For how long will Uhuru & Gideon resist handshake with Ruto

[RV Pundit]

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Their political calculation according to me have misfired
Uhuru has pretty much been abandoned by Mt Kenya
Gideon Moi is basically a pariah in Kalenjin land.
NIS must be telling them that man from Sugoi is very popular.
They know Ruto will crash them when he wins.
They know if they make peace now - and each contribute 5B kshs to Ruto kitty - Ruto will forgive them.
If they wait until Ruto wins - they will have no political leverage to strike a deal.
The prize of forgiveness - will triple beyond 20B each - in Ruto gov.
They know they are guilty as charged for moving Ruto cheese after he did donkey work to get power.

I still predict that Uhuru and Gideon will either publicly or privately shake hands.

All indicators are that Uhuru and Gideon are folding camp - cleaning up - and their lackeys know it's gone.

Dr Nancy Gitau ameshindwa kazi.
Desperate Kibicho the engineer lecturer is doing kalongo longo in Kirinyanga that experienced politician like Uhuru must find irritating.
The message from remaining Jubilee members is simple - we support Jubilee but we wont sell Raila.
Uhuru cannot force anyone anymore.

As we speak the DPP has announced CEASEFIRE - nobody will be thrown to jail even if they cart away money in broad daylight.
That wariah must be really scared to make such an illegal boneheaded declaration.

Matiangi and company are now eating humble pie - few months from thinking he could be presidential candidate

[Pajero]

Dream on,looks like you are running senile,Radio Africa poll set to be released this week,Baba is ahead,leading in 6 out of 8 former provinces.

[RV Pundit]

Dream on,looks like you are running senile,Radio Africa poll set to be released this week,Baba is ahead,leading in 6 out of 8 former provinces.

Don't expect experienced political player like them to consume their own propaganda.NIS has budget to do 100,000 survey that is very accurate...hiyo ndio they listen to..At stake for them sio pride like us..it's billions of their wealth...they have too much to lose

[Pajero]

We also have access to those NIS polls,as a matter of fact,just seen one a few minutes ago.mtashangaa

[Pajero]

When I tell you 30% is the magic number in central,you think am high on mursik, Tell Ruto to read the 48 laws of power again.

[RV Pundit]

Is this the same song of Oil and Water dont mix remix you kept singing before 2013.

When I tell you 30% is the magic number in central,you think am high on mursik, Tell Ruto to read the 48 laws of power again.

[Nowayhaha]

Lol so you are in NIS now....

We also have access to those NIS polls,as a matter of fact,just seen one a few minutes ago.mtashangaa

[Pajero]

2013 and 2018 were different ball games,players have changed ,we now have Raila ,Ruto duel,you cannot hold all factors constant the way you do,dynamics are different,come on Pundito,

[RV Pundit]

Nothing much has changed.
At the core Ruto candidate is still RV+GEMA at it's core
Raila candidate is still Luo+Kamba at it core.
Raila has gained few; Raila has lost a few;
Ruto has gained few; RUto has lost a few;
End of day - we back to the usual 45 versus 55%
There is no surprise.
You gain 30% of Mt kenya (let us grant that ) and you lose 30% of Non-GEMA (Western, Coast, ukamabani, matusa)

In short - there has been much change in MOASS - since 2013 - same same configuration - with little twist

2017 - you got maDVD to joined NASA - but Jubilee also gained from Non-GEMA (20-30% on average) - Jubilee extend it 1M gap to 1.5m

2022 - same same thing - hapo tu 51-55 percent versus 43-47 percent

2013 and 2018 were different ball games,players have changed ,we now have Raila ,Ruto duel,you cannot hold all factors constant the way you do,dynamics are different,come on Pundito,

[Pajero]

Now you are talking,the only omission which I know you are doing intentionally is the luhya,Raila still has Luo,Kamba,Luhya, Coast,Nairobi,Maa and Kisii.Now factor the 30% Uhuru votes from gema and you see you are in trouble.This is about 2 million.The percentage of luhya votes that he us loosing is insignificant,about 20% which is about 300K, not enough to make any big difference.

[RV Pundit]

Voodo maths. Refer to MOASS for in-depth well researched analysis on where each has gained and lost. Once you do the maths - you will realize that - this election is not any different from 2013/2017- Raila siphyean curse continues - he gains here - and loses here. He could have become PORK if he had CONSOLIDATED NASA before opening new front.

Rather than engaging in voodoism - take 2017 county results - and play around plausible scenarios - know the tribal configuration - and share.

Now you are talking,the only omission which I know you are doing intentionally is the luhya,Raila still has Luo,Kamba,Luhya, Coast,Nairobi,Maa and Kisii.Now factor the 30% Uhuru votes from gema and you see you are in trouble.This is about 2 million.The percentage of luhya votes that he us loosing is insignificant,about 20% which is about 300K, not enough to make any big difference.

[Pajero]

Let me make it simple for you,Give Raila 55% Nairobi,30% central,55% Eastern,55% western,65% coast,80% Nyanza,27% RV, and 60% NE.Total in absolute numbers is 8.5M.

[Pajero]

Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in  coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This us no ricket science

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Even if they pay 5B, they should forget forgiveness from DP. From 2018 to recently, Uhuru used all state power to hurt DP and his friends financially. I don't see the way DP will let that go. Yes, he will take all their money in exchange of forgiveness but he will not honor it. DP doesn't forgive period!

[Nowayhaha]

Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila ?
Then again why use provinces as a measure when they no longer exist in Kenyan constitution. Try using Counties and you will see how Raila has already lost  .

Ruto will just perform the way Uhuru performed in 2018 but this time round,gema votes will reduce significantly.He will not beat Raila in  coast,western,Nairobi,Nyanza, Eastern,NE.This us no ricket science

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto has a soft spot for Uhuru. He will let him be , as for Raila I dont think so.

Even if they pay 5B, they should forget forgiveness from DP. From 2018 to recently, Uhuru used all state power to hurt DP and his friends financially. I don't see the way DP will let that go. Yes, he will take all their money in exchange of forgiveness but he will not honor it. DP doesn't forgive period!

[RV Pundit]

Get excel - of counties - and share - including projected turnout. Dont just throw numbers carelessly

Let me make it simple for you,Give Raila 55% Nairobi,30% central,55% Eastern,55% western,65% coast,80% Nyanza,27% RV, and 60% NE.Total in absolute numbers is 8.5M.

[RV Pundit]

Kenyans want them finished - so nobody will cry to them

Even if they pay 5B, they should forget forgiveness from DP. From 2018 to recently, Uhuru used all state power to hurt DP and his friends financially. I don't see the way DP will let that go. Yes, he will take all their money in exchange of forgiveness but he will not honor it. DP doesn't forgive period!

[RV Pundit]

Precisely he is hidding under province - so he can make wild guestimates - which no longer exist.

Uhuru won in Eastern and North Eastern. So if Ruto will perform the same way Uhuru did in 2017 why are you giving those Provinces to Raila ?
Then again why use provinces as a measure when they no longer exist in Kenyan constitution. Try using Counties and you will see how Raila has already lost  .

[Pajero]

You and me know what happened in NE,specifically Mandera,let's not go there,fact is Raila is beating Ruto in NE.Eastern it was almost 50:50 but now that we are looking at 30% in gema nation,we may squeeze about 300K votes in Meru, Tharaka 👰,Embu,isiolo to add to 1 million plus kamba votes which gives us the 55%.About provinces,it doesn't make a difference whether you use counties or former provinces,just collate the county data into provinces.This is the easiest election Raila has ever had since 1997.