Dream on,looks like you are running senile,Radio Africa poll set to be released this week,Baba is ahead,leading in 6 out of 8 former provinces.Don't expect experienced political player like them to consume their own propaganda.NIS has budget to do 100,000 survey that is very accurate...hiyo ndio they listen to..At stake for them sio pride like us..it's billions of their wealth...they have too much to lose
When I tell you 30% is the magic number in central,you think am high on mursik, Tell Ruto to read the 48 laws of power again.
We also have access to those NIS polls,as a matter of fact,just seen one a few minutes ago.mtashangaa
2013 and 2018 were different ball games,players have changed ,we now have Raila ,Ruto duel,you cannot hold all factors constant the way you do,dynamics are different,come on Pundito,
Now you are talking,the only omission which I know you are doing intentionally is the luhya,Raila still has Luo,Kamba,Luhya, Coast,Nairobi,Maa and Kisii.Now factor the 30% Uhuru votes from gema and you see you are in trouble.This is about 2 million.The percentage of luhya votes that he us loosing is insignificant,about 20% which is about 300K, not enough to make any big difference.
Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This us no ricket science
Even if they pay 5B, they should forget forgiveness from DP. From 2018 to recently, Uhuru used all state power to hurt DP and his friends financially. I don't see the way DP will let that go. Yes, he will take all their money in exchange of forgiveness but he will not honor it. DP doesn't forgive period!
Let me make it simple for you,Give Raila 55% Nairobi,30% central,55% Eastern,55% western,65% coast,80% Nyanza,27% RV, and 60% NE.Total in absolute numbers is 8.5M.
Even if they pay 5B, they should forget forgiveness from DP. From 2018 to recently, Uhuru used all state power to hurt DP and his friends financially. I don't see the way DP will let that go. Yes, he will take all their money in exchange of forgiveness but he will not honor it. DP doesn't forgive period!
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila ?
Then again why use provinces as a measure when they no longer exist in Kenyan constitution. Try using Counties and you will see how Raila has already lost .
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>I thought Ruto said he can defeat Raila any day? Now his stooge Ekuru Aukot is telling us that Ruto is only safe when Raila is barred from vying for the Presidency? pic.twitter.com/TeLT4oP6Z2
— Robert ALAI, HSC (@RobertAlai) April 11, 2022
You and me know what happened in NE,specifically Mandera,let's not go there,fact is Raila is beating Ruto in NE.Eastern it was almost 50:50 but now that we are looking at 30% in gema nation,we may squeeze about 300K votes in Meru, Tharaka 👰,Embu,isiolo to add to 1 million plus kamba votes which gives us the 55%.About provinces,it doesn't make a difference whether you use counties or former provinces,just collate the county data into provinces.This is the easiest election Raila has ever had since 1997.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science
When we say you are of low IQ, si kwa ubaya. The question of how NE will vote for 2022 was settled in Feb 2022. NE voting patterns are different from your normal voting block because it is clan-based/controlled.
Where were you in Feburary when all NE parties joined Azimio?
Boost for Raila as Yatani's party backs his presidential bid (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-23-boost-for-raila-as-yatanis-party-backs-his-presidential-bid/)
Governor Roba leads Northern leaders in joining Azimio (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-02-09-governor-roba-leads-northern-leaders-in-joining-azimio/)
Here you are quoting what happened 5 years ago. A day in politics my friend is a long time. 5 years?
Don't ask again on this forum why Mizani and members here are giving NE to Raila. You are wasting our time, when we could be debating something else. Nkt.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science
Raila is loosing western,specifically Bungoma by about 20% and Kakamega by about 10%.Thats a fact that we are alive to,the difference here is that this marginal loss in Bungoma and Kakamega translated into real votes is about 300K,vis a vis the marginal gain of 30% in gema which translates to about 1.5M.Net effect is that Raila us gaining more than Ruto.Had Ruto ran away with the entire western,then that's a different story.For example Raila starts with 80% Busia,which is about 300k votes,he gets 50% vihiga which is another 100K,He gets 60% Kakamega which is about 300K,then he gets 40% Bungoma which is about 200K.In total this is 900K.This is a drop of about 400K from 2018.This is the most realistic scenario in western Kenya.Raila will get 0.9K,Ruto will add 300K votes to what Uhuru got to make it 600K.
When we say you are of low IQ, si kwa ubaya. The question of how NE will vote for 2022 was settled in Feb 2022. NE voting patterns are different from your normal voting block because it is clan-based/controlled.
Where were you in Feburary when all NE parties signed up to Azimio?
Boost for Raila as Yatani's party backs his presidential bid (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-23-boost-for-raila-as-yatanis-party-backs-his-presidential-bid/)
Governor Roba leads Northern leaders in joining Azimio (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-02-09-governor-roba-leads-northern-leaders-in-joining-azimio/)
Here you are quoting what happened 5 years ago. A day in politics my friend is a long time. 5 years?
Don't ask again on this forum why Mizani Africa and members here are giving NE to Raila. You are wasting our time, when we could be debating something else. Nkt.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science
You are back to they are playing Raila wishful thinking. Giddy has always won senator easy-peasy- with few Pokots nTugen - nothing changes. Uhuru is pragmatic and has access so no surprises. He is duly informed and picked Raila over "trustworthy" Ruto. So much for your punditry.
The wayward characters remain Kalonzo-Mdvd - at least we can see Kalonzo buyer's remorse as katikati dream dies. Delusional Mdvd probably still thinks there will be some "equals" agreement - before names are submitted - akin to 2012 with Uhuru. More likely next you will have Mdvd eruptions as Azimio milk his KK raw deal - once Ruto unveil Gachagua.
Opinion polls are showing 50:50 generally when it come to presidential vote. When it come to governors - Jubilee - has upper hand.When we say you are of low IQ, si kwa ubaya. The question of how NE will vote for 2022 was settled in Feb 2022. NE voting patterns are different from your normal voting block because it is clan-based/controlled.
Where were you in Feburary when all NE parties joined Azimio?
Boost for Raila as Yatani's party backs his presidential bid (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-23-boost-for-raila-as-yatanis-party-backs-his-presidential-bid/)
Governor Roba leads Northern leaders in joining Azimio (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-02-09-governor-roba-leads-northern-leaders-in-joining-azimio/)
Here you are quoting what happened 5 years ago. A day in politics my friend is a long time. 5 years?
Don't ask again on this forum why Mizani and members here are giving NE to Raila. You are wasting our time, when we could be debating something else. Nkt.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science
No, not a single the presidential poll says North Eastern is 50-50. An opinion poll that puts Raila at 50% only means 50% have made up their minds. Such a poll by default does not confer the other 50 to any his competitor, because at this point in the election cycle, there are still a sizable number of undecided. Below find Mizani Africa a month agoOpinion polls are showing 50:50 generally when it come to presidential vote. When it come to governors - Jubilee - has upper hand.When we say you are of low IQ, si kwa ubaya. The question of how NE will vote for 2022 was settled in Feb 2022. NE voting patterns are different from your normal voting block because it is clan-based/controlled.
Where were you in Feburary when all NE parties joined Azimio?
Boost for Raila as Yatani's party backs his presidential bid (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-23-boost-for-raila-as-yatanis-party-backs-his-presidential-bid/)
Governor Roba leads Northern leaders in joining Azimio (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-02-09-governor-roba-leads-northern-leaders-in-joining-azimio/)
Here you are quoting what happened 5 years ago. A day in politics my friend is a long time. 5 years?
Don't ask again on this forum why Mizani and members here are giving NE to Raila. You are wasting our time, when we could be debating something else. Nkt.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science
Counties make provinces which eventually add up to national tally,,so there should be no differencemy Nandi brothers.Hii kitu imeenda
Doesnt warrant a reply. Stupidity at its best....When we say you are of low IQ, si kwa ubaya. The question of how NE will vote for 2022 was settled in Feb 2022. NE voting patterns are different from your normal voting block because it is clan-based/controlled.
Where were you in Feburary when all NE parties signed up to Azimio?
Boost for Raila as Yatani's party backs his presidential bid (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-23-boost-for-raila-as-yatanis-party-backs-his-presidential-bid/)
Governor Roba leads Northern leaders in joining Azimio (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-02-09-governor-roba-leads-northern-leaders-in-joining-azimio/)
Here you are quoting what happened 5 years ago. A day in politics my friend is a long time. 5 years?
Don't ask again on this forum why Mizani Africa and members here are giving NE to Raila. You are wasting our time, when we could be debating something else. Nkt.
Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila?Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This is no rocket science