's camp in push to unseat Ruto in 2027
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-06-18-kiraitus-bus-party-joins-gachaguas-camp

Remove the GEMA numbers that leaves Ruto with 33% in the 3-leg tripod.

[RV Pundit]

Well I gave Kindiki 30% of Meru & 40% Embu - and 80% of his Tharaka.
You're saying he is totally useless.
I dont think so.
I dont see MPs following Rigathi around.
Let see by -election in Mbeere.

If Ruto totally loses Meru/Embu/Tharaka -and get 5% - when he fires Kindiki

He comes down to 36% of the registered votes - he'll need Kalonzo 10% - then work on turnout game to close 4% - that is assuming he is running against Raila.

Kindiki right now is only as useful as about to be used tissue paper - 2%.

Anyway with ODM with Ruto - and unless kikuyu-Luo reconcile somewhere in 2024 and all agree to back Raila- then we have battle - Ruto is sleepwalking to 2027

Mt Kenya East you are dreaming. GEMA yote will vote RiggyG - Ruto and Raila are back to fighting for non-GEMA. 2012 redux.

[RV Pundit]

Dont make me PUKE - I dont listen to this fool

Essentially, DCP is the new TNA.

Prof Herman Manyora is telling you RiggyG has replaced Raila as the face of the opposition.

[RV Pundit]

I removed all GEMA -  including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.

Murima bado -  DCP will not take even half of it.

Rigathi si not running.

I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.

Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora

This was 2 seconds ago:

Kindiki cant keep DPORK - Bus, DP, Jubilee & Munya PNU all against Ruto
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=17505.0

Kiraitu's 'Bus' party joins Gachagua's camp in push to unseat Ruto in 2027
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-06-18-kiraitus-bus-party-joins-gachaguas-camp

Remove the GEMA numbers that leaves Ruto with 33% in the 3-leg tripod.

[Nefertiti]

Kenya ni ile ile, GEMA ni wale wale.

TNA was launched few months to elections and everyone joined. Leaving GNU, Narc-K sijui KNC.
Kindiki or Mbarire or Ruku is Kosgeys, Magerer and Sirma in RV 2012.

Ichung'wa is worse than JJ Kamotho or Tuju.

I removed all GEMA -  including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.

Murima bado -  DCP will not take even half of it.

Rigathi si not running.

I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.

Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto has so many loyal GEMA people. As long as he maintains Kina KaWanjiku Kimani Ichungwa, Kikuyu elders in his pocket, pastors and church crew, Gema coffee farmers, Waigurus & Kihikas, he will easily scope 20% of the vote even if Riggy G is running. If no Kikuyu candidate is Running, he will scope 30%+ in the mountain. Kalonzo has assured him of 100% of Kamba if he can make him deputy! In the end it seems Raila will be the king maker. If he endorses Ruto, it will be an easy path, but if Raila endorse opposition candidate, or run on his own, then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!

[RV Pundit]

Kenya ni ile ile, GEMA ni wale wale.

TNA was launched few months to elections and everyone joined. Leaving GNU, Narc-K sijui KNC.
Kindiki or Mbarire or Ruku is Kosgeys, Magerer and Sirma in RV 2012.

Ichung'wa is worse than JJ Kamotho or Tuju.

I removed all GEMA -  including diaspora - Ruto will be hapo - 36%.

Murima bado -  DCP will not take even half of it.

Rigathi si not running.

I think they are headed to split - 2-3-4 ways. Many people cant stand the impeached Rigathi. They will run to Jubilee and back Matiangi or Muhoho. Those in Mt kenya east will use all small parties.

Kindiki and Ruto I wont write them off completely 2yrs to the game. Esp in Mt kenya East and Kikuyu diaspora

uhuru once he won Ruto had chance...gachagua is ticket to where when impeached

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has so many loyal GEMA people. As long as he maintains Kina KaWanjiku Kimani Ichungwa, Kikuyu elders in his pocket, pastors and church crew, Gema coffee farmers, Waigurus & Kihikas, he will easily scope 20% of the vote even if Riggy G is running. If no Kikuyu candidate is Running, he will scope 30%+ in the mountain. Kalonzo has assured him of 100% of Kamba if he can make him deputy! In the end it seems Raila will be the king maker. If he endorses Ruto, it will be an easy path, but if Raila endorse opposition candidate, or run on his own, then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!

I agree. Many Kikuyu n Meru will realize it not worth going on mortal dead combat with Ruto. It's 5yrs. Ruto is doubling down. I think he will get 30% too...once it becomes obvious it better to sue peace. Kindiki Wil retain. If not Odm takes it. Ruto will win bigly 2027.

[gout]

Hafana haja ya kuvote tuko na sistem 😂😂

then Ruto will win by 50%+1 because that is the default outcome of Ruto's IEBC and Supreme Court and Government infrastructure. Wether people Kithni or ndekni, the outcome is predetermined!

[Nefertiti]

I agree. Many Kikuyu n Meru will realize it not worth going on mortal dead combat with Ruto. It's 5yrs. Ruto is doubling down. I think he will get 30% too...once it becomes obvious it better to sue peace. Kindiki Wil retain. If not Odm takes it. Ruto will win bigly 2027.

RiggyG and Meru is akin to Ruto and Nandi or Kipsigis. His mother and wife are Meru. This time even Meru local seats might go DCP.

Without knowing Raila plan I agree Ruto option is Kamba. RiggyG is already ahead there with "cousins" - which a ruse to 1. make it hard for Kalonzo to join Ruto and 2. kill off Mutuas and Muthamas.

For now I agree it's 36% with Ruto vs Raila vs Kalonzo.

Sanitize your MOAS forthwith by getting rid of 2 things: Kindiki and Muhoho.

[RV Pundit]

I agree. Many Kikuyu n Meru will realize it not worth going on mortal dead combat with Ruto. It's 5yrs. Ruto is doubling down. I think he will get 30% too...once it becomes obvious it better to sue peace. Kindiki Wil retain. If not Odm takes it. Ruto will win bigly 2027.

RiggyG and Meru is akin to Ruto and Nandi or Kipsigis. His mother and wife are Meru. This time even Meru local seats might go DCP.

Without knowing Raila plan I agree Ruto option is Kamba. RiggyG is already ahead there with "cousins" - which a ruse to 1. make it hard for Kalonzo to join Ruto and 2. kill off Mutuas and Muthamas.

For now I agree it's 36% with Ruto vs Raila vs Kalonzo.

Sanitize your MOAS forthwith by getting rid of 2 things: Kindiki and Muhoho.

We are watching....Ruto definitely has void he needs to fill....I am not ruling kindiki. Meru n Mt Kenya east to give up deputy president n 2032 chance sounds dumb but going by how dumb Njuri Njeke normally is...kindiki is at 2% now. At best he gives Ruto 5% to hit 40%. Ruto would still need to work on 10%. So hii kindiki look unsalvageable. It's better kalonzo if Uhuru snatches Raila. If Raila n Ruto combined we don't need to do MOASS

[Kadudu]

Sometimes you write here as if you were born yesterday.

1/2 years to the elections you think MPs throw their cards on the table? Wait for 6 months to the elections and that is when you will know where the MPs stand. As of now Ruto is in trouble. His only chance is trying to improve the economic situation for Kenyans. Backing on Raila is a joke. If not even 60% of Luo Nyanza voted when Raila was on the ballot, how can you bank on more than 50% of Luo Nyanza voting for Ruto?

Anyway, as of Western being an ODM background, that is now part of history.

Well I gave Kindiki 30% of Meru & 40% Embu - and 80% of his Tharaka.
You're saying he is totally useless.
I dont think so.
I dont see MPs following Rigathi around.
Let see by -election in Mbeere.

If Ruto totally loses Meru/Embu/Tharaka -and get 5% - when he fires Kindiki

He comes down to 36% of the registered votes - he'll need Kalonzo 10% - then work on turnout game to close 4% - that is assuming he is running against Raila.

Kindiki right now is only as useful as about to be used tissue paper - 2%.

Anyway with ODM with Ruto - and unless kikuyu-Luo reconcile somewhere in 2024 and all agree to back Raila- then we have battle - Ruto is sleepwalking to 2027

[Nefertiti]

We are watching....Ruto definitely has void he needs to fill....I am not ruling kindiki. Meru n Mt Kenya east to give up deputy president n 2032 chance sounds dumb but going by how dumb Njuri Njeke normally is...kindiki is at 2% now. At best he gives Ruto 5% to hit 40%. Ruto would still need to work on 10%. So hii kindiki look unsalvageable. It's better kalonzo if Uhuru snatches Raila. If Raila n Ruto combined we don't need to do MOASS

At least you have seen the light on Muhoho and Jubilee. 99% of Kikuyus cannot identify Muhoho in a lineup  - much less the non-Kikuyus.

On Kindiki your analysis is faulty. You think Meru are stupid to give up a real shot at PORK in 2032 via Kindiki.
You forget:
1. Kindiki is not Meru. He is from mkia sub-tribe Tharaka, which is even outranked by Nithi. In sub-tribe hierarchy: Imenti then Igembe then Tigania then Nithi then Tharaka then non-Gema aliens. Meru will not follow Tharaka dwarf for the same reason Kikuyu will not follow a Meru. Customs & traditions.
2. Even if Kindiki was a proper Meru, he lacks the political skill to become PORK in 2032 or ever. Meru can see this is an impotent academic who could not even become governor in his home county. Why should the Meru follow a Tharaka loser?
3. RiggyG is half-Meru ergo more "Meru" than Kindiki. Additionally he is cunning and adept enough to round up not just Gema but Kambas, Gusii, Maa, etc. While Kindiki was being saved by Ruto from atrocious dog-beating by Muthomi Njuki in the governor race, Riggy was running circles on Uhuru and is now giving Ruto the same medicine.

In short Meru are not stupid, they are smart. Yours is a jaundiced view.

[RV Pundit]

Kindiki look hopeless unless he was getting Mt Kenya East and RV diaspora. If for little Meru votes you writting acres of Inshas I dont see how he retain DPORK. Ruto will have to give it to Kalonzo or ODM.

When I give Ruto 90% in all 3 mt Kenya east - he improves to 41%!  - minus the diaspora if they are many - maybe 42-43%
I give Ruto 5% - if they fire the Mbilikimo - Ruto reduces to 36%

So essentially Mt kenya East is 5% - Kambas from Kalonzo- 41% - but might have large diaspora -> 44-45% - Ruto will need to work hard for 5% - easy job.

Ruto plan A now should be Nail Raila -> Nail Kalonzo -> work magic with Kindiki - he would need to get to 45% - then Mbilikimo delivers 5%

We are watching....Ruto definitely has void he needs to fill....I am not ruling kindiki. Meru n Mt Kenya east to give up deputy president n 2032 chance sounds dumb but going by how dumb Njuri Njeke normally is...kindiki is at 2% now. At best he gives Ruto 5% to hit 40%. Ruto would still need to work on 10%. So hii kindiki look unsalvageable. It's better kalonzo if Uhuru snatches Raila. If Raila n Ruto combined we don't need to do MOASS

At least you have seen the light on Muhoho and Jubilee. 99% of Kikuyus cannot identify Muhoho in a lineup  - much less the non-Kikuyus.

On Kindiki your analysis is faulty. You think Meru are stupid to give up a real shot at PORK in 2032 via Kindiki.
You forget:
1. Kindiki is not Meru. He is from mkia sub-tribe Tharaka, which is even outranked by Nithi. In sub-tribe hierarchy: Imenti then Igembe then Tigania then Nithi then Tharaka then non-Gema aliens. Meru will not follow Tharaka dwarf for the same reason Kikuyu will not follow a Meru. Customs & traditions.
2. Even if Kindiki was a proper Meru, he lacks the political skill to become PORK in 2032 or ever. Meru can see this is an impotent academic who could not even become governor in his home county. Why should the Meru follow a Tharaka loser?
3. RiggyG is half-Meru ergo more "Meru" than Kindiki. Additionally he is cunning and adept enough to round up not just Gema but Kambas, Gusii, Maa, etc. While Kindiki was being saved by Ruto from atrocious dog-beating by Muthomi Njuki in the governor race, Riggy was running circles on Uhuru and is now giving Ruto the same medicine.

In short Meru are not stupid, they are smart. Yours is a jaundiced view.

[RV Pundit]

Kumbe Kumbe you're not capable of being objective to analyse politics. We have been doing these things. Bye

Sometimes you write here as if you were born yesterday.

1/2 years to the elections you think MPs throw their cards on the table? Wait for 6 months to the elections and that is when you will know where the MPs stand. As of now Ruto is in trouble. His only chance is trying to improve the economic situation for Kenyans. Backing on Raila is a joke. If not even 60% of Luo Nyanza voted when Raila was on the ballot, how can you bank on more than 50% of Luo Nyanza voting for Ruto?

Anyway, as of Western being an ODM background, that is now part of history.

Well I gave Kindiki 30% of Meru & 40% Embu - and 80% of his Tharaka.
You're saying he is totally useless.
I dont think so.
I dont see MPs following Rigathi around.
Let see by -election in Mbeere.

If Ruto totally loses Meru/Embu/Tharaka -and get 5% - when he fires Kindiki

He comes down to 36% of the registered votes - he'll need Kalonzo 10% - then work on turnout game to close 4% - that is assuming he is running against Raila.

Kindiki right now is only as useful as about to be used tissue paper - 2%.

Anyway with ODM with Ruto - and unless kikuyu-Luo reconcile somewhere in 2024 and all agree to back Raila- then we have battle - Ruto is sleepwalking to 2027

[Nefertiti]

So you see your Kagame/Meles has meagre 36% despite his incumbency.

It a three-horse race as-is right now, we are looking at a run-off.

The star of the moment is RiggyG.

Kindiki look hopeless unless he was getting Mt Kenya East and RV diaspora. If for little Meru votes you writting acres of Inshas I dont see how he retain DPORK. Ruto will have to give it to Kalonzo or ODM.

When I give Ruto 90% in all 3 mt Kenya east - he improves to 41%!  - minus the diaspora if they are many - maybe 42-43%
I give Ruto 5% - if they fire the Mbilikimo - Ruto reduces to 36%

So essentially Mt kenya East is 5% - Kambas from Kalonzo- 41% - but might have large diaspora -> 44-45% - Ruto will need to work hard for 5% - easy job.

Ruto plan A now should be Nail Raila -> Nail Kalonzo -> work magic with Kindiki - he would need to get to 45% - then Mbilikimo delivers 5%

[RV Pundit]

Kagame/Meles technically has 65%- because ODM is right inside and I dont think Raila want to go for another contest.

We are working on worst case scenario. Just in case Raila bolts out last minute - assuming Uhuru/Muhoho wakes up from the dead - he aint waking up.

Otherwise ODM wako Ndani ya Sirikali with wakina Mutua in Statehouse - and Raila has said he cannot talk to Gathietha.

RiggyG Mt Kenya dont like Raila nor Ruto - so wako na shida..

Meanwhile RUto is going to be eating ODM pole pole - while keeping baba happy. Naona tayari Hassan Joho is playing is own game outside ODM

So you see your Kagame/Meles has meagre 36% despite his incumbency.

It a three-horse race as-is right now, we are looking at a run-off.

The star of the moment is RiggyG